I'm someone who watches baseball - a lot. Since the World Cup started, I've watched dozens of hours of baseball, and only about two minutes of bumblebeeball. So, I become intrigued when I start reading and hearing repeated claims that the game is changing dramatically - and I'm not seeing it. Either they're seeing ghosts - an older version of the game of their youth that they wish was back, but really isn't - or I'm just not paying attention.

There's this article, from Bill Madden of the NY Daily News, on changing demographics:

Baseball undergoing major transition as young stars injecting new life into game

Quote:

Call them the "New Wave Stars" - Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Brennan Boesch, Ike Davis, Mike Leake and Starlin Castro to name just a few - as no one in baseball can remember a year in which so many young impact players have burst onto the major league scene in one year.

Now, I know that most baseball men can only remember 4-5 years in the past before fact and myth start to merge, but there must be somebody who can remember a year with this many impact rookies. Has he asked Pat Gillick?

And this one, from Roy S. Johnson of ESPN, on pitching:

2010: Year of the dominant pitcher

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By now, it should be clear that 2010 is The Year of the Pitcher. Even before Strasburg's gem, the game was being ruled by the men on the mound this season. Three no-hitters before the end of May, two of them perfect games. And, of course, Armando Galarraga's "perfecto" should be added to the tally.

At the moment, 4.48 runs per game are being scored - if it holds up, it will be the lowest rate since 1992 (4.12).

That said I'm pretty sure that 1985 was Year of the Pitcher, Mach II.

Closer to home here in Toronto, Richard Griffin looks changes in the style of play:

Rays leading return to old-time baseball

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In this post-pharmaceutical era of baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays look to have a head start on other teams in terms of returning to the way the game was played decades ago.

I'm not entirely sure what "old-time baseball" is, though I think it's pretty close to this .

On Blue Jays telecasts, announcer Buck Martinez has talked occasionally about the changes in the bodies of the players - a return to athleticism, he (and others) have called it. In his own words:

True perfection in baseball every 130 years

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Buck Martinez has a theory for why the major leagues have seen three perfect games this season, two of them official. The athlete is returning to baseball.

I'm going to focus more on the Madden article. Here's a bit more on changing demographics:

Quote:

One agent agreed there seems to be more talent coming into baseball this season than ever before, but remained skeptical about why so many young players are filling up the rosters while so many others, 34 and older, are being phased out.

"There's a legitimate theory that, without steroids and amphetamines, the game is going to the young players," the agent said. "Then there's the real theory that the younger the players, the lower the payroll, the greater the profit for the owners and the greater the value of the franchises. Take your pick."

First of all, not to be dickish or anything, but if there only seems to be more talent coming into the game than before, then maybe the transition isn't as major as you think it is.

Second, I don't think it's a theory that younger players are cheaper than veterans; I'm pretty sure that's a law.

Third, I was curious about whether it was actually true. Fortunately, Baseball-reference.com happens to list the ages for every player in every year to help us find. I'm sure someone has already done this with better methodology and fewer errors than I can, but it's a lazy Sunday morning and I'm procrasting about doing chores, so here goes:

I divided each year into four age groups, then looked at the number of plate appearances for each age group. I figure that the percentage of young players will go up slightly later in the year when rosters expand, so I looked at last year's numbers as well, and compared them to 2001, which I think was the peak of the Steroid Era.

2010 (June 20)

2009

2001

There is very little difference between this year and last year, except that a whole bunch of 29-year-olds turned 30. The number of players 35-and-over has dropped a percentage point compared to 2001.

Nothing too dramatic there, so I filled in some more years from the past decade:

2007

2005

2003

In 2007, oddly, there was a spike in both young players and older ones.*

Of course, this doesn't measure whether today's young players are more impactful than in past years. Maybe they are - though the kids from 2007 (Joe Mauer, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Robinson Cano, Troy Tulowitzki, Felix Hernandez, etc.) didn't suck. Heyward and Strasberg have certainly been impressive - but they've got a ways to go to match the debuts of Albert Pujols and C.C. Sabathia (and Ichiro Suzuki) in 2001.

Some more years:

1999

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

In 1975, Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson were the only players in their 40's.

For the most part, the number of players 35-and-over has been trending upwards for the past 20 years, though it's come down again the past couple of years. But even in the heart of the steroid era, the number of old players is dwarfed by 1985, when there was a crazy spike in the number of old fogies in the game (who then vanished five years later).**

The number of young players in the game spiked in the middle of decade; it's now a little higher than it was ten years ago, but not as high as in the 1990s. And we have a long ways to go before matching 1975, when 26.8% of PAs were taken by players 24-and-younger.

As mentioned earlier, run scoring (4.48 runs per game) is at its lowest level in 18 years. But scoring usually goes up during the summer; two years ago (post-Mitchell Report) we were making a big deal out of the lack of scoring (4.54 runs per game on June 20, 2008) but it went up and finished at 4.65.

Maybe the elites are doing better than in past years - certainly, Ubaldo Jimenez has been awesome. That was true in 1985, when run scoring was up compared to the previous five years, but individuals were either awesome (Gooden 24-4 1.53 ERA, Tudor 10 shutouts, Saberhagen, Hershiser, etc.) or just interesting (Blyleven's 24 complete games, Tom Browning's 20 wins as a rookie, etc.)

I don't know if there is a way to measure athleticism - there are currently 0.63 stolen bases per game, the highest rate since 2001, when there were 0.64. The rate in triples has not changed in 15 years. There have been 0.34 sacrific bunts per game, the highest since 2004, when there were 0.36.

I'm not a statistician, so I'm not going to read too much into the numbers. We may be seeing the beginning of small incremental changes in the game - I don't know if that has to do with the alleged end of the Steroid Era, or whether it's because the game has always, eternally, been undergoing incremental changes, that wind up being big changes when you look back 35 years.

But I can't honestly say that I see the big dramatic changes in the game - it's baseball. I have no doubt that we are headed into a new era that will eventually look a lot different - I expect that expanded instant replay will change the game in a few ways. But to expect that it will revert to the game of 30 or 40 years ago is probably more wishful thinking than anything else; once the game has moved past an era, it's never gone back.

* When I saw the 2007 numbers - 16.3% of plate appearances by players 24-and-younger - I thought I made a mistake. And it's still possible that I did; but anyways, here is a list of players from that group who had at least 400 ABs, compared to players from this season who are projected to reach that total:

** The dramatic rise - and subsequent crash - in older regulars in the mid-80's was quite something. Here's a list of players in that age group with at least 500 PAs in 1985:

The above numbers, arranged differently:

18-24

25-29

30-34

35+