Dead Balls... or Bats Print E-mail
Wednesday, 04 June 2008

As you probably know by now, an odd split has emerged early in the 2008 season. The American League, with it's DH, is averaging 4.40 runs per game, down significantly from 2007's 4.90 number. The National League is averaging 4.59 RPG, down a bit from last year's 4.71 although the warm weather may push it up a bit. I believe that the last time that the NL scored more runs than the AL was 1974 - the second year of the DH - so it would be quite something if the numbers hold up.

In the AL, Milton Bradley leads with a .987 OPS; there are eight players in the NL who top that. Fellow Ranger Josh Hamilton leads with 15 homers, which would place him in the 4-way tie for fifth in the NL. Chipper Jones is still batting .405; Lance Berkman is on pace to bat .385 with 47 homers and 59 doubles; second-sacker Chase Utley is on pace to hit 56 home runs. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols.

Much has been said and written about the drop in run scoring the past few weeks, and much of the focus has been on the effects of steroids testing. And that's fine, although I confess that I am having a hard time wrapping my head around how PED testing would affect the American League so much more dramatically than the NL. OK, more older players due to the DH, who need drugs to extend their careers; plus more players whose only job is to hit and who might focus on retaining that one skill.

That could all be part of it. But as a general rule, the world we live in, and the surrounding universe, is several billion times more complicated than we usually give it credit for, so chances are that other factors are at play.

Of course, the task of coming up with alternate explanations isn't easy, and usually ends up with the writer pulling things out of his ass. But just to look over the usual suspects:

  • there's a small possibility that MLB would choose to de-juice the ball for political reasons, although the ball seems to be flying out OK in the National League
  • umpires might be changing their strike zones - but again, umpiring crews now work both leagues
  • weather. It's been a bit of a chilly spring, but again, it's hard to see how one league would fare worse than the other
  • it could just be cyclical. There are a bunch of young pitchers in the AL having fabulous seasons (Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jesse Litsch, John Danks, Jamie Shields for starters)
  • bats. A big deal has been made over the large number of broken/exploding bats this year, and debate is brewing over whether maple bats are more dangerous than traditional ash bats. I don't know the answer - but it might be possible that AL'ers have been using bats that not only explode, but just aren't well-constructed
  • ballparks. The only new park is in Washington, and the Nats certainly aren't scoring bundles of runs. But sometimes it takes months before a minor renovation and a change in scoring levels become connected
  • humidor. It has been a success at reducing run scoring at Coors Field, and I supppose it might be possible that all American League parks have decided to secretly start using one

Of all these possible explanations, the cyclical nature of the game is the most likely to be true (and most boring). Although, if there really was a big batch of bad bats currently in use, that would be awesome.

Even in the wake of the Mitchell Report, steroids remain a murky X-factor. Much has been made over the downsizing of ballplayers, many of whom are not as bulky as they used to be; that could indicate a drop in use of the juice. And maybe the American League really did stockpile on PED users early in the decade, giving it its 'advantage' over the NL over the past few seasons.

TO attach some actual names to the decline in scoring, here's a quick rundown of the American League players who last year finished in the top 40 in OPS, and how they are performing in 2008 (all 40 of them, curiously, are still in the AL):

Big Guns Failing to Meet Normal Standards
Alex Rodriguez - solid numbers, but well below his career norms. Just returned from a lengthy stay on the DL
David Ortiz - had a horrendous April, but a much better May (.318, 8 homers). 32 years old and fat, now on the DL
Vladimir Guerrero - batting .249 with 7 homers. 32 years old, reasons for sucking unknown
Derek Jeter - a lukewarm start to the year, batting .272 with little power. 34 years old
Ichiro Suzuki - had a slow start, but hit .319 in May; other numbers are normal, base stealing performance is spectacular

Guys Who Aren't Repeating Career Seasons
Carlos Pena - has been hitting the way he did four years ago. 2007 was way out of context with his career
Mike Lowell - power numbers normal; average is down from last year but at career norms. 34 years old, spent time on DL
Placido Polanco - had career year when he hit .341 last season. 32 years old, numbers have returned to normal levels

Guys Who Have Gotten Better
Justin Morneau - numbers are up from last year
Casey Kotchman - despite a slump in May, his average and power are both up
Manny Ramirez - at age 36, numbers are up a bit. On pace to hit 30 homers, after hitting 20 last year
Kevin Youkilis - went on a power tear in early May; average is up as well

Older Players Who May Be Near the End
Jim Thome - 10 homers, but batting just .212. 37 years old
Jorge Posada - has been on the DL for most of the season. 36-year-old catcher
Frank Thomas - had another slow start and was released by Toronto; played well with Oakland, and numbers are now close to last year's. 40 years old, overweight and now on the DL
Gary Sheffield - 39 years old, hit .213 and went on the DL
Paul Konerko - didn't figure to age well, but has struggled mightily with a .205 average and 6 homers. Could be Greg Luzinski or George Bell, guys who just fell off the cliff at the same age

Other Players Who are Slumping
Curtis Granderson - began the year on the DL. Was dynamite for one week when he returned, but slumped badly in May. 27 years old, should be in his prime
Victor Martinez - hitting for normal average, but has ZERO home runs. 29-year-old catcher
Robinson Cano - 25 years old; a streaky hitter but this is ridiculous. Was just terrible for first five weeks; had a hot streak in mid-May but is slumping again and batting just .220
Alex Rios - hitting with no power at all; average is down to .262. 27 years old, should be much better
Ryan Garko - another Indians mystery; at age 27, is batting .230 with no power
Carl Crawford - in a year in which almost everything has gone right for Tampa Bay, Crawford has been the exception. Average is way down, not much power either
Nick Swisher - another extreme case; 27 years old, has moved from a bad hitters park to a good one but is batting .201 with 4 homers. Normally a streaky hitter, but yikes
Travis Hafner - struggles have become very serious; hitting .217 with 4 homers when he went on the DL. Seems to be hurtling down the Ted Kluszewski career path

Players Having Good Years, but Whose Power Numbers are Down
Magglio Ordonez - having another fine season. His power is down from last year, but his numbers are close to his prime years with the White Sox
Hideki Matsui - power is down a bit, but is leading the league in batting average
Jack Cust - doing almost exactly what he did last year, with a little less power
B.J. Upton - everything is up except for home runs (3 to this point); he's hitting more doubles for some reason
Carlos Guillen - like many Tigers, power numbers are down; has been moved to three different positions
Chone Figgins - hitting for average and getting on base, but six doubles are his only extra base hits

Just a Small Change in Performance
Grady Sizemore - average is down a bit, but power numbers are up
Nick Markakis - average is down, power numbers are normal. 24 years old
Torii Hunter - having his typical season
Raul Ibanez - average is down but power numbers have held. 36 years old
Dustin Pedroia - bit of a sophomore slump, batting average has dropped 35 points
Bobby Abreu - numbers are up a bit from last year
Jose Guillen - batting .256 but with good power
Brian Roberts - average is down 30 points
Jermaine Dye - average has gone up 30 points

Looking at the worst hitters in the league, the numbers aren't too much worse than they were last year, except of course for Tony Pena Jr.'s jaw-dropping .369 OPS. Robinson Cano's .595 OPS sandwiches him between Maicer Izturis and Juan Uribe, to put his season in perspective (Cano is not the worst Yankee, though; that would be Jose Molina). The $50 million man, Gary Matthews Jr., is batting .215; fellow Angels Izturis and Erik Aybar are on the list, as is former Angel Orlando Cabrera. One of the worst hitters in the league in 2007 was Josh Barfield; his replacement, Asdrubal Cabrera, has a .527 OPS, better than only Pena.

Here in Toronto, the focus has been on the team's brutal performance with runners in scoring position. But that hasn't been the case elsewhere; the league is batting .259 overall, .265 with RISP. Last year, the league batted .270 overall, .275 with RISP. The numbers with runners on base are similar. One odd number - in 2007, the AL batted .312 with the bases loaded, but this season is batting .274.

Oh well, it's early; you keep telling yourself that, but it's hard for our puny brains to process the information. At this time last year, four teams (Cubs, Yankees, Phillies, Rockies) that would later make the playoffs had losing records; the Yanks, Phils and Rocks did not pass the .500 mark until mid-July. Maybe A-Rod and the other big guns will really start to mash, while maybe Swisher and Rios will finally stop sucking.

 
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