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CHICAGO CUBS - Sammy Sosa 34 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | CHC | 156 | 604 | 193 | 38 | 1 | 50 | 106 | 138 | 91 | 168 | 320 | 406 | 634 | 7 | 4 | |
2001 | CHC | 160 | 577 | 189 | 34 | 5 | 64 | 146 | 160 | 116 | 153 | 328 | 437 | 737 | 0 | 2 | |
2002 | CHC | 150 | 556 | 160 | 19 | 2 | 49 | 122 | 108 | 103 | 144 | 288 | 399 | 594 | 2 | 0 | |
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He was having another Super Sammy Season, hitting 28 home runs before the break, but was slowed down the second half of the season by back problems. He was still one of the best players in the league; if he avoids the injury bug then he will probably hit at least 45 home runs again.
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MONTREAL - Vlad Guerrero 27 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | MON | 154 | 571 | 197 | 28 | 11 | 44 | 101 | 123 | 58 | 74 | 345 | 410 | 664 | 9 | 10 | |
2001 | MON | 159 | 599 | 184 | 45 | 4 | 34 | 107 | 108 | 60 | 88 | 307 | 377 | 566 | 37 | 16 | |
2002 | MON | 161 | 614 | 206 | 37 | 2 | 39 | 106 | 111 | 84 | 70 | 336 | 417 | 593 | 40 | 20 | |
A tale of two players:
GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AV OB SL SB CS
161 614 206 37 2 39 106 111 84 70 336 417 593 40 20
162 609 208 51 2 39 134 136 76 62 342 421 624 18 9
You probably recognize the first line of stats as belonging to Vladdy from last year. The second line belongs to his manager, Frank Robinson, from 1962, when Robbie was the same age.
The bad news is that Robinson had an injury-plagued off-year at age 27, batting just .259. The good news is that most players peak at that age; Guerrero is an MVP waiting to happen, but who knows where he will be playing at the end of the year?
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HOUSTON - Lance Berkman 27 S/L |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | HOU | 114 | 353 | 105 | 28 | 1 | 21 | 76 | 67 | 56 | 73 | 297 | 388 | 561 | 6 | 2 | |
2001 | HOU | 156 | 577 | 191 | 55 | 5 | 34 | 110 | 126 | 92 | 121 | 331 | 430 | 620 | 7 | 9 | |
2002 | HOU | 158 | 578 | 169 | 35 | 2 | 42 | 106 | 128 | 107 | 118 | 292 | 405 | 578 | 8 | 4 | |
Berkman is a switch-hitter, but is actually a much better left-handed hitter than he is right-handed (not surprising, since he's a natural lefty). Which raises the question: is there any point in him continuing to switch hit? He hit two homers against southpaws last season; I'm sure that, with a little practice, a hitter of his talents could learn to hit left-handed pitching from the left side.
Apart from that little quibble, Berkman is a really, really, really, really good player. He did a good job in centre last year, but it appears that the Astros are going to move him back to right and put Biggio in centre. It's probably a good move; I have to admit that, if I were the Astros, I would be uneasy about having my best player twist an ankle on that goofy hill they have out there in Minute Maid Park.
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PHILADELPHIA - Bobby Abreu 29 L/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | PHI | 154 | 576 | 182 | 42 | 10 | 25 | 103 | 79 | 100 | 116 | 316 | 416 | 554 | 28 | 8 | |
2001 | PHI | 162 | 588 | 170 | 48 | 4 | 31 | 118 | 110 | 106 | 137 | 289 | 393 | 543 | 36 | 14 | |
2002 | PHI | 157 | 572 | 176 | 50 | 6 | 20 | 102 | 85 | 104 | 117 | 308 | 413 | 521 | 31 | 12 | |
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One of the most underappreciated players in baseball, Abreu had a brilliant year, his fourth straight of stunning quality. A great hitter in his prime; he would be the best leadoff hitter in baseball if he wanted to do it. With Burrell and Thome taking care of the 3-4 spots in the lineup, Abreu would best serve the team at the top of the batting order.
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LOS ANGELES - Shawn Green 30 L/L |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | LA | 162 | 610 | 164 | 44 | 4 | 24 | 98 | 99 | 90 | 121 | 269 | 367 | 472 | 24 | 5 | |
2001 | LA | 161 | 619 | 184 | 31 | 4 | 49 | 121 | 125 | 72 | 107 | 297 | 372 | 598 | 20 | 4 | |
2002 | LA | 158 | 582 | 166 | 31 | 1 | 42 | 110 | 114 | 93 | 112 | 285 | 385 | 558 | 8 | 5 | |
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He had a crazy season, got off to a miserable start in April, then went bananas in May and June, struggled in July but finished the year strong. Green was the only potent bat in the Dodgers' lineup all season... and the bad news for L.A. fans is that he might be the only dangerous stick they have this year as well.
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ATLANTA - Gary Sheffield 34 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | LA | 141 | 501 | 163 | 24 | 3 | 43 | 105 | 109 | 101 | 71 | 325 | 438 | 643 | 4 | 6 | |
2001 | LA | 143 | 515 | 160 | 28 | 2 | 36 | 98 | 100 | 94 | 67 | 311 | 417 | 583 | 10 | 4 | |
2002 | ATL | 135 | 492 | 151 | 26 | 0 | 25 | 82 | 84 | 72 | 53 | 307 | 404 | 512 | 12 | 2 | |
Sheffield has changed the shape of his career over the past few years, and is starting to emerge as a viable Hall-Of-Fame candidate. Early in his career his was injury-prone and unpredictable, having a great MVP season one year and struggling the next. But over the past five years, he has turned into a steady, consistent player, usually missing three weeks with injury every year but putting up some good numbers. He may not ever win an MVP Award but at least you can count on him.
He was slowed down last year by various injuries to his wrist, hamstring and thumb, but still had a good year. If he can duplicate what he did last year for another four years (possible; he might even do better), he will have over 2400 hits and 440 homers. Throw in his excellent batting and on-base percentages, 200 stolen bases, many more walks then strikeouts, a World Series ring, and his credentials would be impeccable.
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COLORADO - Larry Walker 37 L/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | COL | 87 | 314 | 97 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 64 | 51 | 46 | 40 | 309 | 409 | 506 | 5 | 5 | |
2001 | COL | 142 | 497 | 174 | 35 | 3 | 38 | 107 | 123 | 82 | 103 | 350 | 449 | 662 | 14 | 5 | |
2002 | COL | 136 | 477 | 161 | 40 | 4 | 26 | 95 | 104 | 65 | 73 | 338 | 421 | 602 | 6 | 5 | |
2002 | HOME | 70 | 243 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 59 | 66 | 38 | 29 | 362 | 453 | 671 | 3 | 2 | |
2002 | ROAD | 66 | 234 | 73 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 38 | 27 | 44 | 312 | 387 | 530 | 3 | 3 | |
Walker was almost traded to Arizona during the winter, but neither him nor Matt Williams wanted to switch cities. Walker eats up pitchers at Coors Field but last year again proved that he is a good hitter in any park. After two fairly healthy seasons, it is probably a long shot that he will play 100 games this year, especially at his age.
The funny thing about the aborted trade is that the Rockies still don't seem to have any kind of plan about what to do when Walker leaves.
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CINCINNATI - Austin Kearns 23 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | A | 136 | 484 | 148 | 37 | 2 | 27 | 110 | 104 | 90 | 93 | 306 | 415 | 558 | 18 | 5 | |
2001 | AA | 59 | 205 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 36 | 26 | 43 | 268 | 364 | 429 | 7 | 5 | |
2002 | CIN | 107 | 372 | 117 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 66 | 56 | 54 | 81 | 315 | 407 | 500 | 6 | 3 | |
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Kearns was a top prospect in 2000, was a disappointment in 2001 but last year won a job with the Reds and had a great year. Out of all of last year's rookies, I would probably want Josh Phelps the most, with Kearns a close second (I would take Mark Prior if you could guarantee me that his elbow won't disintegrate). Kearns is only 23 years old, and appears to do everything well.
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ST LOUIS - JD Drew 27 L/R and Eri Marrero 29 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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DREW | |
2000 | STL | 135 | 407 | 120 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 73 | 57 | 67 | 99 | 295 | 401 | 479 | 17 | 9 | |
2001 | STL | 109 | 375 | 121 | 18 | 5 | 27 | 80 | 73 | 57 | 75 | 323 | 414 | 613 | 13 | 3 | |
2002 | STL | 135 | 424 | 107 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 61 | 56 | 57 | 104 | 252 | 349 | 429 | 8 | 2 | |
MARRERO | |
2000 | STL | 53 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 225 | 302 | 422 | 5 | 0 | |
2001 | STL | 86 | 203 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 23 | 15 | 36 | 266 | 312 | 438 | 6 | 3 | |
2002 | STL | 131 | 397 | 104 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 63 | 66 | 40 | 72 | 262 | 327 | 451 | 14 | 2 | |
With expectations high, Drew did not have the season that either him or the Cardinals were hoping for. He was troubled by tendinitis in his knee, and had surgery after the season. He will not be ready for opening day... Drew is still a talented hitter, and is young enough to have some good seasons. But he's also starting to look like the next Kal Daniels.
Marrero is a former catcher who played in the outfield last season and hit a bunch of home runs. He should get some more at bats until Drew returns.
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SAN FRANCISCO - Jose Cruz 29 S/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | TOR | 162 | 603 | 146 | 32 | 5 | 31 | 91 | 76 | 71 | 129 | 242 | 323 | 466 | 15 | 5 | |
2001 | TOR | 146 | 577 | 158 | 38 | 4 | 34 | 92 | 88 | 45 | 138 | 274 | 326 | 530 | 32 | 5 | |
2002 | TOR | 124 | 466 | 114 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 64 | 70 | 51 | 106 | 245 | 317 | 438 | 7 | 1 | |
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After having his best season in 2001, Cruz last year had injury problems and never got on track. After seven years in Toronto, he has moved to San Francisco where he will replace Reggie Sanders in right field. He's a .250 who has some power and speed, basically the same player at age 29 that Sanders is at age 35. Cruz is also a fine defensive player and might be a better option in centre field than the players the Giants have now.
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ARIZONA - Dave Dellucci 29 L/L and Danny Bautista 31 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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DELLUCCI | |
2000 | ARI | 34 | 50 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 300 | 352 | 360 | 0 | 2 | |
2001 | ARI | 115 | 217 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 40 | 22 | 52 | 276 | 349 | 479 | 2 | 1 | |
2002 | ARI | 97 | 229 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 29 | 28 | 55 | 245 | 326 | 402 | 2 | 4 | |
BAUTISTA | |
2000 | FLO-ARI | 131 | 351 | 100 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 54 | 59 | 25 | 50 | 285 | 333 | 476 | 6 | 2 | |
2001 | ARI | 100 | 222 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 14 | 31 | 302 | 346 | 437 | 3 | 2 | |
2002 | ARI | 40 | 154 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 11 | 21 | 325 | 367 | 500 | 4 | 2 | |
Last year's platoon between Bautista and Dellucci never materialized as expected. Early in the year, Bautista was making the most of his 10th major league season, batting .325 with power the first six weeks of the season. He was getting the bulk of the playing time, but a shoulder injury ended his season.
Dellucci couldn't find many at bats early in the season. But even after Bautista was injured, Dellucci was outplayed by the surprising Quinton McCracken. For both Bautista and Dellucci, it was pretty much a lost season; for McCracken, it was a career revival.
I don't know who is going to play where in 2003. My guess is that Bautista will get another opportunity to prove himself as an everyday player. He's better than I thought he would be, but this is still a guy who's never batted even 300 times in a season. He's best suited to playing on a part-time basis. Dellucci is a quality player, and should be better this season.
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FLORIDA - Juan Encarnacion 27 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | DET | 141 | 547 | 158 | 25 | 6 | 14 | 75 | 72 | 29 | 90 | 289 | 330 | 433 | 16 | 4 | |
2001 | DET | 120 | 417 | 101 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 52 | 52 | 25 | 93 | 242 | 292 | 408 | 9 | 5 | |
2002 | CIN-FLO | 152 | 584 | 158 | 22 | 5 | 24 | 77 | 85 | 46 | 113 | 271 | 324 | 449 | 21 | 9 | |
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Encarnacion did a nice little job for the Reds, filling in in centre and hitting a few homers when Griffey was hurt. The development of Kearns squeezed his playing time, and he was dealt to the Marlins. The good news is that Encarnacion has become more selective at the plate, and at age 27 should be primed to have a career year. The bad news is that he's probably not going to hit many home runs at Pro Player Stadium, and his other contributions remain limited. He is better suited as a fourth outfielder than as a regular.
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SAN DIEGO - Bubba Trammell 31 R/R and Brian Buchanan 30 R/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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TRAMMELL | |
2000 | TAM-NYM | 102 | 245 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 45 | 29 | 49 | 265 | 345 | 457 | 4 | 0 | |
2001 | SD | 142 | 490 | 128 | 20 | 3 | 25 | 66 | 92 | 48 | 78 | 261 | 330 | 467 | 2 | 2 | |
2002 | SD | 133 | 403 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 54 | 56 | 53 | 71 | 243 | 333 | 414 | 1 | 3 | |
BUCHANAN | |
2000 | AAA | 95 | 364 | 108 | 20 | 1 | 27 | 82 | 103 | 41 | 75 | 297 | 363 | 580 | 5 | 1 | |
2000 | MIN | 30 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 232 | 301 | 305 | 0 | 2 | |
2001 | MIN | 69 | 197 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 32 | 19 | 58 | 274 | 342 | 487 | 1 | 1 | |
2002 | MIN-SD | 92 | 227 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 15 | 59 | 269 | 322 | 467 | 2 | 2 | |
Buchanan and Trammell are currently the Padres' best options for right field. Both are similar players, right-handed hitters who have a little power, can hit for a decent average. Both are journeyman who are just entering their 30's. Both got off to slow starts, but played much better the second half of the season.
Buchanan desperately needs a good season to extend his career. Trammell was a big disappointment, after having a good year in 2001 and signing a fat contract. Trammell is the better hitter, and because of his contract will likely get a better chance to play; Buchanan might be hungrier and make a better effort to win a job.
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PITTSBURGH - Craig Wilson 26 R/R and Rob Mackowiak 27 L/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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WILSON | |
2000 | AAA | 124 | 396 | 112 | 24 | 2 | 33 | 83 | 86 | 44 | 121 | 283 | 383 | 604 | 1 | 2 | |
2001 | PIT | 88 | 158 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 32 | 15 | 53 | 310 | 390 | 589 | 3 | 1 | |
2002 | PIT | 131 | 368 | 97 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 57 | 32 | 116 | 264 | 355 | 443 | 2 | 3 | |
MACKOWIAK | |
2000 | AA | 134 | 526 | 156 | 33 | 4 | 13 | 82 | 87 | 22 | 96 | 297 | 332 | 449 | 18 | 5 | |
2001 | AAA | 32 | 118 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 39 | 263 | 302 | 407 | 1 | 1 | |
2001 | PIT | 83 | 214 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 15 | 52 | 266 | 319 | 411 | 4 | 3 | |
2002 | PIT | 136 | 385 | 94 | 22 | 0 | 16 | 57 | 48 | 42 | 120 | 244 | 328 | 426 | 9 | 3 | |
There is more to baseball than just statistics, but sometimes they are useful. For example: the Pirates, in 2002, scored 641 runs; only Milwaukee scored fewer. They were badly outscored all year, and lost 89 games. Hmmm.
Craig Wilson, in his rookie season in 2001, hit .310 in 158 at bats. With power. Last year, he posted the second-highest OPS on the team, next to Brian Giles — and yet he batted only 368 times, fewer than, say Kevin Young or Rob Mackowiak. Another right fielder, Armando Rios, hit one home run in 208 at bats.
So, if I'm Lloyd McClendon, and I have a 25-year-old who is my second-best hitter, I'm thinking that I want him in the lineup everyday. Didn't happen. As for 2003, well, I'm reading that Wilson will platoon in right and do some more catching and maybe play some first base, which to me doesn't seem like a firm commitment to develop his career.
I'm also reading that Matt Stairs may play in right, but I don't know where that leaves Mackowiak. I suggest they move Stairs to second base, Pokey Reese to left field, Jason Kendall to third base and Aramis Ramirez to catcher. If you're going to lose 90 games, you may as well make it interesting.
ADDENDUM: Since I wrote the above comment, the Pirates have acquired Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders to play the outfield. If the Pirates don't want Craig Wilson, can't they give him to Tampa Bay or Kansas City or some other team that desperately needs him?
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NEW YORK METS - Jeromy Burnitz 34 L/R |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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2000 | MIL | 161 | 564 | 131 | 29 | 2 | 31 | 91 | 98 | 99 | 121 | 232 | 356 | 456 | 6 | 4 | |
2001 | MIL | 154 | 562 | 141 | 32 | 4 | 34 | 104 | 100 | 80 | 150 | 251 | 347 | 504 | 0 | 4 | |
2002 | NYM | 154 | 479 | 103 | 15 | 0 | 19 | 65 | 54 | 58 | 135 | 215 | 311 | 365 | 10 | 7 | |
He had a terrible season. A big part of the problem, of course, was age and declining bat speed. He was also probably freaked out by the bad visibility at Shea, which gives problems to patient hitters like Burnitz. He was good when swinging early in the count but was just awful when he took more than two pitches.
My advice for 2003: Swing early, swing often, and don't play against left-handers.
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MILWAUKEE - Jeffrey Hammonds 32 R/R and John Vander Wal 37 L/L |
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YEAR | TM | GM | AB | HT | DB | TP | HR | RUN | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBA | SLU | SB | CS |
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HAMMONDS | |
2000 | COL | 122 | 454 | 152 | 24 | 2 | 20 | 94 | 106 | 44 | 83 | 335 | 395 | 529 | 14 | 7 | |
2001 | MIL | 49 | 174 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 21 | 14 | 42 | 247 | 314 | 425 | 5 | 3 | |
2002 | MIL | 128 | 448 | 115 | 26 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 52 | 86 | 257 | 332 | 397 | 4 | 5 | |
VANDER WAL | |
2000 | PIT | 134 | 384 | 115 | 29 | 0 | 24 | 74 | 94 | 72 | 92 | 299 | 410 | 563 | 11 | 2 | |
2001 | PIT-SF | 146 | 452 | 122 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 58 | 70 | 68 | 122 | 270 | 364 | 442 | 8 | 6 | |
2002 | NYY | 84 | 219 | 57 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 23 | 58 | 260 | 327 | 429 | 1 | 1 | |
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Out goes Matt Stairs, in comes John Vander Wal. Out goes Alex Ochoa, moving over to right goes Jeff Hammonds. Players come and go, but the Brewers stay the same...
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