Everything baseball and a little more. http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca Thu, 29 Jul 2010 08:11:37 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.2 http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca/images/M_images/joomla_rss.png http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca Everything baseball and a little more. http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=255&Itemid=26 But I think Yahoo (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=300703110) is laying it on a little thick: Article - 2010 Sat, 03 Jul 2010 13:21:46 +0100 http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=254&Itemid=26 All-Star voting is done. Did you vote? Did you vote more than once? Did you use your 20 email addresses to vote 500 times? As I understand it, there are now 34 players on each roster. One of the complaints that you hear every year is about the rule that each team must have a representative. I think this is pretty much a non- issue, for two reasons: The All-Star Game is an exhibition for the sport/business/product; I think it's reasonable that an exhibition should have representatives from every team in the league; There are now 34 freaking roster spots; anyone complaining about the Baltimore Orioles getting a representative is complaining about a roster spot that didn't exist two years ago. While we breathlessly await the results, here's an attempt at picking 68 players and not screwing up too badly: CA Joe Mauer isn't having his best year, but he's still obviously the premier catcher in the AL. 1B Justin Morneau is the obvious choice, leading the league in OPS, though the competition is very strong: Miguel Cabrera, Kevin Youkilis and Paul Konerko all having great seasons, while Billy Butler might be KC's best player. The struggling Mark Teixeira did well in voting but looks like he will come up short. 2B I think Robinson Cano is the MVP of the American League to this point. The only second sacker who's even close to him is Dustin Pedroia, who's on the DL. 3B Evan Longoria leads voting, and has probably been the best, although Adrian Beltre is very close and that A-Rod guy has been pretty good too. SS Derek Jeter leads voting, and should be the starter. He's having an off-year, but no shortstop in the AL is having an All-Star calibre season so what are you going to do. OF It appears that Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki and Josh Hamilton are going to start, and that's a pretty good group. You could make cases for Brennan Boesch or David DeJesus or Alex Rios or Shin-Soo Choo, but I'm not going to be petulant about it; no outfielder is an MVP canadidate at this point. DH Vlad the Impaler leads the league in RBI, and is the Duh choice here. The complete roster, then: 1B Justin Morneau (MIN) 1B Kevin Youkilis (BOS) 1B Miguel Cabrera (DET) 2B Robinson Cano (NYY) 2B Dustin Pedroia (BOS) Ty Wigginton (BAL) 3B Evan Longoria (TBR) 3B Adrian Beltre (BOS) 3B Alex Rodriguez (NYY) SS Derek Jeter (NYY) SS Alex Gonzalez (TOR) IF Mike Young (TEX) CA Joe Mauer (MIN) CA Mike Napoli (LAA) DH Vladimir Guerrero (TEX) OF Carl Crawford (TBR) OF Alex Rios (CHW) OF Josh Hamilton (TEX) OF Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) OF Shin-Soo Choo (CLE) OF Brennan Boesch (DET) OF David DeJesus (KCR) SP David Price (TBR) SP Jered Weaver (LAA) SP Andy Pettitte (NYY) SP Ricky Romero (TOR) SP Jeff Niemann (TBR) SP Jon Lester (BOS) SP C.C. Sabathia (NYY) SP Cliff Lee (SEA) SP Francisco Liriano (MIN) RP Jose Valverde (DET) RP Neftali Feliz (TEX) RP Andy Bailey (OAK) RP Mariano Rivera (NYY) Over in the National League, CA The bad news is that it appears that Yadier Molina will start, despite an awful year the plate. The good news is that nobody is really going to get screwed; Miguel Olivo, who's having a wonderful year for Colorado, will likely be picked as a reserve, and there's no one else who screams All-Star . 1B Albert Pujols leads in voting, and is among the leaders in all three Triple Crown categories. You can make a case that Adrian Gonzalez has been even better, but it's not worth getting worked up about. Joey Votto has also been awesome; it's been a great year for first basemen in both leagues. 2B Chase Utley has been the best and leads voting; he also has a torn ligament in this thumb, which means that either batting average leader Martin Prado or the Reds' Brandon Phillips will probably start. 3B Despite what you might read or hear in New York, David Wright is really, really good. He may or may not get voted in as the starter, but it's irrelevent because Placido Polanco's on the DL. Scott Rolen and Ryan Zimmerman are also having wonderful seasons. SS Hanley Ramirez is leading the vote, and with Troy Tulowitzki on the DL with a broken wrist is pretty obviously the top choice. Rafael Furcal may have played himself on to the team with an awesome June. OF Ryan Braun, Andre Ethier and Jason Heyward have been voted in. Heyward's on the DL and won't play; he should be replaced by someone who can play centre field, probably Jayson Werth. Lots of other guys are having fine years, including Matt Holliday, Andrew McCutchen, Colby Rasmus, Angel Pagan and Josh Willingham. 1B Albert Pujols (STL) 1B Adrian Gonzalez (SDP) 1B Joey Votto (CIN) 2B Chase Utley (PHI) Martin Prado (ATL) 2B Brandon Phillips (CIN) 3B David Wright (NYM) 3B Scott Rolen (CIN) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (WSN) SS Hanley Ramirez (FLA) SS Troy Tulowitzki (COL) Rafael Furcal (LAD) IF Kelly Johnson (ARI) CA Miguel Olivo (COL) CA Brian McCann (ATL) CA Nick Hundley (SDP) DH Andre Ethier (LAD) OF Andrew McCutchen (PIT) OF Jayson Werth (PHI) OF Angel Pagan (NYM) OF Colby Rasmus (STL) OF Corey Hart (MIL) OF Josh Willingham (WSN) SP Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) SP Josh Johnson (FLA) SP Roy Halladay (PHI) SP Yovani Gallardo (MIL) SP Adam Wainwright (STL) SP Chris Carpenter (STL) SP Tim Hudson (ATL) SP Roy Oswalt (HOU) SP Tim Lincecum (SFG) SP Mike Pelfrey (NYM) RP Carlos Marmol (CHC) RP Billy Wagner (ATL) RP Francisco Rodriguez (NYM) Article - 2010 Fri, 02 Jul 2010 06:42:17 +0100 http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=253&Itemid=26 I'm someone who watches baseball - a lot. Since the World Cup started, I've watched dozens of hours of baseball, and only about two minutes of bumblebeeball. So, I become intrigued when I start reading and hearing repeated claims that the game is changing dramatically - and I'm not seeing it. Either they're seeing ghosts - an older version of the game of their youth that they wish was back, but really isn't - or I'm just not paying attention. There's this article, from Bill Madden of the NY Daily News, on changing demographics: Baseball undergoing major transition as young stars injecting new life into game (http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2010/06/19/2010-06-19_youth_movement_changes_face_of_game.html) Quote: Call them the New Wave Stars - Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Brennan Boesch, Ike Davis, Mike Leake and Starlin Castro to name just a few - as no one in baseball can remember a year in which so many young impact players have burst onto the major league scene in one year. Now, I know that most baseball men can only remember 4-5 years in the past before fact and myth start to merge, but there must be somebody who can remember a year with this many impact rookies. Has he asked Pat Gillick? And this one, from Roy S. Johnson of ESPN, on pitching: 2010: Year of the dominant pitcher (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/commentary/news/story?page=johnson/100610) Quote: By now, it should be clear that 2010 is The Year of the Pitcher. Even before Strasburg's gem, the game was being ruled by the men on the mound this season. Three no-hitters before the end of May, two of them perfect games. And, of course, Armando Galarraga's perfecto should be added to the tally. At the moment, 4.48 runs per game are being scored - if it holds up, it will be the lowest rate since 1992 (4.12). That said I'm pretty sure that 1985 was Year of the Pitcher, Mach II (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/1985-pitching-leaders.shtml). Closer to home here in Toronto, Richard Griffin looks changes in the style of play: Rays leading return to old-time baseball (http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/822134--griffin-rays-leading-return-to-old-time-baseball) Quote: In this post-pharmaceutical era of baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays look to have a head start on other teams in terms of returning to the way the game was played decades ago. I'm not entirely sure what old-time baseball is, though I think it's pretty close to this (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x51o16_lnwcob-1864-baseball_shortfilms) . On Blue Jays telecasts, announcer Buck Martinez has talked occasionally about the changes in the bodies of the players - a return to athleticism, he (and others) have called it. In his own words: True perfection in baseball every 130 years (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/story/2010/06/05/sp-martinez-perfect-games.html) Quote: Buck Martinez has a theory for why the major leagues have seen three perfect games this season, two of them official. The athlete is returning to baseball. I'm going to focus more on the Madden article. Here's a bit more on changing demographics: Quote: One agent agreed there seems to be more talent coming into baseball this season than ever before, but remained skeptical about why so many young players are filling up the rosters while so many others, 34 and older, are being phased out. There's a legitimate theory that, without steroids and amphetamines, the game is going to the young players, the agent said. Then there's the real theory that the younger the players, the lower the payroll, the greater the profit for the owners and the greater the value of the franchises. Take your pick. First of all, not to be dickish or anything, but if there only seems to be more talent coming into the game than before, then maybe the transition isn't as major as you think it is. Second, I don't think it's a theory that younger players are cheaper than veterans; I'm pretty sure that's a law. Third, I was curious about whether it was actually true. Fortunately, Baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml) happens to list the ages for every player in every year to help us find. I'm sure someone has already done this with better methodology and fewer errors than I can, but it's a lazy Sunday morning and I'm procrasting about doing chores, so here goes: I divided each year into four age groups, then looked at the number of plate appearances for each age group. I figure that the percentage of young players will go up slightly later in the year when rosters expand, so I looked at last year's numbers as well, and compared them to 2001, which I think was the peak of the Steroid Era. 2010 (June 20) Age GroupTotal PAs: 78463 18-249311 (11.9%) 25-29 34983 (44.6%) 30-34 25828 (32.9%) 35+ 8341 (10.6%) 2009 Age GroupTotal PAs: 187060 18-2422298 (11.9%) 25-29 89296 (47.7%) 30-34 55791 (29.8%) 35+ 19675 (10.5%) 2001 Age GroupTotal PAs: 186961 18-2421838 (11.7%) 25-29 84938 (45.4%) 30-34 58221 (31.1%) 35+ 21964 (11.7%) There is very little difference between this year and last year, except that a whole bunch of 29-year-olds turned 30. The number of players 35-and-over has dropped a percentage point compared to 2001. Nothing too dramatic there, so I filled in some more years from the past decade: 2007 Age GroupTotal PAs: 188598 18-2430688 (16.3%) 25-29 74085 (39.3%) 30-34 59549 (31.6%) 35+ 24276 (12.9%) 2005 Age GroupTotal PAs: 186274 18-2423266 (12.5%) 25-29 81725 (43.9%) 30-34 60010 (32.3%) 35+ 21273 (11.4%) 2003 Age GroupTotal PAs: 187437 18-2419462 (10.4%) 25-29 90526 (48.3%) 30-34 54480 (29.1%) 35+ 22969 (12.3%) In 2007, oddly, there was a spike in both young players and older ones.* Of course, this doesn't measure whether today's young players are more impactful than in past years. Maybe they are - though the kids from 2007 (Joe Mauer, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki, Felix Hernandez, etc.) didn't suck. Heyward and Strasberg have certainly been impressive - but they've got a ways to go to match the debuts of Albert Pujols (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml) and C.C. Sabathia (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml) (and Ichiro Suzuki) in 2001. Some more years: 1999 Age GroupTotal PAs: 189675 18-2428519 (15.0%) 25-29 79577 (42.0%) 30-34 63462 (33.5%) 35+ 18117 (9.6%) 1995 Age GroupTotal PAs: 156691 18-2419725 (12.6%) 25-29 75831 (48.4%) 30-34 48582 (31.0%) 35+ 12553 (8.0%) 1990 Age GroupTotal PAs: 160301 18-2421089 (13.2%) 25-29 82553 (51.5%) 30-34 46651 (29.1%) 35+ 10008 (6.2%) 1985 Age GroupTotal PAs: 160305 18-2425098 (15.7%) 25-29 73759 (46.0%) 30-34 39153 (24.4%) 35+ 22295 (13.9%) 1980 Age GroupTotal PAs: 161186 18-2426726 (16.6%) 25-29 77273 (48.0%) 30-34 48621 (30.2%) 35+ 8566 (5.3%) 1975 Age GroupTotal PAs: 148596 18-2439769 (26.8%) 25-29 69828 (47.0%) 30-34 29897 (20.1%) 35+ 9102 (6.1%) In 1975, Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson were the only players in their 40's. For the most part, the number of players 35-and-over has been trending upwards for the past 20 years, though it's come down again the past couple of years. But even in the heart of the steroid era, the number of old players is dwarfed by 1985, when there was a crazy spike in the number of old fogies in the game (who then vanished five years later).** The number of young players in the game spiked in the middle of decade; it's now a little higher than it was ten years ago, but not as high as in the 1990s. And we have a long ways to go before matching 1975, when 26.8% of PAs were taken by players 24-and-younger. As mentioned earlier, run scoring (4.48 runs per game) is at its lowest level in 18 years. But scoring usually goes up during the summer; two years ago (post-Mitchell Report) we were making a big deal out of the lack of scoring (4.54 runs per game on June 20, 2008) but it went up and finished at 4.65. Maybe the elites are doing better than in past years - certainly, Ubaldo Jimenez has been awesome. That was true in 1985, when run scoring was up compared to the previous five years, but individuals were either awesome (Gooden 24-4 1.53 ERA, Tudor 10 shutouts, Saberhagen, Hershiser, etc.) or just interesting (Blyleven's 24 complete games, Tom Browning's 20 wins as a rookie, etc.) I don't know if there is a way to measure athleticism - there are currently 0.63 stolen bases per game, the highest rate since 2001, when there were 0.64. The rate in triples has not changed in 15 years. There have been 0.34 sacrific bunts per game, the highest since 2004, when there were 0.36. I'm not a statistician, so I'm not going to read too much into the numbers. We may be seeing the beginning of small incremental changes in the game - I don't know if that has to do with the alleged end of the Steroid Era, or whether it's because the game has always, eternally, been undergoing incremental changes, that wind up being big changes when you look back 35 years. But I can't honestly say that I see the big dramatic changes in the game - it's baseball. I have no doubt that we are headed into a new era that will eventually look a lot different - I expect that expanded instant replay will change the game in a few ways. But to expect that it will revert to the game of 30 or 40 years ago is probably more wishful thinking than anything else; once the game has moved past an era, it's never gone back. * When I saw the 2007 numbers - 16.3% of plate appearances by players 24-and-younger - I thought I made a mistake. And it's still possible that I did; but anyways, here is a list of players from that group who had at least 400 ABs, compared to players from this season who are projected to reach that total: 2010 PAs (proj.)Player2007 PAsPlayer 736Daric Barton765Jose Reyes 712Elvis Andrus748Grady Sizemore 707Evan Longoria722Ryan Zimmerman 700Billy Butler711David Wright 690Pablo Sandoval710Nick Markakis 686Andrew McCutchen706Hanley Ramirez 683Justin Upton696Jeff Francoeur 674Adam Jones682Troy Tulowitzki 671Jason Heyward681Delmon Young 662Jay Bruce681Prince Fielder 636Austin Jackson680Miguel Cabrera 614Carlos Gonzalez669Robinson Cano 593Gordon Beckham638J.J. Hardy 581Alcides Escobar624Chris Young 571Matt Wieters620Russell Martin 564Ian Desmond619Stephen Drew 559Colby Rasmus612Melky Cabrera 538Ike Davis600Alex Gordon 538Delmon Young581Dustin Pedroia 495Julio Borbon561Jose Lopez 490Blake DeWitt556Edwin Encarnacion 488Justin Smoak552Brian McCann 478Cameron Maybin548B.J. Upton 412Reid Brignac508Casey Kotchman 412Carlos Gomez506Rickie Weeks 405Francisco Cervelli492Ryan Braun 405Luis Valbuena484Jeremy Hermida 484Hunter Pence 471Joe Mauer 444Josh Barfield 434Dioner Navarro 418Josh Fields 414Mark Reynolds ** The dramatic rise - and subsequent crash - in older regulars in the mid-80's was quite something. Here's a list of players in that age group with at least 500 PAs in 1985: PlayerAgePAs Pete Rose44500 Graig Nettles40515 Reggie Jackson39541 Rod Carew39518 Darrell Evans38594 Dave Concepcion37620 Carlton Fisk37620 Jose Cruz37590 Ron Cey37564 Lee Lacy37540 Bob Boone37520 Steve Garvey36699 Dave Kingman36666 Bobby Grich36571 Don Baylor36564 Toby Harrah36521 Phil Garner36505 George Foster36504 Bill Buckner35718 Cecil Cooper35674 Mike Schmidt35645 Ted Simmons35592 Andre Thornton35514 The above numbers, arranged differently: 18-24 YearTotal PAs (%) 20109311 (11.9%) 200922298 (11.9%) 200730688 (16.3%) 200523266 (12.5%) 200319462 (10.4%) 200121838 (11.7%) 199928519 (15.0%) 199519725 (12.6%) 199021089 (13.2%) 198525098 (15.7%) 198026726 (16.6%) 197539769 (26.8%) 25-29 YearTotal PAs (%) 2010 34983 (44.6%) 2009 89296 (47.7%) 2007 74085 (39.3%) 2005 81725 (43.9%) 2003 90526 (48.3%) 2001 84938 (45.4%) 1999 79577 (42.0%) 1995 75831 (48.4%) 1990 82553 (51.5%) 1985 73759 (46.0%) 1980 77273 (48.0%) 1975 69828 (47.0%) 30-34 YearTotal PAs (%) 2010 25828 (32.9%) 2009 55791 (29.8%) 2007 59549 (31.6%) 2005 60010 (32.3%) 2003 54480 (29.1%) 2001 58221 (31.1%) 1999 63462 (33.5%) 1995 48582 (31.0%) 1990 46651 (29.1%) 1985 39153 (24.4%) 1980 48621 (30.2%) 1975 29897 (20.1%) 35+ YearTotal PAs (%) 2010 8341 (10.6%) 2009 19675 (10.5%) 2007 24276 (12.9%) 2005 21273 (11.4%) 2003 22969 (12.3%) 2001 21964 (11.7%) 1999 18117 (9.6%) 1995 12553 (8.0%) 1990 10008 (6.2%) 1985 22295 (13.9%) 1980 8566 (5.3%) 1975 9102 (6.1%) Article - 2010 Sun, 20 Jun 2010 12:21:12 +0100 http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=252&Itemid=26 That was Joe Posnanski's description (http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/06/07/what-strasburg-means/#more-3547) of Stephen Strasburg's major league debut, and there really isn't a better way to describe it. It was awesome - like waking up Christmas morning 1983 and getting an awesome new Transformer or something (Soundwave (http://transformers.wikicomplete.info/g1:soundwave) was probably the coolest I ever got). It was also another good day for MLBTV, which I always consider dropping each spring because I don't think I use it enough to justify the cost. But between watching Jimenez' no-hitter live and Halladay's perfect game live and now the Strasburg debut live, it's probably been a good investment already. It's been a fun year. Of course, as baseball fans, we have to temper our excitement more than a little. Some of the early hype has compared him to LeBron James or Sidney Crosby (http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/article/819967), but it doesn't work that way with pitchers. Most great pitchers have to evolve to get there; it is pointless to compare Strasburg to Sandy Koufax at the same age, because the whole point of Koufax is that he had to struggle for years to become Koufax. Likewise, a comparison to Roy Halladay at the same age is meaningless; the whole point of Doc is that he had to rebuild himself from scratch to become Doc. Randy Johnson spent ten years in the wilderness before he became Randy Johnson. And so on. Mark Prior had one great year; Kerry Wood had one great game and some solid years but no great ones. Doc Gooden had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history at age 20, and probably 2/3 of a Hall-of-Fame career, but with a myriad of problems along the way. Other phenoms have come and gone without living up to the hype. The last guy who had Strasburg's ability at the same age, and carried it through to the Hall of Fame, was probably Tom Seaver (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seaveto01.shtml), who won 16 games as a 22-year-old rookie and never looked back. That was more than 40 years ago; maybe it's time for another guy to do that. But for now, it should be fun; both Gooden and Prior took their fans on quite a ride, even if it was a short one. The Mets got a World Series out of Gooden's run; Prior came within inches of leading the Cubs to their first World Series appearance since forever. Now that the Strasburg is here and Ryan Zimmerman has joined baseball's elite and there is more help coming, it's finally safe to say that the Nats have a bright future. (on the other hand, the Braves are in first place, and have as much young talent as anybody. What are the odds that Bobby Cox changes his mind after this year, and decides to take a run at Connie Mack's win record (http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/)?) Article - 2010 Wed, 09 Jun 2010 12:38:21 +0100 http://baseballsmorgasbord.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=251&Itemid=26 But it's been fun! The Top 10 American League leaders in slugging percentage, on May 16: 1. Ty Wigginton (BAL).686 2. Paul Konerko (CHW).667 3. Justin Morneau (MIN).650 4. Miguel Cabrera (DET).631 5. Vernon Wells (TOR).615 6. Robinson Cano (NYY).606 7. Evan Longoria (TBR).604 8. John Buck (TOR).602 9. Andruw Jones (CHW).592 10. Alex Gonzalez (TOR).559 Last year's leader was Joe Mauer (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2009-batting-leaders.shtml) , at .587. BTW, my fantasy team, which has been struggling along with Gil Meche for several weeks, really would like to thank Ozzie Guillen for starting Omar Vizquel at DH. Article - 2010 Sun, 16 May 2010 09:07:33 +0100