Now is the time to look back at some of the comments I wrote last March, and see how each team turned out.

New York Yankees

I just have a bad feeling about the Bronx Circus that is developing around the team, whether it is Steinbrenner's trampoline act or Boomer's unicycle act or the horde of Japanese journalists wearing big red shoes. Throw in a pitching staff that is old and fragile, and you have a situation that may spiral out of control very quickly.

The Yankees gave it their all, and outperformed my expectations. They looked shaky during the winter and during the spring and even during the summer, but they held together and won the divison and came damn close to winning another championship.

What they have discovered is what Casey Stengel's great teams of the 1950's discovered: that the law of averages catches up to you eventually. After winning five straight championships, Stengel's team settled into a win-one/lose-one pattern for the next few years. Seven game series are just too unpredictable, and you can't keep winning them forever.

That the Yankees have won as many pennants as they have is amazing, given the two extra rounds of playoffs that have been added. As for next year, well, we'll see if they sign Millwood or Colon or Guerrero or Sheffield or... who knows, maybe they'll go another year with Karim Garcia in right field. And Jeff Weaver in the pitching rotation. Just maybe.

Boston

The Sox have a brand new GM whom no one really thinks can do the job, but what the heck, no one knew who Dick Williams was when he took over as manager of the Sox in 1967. They are eschewing common wisdom and trying a bullpen-by-committee, which no thinks will work except that the 1986 Sox won the pennant with Bob Stanley, Joe Sambito and Calvin Schiraldi sharing closing duties.

Well, the bullpen sucked. It sucked in the ninth inning, and also the eighth, and also the seventh, and... well, it just sucked. But it got better in the second half, after the acquisition of Byung-Hyun Kim, and was brilliant in the playoffs, even when Kim went mysteriously missing. The final verdict on the bullpen-by-committee? Well... the best that can probably be said is that it didn't cost them the World Series.

The offence scored and scored and scored and rarely slumped over the course of the season. The starting pitching was as good as it needed to be. The GM acquitted himself well; preseason pickups David Ortiz, Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller were sensational, and getting Kim in midseason proved to be a great deal.

As usual, they need better fielding and they need better luck in the postseason. They will also have a new manager next year; too bad for Grady Little, because for most teams this would have been a good year.

Toronto Blue Jays

In any case, Tosca can't waste any time getting this year's squad ready to play; their first 20 games are against the Yankees, Red Sox and Twins. Those first three weeks can signal that the Jays are going to be competitive, or they could wreck the entire season. The Jays should do better than last year, probably play .500 ball or finish a couple of games over; it's unlikely that they will move up or down in the standings.

I almost had this team pegged down (good thing, since I live in the city). Yes, they got off to a disastrous start; and yes, they managed to finish a few games over .500. The only quirk in the season was a May in which they won 21 games, and managed to get within a game of the Yankees, before they fell back. Still, the fans were excited for a short time, especially by an offence that scored a bujillion runs the first half of the year, finishing 2nd in the league for the season.

The consensus here in the city seems to be that GM J.P. Ricciardi is a pretty smart dude, but the pressure is on for him to make an impact move. The stars from this year's squad — Delgado, Halladay, Wells, Escobar — were all holdovers from the Gord Ash era. They were good enough to win 85 games, but now it's time for Ricciardi to make them better.

The Jays need pitching, obviously; Ricciardi also has to deal with a clogged left end of the defensive spectrum. Delgado, for now, is the first baseman, while future first sacker Josh Phelps is stuck as the DH. Third baseman Eric Hinske has had two horrible seasons defensively; if the Jays are serious about improving the pitching, then they are going to have to upgrade the defence at third, but there is no obvious place for Hinske to move to.

Baltimore

If you are an Orioles fan, then perhaps you can comfort yourself by saying that the team was almost good, that if they can just figure out what went wrong and not do it again, they will be OK.

Well, what do you know, the Orioles went right back out and did it again, playing well for four months before wilting in August. They didn't finish 4-32 again, but it was still bad.

On August 8, the Orioles swept a doubleheader from Boston, and were flirting with respectibility with a 56-58 record, only a half game behind Toronto. They went 15-33 the rest of the way, finishing with 91 losses; manager Mike Hargrove was fired after the season.

I'm not sure how to evaluate Hargrove's performance; I think the Orioles' talent has been really, really thin the past two years, so it isn't a surprise that they have had losing seasons. It was a surprise that they were able to play so well for four months in each of the past two years... and also a surprise that they crashed and burned so badly each of the past two years.

The Orioles will be rebuilding with a new manager next year. They have some nice young arms, and the Ponson trade should pay off in the near future.

Tampa Bay

The Devil Rays are just awful, and aren't going to get better. I could applaud them for going out and getting a real manager in Lou Pinella, but then they went out and signed expensive turkeys Rey Ordonez and Travis Lee.

The Rays went out and lost 99 games. The general consensus seems to be that they are headed in the right direction... but really, if anyone but Lou Pinella was managing this club, would any of us feel optimistic about the Rays? Their pitching staff was horrible, and didn't show a lot of promise; at shortstop, they used two past winners of the Husband Of The Year Award, Julio Lugo and Rey Ordonez. They really only have two players in their lineup that any team would want - and you can bet someone will grab Aubrey Huff when he becomes a free agent.

So it's Lou Pinella and Rocco Baldelli and hope for a miracle. As always, the Rays have a legitimate shot at finishing ahead of the Orioles next year - but that's about as high as they can aim.

Minnesota

The Twinkies will decline this year. Not by a huge amount, but they will likely win 85-90 games. One, they really overachieved last year, and probably hit the ceiling with 94 wins. Two, even though you have to like their young players and pitchers, this is still a team that didn't add a single impact player to their roster.

They won 90 games, and it was enough to win the division. It was a roller-coaster season; they lost six games in a row in early April, then won six games in a row, then lost six games in a row again. But their only real competition at the time was the Royals, and a terrific May put the Twins in good position to win.

They slumped a bit in June, then lost 12 of 13 games before the All-Star break. Management responded with two key moves: first, acquiring Shannon Stewart during the break; then, young hotshot Johan Santana was put into the starting rotation. Both excelled, as did veteran Brad Radke, who was 9-1 after the break. They won eleven straight games in September to clinch the division, then had their season quickly ended in the playoffs by the Yankees.

The Twins are a decent team, and they benefit a great deal from playing in an awful division. No one took the Royals seriously early in the season, so even when the Twinkies stumbled there wasn't reason to panic. Minnesota also posted a nifty 16-3 record against the hapless Tigers.

Chicago White Sox

They should win; they have more good hitters than the Twins and also some good pitchers. They have a nice balance of youth and experience. They shot themselves in the foot last year and didn't win as many games as they should have, and will probably rebound this season.

Want to know why the Sox haven't won a championship since 1917? Check the calendar. From July 8-10, the White Sox were swept in a three game series by the Tigers. Jerry Manuel should have been fired on the spot. Nothing personal, but it is unacceptable for a team as good as the Sox to be swept by one of the worst teams in the history of baseball.

True, the White Sox made a run in the second half. But they were just one of many teams to make a charge during the season, then hit the wall and fall back. Manuel will be replaced, but it's a little late, no? The manager may not be responsible for the play of his players, but he is accountable; the AL Central was a winnable division, and the Sox could and should have won it.

Kansas City

The Royals have also had nine straight losing seasons, and their franchise record has dropped below .500. And by the looks of it, things aren't going to improve this year.

Obviously, they improved in spades. They won their first nine games, and hit their high point of the season on April 24 when they beat the Twins, giving them a 16-3 record. On April 27, they took a 9-4 lead into the ninth inning against Toronto and gave up six runs, starting their inevitable decline and ending Mike MacDougal's bid to become the Next Great Closer. The rest of the season was a struggle, but they still won 83 games.

The pitching staff was as bad as advertised, giving up over five runs per game (only Detroit and Texas gave up more runs). They also didn't enjoy pitching in Kansas City, where they gave up over six runs per game. Darrell May was a nice surprise, Runelvys Hernandez looked good before he got hurt. MacDougal looked good for three weeks and got all the hype, but Jeremy Affeldt was far more impressive.

The Royals were fourth in the league in runs scored, which is kind of amazing, given the lack of punch in their lineup. The Royals were the only team in the league to bat over .300 with runners on base, and with runners in scoring position. That's a great accomplishment, but unfortunately is almost impossible to replicate from one year to the next. Their infield, which was a disaster in 2002, got a huge boost from shortstop Angel Berroa, who may have been the best rookie in the league.

Looking ahead... I'd sure like to have Affeldt on my team, and even MacDougal redeemed himself after a horrendous summer. But their starting rotation is still weak. Carlos Beltran played at an MVP level, and will be sorely missed if/when he leaves. A losing season in 2004 is highly likely, but there are some blocks for them to build on.

Cleveland

The Indians have picked a bad time to start rebuilding. With the White Sox underperforming, and the Twins refusing to spend any money on extra players, the AL Central is a very winnable division.

The Indians didn't have a good year, losing 94 games. Their offence was second-worst in the league, despite a nice rookie season from Jody Gerut and a stunning breakout season from Milton Bradley and 19 games against Detroit pitching. They just couldn't score.

Cleveland's closer, Danys Baez, took a lot of heat for his 2-9 record and 10 blown saves. But on the whole, the Cleveland bullpen was remarkably good, far better than anyone could have expected. David Riske was great, while guys named Betancourt and Cressend were also excellent. The starting rotation, led by maturing C.C. Sabathia, was decent, and overall the pitching wasn't bad. But not good enough to overcome that offence.

The good news is that they are still in a weak divison. They should also score more runs; Brandon Phillips will play much better, as will Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez and some other kids who were just cutting their teeth last season. Maybe with a couple of nice free agent additions, this team can at least aim for a .500 season next year.

Detroit

They have had nine straight losing seasons and last year lost 106 games. Their pitchers and their hitters and their fielders are all terrible. They will hit a few more home runs, yes, but presumably their pitchers will give up a few more as well.

Having already endured a 109-loss season in 1996 and a 106-loss season in 2002, the Tigers went out and had just about the worst season in the history of baseball. At least some of the other epic bad teams ('62 Mets, '17 Athletics, '99 Spiders) had an excuse. The Tigers pitching and defence were bad, and their offence was so inept that it will surely be remembered a 100 years from now as maybe the all-time worst.

The Tigers don't really have any players that anyone would want. Some pundits were nice enough to compare Mike Maroth to Randy Jones, but I don't see that happening. Carlos Pena is moderately interesting, Dmitri Young can hit but can't play in the field, Franklyn German is a good guy to take a chance on... other than that, there is nothing. They have nothing of trade value, and it doesn't appear that the farm system is going to help soon.

Oakland

New manager Ken Macha has a real opportunity to do what Bob Brenly did, lead a disappointing team to the promised land in his first year on the job.

Anyone who thinks print is dead wasn't paying attention to the 2003 baseball season. The Oakland Athletics were having a perfectly fine season until June, when Michael Lewis' "Moneyball" was published. Since then, the Athletics have divided baseball fans as surely as George Bush divides voters.

Moneyball is no longer just a book, it is also both a noun and an adjective. The next edition of Webster's Dictionary should have the following entry:

Moneyball

n.: a baseball philosophy that allows small-market teams to compete by using sabermetrics and firing scouts.

"GM J.P. Ricciardi introduced Moneyball to the Blue Jays last season."

adj.

1. A style of baseball practiced by baseball teams.

2. A style of management practiced by baseball GMs.

"The Athletics have had success using a Moneyball strategy."

Anyways, it was a disappointing season for the Athletics', who had a great year but blew it in the playoffs. Billy Beane's reputation took a bit of a beating, but I assume that his team will be competitive again in 2004.

Seattle

After the team folded up and threw in the towel sometime in August, it was time to make a change. New manager Bob Melvin inherits a talented team that will be hard pressed to keep pace in a tough division. They will have a winning season, but to reach the playoffs they will depend on arms that are both very young (Pineiro) and old (Moyer).

New manager, same old story. Despite fantastic years from Moyer and Boone and a fantastic bullpen and a good first half, this team folded up after the All-Star break and missed the playoffs. GM Pat Gillick elected not to make any additions to the roster in midseason, was roasted by the media, and resigned after the season.

The new GM will have to deal with the contract demands of Ichiro Suzuki, who is eligible for arbitration. Presumably, Ichiro will get a big raise; his agent is looking for a long-term contract, and MVP-type dollars for a guy who was MVP three years ago. Though Ichiro has undoubtedly been a terrific performer for the Mariners, this contract could turn out to be an albatross around their necks.

This year, he hit .352 before the All-Star break, only .259 afterwards. The year before, he hit .357 before the break, .280 afterwards. Do the Mariners really want to pay $15 million for a guy who was outplayed by Scott Posednik last year? Maybe Ichiro has another big season in him, but it's almost certain that he will be overpaid in 2004.

Anaheim

This Angels team reminds me a little of the 1990 Reds, a team that won the World Series then followed up with the a disastrous 88-loss season. The Reds were made up of guys like Joe Oliver and Todd Benzinger and Jack Armstrong and Billy Hatcher, and though they won a championship there was really a lot less talent there then it first seemed.

The Angels hit almost the same number of home runs and drew almost the same number of walks as they did in their championship season. But their team batting average dropped 14 points, and they finished 11th in the league in runs scored. The lesson: it's really hard to hit .280 as a team for a full year. It's great when it happens, but when it doesn't you better have some secondary skills to fall back on.

The Angels were also let down by their starting pitching. The team ERA was OK - sixth in the league - but that was mostly do to their brilliant bullpen. Lesson #2: a good bullpen is nice, especially in the playoffs, but it's not much good if your hitters and starters stink.

Angels' management has to end their complacency and turn over at least a third of their roster. They've got the nucleus of a terrific team, but they can't wait for the same 25 guys to rediscover the magic of 2002. They need to mix up their core group of champs with some fresh faces.

Texas

Entering 2003, the Rangers have lost Pudge and Rogers, but have gained a real closer (Urbina) and a manager who usually wins (Showalter). They are stuck in baseball's toughest division, but are an interesting mix of talent and an extremely dangerous team who should be able to at least play .500 ball.

I think we need a congressional investigation to find out why the Rangers' pitching staff is so bad every year. They've had two different GMs, two different managers, and a gaggle of pitchers, but they never seem to get better.

I know what a lot of people will say: Alex Rodriguez makes too much money. That may be true, but you would think that, even by accident, their pitching would improve by at least a little bit. Other teams seem to be able to pick up an Esteban Loaiza or a Darrell May or a Livan Hernandez or a Joe Borowski or a Wilson Alvarez, and have them perform well without any expectations. The Rangers... they just can't find anybody.

Of course, the offence wasn't too hot, either; they scored fewer runs than the Royals, despite playing in the AL's best hitter's park. A-Rod was great and Blalock looked impressive and Palmeiro was OK, but they gave way too many at bats to Doug Glanville, Ryan Christensen and Donnie Sadler (not to mention Laynce Nix, Jason Jones, Ramon Nivar, Marcus Thames... who the hell are these people?)

Blalock will be an outstanding hitter, and Mark Teixeira is going to be great as well. A-Rod isn't going to slow down any time soon. So there's always hope... of course, John Hart's record at building pitching staffs hasn't been so good since 1994.

Atlanta

Over their past 11 full seasons they have averaged 98 wins per year. That's a pretty astonishing run of success, but there are two major problems. (1) The team can't win the World Series, and (2) the fans are bored.

Zzzzzzzz.

The Braves' pitching was actually kind of crummy this year, finishing 9th in the league in ERA. Even still, they couldn't even give their fans a playoff race; their offence rolled over the rest of the league, and the team cruised to yet another division title. And then, they lost to the Cubs in the first round of the playoffs.

This winter, there is a chance that Maddux might leave and Smoltz might retire, so maybe someone (the Marlins?) might actually give the Braves some competition during the regular season. But the Braves usually do an extraordinary job of regenerating themselves each season, so I'm not betting against another postseason appearance in 2004.

Florida

They had a nice little off-season, picking up Pudge Rodriguez and Mark Redman and Tim Spooneybarger. This team could, I think, easily play .500 ball in this division, if the young arms hold up. On the other hand, they are still owned by Jeffrey Loria, they have nothing but lightweights in their outfield... huh, I guess I'm not a believer yet.

As much as I hate to say it, Jeff Loria deserves a lot of credit. He was the one who thought the team could contend, when not many other people (certainly not me) thought so — especially after Burnett's injury. It was Loria who paid big bucks for Pudge Rodriguez, and then fired Jeff Torborg at the right time, and then hired Trader Jack, whose fine managerial career had become a victim of ageism.

The Marlins are so young, that some people are already talking about the possibility of a repeat next season. Possible, but 2005 might be a better bet. Miguel Cabrera will probably need another year to emerge as a star, and A.J. Burnett will probably need another year to get back to full strength.

Philadelphia

A lot of people are picking the Phillies to win their division. I should show a modicum of independent thought and pick the Braves or the Mets... but I'll take the Phillies as well, if only because I like Randy Wolf and Kevin Millwood and Bobby Abreu so much.

Well, the Phillies were outclassed by the Braves, but also blew a golden chance to win the Wild Card. That they were beaten out by the Marlins is nothing to be ashamed of... but how were they beaten by five games? On Sept. 19, the Phillies led the Marlins by a half game... and then the roof caved in. Six straight losses, including a three-game sweep in Florida.

The hitters were fifth in the league in runs scored, despite a pair of horrible seasons from David Bell and Pat Burrell. The pitchers were OK; they had four competent starting pitchers, but no one emerged as an ace. In the bullpen, Rheal Cormier had a brilliant season in middle relief, but his efforts were undone by the horrible closers, Jose Mesa and Mike Williams.

The Phillies have talent, but need to move beyond their adolescent stage. They need a manager who isn't a hothead and they have to get serious about their bullpen and stop wasting time and money on mediocre free agents.

Montreal

Teams that take a big leap forward (in Montreal's case, 15 games), usually take a step back the next year. Otherwise, there is no obvious reason why the team can't continue to compete.

The Expos used smoke and mirrors to eke out another winning season, despite some devastating injuries to the starting rotation, and the loss of superstar Vlad Guerrero for a third of the season. They survived some tough times, including an endless road trip in the early summer, and MLB's decision (with the team still on the fringes of the wild-card race) not to expand the roster in September, presumably to save a few bucks.

The obvious questions for 2004:

1. Where is this team going to play? It appears they are going to spend at least one more season in Montreal, but it is unclear whether they are going to play more games in Puerto Rico.
2. Will Vladimir Guerrero be back? Logic suggests that he will not; if they can't afford to expand the rosters in September, how can they afford Guerrero?
3. Will Frank Robinson be back as manager? He's done a terrific job, but will also be 69 years old. Old managers are in vogue these days, so I suspect that if he wants to come back, he will.

The Expos have been a fine story the past two years, but next season could be bleak without Guerrero. Tony Armas won't be back 100%, and the lineup has too many holes that they won't be able to fill.

New York Mets

The East should be a winnable division, but I think the Mets still have more ifs than either the Braves or Phillies. IF their old pitching staff can remain in top form, and IF Alomar and Piazza and Floyd can avoid injuries and play at their best, and IF they can get some sort of contribution out of Mo Vaughn and Roger Cedeno, then maybe they have a shot at keeping pace.

Wow, were the Mets ever bad. I had some reservations about them before the season, but they were much worse than I expected. The pitching was old and mediocre; the hitters were just awful, worse than any team except the Dodgers. The veterans were either unproductive (Roberto Alomar) or often hurt (Mike Piazza, Cliff Floyd) or both (Mo Vaughn).

The good news is that rookies Jose Reyes and Jason Phillips both appear to be good players. The bad news is, they need two outfielders, possibly three; Roger Cedeno and Timo Perez need to be replaced, and they can't count on Cliff Floyd. They need a second baseman, and they have to deal with a pitching staff that is really old and tired.

Chicago Cubs

The current Cubs team has some nice young players, but after a 97-loss season it would be hard to argue that they are close to being a serious contender.

BEFORE GAME SIX

I have to admit that I find Dusty Baker a little embarrassing at times. Having his kid run wild around the field during last year's playoffs was obviously a bad idea; so were his comments this year about blacks, whites and high temperatures. And, oh yeah, he put a pitcher with an ERA over 6.00 on the All-Star team.

But he appears to have a remarkable knack for winning. And he didn't just win this year, he won with the Cubs, for cripes sakes. His best pitcher spent three weeks on the DL and his best player was suspended for corking his bat, and his fine young centre fielder suffered a season-ending knee injury in July, and his rookie first baseman was hospitalized with a concussion in June, and...

But they won. The top four starting pitchers were the best foursome in the league. Mark Prior both justified and transcended all the hype he received last season. Dusty seems to be the new Sparky Anderson, a manager who will never be mistaken for a great tactician, but who has a remarkable ability to motivate his players and find a comfortable role for them.

AFTER GAME SIX

Before the season, I didn't give the Cubs any chance of winning a championship in the next five years. They almost fooled me, before reality set it. Heading into 2004... well, they still have four starting pitchers every team would be envious of, and they have a manager with an impressive winning record.

On the other hand, I think the ragtag lineup they used this year was only good for one season. And I think some of the "Dusty Baker Mystique" may wear off, now that the billy goat has shown him who's the boss. Unless they go out and sign Vladimir Guerrero or something, next season will likely be a struggle to return to the postseason.

Houston

Berkman, Bagwell, Oswalt, Miller, Wagner and Dotel are spectacular, but the rest of the team wasn't so hot. They've added another front-line player in Jeff Kent... but to get past the Cardinals they're going to have to get something out of Hidalgo or Lugo or Reynolds or Redding or whoever.

For most of the season, the Astros looked like they would be going to the postseason. Then they cacked the final ten days of the season, and were passed by the Cubs. You could, I suppose, blame the Astros' ill-fortunes on the injury to their ace, Roy Oswalt. Or you could blame Jimy Williams for playing Geoff Blum too much and sitting "Home Run" Ensberg too often.

Or it may be something inexplicable. The Astros had a real good offence, a real good defence, and real good pitching. Their runs scored/allowed ratio (using the Pythagorean Theorem) predicts that they should have won 95 games; instead, they won 87, making them by far the most underachieving team in the league.

It could be bad luck or bad timing or bad managing or bad mojo or whatever. The good news is that they will probably bounce back; the bad news is that they still haven't quite figured out what to do when they have to put Biggio and Bagwell out to pasture. I'm sure they will be competitive again in 2004.

St. Louis

Entering 2003, they appear to have as good a chance as anybody of winning the pennant this year. They are building around the best young player in the league (Pujols), and are strong in almost every department.

The Cardinals probably had the best player in the league at four positions (Pujols, Edmonds, Renteria, Rolen), yet somehow failed to win a weak Central division. They were second in the league in runs scored, but the pitching staff didn't hold up. Their bullpen was a disaster, and they only had 1 1/2 quality starting pitchers. They were 14-25 in one-run games, which is awful (but on the other hand will surely improve, if only because of luck).

Every year, it seems, the Cardinals are scrambling to patch together their pitching staff; this season, it was injuries to Matt Morris and Jason Isringhausen put them in a position from which they could not recover. The strategy of signing injury-prone pitchers (Isringhausen, Chris Carpenter) didn't work too well, so they'll have to try something else.

Pittsburgh

New GM Dave Littlefield promised to turn things around, and got off to a good start last year when he turned Todd Ritchie into Kip Wells and Josh Fogg. So this year, Littlefield dips into the free agent market, and signs... Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders?

The Pirates made no real progress, losing 87 games. What was really bizarre was watching a third of their lineup star in the postseason with the Cubs (Ramirez, Lofton, Simon). In addition to those three, they traded their best player, Bilan Giles, "all-star" Mike Williams, Jeff Suppan, Scott Sauerbeck, Jim Bibby, Phil Garner and anyone with a pulse. They attempted to trade Jason Kendall, and probably will continue to do so during the winter.

I guess I have to give Littlefield some credit; though I wasn't thrilled when he signed a bunch of mediocre free agents last winter, he did a pretty good job of trading them for prospects during the season. The only one he held on to was Sanders, who actually had a great year.

I'm not even sure who the heck is going to play for this team in 2004. Tike Redman hit .330 in the second half, and will presumably get a job. Logic suggests that Craig Wilson will finally get regular playing time. Oliver Perez has a chance to electrify the starting rotation the same way that Johan Santana did for the Twins.

The Pirates may go out and sign some more mediocre free agents. As long as Dusty Baker is managing, I'm sure Littlefield will be able to deal his veterans by midsummer.

Cincinnati

There are a lot of baseball fans, including myself, who are enthused about the potential of the Reds' outfield. They have a superstar, Ken Griffey Jr., a future superstar, Adam Dunn, and one of last year's best rookies, Austin Kearns... if Griffey stays healthy and the others improve like they should, then it will be an awesome outfield. The infield's not too shabby, either, and the bullpen is good.

Was there a bigger disappointment this year than the Reds' outfield? Adam Dunn looked like the new Rob Deer, struggling to keep his average over the Mendoza Line while still hitting home runs and drawing walks. He had his season ended early by a thumb injury in August, Their super sophomore, Austin Kearns, had a great April, a good May, then struggled in June before a shoulder injury ended his season in July. Ken Griffey Jr. spent most of the year on the DL, and his future is in question.

The offence was 13th in the league in runs scored, a terribly disappointing total, and the pitching staff was the worst in the league. The good news is that both Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns are great young hitters who somehow got screwed up at the plate last year... but I think they will be back. The pitching staff is a horror show that won't be repaired overnight.

You probably heard many times over the course of the season about what a great home run park Great American Ballpark is. The early results suggest that this is true. The Reds and their opponents hit 215 home runs in Cincinnati, 176 on the road (a difference of 22%). Still not quite in the same range as Colorado, where there were 230 homers hit, compared to 168 on the road (a difference of 37%).

Milwaukee

It was another disastrous year in Milwaukee. How bad? In late August, the Brewers put together an unlikely 10-game win streak — and by its end were still 13 games under .500. They had three real good hitters: mashers Sexson and Jenkins, and super rookie Scott Posednik. The rest of the lineup was weak. And the pitching staff... the less said about Glendon Rusch's season, the better.

They did have two of the most interesting stories of the year. One was Posednik, a 27-year-old refugee whom 30 teams could have used but only the Brewers wanted. The other was Brooks Kieschnick, the former Cubs outfielder who returned to the majors as a pitcher/pinch-hitter/outfielder, swatting seven homers in 70 at bats, and pitching 53 not-bad innings.

Looking ahead for 2004... well, they're still the Brewers. Richie Sexson's a free agent, and other teams are going to offer him more money than the Brewers, so they better hope he likes beer and bratwurst. They don't have a pitching staff. They're still owned by Bud Selig; that, surely, is the worst curse of all.

San Francisco

If nothing else, GM Brian Sabean has made some bold, unexpected moves that give the team a much different look for 2003. He has brought in a very old manager (Felipe Alou) who was brilliant ten years ago, but it's also been that long since he's helmed a team that actually had a chance to win... this is a team that is in good position to win their division; even if Bonds makes a trip to the DL, this team has enough talent to stay afloat.

For 163 games, everything went perfectly. The team got off to a great start, then coasted the rest of the year. Barry Bonds was great, again, and the team was able to keep winning even though he missed 30 games. Ace Jason Schmidt was one of the best pitchers in the league, and shut out the Marlins in Game One of the NLDS.

And then they lost three games and were knocked out of the playoffs in the first round. Schmidt never pitched again in the series, and will have surgery after the season. To make matters worse, the Giants traded some outstanding young pitchers for Sidney Ponson — and Ponson only pitched once in the postseason.

This is, I think, a team that is ready for a fall. Bonds played in 130 games this year, and it would be shocking if he exceeded that next year. Almost the entire lineup is over 30 years old. Schmidt just had surgery, Reuter's probably close to finished, Foppert didn't look sound this year... GM Sabean has another real challenge to get this club ready for next year.

Los Angeles

The Dodgers will be hard pressed to improve on last season's 92 wins. Gagne will be good but not as great as last year.

Umm.

Well, as it turned out, they slipped back a few games, finishing with 85 wins. Gagne, on the other hand, may have thrown the best 82 innings that any pitcher has ever thrown.

Despite a disappointing finish to the season, I think the Dodgers may be in a good position to take the NL West next year. They have brilliant pitching and defence; they need to add some hitters, but theoretically at least that is easier to do than adding pitching. A healthy Shawn Green will help. The team may also be sold this winter, and who knows what kind of impact that will have.

Arizona

The two top starting pitchers (Johnson and Schilling) went down with injuries early in the season; the DBacks had a bad start (5-12), but thanks to guys like Brandon Webb and Migel Batista and Oscar Villarreal, they stayed afloat, and got back to .500 in mid-June.

For the next three months, people kept talking about how tough the Diamondbacks would be once they got Johnson and Schilling back. Well, they got them back; Schilling was outstanding, Johnson was inconsistent. But things just didn't click; the team ended up with 84 wins, and didn't really contend for the Wild Card in September.

This year, I think there is more optimism for the future. Johnson and Schilling are still old, but at least the team has learned to win without them. Webb is a power pitcher who gets ground balls, and that's a devastating combination; if he stays healthy, and if they can squeeze a couple more solid years out of the old guys, then this still has the potential to be a mean pitching staff.

Colorado

The Rockies really need a couple of guys to go goofy at Coors, the same way that Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla used to do. They need Gabe Kapler and Preston Wilson to each hit 45 home runs or something like that. That is something that hasn't happened in recent years... as soon as this team gets back to acquiring Coors Hitters — guys who can crush a fastball, if nothing else — it will make things easier for the beleaguered pitching staff.

It was business as usual for the Rockies, who rang up another 88 losses with a lineup full of patsies. Todd Helton was fantastic, and Preston Wilson earned his keep, but the rest of the lineup was atrocious. They finished a distant third in the league in runs scored, playing in a park where even the Tigers would look a little scary. Their pitching staff was, predictably, last in the league in ERA.

There are problems with trying to win in Coors Field, but you need to score at least 950 runs and the Rockies fell well short of that. If the Red Sox can pick up David Ortiz, Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller in the offseason, why are the Rockies dicking around with Chris Stynes and Greg Norton? Get it together, guys, and sign some hitters.

San Diego

This year, the story will again be on pitching, though with the focus not on the number of pitchers used, but on the development of the good ones. Their young arms range from moderately exciting to sensational; Perez, Peavy and Lawrence will all be expected to shine, while someone else will have to fill in for injured Trevor Hoffman as the closer.

The Padres led the league with 98 losses. Their offence was bad, emasculated by injuries to Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko, and the inability of their young kids (Burroughs, Nady) to pick up the slack.

The pitching staff struggled. Jake Peavy looks like he is going to be a terrific pitcher, soon; Adam Eaton looked good in his comeback year. Oliver Perez was a disappointment, and was traded. Brian Lawrence was also unimpressive. Rod Beck made a brilliant comeback in midseason to fill the void left by Hoffman.

The Padres made a curious move in August, trading Perez to the Pirates for Brian Giles. Giles is a great hitter, and they need him in their lineup... but he will also be 33 years old this year. Can this team rebuild in time for him to help them? They need Peavy and Burroughs and Nady to all improve quickly, and they need some better health. And I don't think it's a given that either Beck or Hoffman will be effective next year.

My impression of the Padres is that they are a mess; they have 6-7 roster spots sewn up, and the rest are up for grabs. I guess they're hoping to be next year's Marlins, and hope their young players all get good at once.