imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap imagemap
ATLANTA - Greg Maddux 37 R and Russ Ortiz 29 R and Paul Byrd 32 R and Mike Hampton 31 L
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
MADDUX
2000 ATL 19 9 35 35 6 3 0 249 225 42 190 300
2001 ATL 17 11 34 34 3 3 0 233 220 27 173 305
2002 ATL 16 6 34 34 0 0 0 199 194 45 118 262
ORTIZ
2000 SF 14 12 33 32 0 0 0 196 192 112 167 501
2001 SF 17 9 33 33 1 1 0 219 187 91 169 329
2002 SF 14 10 33 33 2 0 0 214 191 94 137 361
BYRD
2000 PHI 2 9 17 15 0 0 0 83 89 35 53 651
2001 PHI-KC 6 7 19 16 1 0 0 103 120 26 52 444
2002 KC 17 11 33 33 7 2 0 228 224 38 129 390
HAMPTON
2000 NYM 15 10 33 33 3 1 0 218 194 99 151 314
2001 COL 14 13 32 32 2 1 0 203 236 85 122 541
2002 COL 7 15 30 30 0 0 0 179 228 91 74 615
      Swirls of doubt surround the Braves' starting rotation entering the 2003 season. Glavine and Millwood are gone; this will be the first season in a long, long time that the Braves' starting pitchers aren't obviously better than everyone else's.
      That said, they are still OK. Maddux can still get people out. Russ Ortiz has pitched very well the past few years and had a terrific postseason with the Giants; he's a guy that most teams would like to have. I wouldn't bet on Paul Byrd pitching as well as he did last year, but then, Byrd has never had Leo Mazzone as he pitching coach.
      It's a good staff but not a great one, not unless Mike Hampton regains his pre-Coors form. Remember Hampton? He's the dunderhead who left Shea Stadium to pitch in Coors, thinking that one was like the other. He got rich but his career is in chaos and Mazzone might be the only person on this planet who can restore order.
      I'm going to pass on making a prediction about Hampton in 2003; I really have no clue. The best thing that you can say about Hampton is that Darryl Kile struggled just as badly when he was in Colorado, and managed to revive his career (for what it's worth, Kile also happened to be 31 years old when he left the Rockies for St. Louis).
ARIZONA - Randy Johnson 40 L and Curt Schilling 36 R and Elmer Dessens 31 R and Miguel Batista 32 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
JOHNSON
2000 ARI19 735 35830 249 20276 347 264
2001 ARI21 635 34320 250 18171 372 249
2002 ARI 24 5 35 35 8 4 0 260 197 71 334 232
SCHILLING
2000 PHI-ARI 11 12 29 29 8 2 0 210 204 45 168 381
2001 ARI 22 6 35 35 6 1 0 257 237 39 293 298
2002 ARI 23 7 36 35 5 1 0 259 218 33 316 323
DESSENS
2000 CIN 11 5 40 16 1 0 0 147 170 43 85 428
2001 CIN 10 14 34 34 1 1 0 205 221 56 128 448
2002 CIN 7 8 30 30 0 0 0 178 173 49 93 303
BATISTA
2000 MON-KC 2 7 18 9 0 0 0 65 85 37 37 854
2001 ARI 11 8 48 18 0 0 0 139 113 60 90 336
2002 ARI 8 9 36 29 1 0 0 185 172 70 112 429
      Randy Schilling and Curt Johnson have perhaps solidified their claim as the best one-two punch in baseball history. Drysdale and Koufax? They were great, but Koufax wasn't better than Johnson, and Drysdale never had back-to-back seasons as good as Schilling's last two. Maddux and Glavine? They were together longer, and were perhaps comparable from 1997-98. Maddux had his two best seasons shortened by the strike.
      The DBacks enter 2003 with the same half-empty/half-full outlook with their pitching staff. If the glass is half-full, then the DBacks are led by Johnson, the planet's best pitcher, and the formidable Schilling. If the glass is half-empty, then the DBacks are led by two pitchers who are freakin' old, and beyond them there is no one but Elmer Dessens.
      It will happen, soon. Johnson and Schilling aren't going to pitch forever. There is no evidence that either one is going to decline, but it is extremely likely that least one of them will suffer an injury.
FLORIDA - AJ Burnett 26 R and Josh Beckett 23 R and Mark Redmon 29 L and Brad Penny 25 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
BURNETT
2000 FLO 3 7 13 13 0 0 0 83 80 44 57 479
2001 FLO 11 12 27 27 2 1 0 173 145 83 128 405
2002 FLO 12 9 31 29 7 5 0 204 153 90 203 330
BECKETT
2001 A 6 0 13 12 0 0 0 66 32 15 101 123
2001 AA 8 1 13 13 0 0 0 74 50 19 102 182
2002 FLO 6 7 23 21 0 0 0 108 93 44 113 410
REDMAN
2000 MIN 12 9 32 24 0 0 0 151 168 45 117 476
2001 MIN-DET 2 6 11 11 0 0 0 58 68 23 33 450
2002 DET 8 15 30 30 3 0 0 203 211 51 109 421
PENNY
2000 FLO 8 7 23 22 0 0 0 120 120 60 80 481
2001 FLO 10 10 31 31 1 1 0 205 183 54 154 369
2002 FLO 8 7 24 24 1 1 0 129 148 50 93 466
      The dynamic young duo of Burnett and Beckett didn't quite arrive, but they showed enough promise to justify the hype. Burnett in particular was bloody spectacular at times, leading the league with five shutouts and allowing the fewer hits per game than anyone in the league. He also missed a month with a bone bruise on his pitching elbow.
      Beckett made three trips to the disabled list with recurring blister problems. When healthy, he was inconsistent but good, striking out over a batter per game. And speaking of injuries, Brad Penny missed several weeks with a sore bicep, and also developed the dreaded blister problem. Mark Redman, pitching with the Tigers, had his fine season ended early by a ubiquitious "dead arm".
      Neither Burnett nor Beckett, at first glance, had a career threatening injury. I'm less sure about Penny, but he looked like a good pitcher in 2001 and is still young. Redman was often terrific for Detroit, but he better be hoping that his arm isn't dead but is merely sleeping (Redman also missed much of 2001 with a triceps injury).
      If you are a Marlins fan, what you have to be worried about most is Jeff Torborg's habit of letting Burnett throw 135 pitches in a start. I'm guessing that 1 in 10 pitchers can handle that amount on a regular basis; I don't see what the logic is in testing Burnett to see if he can handle the workload.
PHILADELPHIA - Randy Wolf 27 L and Kevin Millwood 28 R and Vincent Padilla 26 R and Brandon Duckworth 28 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
WOLF
2000 PHI 11 9 32 32 1 0 0 206 210 83 160 436
2001 PHI 10 11 28 25 4 2 0 163 150 51 152 370
2002 PHI 11 9 31 31 3 2 0 211 172 63 172 320
MILLWOOD
2000 ATL 10 13 36 35 0 0 0 213 213 62 168 466
2001 ATL 7 7 21 21 0 0 0 121 121 40 84 431
2002 ATL 18 8 35 34 1 1 0 217 186 65 178 324
PADILLA
2000 ARI-PHI 4 7 55 0 0 0 2 65 72 28 51 372
2001 PHI 3 1 23 0 0 0 0 34 36 12 29 424
2002 PHI 14 11 32 32 1 1 0 206 198 53 128 328
DUCKWORTH
2000 AA 13 7 27 27 1 0 0 165 145 52 178 316
2001 AAA 13 2 22 20 2 1 0 147 122 36 150 263
2001 PHI 3 2 11 11 0 0 0 69 57 29 40 352
2002 PHI 8 9 30 29 0 0 0 163 167 69 167 541
      There are a number of reasons to like the Phillies in 2003, but the potential of their starting rotation is a key strength. Vincent Padilla had a fine year and was an All-Star, but probably enters 2003 as the #3 starter. Padilla is young and good; he just needs to pump up his strikeout rate and probably will.
      Randy Wolf had almost the exact same season that he had in 2001. He struggled early on, but after the All-Star break was one of the best pitchers in baseball. There is no reason why Wolf can't be a top contender for the Cy Young Award... I've been saying that for three years, but really, 18-20 wins is well within his grasp if he can just find a way to hit his stride before mid-June.
      What a year for Kevin Millwood. His career had been drifting since his brilliant 1999 season; his shoulder problems had taken a significant bite out of all of his pitches, and there was reason to think that he may never come back to full strength. Last year he had a 4.50 ERA in April, a 4.29 ERA in May... and then things clicked. He was back among the best pitchers in baseball from June onwards; after the All-Star break, Millwood was 12-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has always been a brilliant pitcher when healthy; assuming that he is back to where he was three years ago, then he is one of the best pitchers in the league.
      Brandon Duckworth had a disappointing season, but should be back in the rotation. I'm optimistic about his future; despite his struggles, he still posted an outstanding strikeout rate and strikeout/walk ratio. He will have a good year.
      The theft of Kevin Millwood from the Braves has forced people to sit up and take the Phillies seriously. All four of these pitchers should be real good in 2003, and young Brett Myers provides even more depth. It's been awhile since the Phillies had this many impressive starting pitchers. If Larry Bowa can show a modicum of patience and resist sending Wolf to the bullpen in May, then this staff can carry the team to the postseason.
CHICAGO CUBS - Kerry Wood 26 R and Matt Clement 29 and Mark Prior 23 R and Shawn Estes 30 L
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
WOOD
2000 CHC 8 7 23 23 1 0 0 137 112 87 132 480
2001 CHC 12 6 28 28 1 1 0 174 127 92 217 336
2002 CHC 12 11 33 33 4 1 0 214 169 97 217 366
CLEMENT
2000 SD 13 17 34 34 0 0 0 205 194 125 170 514
2001 FLO 9 10 31 31 0 0 0 169 172 85 134 505
2002 CHC 12 11 32 32 3 2 0 205 162 85 215 360
PRIOR
2002 CHC 6 6 19 19 1 0 0 117 98 38 147 332
ESTES
2000 SF 15 6 30 30 4 0 0 190 194 108 136 426
2001 SF 9 8 27 27 0 0 0 159 151 77 109 402
2002 NYM-CIN 5 12 29 29 1 1 0 161 171 83 109 510
      Baseball fans in Chicago are foaming at the mouth over the potential of the Cubbies' starting rotation this year. I have an ingrained skepticism about everything related to the Cubs, but I admit to feeling somewhat giddy about the prospect of Wood, Prior and Clement all realizing their potential in the same season. All three have electrifying stuff; Wood looks healthy, Clement looks like he knows what he's doing on the mound, Prior looks like The Natural.
      And besides, it can happen. Greg Maddux was once a Cub. So was Ferguson Jenkins. And Three-Fingered Brown. This team does produce a great pitcher every few decades. All they need to do is beat the odds, and produce three in the same season. Good luck, Dusty.
SAN FRANCISCO - Jason Schmidt 30 R and Kirk Rueter 32 L and Livan Hernandez 28 R and Damian Moss 26 L
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
SCHMIDT
2000 PIT 2 5 11 11 0 0 0 63 71 41 51 540
2001 PIT-SF 13 7 25 25 1 0 0 150 138 61 142 407
2002 SF 13 8 29 29 2 2 0 185 148 73 196 345
RUETER
2000 SF 11 9 32 31 0 0 0 184 205 62 71 396
2001 SF 14 12 34 34 0 0 0 195 213 66 83 442
2002 SF 14 8 33 33 0 0 0 204 204 54 76 323
MOSS
2000 AAA 9 6 29 28 0 0 0 161 130 106 123 314
2001 AA-AAA 5 5 20 18 0 0 0 98 83 38 104 313
2002 ATL 12 6 33 29 0 0 0 179 140 89 111 342
HERNANDEZ
2000 SF 17 11 33 33 5 2 0 240 254 73 165 375
2001 SF 13 15 34 34 2 0 0 227 266 85 138 524
2002 SF 12 16 33 33 5 3 0 216 233 71 134 438
      The Giants' starting rotation was good enough to get the team into the World Series last year, but the winds of change are blowing. Ace Russ Ortiz has already been dealt, with Damian Moss coming from Atlanta. Moss is a good young pitcher, and Jason Schmidt is outstanding, but the clock is ticking on the others. Livan Hernandez has pitched poorly the last two seasons, and his playoff mystique was shattered in the postseason. Kirk Rueter is a good pitcher in the Paul Splittorff/Scott McGregor model, and likely will see his performance falter in another year.
      Fortunately for the Giants, help is on the way. Kurt Ainsworth started four games with the Giants, and pitched very well. He's a sensational young prospect who could win a starting job in the spring, and will almost certainly be in the rotation by midsummer. Jesse Foppert is also a spectacular young talent, will probably start the year in AAA but could make an impact this season. The Giants have a lot of good young pitchers; they just need their five veterans (including Ryan Jensen) to hold the fort until the kids have finished baking.
LOS ANGELES - Odalis Perez 26 L and Kevin Brown 38 R and Hideo Nomo 35 R and Andy Ashby 36 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
PEREZ
2000 ATL 4 6 18 17 0 0 0 93 100 53 82 600
2001 ATL 7 8 24 16 0 0 0 95 108 39 71 491
2002 LA 15 10 32 32 4 2 0 222 182 38 155 300
BROWN
2000 LA 13 6 33 33 5 1 0 230 181 47 216 258
2001 LA 10 4 20 19 1 0 0 116 94 38 104 265
2002 LA 3 4 17 10 0 0 0 64 68 23 58 481
NOMO
2000 DET 8 12 32 31 1 0 0 190 191 89 181 474
2001 BOS 13 10 33 33 2 2 0 198 171 96 220 450
2002 LA 16 6 34 34 0 0 0 220 189 101 193 339
ASHBY
2000 PHI-ATL 12 13 31 31 3 1 0 199 216 61 106 492
2001 LA 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 12 14 1 7 386
2002 LA 9 13 30 30 0 0 0 182 179 65 107 391
      Kevin Brown still has three years left on that monster deal he signed four years ago. In each of his four years with the Dodgers, his win total has dropped, and is now reaching a critical stage...
      The Dodgers had pretty good starting pitching last year, but they are also kinda old and run down. Perez is a stud, but Brown and Ashby could both be a pitch away from ending their careers. Nomo is still good but is also turning 35; Kaz Ishii had a solid start to his first season, but stopped throwing strikes and then was hit in the head by a batted ball. His future is in some doubt.
      Darren Dreifort is coming back from rehab, and will get every chance to win a spot in the rotation. The Dodgers still owe him a lot of money on that huge contract they gave him a couple of years ago. He really wasn't all that good before the injury, and can't be counted on to contribute this season.
NEW YORK METS - Al Leiter 37 L and Tom Glavine 37 L and Pedro Astacio 33 R and Steve Trachsel 32 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
LEITER
2000 NYM 16 8 31 31 2 1 0 208 176 76 200 320
2001 NYM 11 11 29 29 0 0 0 187 178 46 142 331
2002 NYM 13 13 33 33 2 2 0 204 194 69 172 348
GLAVINE
2000 ATL 21 9 35 35 4 2 0 241 222 65 152 340
2001 ATL 16 7 35 35 1 1 0 219 213 97 116 357
2002 ATL 18 11 36 36 2 1 0 225 210 78 127 296
ASTACIO
2000 COL 12 9 32 32 3 0 0 196 217 77 193 527
2001 COL-HOU 8 14 26 26 4 1 0 170 181 54 144 509
2002 NYM 12 11 31 31 3 1 0 192 192 63 152 479
TRACHSEL
2000 TAM-TOR 8 15 34 34 3 1 0 201 232 74 110 480
2001 NYM 11 13 28 28 1 1 0 174 168 47 144 446
2002 NYM 11 11 30 30 1 1 0 174 170 69 105 337
      Hey, the Mets have an old pitching staff. What are the chances, do you think, that Steve Trachsel will lead the team in wins this year? I bet it's at least 50/50. Glavine and Leiter are both 37. Astacio has had serious injury problems. Trachsel is the youngest of the group, and has also pitched fairly well the past couple of years.
MONTREAL - Javier Vazquez 27 R and Tony Armas Jr 25 R and Tomo Ohka 27 R and Orlando Hernandez 37 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
VAZQUEZ
2000 MON 11 9 33 33 2 1 0 218 247 61 196 405
2001 MON 16 11 32 32 5 3 0 224 197 44 208 342
2002 MON 10 13 34 34 2 0 0 230 243 49 179 391
ARMAS
2000 MON 7 9 17 17 0 0 0 95 74 50 59 436
2001 MON 9 14 34 34 0 0 0 197 180 91 176 403
2002 MON 12 12 29 29 0 0 0 164 149 78 131 444
OHKA
2000 BOS 3 6 13 12 0 0 0 69 70 26 40 312
2001 BOS-MON 3 9 22 21 0 0 0 107 134 29 68 547
2002 MON 13 8 32 31 2 0 0 193 194 45 118 318
HERNANDEZ
2000 NYY 12 13 29 29 3 0 0 196 186 51 141 451
2001 NYY 4 7 17 16 0 0 0 95 90 42 77 485
2002 NYY 8 5 24 22 0 0 1 146 131 36 113 364
      Pitchers are weird, Part One: Tomo Ohka went 15-0 at Pawtucket in 1999; the Red Sox then began to come up with reasons why he wasn't a good pitcher. He was given a couple of half-hearted opportunities to crack the Red Sox rotation, didn't fare so well and was traded to the Expos in return for Ugueth Urbina. The Expos were accused of dumping salary, which of course they were, but after Ohka's fine performance last year it appears they have won that deal.
      Pitchers are weird, Part Two: The Expos had a winning season last year, amazing when you consider that their best two pitchers had disappointing seasons. Vazquez pitched brilliantly in the second half of 2001; he was good last year, but took a half-step backwards. He will have better seasons. Tony Armas will likely pitch better as well, but he has a couple of problems. (1) He needs to walk fewer batters, and (2) Although he is super-nasty against right-handers, he gets the bejeezus beat out of him by lefties. It would also be encouraging if he could throw more than 200 innings in a season.
      C'est What? So one moment you are wearing Yankee pinstripes and starring in the World Series, and the next... well, I hope Orlando Hernandez enjoys his time in Montreal. Hernandez pitched pretty well last season despite the age and the injuries; if he can give the Expos 15-20 starts then they should be happy.
HOUSTON - Wade Miller 27 R and Roy Oswalt 26 R and Shane Reynolds 35 R and Tim Redding 25 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
MILLER
2000 HOU 6 6 16 16 2 0 0 105 104 42 89 514
2001 HOU 16 8 32 32 1 0 0 212 183 76 183 340
2002 HOU 15 4 26 26 1 1 0 165 151 62 144 328
OSWALT
2000 AA 11 4 19 18 2 2 0 130 106 22 141 194
2001 HOU 14 3 28 20 3 1 0 142 126 24 144 273
2002 HOU 19 9 35 34 0 0 0 233 215 62 208 301
REYNOLDS
2000 HOU 7 8 22 22 0 0 0 131 150 45 93 522
2001 HOU 14 11 28 28 3 0 0 183 208 36 102 434
2002 HOU 3 6 13 13 0 0 0 74 80 26 47 486
REDDING
2000 A 12 5 24 24 0 0 0 155 125 57 170 268
2001 AA-AAA 14 3 20 20 1 1 0 128 86 44 155 288
2001 HOU 3 1 13 9 0 0 0 56 62 24 55 550
2002 HOU 3 6 18 14 0 0 0 73 78 35 63 540
      The Astros were relying heavily on some young pitchers last season; two of them, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, were spectacular. The other two, Carlos Hernandez and Tim Redding, were not effective. Two-for-four is a good record as far as young pitchers are concerned, but the Astros' inability to find any solid veteran pitching cost them. Redding will be given another chance, and should have a better season; but the guy they really like, Hernandez, is going under the knife and is gone for the year.
      The candidates to back up the three kids are veterans Shane Reynolds and Brian Moehler, both of whom are returning from rehab, and journeyman Pete Munro. The Cardinals always find a way to bolster their pitching staff, and the Astros will have to keep pace; there's no reason that a team with Oswalt and Miller can't make the playoffs.
ST LOUIS - Matt Morris 29 R and Woody Williams 37 R and Jason Simontacchi 29 R and Brett Tomko 30 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
MORRIS
2000 STL 3 3 31 0 0 0 4 53 53 17 34 357
2001 STL 22 8 34 34 2 1 0 216 218 54 185 316
2002 STL 17 9 32 32 1 1 0 210 210 64 171 342
WILLIAMS
2000 SD 10 8 23 23 4 0 0 168 152 54 111 375
2001 SD-STL 15 9 34 34 3 1 0 220 224 56 154 405
2002 STL 9 4 17 17 1 0 0 103 84 25 76 253
SIMONTACCHI
2001 AAA 7 13 32 18 2 0 0 143 192 23 83 534
2002 AAA 5 1 6 6 0 0 0 42 44 5 28 234
2002 STL 11 5 24 24 0 0 0 143 134 54 72 402
TOMKO
2000 SEA 7 5 32 8 0 0 1 92 92 40 59 468
2001 SEA 3 1 11 4 0 0 0 35 42 15 22 519
2002 SD 10 10 32 32 3 0 0 204 212 60 126 449
      The Cardinals won 97 games last year. I wonder how many they might have won if their pitching staff had not been repeatedly struck by disaster over the past few years. Consider:
      — Alan Benes, a brilliant young pitcher in 1997, tears his rotator cuff and never regains his form
      — Matt Morris, another brilliant young pitcher in 1997, tears his rotator cuff and then blows out his elbow. It took him four years to come back.
      — Rick Ankiel, the best young pitcher in baseball and a brilliant rookie in 2000, loses his marbles and hurts his arm, and has yet to come back.
      — Darryl Kile, an outstanding veteran, dies suddenly in midseason in 2002.
      Those are the major calamities that come immediately to mind, though there have been other minor ones (Bud Smith). Young pitchers get hurt; that's a fact of life. But the Cardinals have produced some exceptional young pitchers the past few years, with only Morris fulfilling his potential.
      LaRussa and Duncan, of course, are masters at finding journeymen and people named Simontacchi to fill out holes in the rotation. Can they be blamed for the injuries that have struck the Cardinals' best pitchers? Obviously, Kile's death was a sad twist of fate. Benes and Morris were probably hurt before they joined the Cardinals. And Ankiel... I don't know what to think about him. His case is just too bizarre.
      I'm a fan of Tony LaRussa, so I'll maintain that he's done a good job keeping this team competitive, often with a patched up pitching staff. More of the same this year; the Cardinals' hopes are pinned on the good health of Morris and Williams, and they are no sure bet. Chances are, one or the other will go down during the season; the Cardinals have also signed Chris Carpenter, who had surgery after the season but could return to take a spot in the rotation in August.
CINCINNATI - Danny Graves 30 R and Ryan Dempster 26 R and Jimmy Haynes 31 R and Paul Wilson 30 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
DEMPSTER
2000 FLO 14 10 33 33 2 1 0 226 210 97 209 366
2001 FLO 15 12 34 34 2 1 0 211 218 112 171 494
2002 FLO-CIN 10 13 33 33 4 0 0 209 228 93 153 538
GRAVES
2000 CIN 10 5 66 0 0 0 30 91 81 42 53 256
2001 CIN 6 5 66 0 0 0 32 80 83 18 49 415
2002 CIN 7 3 68 4 0 0 32 99 99 25 58 319
HAYNES
2000 MIL 12 13 33 33 0 0 0 199 228 100 88 533
2001 MIL 8 17 31 29 0 0 0 173 182 78 112 485
2002 CIN 15 10 34 34 0 0 0 197 210 81 126 412
WILSON
2000 TAM 1 4 11 7 0 0 0 51 38 16 40 335
2001 TAM 8 9 37 24 0 0 0 151 165 52 119 488
2002 TAM 6 12 30 30 1 0 0 194 219 67 111 483
      The Reds' starting rotation has a lot of question marks this year. This is a good thing; last year, there were no question marks at all. They were just bad, bad, bad, bad. The Reds threw in the towel on opening day when Joey Hamilton started the first game, but some bold moves made during and after the season has made this a staff to watch.
      The first obvious question is whether or not Danny Graves is going to make it as a starter. Graves was a good closer, one of the few who could get more than three outs in a game. But he blew a handful of saves and the Reds have more relievers than starters, so they gave him four starts. He pitched brilliantly, and is now an official member of the starting rotation. Obviously, the success of Derek Lowe caught the Reds' attention; my guess is that Graves stays healthy and wins 12-15 games.
      The second obvious question is what the heck do the Reds have in Ryan Dempster? Two years ago I thought he was going to win a Cy Young Award; now I am worried about the whiplash he received watching all those balls whiz by his head. He's a good pitcher, but needs to work stuff out.
      After that there are no obvious questions, except maybe to ask which Paul Wilson will show up. This rotation is far from solid, but it is interesting and has potential, as do the Reds themselves.
SAN DIEGO - Brian Lawrence 27 R and Oliver Perez 22 L and Adam Eaton 25 R and Jake Peavy 22 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
LAWRENCE
2000 AA-AAA 11 6 29 29 0 0 0 173 147 35 165 228
2001 AAA 1 3 9 8 0 0 0 45 42 17 42 380
2001 SD 5 5 27 15 1 0 0 115 107 34 84 345
2002 SD 12 12 35 31 2 2 0 210 230 52 149 369
PEREZ
2001 A 10 9 28 28 0 0 0 154 129 68 160 320
2002 SD 4 5 16 15 0 0 0 90 71 48 94 350
EATON
2000 SD 7 4 22 22 0 0 0 135 134 61 90 413
2001 SD 8 5 17 17 2 0 0 117 108 40 109 432
2002 SD 1 1 6 6 0 0 0 33 28 17 25 540
PEAVY
2000 A 13 8 26 25 0 0 0 134 107 53 164 290
2001 A 7 5 19 19 0 0 0 105 76 33 144 308
2002 AA 4 5 14 14 0 0 0 80 65 30 89 280
2002 SD 6 7 17 17 0 0 0 98 106 33 90 452
      The Padres had more pitchers than peanut vendors last year, giving almost everybody in the organization a chance to pitch with the big club. They discovered that Brian Lawrence is a good pitcher, and he enters 2003 as the ace of the staff. Lawrence is a solid citizen who should be good for 12-15 wins this year.
      After him, the Padres' rotation gets both unpredictable and exciting. They have two pitchers, Oliver Perez and Jake Peavy, who are have a ridiculous amount of talent. Perez basically skipped two levels of ball and, at age 21, blew away major league hitters. He's young, he's electric, he's a little wild, he was rushed to the majors... his career could develop in any number of ways.
      Ditto for Peavy, who is also 21; he didn't pitch quite as well as Perez but he did get in 14 starts in Double-A and his control was a little better.
      The Padres are loaded with outstanding young pitchers. Ben Howard and Dennis (don't call me Eck) Tankersley are pretty good too, and will get a shot at the rotation.
      Adam Eaton used to be a good young pitcher before he blew his arm out. He came back last season, and pitched well enough that he will get first dibs on a starting job.
PITTSBURGH - Kris Benson 28 R and Kip Wells 26 R and Josh Fogg 26 R and Jeff Suppan 28 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
BENSON
2000 PIT 10 12 32 32 2 1 0 218 206 86 184 385
2001
INJURED - DID NOT PITCH
2002 PIT 9 6 25 25 0 0 0 130 152 50 79 470
WELLS
2000 CHW 6 9 20 20 0 0 0 99 126 58 71 602
2001 CHW 10 11 40 20 0 0 0 133 145 61 99 479
2002 PIT 12 14 33 33 1 1 0 199 197 71 134 358
FOGG
2000 AA 11 7 27 27 2 0 0 192 190 44 136 257
2001 AAA 4 7 40 16 0 0 4 115 129 30 89 479
2002 PIT 12 12 33 33 0 0 0 194 199 69 113 435
SUPPAN
2000 KC 10 9 35 33 3 1 0 217 240 84 128 494
2001 KC 10 14 34 34 1 0 0 218 227 74 120 437
2002 KC 9 16 33 33 3 1 0 208 229 68 109 532
      GM Dave Littlefield inherited one of the worst starting rotations in baseball when he took over last season. But he made the trade of the year when he dumped Todd Ritchie on the White Sox in exchange for Kip Wells, Josh Fogg and Sean Lowe. Both Wells and Fogg had good years, breathing new life into the Pirates' pitching staff.
      More help arrived in the form of Kris Benson, the team's ace from two years ago. Benson missed all of 2001 after undergoing elbow surgery; his comeback started slowly, and at the All-Star break he was 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA. After the break he was 7-2 with an 4.15 ERA, and started to look more like the ace from two years ago.
      This staff still needs some work, but it is headed in the right direction. Obviously, Benson's health is a concern. Wells is solid, but I am less sold on Fogg, whose control deserted him in the second half of last season. As well as he pitched last year, Fogg will have to prove again that he has command of his pitches.
      Rounding out the rotation is Jeff Suppan, and we all know what he can and can't do. Last year, the Pirates didn't have any pitchers who were better than Suppan, and now they have three; things are looking up.
COLORADO - Denny Neagle 35 L and Jason Jennings 25 R and Denny Stark 28 R and Shawn Chacon 25 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
NEAGLE
2000 CIN-NYY 15 9 32 31 1 0 0 209 210 81 146 452
2001 COL 9 8 30 30 0 0 0 171 192 60 139 538
2002 COL 8 11 35 28 1 0 0 164 170 63 111 526
JENNINGS
2000 A 7 10 22 22 3 1 0 150 136 42 133 347
2000 AA 1 3 6 6 0 0 0 37 32 11 33 344
2001 AA-AAA 9 8 26 26 4 0 0 157 170 49 134 442
2001 COL 4 1 7 7 1 1 0 39 42 19 26 458
2002 COL 16 8 32 32 0 0 0 185 201 70 127 452
STARK
2000 AA 4 3 8 8 1 0 0 49 31 17 42 219
2001 AAA 14 2 24 24 0 0 0 152 124 41 130 237
2002 COL 11 4 32 20 0 0 0 128 108 64 64 400
CHACON
2000 AA 10 10 27 27 4 0 0 174 151 85 172 316
2001 COL 6 10 27 27 0 0 0 160 157 87 134 506
2002 COL 5 11 21 21 0 0 0 119 122 60 67 573
      The Rockies have completed their first decade in Colorado. The score: Ballparks 10, Pitchers 0.
      It doesn't matter who the pitchers are or what pitches they throw are what they have done in the past. Coors Field always wins.
      An attempt was made to give the pitchers a helping hand last year; baseballs were placed in a humidor, in the hopes the extra humidity would deaden the balls a little. Scoring was down a little bit last year, which may have been the effect of the humidor or maybe just a one year fluke. Anyways, the park still won; it is still by far the best hitters park in baseball, not even close.
      If I were the Rockies, I wouldn't give up on the humidor experiment. Maybe add some foul territory as well. But the team has to score; Denny Neagle's a good pitcher and so is Jason Jennings and maybe the other guys, but none of them will have sustained success in Colorado, not unless the Rockies get some hitters and start scoring seven runs per game.
MILWAUKEE - Ben Sheets 25 R and Glendon Rusch 28 L and Dave Mlicki 35 R and Todd Ritchie 31 R
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
SHEETS
2000 AA-AAA 8 8 27 26 1 0 0 154 132 56 119 240
2001 MIL 11 10 25 25 1 1 0 151 166 48 94 476
2002 MIL 11 16 34 34 1 0 0 217 237 70 170 415
RUSCH
2000 NYM 11 11 31 30 2 0 0 191 196 44 157 401
2001 NYM 8 12 33 33 1 0 0 179 216 43 156 463
2002 MIL 10 16 34 34 4 1 0 211 227 76 140 470
MLICKI
2000 DET 6 11 24 21 0 0 0 119 143 44 57 558
2001 DET-HOU 11 11 34 29 0 0 0 168 203 74 97 617
2002 HOU 4 10 22 16 0 0 0 86 101 34 57 534
RITCHIE
2000 PIT 9 8 31 31 1 1 0 187 208 51 124 481
2001 PIT 11 15 33 33 4 2 0 207 211 52 124 447
2002 CHW 5 15 26 23 0 0 0 134 176 52 77 606
      The Brewers had the worst pitching staff in the league last year, a key reason why they lost 106 games. The big guns, Sheets and Rusch, were both disappointing, and the rest of the staff... quick, check your thesaurus and look up "puke".
      The prospects for 2003 aren't good, but there's only one way to go and that's up. Sheets and Rusch are not the worst pitchers in the world to build a pitching staff around; I think both are good bets to have a strong comeback season. New GM Doug Melvin has the daunting task of rebuilding the rest of the staff, and started by signing Todd Ritchie and Dave Mlicki. Ritchie had a horrible, horrible season for the White Sox, but he has been a good pitcher in the past, and there is an indisputable logic in taking a chance on a good pitcher when he's down on his luck. He just might surprise you.
      Mlicki may or may not be in the starting rotation; he's a guy who survives because there just aren't enough pitchers to go around. The Brewers have some other young pitchers who may get a shot; one of them, Nick Neugebauer, was ticketed for the rotation but is having his shoulder operated on instead. Chances are, Mlicki will get a few starts.