| Odds and Boggs |
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| Monday, 06 December 2004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 1980's has an inferiority complex. I grew up and became a fan of the game in that decade, so I have a soft spot for its players. The game was an exciting mix of power and speed (including some of the greatest base stealers in baseball history); there were some great playoffs, and the playing field was as level as it has ever been. But there was a striking lack of greatness. There were no dynasties; no team won consecutive championships. There were great players, but none of the stature of a Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth. No one hit 50 home runs in a season. The hits leader was Willie Wilson, the wins leader was Jack Morris, and neither is going into the Hall of Fame. Speaking of Cooperstown, the eligible BBWAA members are mailing in their ballots. It appears likely that one 80's star, Wade Boggs, will be elected; Ryne Sandberg may also have a shot on his second year on the ballot, or a reliever, probably Bruce Sutter. Currently, there are 27 players who were active in 1980 who are in the Hall of Fame. The players from that season still have a long way to go before they match the illustrious class of 1928; 55 active players from that season were later inducted into the Hall of Fame. Some were voted in by the writers, but most were inducted by the Veterans Committee. More players from 1928 are in the Hall of Fame than from any other year. Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Mel Ott, Tris Speaker, Pete Alexander, Rogers Hornsby, Lefty Grove, Paul Waner, Frankie Frisch, Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Bill Dickey, Mickey Cochrane, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, Heinie Manush, Sam Rice, Goose Goslin, Joe Cronin, George Sisler, Ray Schalk, Ted Lyons, Red Faber, Harry Heilmann, Joe Sewell, Red Ruffing, Jim Bottomley, Chick Hafey, Rabbit Maranville, Jesse Haines, Bill Terry, Fred Lindstrom, Travis Jackson, Edd Rousch, Carl Hubbell, Gabby Hartnett, Hack Wilson, Kiki Cuyler, Lloyd Waner, Pie Traynor, Burleigh Grimes, George Kelly, Eppa Rixey, Dave Bancroft, Max Carey, Al Lopez, Dazzy Vance, Chuck Klein, Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, Herb Pennock, Waite Hoyt and Stan Coveleski were all active in 1928, and all are in the Hall of Fame. (And that's just the players in the American and National Leagues; eleven more Hall of Famers were active in the Negro Leagues. Satchel Paige, Oscar Charleston, Willie Wells, Turkey Stearnes, Cool Papa Bell, Judy Johnson, Martin Dihigo, Pop Lloyd, Bullet Joe Rogan, Smokey Joe Williams and Bill Foster were all active in 1928, bringing the total to 66.) If I had a ballot this year, I would vote for Boggs, Sandberg, Goose Gossage, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Dave Parker and Alan Trammell. I'm well aware that Parker and Trammell have no shot at getting elected, and things are looking grim each year for Blyleven, the Hawk and the Goose. If this were 1928, those five players would all be guaranteed of induction by the Veterans Committee, but that route now appears to be cut off. But this is 2004, and the 1980's, which ended only 15 years ago, aren't getting much respect from the electors. There are a few more to go; looking into the future, I expect that Boggs, Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Tom Glavine, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa will all go in. I will also go out on a limb, and say that Pete Rose will get in eventually as well. Players who might get elected include Gossage, Sutter, Dawson, Sandberg, Tim Raines, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz and Juan Gonzalez. I could also include Blyleven, Dale Murphy and Jim Rice... but does anyone really think they are going to be elected? I don't think so, not unless they are able to lead a Tony Perez-type campaign in their favour. Here are the probable totals for each season from the 1980's:
1980# Players Currently Inducted: 27 1981# Players Currently Inducted: 26 1982# Players Currently Inducted: 26 1983# Players Currently Inducted: 24 1984# Players Currently Inducted: 22 1985# Players Currently Inducted: 21 1986# Players Currently Inducted: 17 1987# Players Currently Inducted: 15 1988# Players Currently Inducted: 13 1989# Players Currently Inducted: 11
There is no season from the 1980's that is guaranteed to have at least 30 representatives in the Hall of Fame, and it is extremely unlikely that any season will approach 35. Compare those numbers to decades past:
(These stats all came from Bill James' book Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame, updated where necessary) As you can see, there are a huge number of players from the 1920's and 1930's in the Hall of Fame. It was a travesty that so many players from that era were elected, but what's done is done. I would be the last person to suggest that 66 players from 1980 should go into the Hall. But don't worry; so far, only 27 are in, and it doesn't look as if there will be many more. Due to expansion, there are almost twice as many players in the game today as there were in 1960. There should be more great players in the game as well; baseball players are recruited from a far greater population base today than ever before. Yet, while the number of players goes up, the number who go into the Hall is going steadily downwards. You might want to argue that the players in the 1980's weren't as great as in other decades. I will concede that there was no Willie Mays or Barry Bonds; but there were a lot of players whose skills were unique to that decade. There has never been another Ryne Sandberg, a Gold Glove second baseman who could steal 50 bases in one season, hit 40 homers in another. No players in baseball history could dominate the basepaths like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines. Ripken, Yount and Trammell redefined the shortstop position by hitting for power and playing good defense. Gossage and Sutter redefined the closer's role, as did Eckersley. When they retired, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton and Bert Blyleven were the three greatest strikeout pitchers ever. Even if my imaginary ballot become reality, and eight players were elected this year, no season from the 1980's would have even 40 active players in the Hall; the most would probably be 38, from 1982. Only by opening the floodgates and letting in a large group of players, with the 1980's achieve equal representation in Cooperstown with past decades. Of course, the Veterans Committee could always have its rules changed in the future, making it easier for the Dawson's and Blyleven's to get in. But why wait? There is no chance of the 1980's being overrepresented in the Hall of Fame, so let's let a few more guys in. Anyways, here's how I would group this year's candidates: THE CREAM OF THE CROP
THE BEST OF THE REST
NOT GREAT, BUT YOU WERE PRETTY DARN GOOD
THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES (from a Blue Jay fan)
WHY HAVEN'T YOU BEEN ELECTED ALREADY????
MISSING FROM THE BALLOT
ONE YEAR ONLY
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