Looking ahead: The Seattle Mariners Print E-mail
Saturday, 13 March 2010

The Seattle Mariners are one of the more interesting teams in baseball, for all sorts of reasons. For one thing, they appear to be going for it; they made a bunch of offseason moves, most notably trading some nice prospects for Cliff Lee, so one presumes that they're going for it. That's always fun.

Second, the Mariners were an extreme team last season. They allowed the fewest runs of any team in the league - yay! - but were also dead last in runs scored - boo :(. Even if you account for the park, they were first and last on those sides of the field. They managed to squeak four games over .500, although they were eight games over their Pythagorean record.

Third, it appears that Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik - who has been on the job for all of 18 months - decided to build the team around defence, and then actually went out and did it. I mean, really did it; GMs talk shit all the time about team defence, but rarely follow through on it. Zduriencik inherited two great defensive players, Ichiro and Adrian Beltre, and a guy with a good reputation, Yuniesky Betancourt. He then added Franklin Gutierrez to the mix in a wild 3-team. 12-player deal.

Gutierrez consistently had great defensive statistics in Cleveland, but was stuck in the corner outfield spots with Grady Sizemore in centre. The Mariners made him their centre fielder, and he had the best defensive stats in the league (but didn't win a Gold Glove). I have no idea whether the Mariners rely on scouts or stats, doesn't matter - they found a legitimately great defensive player whose skills were being wasted, and they went out and got him. And as a bonus, he also hit pretty well.

All year long, they had Gutierrez in centre and Ichiro and right - and on the days when then either Endy Chavez or Ryan Langerhans playing left, they might have had one of the greatest defensive outfields ever.

Betancourt is an athletic shortstop who makes some dazzling plays in the field, and has sometimes been touted as a Gold Glove candidate. But his stats haven't been very good the last couple of years; again, I don't know how Zduriencik makes decisions, but the Mariners cut him loose in the midseason, and acquired a new shortstop - veteran Jack Wilson from the Pirates - who is a fine shortstop by pretty much any measure.

Looking ahead to 2010, their defence could be as good or even better. They lost a defensive star - Adrian Beltre - but replaced him with another, Chone Figgins. They will have Jack Wilson for the whole season. Casey Kotchman is the new first baseman. Eric Byrnes is the new left fielder, and Langerhans is still around. If nothing else, they are some kind of defensive team.

Reasons to be optimistic:

  • the Angels can't win forever. With the loss of both Figgins (to Seattle) and John Lackey and Vlad Guerrero to free agency, their depth may be depleted enough to make them vulnerable
  • team defence (already discussed)
  • two top Cy Young candidates (Cliff Lee and King Felix) and some decent depth beyond that. Erik Bedard is still kicking around and might be able to contribute; Ian Snell is still young, and is certainly capable of being a better pitcher than he has been the past two seasons
  • a possibly stronger lineup, with Chone Figgins replacing Adrian Beltre. They also picked up Milton Bradley for, almost literally, nothing. The focus is always on Milton's behaviour, but he can be really great in the right situation

Reasons to be pessimistic

  • the Pythagorean thing. Remember that the 2007 Mariners finished seven games above their Pythag record, which gave them enough confidence to make the Erik Bedard trade. Both the manager and GM were fired a few weeks into the season. The Mariners have been such a yo-yo the last four years that it's really hard to get a read on how good they actually are
  • no power. Their only 30-homer guy from last season, Russell Branyan, has been replaced by light-hitting Casey Kotchman. Chone Figgins is a really good player, and he should make them better - but he has pretty much the same skill sets as Ichiro Suzuki. And having TWO of those guys is kinda pointless if there is no one to drive them in.
  • the bullpen. It was very good in 2009 after a rough start; David Aardsma stepped into the breach and saved 38 games, and the rest of the pen fell into place. But there have been many cases in the past where a group of no-names have come together and had a great year - and then collapsed.

Zduriencik, perhaps sensing this, made a very risky deal - trading former top prospect (and failed closer) Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for steady-good-but-nothing-great reliever Brandon League. He's solid depth, if nothing else.

That said, the Mariners are still my pick to win the division in 2010. My head tells me that's wrong - that the reasons for pessimism outweigh the reasons for optimism. But I like and respect risky GMs - especially those who take risks based on cold, hard objective evidence. Jack Zduriencik seems to be that.

And they got King Felix, man... as a baseball fan, how do you not hitch your wagon to him?

 
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