2004 Season Preview (National League)

Every year, my previews for the upcoming season get smaller; the reality is that there are many other sites who do this kind of stuff, and they provide much more information than I do. I have neither the time nor the energy to offer a huge amount of content. But the site would seem naked without something, and I enjoy the challenge of trying not to repeat myself every year (though I don't know how successful I am).
      I'm also making my preseason award predictions, and rankings for each position. Thanks!

Predictions:
National League Preview:
American League Preview:
2004 Player Rankings:
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Predictions:

American League MVP: Carlos Beltran
American League Cy Young: Tim Hudson
AL Playoffs: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Athletics (WC)
American League Pennant: Oakland Athletics
Dark Horses: Mark Teixeira, Kyle Lohse, Texas Rangers

National League MVP: Todd Helton
National League Cy Young: Mark Prior
NL Playoffs: Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Braves (WC)
National League Pennant: Philadelphia Phillies
Dark Horses: Austin Kearns, Ben Sheets, Cincinnati Reds

NATIONAL LEAGUE PREVIEW
EAST

Philadelphia Phillies

I keep reading in the media that Larry Bowa's job will be in jeopardy if the Phillies get off to a rough start. My question is, why would you even start the season with someone like that? If you think you can win the division, and the Phillies do, then there really shouldn't be any question about whether the manager will last the season or not.
      Anyways, the Phillies are in a curious position; they are in a division with the defending World Champions, and with a team that has dominated the regular season for the past decade, and yet are still considered favourites to win their division. Unlike the Marlins and Braves, they clearly got better during the winter. Last season they were killed by dead weights in the lineup and horrible closers. Billy Wagner should fix the latter problem, and a return to form from Pat Burrell should help the former.

CA - Mike Lieberthal - He had one of the best seasons in what has been a very good career, and was one of the few Phillies who really did their job at the plate. It is now clear that the 31 home runs Lieberthal hit in 1999 were a fluke; he hasn't hit more than 20 in any other season. But he hits for average and hits 15 homers a year with some doubles and draws a few walks; one of the better catchers in baseball.

1B - Jim Thome - He had a very good season, struggling a bit at first, then hitting 20 home runs in the final two months of the season to help management breathe a little easier.
      But there are still six years left on that monster contract. He will turn 34 years old this season; his batting average dropped 40 points; he doesn't look like he is built to age well; the Phillies choked in the final month of last season, and have historically been a team of turkeys.

2B - Placido Polanco - He hasn't hit .300 in two years, but his power, walks and stolen bases are all up and that more than compensates. Polanco is a good hitter for a middle infielder, and a great defensive player, though he doesn't get much credit for defense because he keeps changing positions. Needs to figure out a way to swap contracts with David Bell.

3B - David Bell - He had a horrible season at the plate; the worst free agent signing of 2003. The Phillies still owe him lots of money.

SS - Jimmy Rollins - He's durable and consistent, and that's good. But Rollins has made no improvements at the plate since his rookie year, and his base stealing has declined badly.

LF - Pat Burrell - He started off badly and, well, never really got any better. Burrell's poor season was probably the most surprising and disappointing of any of last year's bad campaigns.
      On the good side, his season is a neat match for Mark McGwire, 1991:

                GM   AB   HT  DB TP  HR  RUN RBI   BB  SO  AVG  OBA  SLG 
Burrell Age 26 146  522  109  31  4  21   57  64   72 142  209  309  404
McGwire Age 27 154  483   97  22  0  22   62  75   93 116  201  330  383 

      A partial comeback is in the cards. He won't hit 70 home runs, but he should hit half that number.

CF - Marlon Byrd - Byrd was a highly touted rookie before last season, and had an impressive year. He hit .167 in April and .204 in May, but was fantazmo the rest of the season.

RF - Bobby Abreu - He had his 6th straight All-Star season but has yet to play in an All-Star Game. The funny thing about underrated players is that they can spend years playing in anonymity, then all of a sudden everybody jumps on the bandwagon and starts talking about them. If the Phillies win this year, and they should, expect to see more words written about Abreu this year than in his entire career.

SP - Kevin Millwood - He's had one great year and one real good one and a bunch of decent ones. He's the new Rick Sutcliffe, will have a few more decent seasons.

SP - Randy Wolf - He always seems to be on the verge of stardom, but it hasn't happened. Wolf set a career high with 16 wins, but his season was marred by a horrible August (8.40 ERA). He has a reputation as a finesse pitcher, but gets a lot of strikeouts. A good bet for 15-20 wins.

SP - Vincent Padilla - Has had two solid seasons in a row. Supposedly he throws very hard, but his strikeout rates are ordinary. Good for another dozen wins, but he won't have a long career.

SP - Eric Milton - He had knee surgery in the spring, came back to make three starts in September. He has long been promoted as a possible star, but his prime years are behind him and they were underwhelming. The next phase of his career will be a transition into the bullpen as a left-handed reliever (see Rheal Cormier).

SP - Brett Myers - He had a solid rookie season at age 22, staying healthy and winning 14 games. He has terrific stuff, and though he still needs to mature and show that he can stay healthy, there really isn't much not to like about him.

RP - Billy Wagner - According to The Bill James 2004 Handbook, there were 205 pitches thrown around the majors in 2003 that clocked at least 100 mph. Wagner threw 159 of them, or 77.5%; no other pitcher had more than 12. I knew Wagner threw hard, but I didn't know he threw that hard; maybe they juice up the radar gun in Houston when he takes the mound. Anyways, he's a great pitcher, and the Phillies need him.

Atlanta Braves

      They have been the class of the league since before either Friends or Frasier went on the air. Last year, many people (myself included) expected the Braves' streak of division titles to come to an end. Instead, they won again, easily. And lost in the playoffs. And so now, the cycle repeats itself; this will be the year that their streak finally ends. After all, they lost Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez, and replaced them with J.D. Drew and Eddie Perez:

                   AVG HR RBI
Sheffield + Lopez .329 82 241 
Drew + Perez      .279 26 87 

      They also lost Greg Maddux, and replaced him with John Thomson. Let's face it, we all know what we think will happen; the only way to go out on a limb with the Braves is to say that they will win the World Series or miss the playoffs. I am not prepared to predict either scenario, so instead, I predict that they will take the wild card. Is that safe enough?

CA - Eddie Perez/Johnny Estrada - Estrada spent almost the entire year at Richmond, batting .328 while Lopez had his amazing year for the Braves. He's now 28 years old, and the Braves need him. 28 years old, figures to be part of an OK combination with Perez and maybe Marrero.

1B - Eli Marrero - Marrero could play five or six positions this year, but the Braves need help right now at first so I'm putting him here. He's 30 years old and has had only one good year with the bat; should be able to replace Rob Fick, for whatever that's worth.

2B - Marcus Giles - He was awesome last year, recovering from a disappointing 2002 season and establishing himself among the best players in the game. He's a power-hitting second baseman who is good with the glove and has good plate discipline. His elder brother, Brian, had his first great year at age 28; Marcus beat him by 3 years. What more do you want?
      Giles was so good, in so many different areas, that it's almost impossible to think that he won't continue to excel. The kind of skills he has could win an MVP Award under the right circumstances.

3B - Julio Franco?

SS - Rafael Furcal - Wow. After two indifferent seasons, and having three years attached to his age, Furcal's stock had dropped considerably. But he had a terrific season and, at age 26, once again has a bright future.
      Could anyone have predicted that Furcal would cut his strikeout rate by almost 50%, while doubling his home runs? I bet that hasn't happened very often.

LF - Chipper Jones - Averaged 40 homers a year from 1999-2001 while playing third base, but has seen his power drop since the move to the outfield. Common sense says that this is just a coincidence. But Tony Perez hit 37 home runs in 1969, 40 in 1970, then never hit more than 30 again after moving to first base.
      Chipper had a whopping five extra-base hits from the right side of the plate last season (three doubles, two homers). He needs to decide if switch-hitting is still working for him.

CF - Andruw Jones - He is almost the exact same player at age 26 as he was at age 21, except that he has lost some speed. His lack of growth has been a major disappointment, but... he's durable, hits 35 home runs every year, and is among the best defensive outfielders in the game. Who knows, he could be ten years away from his prime.

RF - J.D. Drew - Once a great prospect who had the talent to win a batting title or hit 45 home runs, but the stars haven't aligned correctly. His career had stalled with the Cardinals, but he'll get a chance to be a leader in Atlanta.
      Drew has never played more than 135 games in a season. He missed 60 games last season recovering from knee surgery. His numbers last year closely match his career numbers (.282 average, .377 on-base average, .498 slugging percentage), suggesting that that is his real level of ability. It's good, but the Braves need more.

SP - Russ Ortiz - He basically had the same season that he had in 2002 and 2001 and 1999, but got some run support and won 21 games. He finished 4th in the Cy Young vote, which was too high but was progress; in past years he might have won.

SP - Mike Hampton - Has come full circle; his season was almost identical to his breakthrough year with the Astros in 1997. He is only 31, and he pitched very well the second half of the season. Will have another 12-15 win season.

SP - John Thomson - Not many were impressed when the Braves signed him and let Maddux go. But Thomson is a guy who should thrive under Cox and Mazzone. He has a good strikeout/walk ratio, and has survived pitching for awful teams in great hitter's parks. If he can win 13 games with Texas, he can win at least 15 with Atlanta.

SP - Horacio Ramirez - Young Braves pitcher who had a mediocre rookie season. We'll have to wait to see if he learns a strikeout pitch.

SP - Paul Byrd - Had his wings clipped. Is hoping to take flight in 2004, but his goose may be cooked. Now we can stop making byrd jokes.

RP - John Smoltz - The Braves are hoping he will be healthy in 2004. As in, healthy enough to throw 250 innings and win 24 games like he did in 1996.

Florida Marlins

The winter is over, and Marlins' fans can exhale. The team wasn't dismantled. They actually had a decent offseason, and will be in contention again. Trading Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi was risky but I think it was a good risk. I also thought that the deal they offered Pudge Rodriguez ($24 million over three years) was very reasonable, given that he is a 32-year-old catcher; the Marlins shouldn't be criticized because they didn't overpay for him.
      A repeat of a championship is unlikely, if only because last year's championship was so unlikely. I think that they will contend in 2004, but 2005 is the season that they should be building for. Give Choi and Miguel Cabrera a full year to develop, give A.J. Burnett a year to get his strength back. See if Beckett can finally throw 200 innings in a season.

CA - Mike Redmond/Ramon Castro - After a year of Pudge Rodriguez, the Marlins are apparently going back to the combo they had from 1999-2002. They're not Pudge but they're OK.

1B - Hee Seop Choi - Choi is a young slugger who draws a lot of walks and has big power. Even with a .218 average, he put some runs on the board. Now that he's with a team that actually wants him, he has a chance to blossom. Too bad he's moving to a park where fly balls go to die.

2B - Luis Castillo - He wasn't an effective base stealer, slowed down by offseason surgery to his hip. Otherwise, he had one of his best seasons. Castillo has been a part of two championships in Florida, and is only 28; an integral part of the Marlins' lineup.

3B - Mike Lowell - He was the Marlins' MVP (actually, Juan Pierre was their MVP, but you get my meaning). He put up career-best numbers despite a broken hand. He has good power, and is a good defensive player.
      Lowell was a very consistent player before 2003. Chances are, it was a career year, and he will return to his previous form.

SS - Alex Gonzalez - Gonzalez had a curious season. After a fine year in 1999 at age 22, his career had taken a disastrous turn for the worse, including shoulder surgery in 2002. Entering the season, his future was in doubt.
      In April, he exploded with the bat, hitting .352 with a .670 slugging percentage, 22 RBI. He hit .310 in May, .268 in June. At the break, he was batting .288 with a .509 slugging percentage.
      Then came a .220 average in July, a .149 average (no homers) in August, then a .238 average in September. He hit just .208 in the second half; it was a terribly disappointing finish to what had started out as a promising season.
      But the Marlins won the World Series, and he had some big hits and scored some big runs; he also played solid defense in the field.

LF - Jeff Conine - Another player who has two World Series rings, thanks to the Marlins. Conine, at age 37, had 20 homers and 90 RBI for the first time in seven years, while setting a career high in doubles. The past two seasons, he has stolen 13 bases, and has not been caught.

CF - Juan Pierre - What a great trade it was that sent Pierre to Florida, and Preston Wilson to the Rockies. Pierre was wasted in homer-happy Coors Field, while Wilson's power was stifled by Joe Robbie Stadium. Both players flourished in their new environments.

RF - Miguel Cabrera - At age 20, he hit .365 in half a season for AA Carolina. He spent the second half of the season with Florida, playing well and hitting four home runs in the postseason.
      His future potential, obviously, is enormous. Some people are already talking about him as if he's the next Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols; it's possible that he may be that good, but let's take a deep breath, and wait and see whether he's better than Adrian Beltre.

SP - Josh Beckett - He sprained his elbow in early May and missed eight weeks, then came back and pitched brilliantly the second half of the season and in the playoffs. Has been highly touted for years, and at age 24 appears ready to become a dominant pitcher. Beckett has a history with blisters, but if you ask Nolan Ryan or Al Leiter, they would tell you that that doesn't have to be a bad long-term thing.

SP - Dontrelle Willis - I have mixed feelings about Willis. He pitched under a lot of pressure at age 21, and his life was a bit of a circus off the field as well. His performance declined badly in the second half, so much so that he didn't start in the World Series. He's fun, but flamboyant personalities don't usually last a long time in this game (where is Carlos Perez these days?)
      But if I didn't know all these things, I would like him a lot. There is nothing in his record to suggest that he won't be a solid pitcher.

SP - Brad Penny - A weird pitcher, he throws a fastball 98mph and has a hard curve but doesn't strike many batters out. Only 26 years old, should be good for another dozen wins but probably won't be in the league many years.

SP - Carl Pavano - He had his best season, which may not be saying much but the Marlins needed those 200 innings. An OK pitcher who dramatically improved his control; just keep the ball down and keep throwing strikes.

SP - A.J. Burnett - The Marlins' ace, he made four starts then had surgery on his rotator cuff, missing the rest of the season. And then they won the World Series. The world is a strange place.
      Actually, Burnett's injury led directly to the changes that made the championship possible. Manager Jeff Torborg was accused by everybody of overworking his ace (which he did) and was fired. Then, Burnett's roster spot was taken over by Rookie Of The Year Dontrelle Willis.
      Having said that, the Marlins still really, really need him. He will come back strong but not right away.

RP - Armando Benitez - Saved 21 games in half a season with the Mets, then was traded to the Yankees. As the setup man for Rivera, he threw nine innings, then was dealt to the Mariners, who were in free-fall and kept him in middle relief. Though he pitched well, it was a disappointing, frustrating season.
      Oh, and he also got selected the All-Star team for the first time. Funny how these things work out. Benitez is still young, still powerful, will be the closer for the World Champions and will have a good year.

New York Mets

The Mets won 97 games in 1999; since then their winning percentage has dropped t four straight seasons, and last year they lost 95 games. They've rid themselves of some disappointing veterans (Vaughn, Alomar, Burnitz, Benitez), and at the very least should reverse the current trend.
      The starting lineup is moderately interesting. They had two good rookies last year (Phillips, Reyes) and figure to have another this year (Matsui). They're fairly young; only one regular is over 35, and he's not a bad player (Piazza).
      The starting rotation is depressing. Glavine appears to be done. Leiter is good but is 38 years old. Trachsel is Trachsel. Jae Weong Seo might be OK but Aaron Heilman didn't look too hot.
      The bullpen is depressing. John Franco is 85 years old and is still their best reliever. The good news is that Braden Looper was the closer for the World Series champions; the bad news is that Jack McKeon didn't trust him in clutch situations.
      The bench is depressing. Joe McEwing, Todd Zeile, Timo Perez, Shane Spencer and Karim Garcia; need we say more? Actually, Garcia and Spencer may platoon in right, which is also depressing.

CA - Mike Piazza - His defense behind the plate isn't very good, and Phillips probably won't hit enough at first base. Logically, Piazza would move to first while Phillips would catch, but... well, it's complicated. Just ask the folks at ESPN.com, who on January 30 reported that:

      "Piazza is five home runs away from being the all-time leader as a catcher (not that he needs that record; he's already the best hitting catcher ever, and a Hall of Famer). Phillips is better defensively, as is Vance Wilson, but moving to first base will be difficult for Piazza, who isn't a very good athlete. After watching him play first base on an extended basis in spring training, they might decide they're better off with him behind the plate."

      Let's count the contradictions... Piazza is the best hitting catcher ever and a Hall of Famer, but he's not a good athlete. And because he's not a good athlete, he's better off behind the plate than at first. Did anyone ever suggest that Cecil Fielder or John Kruk should be a catcher?

1B - Jason Phillips - See Mike Piazza. A good-hitting catcher who probably over-achieved last year, giving the impression that he might be an OK first baseman.

2B - Jose Reyes - Had a fine rookie season, at age 20, and ranks among the best young players in baseball. The Mets, of course, want to do everything they can to screw him up; step one is moving him to a new position.

3B - Ty Wigginton - As a Toronto fan, when I look at Wigginton's rookie season I immediately think "Ed Sprague". He's a below average player, doesn't hit for much average or power, doesn't get on base and isn't a good defensive player. And he doesn't figure to get much better.
      I would have written the exact same thing about Sprague in 1994, and two years later he went out and had a 36-homer season. It was a fluke and I don't expect the same from Wigginton but stranger things have happened.

SS - Kazuo Matsui - Japanese star. Was a great base stealer when he was young, has lost much of his speed but now hits 30 homers a year. Has the Japanese media accused him of taking steroids?

LF - Cliff Floyd - Last year it was an injury to his right achilles tendon that slowed him down and put him out of the lineup. Floyd is an outstanding hitter, and is still fairly young, but he can't stay healthy; it's time he did a Don Baylor and became a regular DH.

CF - Mike Cameron - He is escaping from Seattle. The Mariners are a good organization, but Safeco Field was the worst park in the world for Cameron to play in. Shea Stadium's not a good hitter's park, but it's hard to imagine that Cameron could hit worse anywhere than he did at SafeCo.
      The Mets have a long history of collecting veteran players who crap out as soon as they come to New York. Cameron is a good hitter and a wonderful defensive player, but he also has a lot of Dwayne Murphy in him, not to mention Tommie Agee and Larry Hisle, and none of those guys aged well.

RF - Karim Garcia/Raul Gonzalez - It's been a while since the Mets had any of their players arrested; maybe Garcia will fill the void this season.

SP - Tom Glavine - His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (4.03 K's per game) despite moving to a park where hitters tend to strike out. The bad stuff (hits, homers, runs) were way up. Part of the blame has been put on the Questec system, but at age 38, it sure looks as if Glavine is close to being done. May need to take career survival tips from John Franco.

SP - Steve Trachsel - Set a career high with 16 wins. As usual, Trachsel's season was a mixture of frequent mediocrity mixed with occasional brilliance. Threw two one-hit shutouts (June 15, August 18), winning 8-0 both games.

SP - Jae Weong Seo - A control pitcher who had a decent rookie season. No great potential, could be the next Rick Reed.

RP - Braden Looper - A durable, good-not-great pitcher; he saved 28 games for the World Champs but isn't an ideal closer, is better suited for the setup role. He gives up about a hit per inning, has OK control but doesn't get a lot of strikeouts.

Montreal Expos

The sad lesson from last season is that even having Jeffrey Loria as an owner is better than having nothing. Come to think of it, having no owner would be better than having Bud Selig making the decisions.

CA - Brian Schneider - This was a disappointing position for the Expos in 2003. Schneider got a real chance to play after the meltdown of Michael Barrett, then had a bit of a meltdown of his own, batting only .226 after the All-Star Break. Schneider's record is full of dramatic splits, including a .179 batting average against left-handers; a .191 average on the road; a .208 average during the day; a .189 average on grass; and a .198 average in the outdoors. He's inexpensive and has hitting ability, so he is an ideal option for the Expos; they just need to find a way to only use him against right-handers at home in the dome at night.

1B - Nick Johnson - Johnson is a sabermetrician's wet dream, a player who could post a .400 on-base percentage if he batted all year with his eyes closed. He has some power, and the potential for more. With Vlad Guerrero out of town, Johnson should be the Expos' offensive star in 2004.
      His career has been hampered badly by injuries, mostly to his hands and wrists. Last year was a breakthrough season, but it would have been even better had he not fractured his hand in May. He could be a star if he stays healthy, but more likely he will become the next Kal Daniels.

2B - Jose Vidro - With the departure of Vlad Guerrero, Vidro is now Montreal's best player. He's a switch-hitting second baseman, consistently hits between .310-.320 each year with 15-20 homers, 35-45 doubles. He's among the more complete players in the game, though knee problems have slowed him down, and may weaken his durability.

3B - Tony Batista - He was just awful last year. A .270 on-base percentage, for a third baseman (or anybody) is unacceptable. He doesn't have enough power to compensate for his poor plate discipline; he had 75 extra-base hits in 2000, but only 47 last year. His 99 RBI were a function of his playing time and spot in the batting order; he hit poorly with runners on base (.243) and runners in scoring position (.238).
      Batista will play because he drives in runs, is a proven veteran, and is better than Fernando Tatis. And he's not a hopeless case; his career has already twice come back from the dead. But at age 30, he may be running out of lives.

SS - Orlando Cabrera - A very good defensive shortstop who has a bit of power, though his numbers were grossly inflated by his two home parks. He hit .332 with a .515 slugging average in Montreal and Puerto Rico, .265 with a .409 slugging average everywhere else. The latter numbers are closer to his real level of ability.

LF -Terrmel Sledge/Juan Rivera - Rivera has hit at least .325, with some power, in three straight seasons at Columbus. But he was never a part of the Yankees' future, and is now 26 years old and has lost prospect status. He may not have great potential but he deserves a chance to fail.
      Sledge is 27 years old, has never played a game in the majors. He had a big year at Edmonton, is hoping to be a late-bloomer in the Geronimo Berroa mold.

CF - Brad Wilkerson - A young Paul O'Neill (with the bat, anyways). Like the other Expos, his numbers are inflated by his home parks. He has power and excellent plate discipline, and he hits left-handers well; he just needs to do a better job of hitting good pitches when he gets them.

RF - Carl Everett - He has the thankless task of replacing Vlad Guerrero. And just might do a decent job. Everett has great hitting talent, but also has a few screws loose and is unpredictable. Maybe the anonymity of playing in Montreal will suit him.

SP - Livan Hernandez - He had the best season of his career, and was quietly one of the best pitchers in the league. Hernandez was having a typical humdrum through the end of June, then apparently changed his arm angle and was almost unhittable in July and August. Only 29 years old but has thrown a bujillion pitches; the Expos will be hoping he can get off to a good start to the season so they can deal his salary.

SP - Tony Armas Jr. - Was brilliant for five starts, then tore his rotator cuff. I hate it when then happens... is expected back for spring training. With the trade of Vazquez, and the inevitable trade of Hernandez, Armas figures to be the Expos' ace by the second half of 2004.

SP - Toma Ohka - At the time of the deal, the Urbina trade was labelled as another salary dump by the Expos — but as it turns out, they got the better end of the deal. Ohka has been a fine pitcher the past two seasons; some of his numbers from last year are a little ugly, but he gets no help from his home parks.

SP - Zach Day - His first year in the starting rotation began brilliantly, but was ended prematurely by a slightly torn rotator cuff. He gets lots of ground balls, which is good, but he needs much better control and a better strikeout pitch. He's OK, but given the improvements he needs to make, and his injury history, his chances of real success are dim.

SP - Claudio Vargas - Had a solid rookie season, but also had shoulder problems. Needs better health and needs to throw more strikes.

RP - Rocky Biddle - Once one of the White Sox' bright young pitching prospects, Biddle made an unimpressive debut as the Expos' closer. He saved 34 games, but gave up too many hits, walked too many batters, threw too many wild pitches, didn't strike out enough batters.
      To be fair, he pitched reasonably well the first four months of the season before imploding in August. Still, he's indistinguishable from about 30 other non-closers, and will only keep the job if the Expos can't find anyone better.

Chicago Cubs

Every year I make lots of Cubs jokes; they're easy to do, as the Cubs have been making the same mistakes over and over for the past 90 years. I know I've made a few jokes this year, but I'm also going to throw caution to the wind and pick them to win their division. Yeah, they have their share of weaknesses, but so do all of the teams in the NL Central. What the Cubs have that the other team's don't is Mark Prior. I know the guy already gets more than enough hype as it is, but... he deserves it. There's no obvious reason why Prior can't do for the Cubs what Seaver did for the Mets in the late 60's, or what Clemens did for the Red Sox in the mid-80's.

CA - Michael Barrett - You know there are some strange winds a-blowin' in Chicago when the Cubs trade in their beloved veteran catchers (Girardi, Miller) for a young guy. Barrett's career has been a disappointment, but he has played very well at times.

1B - Derrek Lee - Lee's a good hitter who spent six years playing in virtual anonymity until the Marlins found themselves in the playoffs this year. He made an impression; though he struggled with his bat in the postseason, he had a few big hits, and showed off his brilliant defensive work. He is the only 6'5" player I have ever seen do the splits; I think you can make a good case that he has a greater reach than any first baseman in baseball history.
      Moving to Wrigley should juice his power numbers. Over the past three years, Lee has hit 28 home runs at home, 51 on the road.

2B - Todd Walker/Mark Grudzielanek - I would love to have been at the meeting where Cubs' management decided that they needed both Todd Walker and Mark Grudzielanek. They're both OK, veteran players, but why do you need two of them?

3B - Aramis Ramirez - He is big and strong. Hit .300 with 34 home runs when he was 23 years old, has been a disappointment since but last year was a decent comeback season. Capable of hitting 40 homers in a season.
      Ramirez led the league with 33 errors last year at third base, and I don't think he compensates with great range.

SS - Alex Gonzalez - He is a damn consistent hitter; his production, such that it is, rarely changes from year to year. Last season, his batting average was down, but he made up for it with more homers, some of the game-winning variety. On the whole, he's a lousy hitter, but at least you know what to expect.
      Alex is also an outstanding defensive shortstop, has been for several years; he makes his money with his glove. Unfortunately, his reputation took a hit — no, wait, make that a savage blow to the body — when he made a devastating error in the playoffs against Florida.
      Oh well, one play does not make a player. On a day-to-day basis, there are few shortstops who I would rather have in the field. He's OK, will survive another year.

LF - Moises Alou - Just another left fielder now, not a very dangerous hitter, 37 years old.

CF - Corey Patterson - A very talented young player who was having a fine season until he tore up his knee in the summer.

RF - Sammy Sosa - On the corked bat issue, I tend to believe that Sammy just made an honest mistake. Either that, or he's really stupid. Corking a 33-ounce bat with a thin handle is not a smart idea, because chances are it's gonna break. If you're going to cork a bat, you should use one of Babe Ruth's 50-ounce monsters that you probably couldn't break with dynamite.
      A lot of things went wrong for Sammy, but it was still a good year. He was great in April, June, July and August, not so hot in May or September. Injuries may become a recurring theme from now on, but he's still a devastating power hitter, and probably has a lot of home runs left in him.

SP - Mark Prior - He had the most explosive season by a young power pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986. Apart from the usual concerns about injuries, it is hard to think of a reason why he won't win the Cy Young Award.
      Early in the summer, Prior collided with his teammate, Hee Seop Choi, and gave him a concussion. A few weeks later, while running the bases, he collided with Marcus Giles and gave him a concussion, too. Perhaps a little less body contact would be a good idea.

SP - Kerry Wood - Does anyone know if Wood is married?

SP - Matt Clement - Component ERA is a stat the estimates what a pitcher's ERA should be, based on the number of baserunners he gives up. The past two years, Clement's Component ERA (3.21) is more than a half run lower than his actual ERA (3.86). Prior, Wood and Zambrano all had Component ERA's higher than their actual ERA's.
      Clement's peripherial numbers are fine, but some reason he gives up more runs than he should. He's a good candidate to have a surprise season.

SP - Carlos Zambrano - 22 years old, throws hard, gets a large number of ground balls. I'll take three of those.

SP - Greg Maddux - So the Cubs get his pre-superstar years and his post-superstar years. Sigh. A heck of an improvement over Shawn Estes, though.

RP - LaTroy Hawkins - A disappointment for many years, he now has completed two superlative years as a setup man. He could have been somebody's closer in 2004, but instead joined the Cubs and will set up Borowski; I guess he's comfortable in that role.

RP - Joe Borowski - 33-year-old journeyman who is suddenly one of the better closers in the league. It would be cool if the Cubs could win a World Series, but it would be way cool if they could do it with Borowski as their closer.

Houston Astros

The Astros made lots of noise in the offseason when they signed both Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. Those guys are good pitchers, but this team had a lot of work to do and I'm not convinced that they got it done.
      They were fourth in the league in runs scored last year, playing in a hitter's park. They enter this season with the exact same lineup; three players (Bagwell, Biggio, Kent) are all on the downswing of their career, and another (Ausmus) is cooked. There isn't a lot of potential for improvement, except maybe at third base.
      They added Pettitte and Clemens, but the Rocket will be 41 years old. A healthy Oswalt will help, but the loss of Billy Wagner won't go unnoticed.
      The Astros won 87 games last year, and were probably a better team than that. They can withstand injuries to their starting rotation as well as any team in the league. But their roster is really going to have to fight off Father Time to match that total again.

CA - Brad Ausmus - He had such a horrible, miserable year with the bat that playing him in 140 games cannot possibly be justified. The Astros claim that they like his defense, but there are dozens of fine defensive catchers who don't have jobs who can hitter better than Ausmus.
      The pitchers say they enjoy throwing to him, but that doesn't mean he makes them better. Josh Beckett was bitching and complaining early last season about Pudge's inability to call a game, but they worked it out OK.

1B - Jeff Bagwell - Something went terribly wrong in May — he hit just one home run — but the rest of the season was fine. He hit 39 home runs in what was one of the weaker seasons of his career. Now 35 years old, has a bad shoulder. Like Biggio, looking for a chance to redeem himself in October.

2B - Jeff Kent - He had another good year, driving in 93 runs despite a wrist injury that put him on the DL.
      I have no idea what Kent's chances are at the Hall of Fame, but I wonder if it is just a matter of piling up the career stats now. Kent has won an MVP Award, and four times has finished in the top ten in voting. That's better than Ryne Sandberg, better than Lou Whitaker or Bobby Grich. Hell, it's better than Robbie Alomar and Craig Biggio have fared.
      It's hard to imagine that anybody could argue, as they do with Rafael Palmeiro and Bert Blyleven, that Kent was not an elite player. If he reaches 350 homers and 1400 RBI (both very reachable goals), what argument will be used against him?

3B - Morgan Ensberg - He spent much of the year fighting for playing time with Geoff Blum, despite his big power numbers. Now he'll get his chance; Ensberg and Kent will probably provide similar offense, despite their very uneven salaries.

SS - Adam Everett - Totally unremarkable shortstop.

LF - Richard Hidalgo - The more you look at his 2000 season, the more you realize that it just couldn't have been a fluke. And it wasn't; after two hugely disappointing seasons, Hidalgo was back among the better players in the league. He had very good numbers at the plate, and led the league with 22 outfield assists. Unpredictable, but will be playing for a new contract.

CF - Craig Biggio - He played the entire year in centre field, and played well, the second time in his career he has made a successful transition to a new position. He's going to pass 2500 hits this season, and still has a shot at 3000. He may also set a new record for getting hit by pitches in a career.
      You can never be sure, but I think that Biggio has to be close to a lock to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Now that Paul Molitor is in, I don't know what argument you could make against Biggio. The only black mark on his career is his failures in the playoffs. There's a good chance he'll get another shot at redeeming himself this year.

RF - Lance Berkman - His power numbers were down but otherwise it was another really good year. He has no power from the right side of the plate, and though he can hit for average and get on base from the right side, it still might be a good idea to try just batting left-handed and see what happens.

SP - Roy Oswalt - A brilliant pitcher who made three trips to the disabled list with a strained groin. It is, presumably, easier to fix a strained groin than a torn rotator cuff, so Oswalt's future remains bright.

SP - Andy Pettitte - He won 21 games last year, though he didn't really pitch that well; his team gave him fantastic run support (7.04 runs per game, second-highest in the league).
      On the other hand, Pettitte posted the best strikeout rate of his career, and an excellent strikeout/walk ratio. Given his experience, his history of performing under pressure and his improving command of the strike zone, I would love to have Pettitte at this stage of his career.

SP - Wade Miller - Has averaged 15 wins a year the past three years. A good pitcher, but can't handle a heavy workload. Actually, he led the Astros with 187 innings pitched last year, though he was bothered by nagging injuries all year. Given the amazing depth that the Astros now have in their starting rotation, there shouldn't be as much pressure on Miller to pitch hurt this year.

SP - Roger Clemens - He's coming off of a pretty good season; though he will be 41, it would be hard to argue that Clemens is done after winning 17 games and striking out 190 batters. He had an ERA of 8.67 against the Red Sox, 3.22 against the rest of the league. The Astros don't visit Boston this year, so if Clemens' heart is in it then he should give them a big boost.

SP - Tim Redding - He pitched very well but had a losing record. Redding was once a very good prospect, and has quietly made the transition into a quality pitcher.

RP - Jeriome Robertson - Won 15 games, though he didn't pitch that well; now moves into the bullpen. The Astros have plenty of health issues in their starting rotation, and Robertson is solid insurance.

RP - Brandon Duckworth - He could probably start for many teams, but is #7 on the Astros' rotation depth chart.

RP - Brad Lidge - Another Astro reliever who throws really hard. Now that Dotel's the closer, he's the setup man.

RP - Octavio Dotel - A brilliant setup man the past three years, now gets the money job.

St. Louis Cardinals

When the Athletics were winning pennants in the late 1980's, Tony LaRussa was my favourite manager. Reason one, because I was only 14 years old. Reason two, because I had a ball he had autographed. And reason three, because he seemed like the smartest manager in the game.
      Well, he is, or was, a fine manager, and he is pretty smart, and I still have the autographed ball, but it's time to face some realities. One, the Cardinals have not won anything in awhile. Last year, they had the league's best player at four positions, and still didn't win.
      Second, LaRussa, more than anyone else, is responsible for the plague of LOOGY's (Lefty One-Out Guy's) around the league, and the managers who use and abuse them. Here in Toronto, fans had to suffer while Carlos Tosca made three or four pitching changes in single innings, all in a futile effort to get his ineffective Loogy's into key matchups. And the madness all started with LaRussa.
      Third, the Cardinals have produced some blue chip young pitchers over the past few years, but the LaRussa-Duncan combo hasn't done such a good job with them. Alan Benes, a great young pitcher, tore his rotator cuff and never came back. Matt Morris is a great pitcher but has had just about every tendon in his arm reattached at some point. Rick Ankiel, once the best pitching prospect in baseball, first lost his mind and then blew out his elbow. Bud Smith just vanished into thin air.
      Every team has pitching injuries, but pitching injuries are what obviously separate the Cardinals from the Cubs. The Cubs' young pitchers have either avoided injuries, or in the case of Kerry Wood, made a successful comeback. Cardinals pitchers get hurt, and then you never hear from them again.

CA - Mike Matheny - A Gold Glove defensive catcher, also a bad hitter but not terrible as far as catcher's go. Will be 33 years old, has caught over 1000 games; the Cardinals will need a new catcher in another year.

1B - Albert Pujols - As soon as Bonds starts his decline, Pujols will be the best hitter in baseball. Only 24 years old, still presumably a couple of years away from his prime. I can't think of a reason why he would not win the MVP this season; appendicitis?
      Though he's only been in the league three years, he is one of the greatest young players in baseball history. For Pujols not to have a Hall Of Fame career would require a spectacular flameout, greater than Darryl Strawberry or Cesar Cedeno or anyone else I can think of.

2B - Marlon Anderson/Bo Hart - Anderson is a mediocre veteran but is a known quantity. Hart is very popular, will be on the roster but won't hit enough to be a regular player.

3B - Scott Rolen - He is probably the best third baseman in baseball, a Gold Glover with power, and a .280 hitter who draws walks. His K/BB ratio improves every year; he has been able to avoid major injuries three straight years. He's only 29 years old, could easily hit .300 with 40 home runs.

SS - Edgar Renteria - He's the National League's best shortstop, and there's not much competition. Renteria had a wonderful season, and an argument can be made that he was the best shortstop in baseball not named Alex Rodriguez (a formidable accomplishment). Renteria was very good when he was very young, struggled a bit in his mid-20's, but has emerged as an excellent player in his late 20's. More of the same next year.

LF - Kerry Robinson - It boggles the mind that LaRussa would obsess over bullpen pitching matchups, then invest over 200 at bats in Robinson, a 29-year-old journeyman who can't hit at all. He can't play, but I don't know who else the Cardidals might use here.

CF - Jim Edmonds - Edmonds had his fourth straight monster season for the Cardinals. He had an amazing first half, hitting .303 with 28 home runs, numbers that would have gotten noticed if he hadn't been Albert Pujols' teammate. Edmonds posted his best OPS as a Cardinal, and also won a Gold Glove.
      His value was heavily weighted in the first three months of the season. He hit .214 with 11 home runs after the break; he never went on the disabled list, but he suffered from a sore knee, shoulder, hip, rib cage, calf strain and food poisoning at various points during the season, and any one of them could have hurt his performance.
      The injuries aren't going to go away, and he's not getting younger; I think he has more good years ahead, but with declining playing time. He's going to have to learn to sit and rest when he's sore.

RF - Reggie Sanders - The Cardinals will be his seventh team in seven years. Still a good hitter; hit 31 homers last year and has 249 in his career. Still misses some games with various injuries. Is expected to replace J.D. Drew in the lineup and should do the job.

SP - Matt Morris - A great pitcher, but it's obvious that he's not going to be able to handle 30 starts or 200 innings every year.

SP - Woody Williams - I don't know who Woody thinks he is, winning 18 games at age 36, but anyways I'm rooting for him. Guys like this aren't supposed to be pitching in their upper 30's, but there's no reason to think that he will decline badly in 2004.

SP - Jeff Suppan - He pitched well for Pittsburgh but poorly for Boston. Only 29 years old, but pitches like he is 38; there's not much left.

SP - Jason Marquis de Sade - He really struggled the past two years with the Braves. A young pitcher of very modest talent, fits in well with the Cardinals' pitching malaise.

RP - Jason Isringhausen - The new Gregg Olson, a terrific closer with a nasty curveball who doesn't pitch very often.

Cincinnati Reds

I chose the Reds as my "dark horse" to make the playoffs in 2004, not because I like them, but because I didn't know who else to pick. The Padres? Maybe, but everyone seems to love them, so it won't be a shock if they win. The Mets? Possible, but they're in a tough division.
      The Reds have an awful pitching staff, but sometimes teams get real lucky with their pitching. Their outfield is capable of hitting 120 home runs in a season. Their infield is capable of being adequate. They have the Pirates and Brewers to beat up on. The co-favourites to win the division, the Cubs and Astros, don't exactly have a long history of meeting expectations.
      The Reds are a real longshot to have a winning season. But they're just about the only legitimate "dark horse" I can think of in the National League.

CA - Jason LaRue - Has had the same season three years in a row. Not great, but just about the only Red who can be described as "consistent".

1B - Sean Casey - A terrific player at age 24, but his hitting ability has dimished badly the past four seasons. He doesn't hit .300, doesn't have any power, doesn't walk a lot, hits into a lot of double plays.

2B - D'Angelo Jimenez - He played pretty well last year. Only 26 years old, has spent the last four seasons trying to find a home. The Reds have a serious shortage of infielders, so Jimenez should have a regular job.

3B - Brandon Larson - Last year, Bob Boone predicted that Larson could hit 40 home runs. Instead, he hit .101 in 89 at bats. The Reds need to be realistic about him - he's not a great young hitter. But given their lack of options, they could at least give him a few more at bats and see what he can do with them. Has a chance to be Shea Hillenbrand if things break right.

SS - Barry Larkin/Felipe Lopez - Larkin will be 40 years old, but he gave the Reds 200 quality at bats last year. Lopez was a huge bust, but is only 24 years old, and is capable of playing much better. His attitude has been questioned, but you heard the same stuff about Milton Bradley before last year.

LF - Adam Dunn - Another Red who badly underachieved. Only 24 years old, will be a great player if he can hit .250, and there's no reason why he cannot do that.

CF - Ken Griffey Jr. - Why is he still playing centre field? Griffey is still an outstanding power hitter, but he's prone to leg injuries. Last I checked, the Reds had an opening at first base...

RF - Austin Kearns - And yet another young Red who underachieved. Like Dunn, Kearns is 24 years old, and has already proven that he is an outstanding hitter, capable of an MVP-quality season. So get on with it, already.

SP - Cory Lidle - An OK #4 starter, not an ideal staff ace but what are you gonna do? I'm mildly surprised that no one has tried Lidle out as a closer, given that (1) he's never thrown 200 innings in a season, and (2) he usually pitches great for 60-70 innings a year.

SP - Paul Wilson - He's not a good pitcher but he safely passes the "Better than Ryan Dempster" test. Would be OK as someone's #4 starter.

SP - Jimmy Haynes - His season had no redeeming qualities. His career should be over.

SP - Aaron Harang - Doesn't have great stuff but he throws strikes. Expectations for Harang should be modest, but he should be better than Lidle, Wilson or Haynes. Also needs to prove that he can throw 200 innings in a season.

SP - Brandon Claussen - The Yankees' top pitching prospect, traded to Cincinnati in the Aaron Boone deal. To say that the Reds have high hopes for him is like saying that George Bush has high hopes for democracy in Iraq. 25 years old, has nothing left to prove in the minors. He does have to prove he's healthy, though.

RP - Danny Graves - A fine closer who moved to the starting rotation, with disastrous results. Is moving back to the bullpen; I presume that he will find his comfort zone and pitch better.

Milwaukee Brewers

Things are looking good in Milwaukee. Not for this year, and probably not for next year, but down the road. They will be getting new owners, which is good because no city deserves to be associated with the Selig family for more than 30 years. They have competent management, they have a few decent players, and they have a great farm system. Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks rank among the best prospects in baseball, and should be playing within two years. And they're not alone; the Brewers have many fine prospects.

CA - Chad Moeller - He has done a terrific job the past two years as a part-timer. At age 29, he may be asked to play much more often than he ever has before.

1B - Lyle Overbay - His rookie season didn't impress anybody. But if Randall Simon can keep getting at bats, then surely Lyle Overbay can.

2B - Junior Spivey - He should be a nice addition to the Brewers. Spivey's season was a disappointment after he overachieved in 2002. But even though he hit just .255 and struck out a whole lot, he still hit for more power than the typical second baseman and will take a walk. An ankle injury also contributed to his lost season. A real good player if he hits over .270.

3B - Wes Helms - In his first year as a regular, he did about what could be expected, maybe a little better. Will likely be in Milwaukee for a few years; I don't think he will get much better, except that he will probably learn to draw a few more walks.

SS - Craig Counsell - Last year was his weakest in an Arizona uniform. A versatile veteran, shouldn't be a regular and shouldn't get more than 200 at bats.

LF - Geoff Jenkins - He fully recovered from his ankle injury and had a terrific season. Not only was he hitting for average and power, but he also drew 58 walks. What, was he reading Baseball Prospectus while in rehab?
      A broken thumb ended his season in August. He's prone to injuries, most of which appear to be flukes though I guess if you have enough of them a trend emerges. Obviously capable of hitting 40 homers in a season.

CF - Scott Podsednik - Podsednik had some kind of rookie season at age 27. Either his season was a complete fluke, or he finally just got a chance to prove himself. Probably a bit of both; Podsednik's batting average will likely drop 20 points, but otherwise I expect a similar kind of season.

RF - Ben Grieve - One of baseball's most puzzling underachievers; had a career highlight in June when Lou Piniella freaked out on him. He also struggled with a thumb infection, and had part of a rib removed. There is some logic in taking a chance on a player when his value is low... and Grieve's value can't get any lower than it is now.

SP - Ben Sheets - He wasn't good, but he stayed healthy and has a fine strikeout/walk ratio. Only 25 years old, will be a good pitcher.

SP - Doug Davis - Struggled with Toronto and Texas and in the American League, then moved onto Milwaukee and pitched brilliantly in eight starts. He had a nice run, but don't be fooled; he can't pitch.

SP - Matt Kinney - He struggled, again, but his strikeout rate and strikeout/walk ratio have both made dramatic improvements the past two seasons. Has good stuff; definitely a pitcher I would like to have in 2004.

SP - Wayne Franklin - Journeyman pitcher who gives up lots of walks and home runs. No future.

RP - Danny Kolb - He wasted four years of his career floundering in Texas, then last year got a chance at the closer's job in Milwaukee, and did a real good job. He's not going to be great — his control is too poor — but he should be good enough for the Brewers.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Bucs have earned themselves a reputation as one of baseball's poorest teams, and also one of the worst managed. They have a new ballpark that by all accounts is very beautiful, but it hasn't been a cash bonanza. Owner Kevin McClatchy is cash-poor, and his partners are bailing on him.
      The Pirates don't produce good young players; instead, they like to fill their roster with veteran players whom no one else wants. They have done a decent job of trading those veterans and acquiring good young players (Craig Wilson, Kip Wells, Oliver Perez, Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez), but are reluctant to actually give them a chance to grow and develop.

CA - Jason Kendall - Funny how priorities change. The Pirates gave Kendall a big whopping contract, and soon decided that it was an albatross after two disappointing seasons. Then he has a great year like he had last year, and... well, the Pirates are still hoping to deal him.

1B - Craig Wilson/Randall Simon - Exodus 32.37 And so Moses descended upon PNC Park, and cried, "Pharoah! Let Craig Wilson go!" And then with his staff he smote Randall Simon and turned him into a bratwurst.

2B - Abraham Nunez - Or Bobby Hill or someone. Freddy Sanchez was the prize prospect they received from Boston, but he had a bone spur removed during the winter and won't be ready to start the season. Sanchez can hit, and Hill probably can too if they give him the chance. Nunez is very mediocre but is a known quantity, so he will probably get the job.

3B - Chris Stynes - A journeyman's journeyman. Plays all over the field and isn't terrible with the bat.

SS - Jack Wilson - No-hit shortstop who makes all the routine plays, and occasionally shows some pizzazz in the field. Wilson made his debut in 1876, and has been repeatedly reincarnated over the past 130 years.

LF - Jason Bay - He came from San Diego in the Giles deal. Bay had a big year at Portland, then had a great month with the Bucs. 25 years old, has power and speed and good plate discipline. He should be a good player, not likely to be a star.
      Amazingly, he may have to fight for playing time with Henry Rodriguez, who is 36 years old and hasn't played in three years.

CF - Tike Redman - His career was on the rocks, but he played well at Nashville and made the most of his chance with the big club, batting .330 in just over 200 at bats with the Pirates.
      Redman is a player in the Juan Pierre-mold. You know the type; fast, left-handed centre fielder with no power, needs to slap the ball and use his speed. There are hundreds of guys like this, and now and then one of them actually makes it.

RF - Raul Mondesi - Strangely enough, he had his best season in about five years. Mondesi is a decent player, but will always be considered a disappointment, with some justification.

SP - Kip Wells - His ERA has dropped four straight years,, and he now has to be considered one of the best pitchers in the league. Definitely capable of winning 18-20 games if he gets any support from his team.

SP - Josh Fogg - Had a disturbing sophomore season. He doesn't have a strikeout pitch, gives up home runs and doesn't have great control. His future is in long relief.

SP - Oliver Perez - Young pitcher with a fantastic arm. Perez struggled in his sophomore season and was acquired by the Pirates in the Brian Giles deal. But even in a tough year, he struck out more than a batter per inning. His future is bright... assuming, of course, that he doesn't spend the season at Nashville.

SP - Kris Benson - His career is sliding in the wrong direction. Some pitchers get stronger following reconstructive surgery, but Benson doesn't appear to be one of them.

SP - Rick Reed - A survivor, should perhaps consider learning the knuckleball.

RP - Jose Mesa - I guess everyone is entitled to an off year; or, in Mesa's case, five or six. 38 years old and coming off the worst season of his career, but the Pirates appear ready to give him a chance for a third (fourth?) comeback.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The National League West is about as wide-open as any division in baseball. Everyone except the Rockies has a legitimate chance to win, and I'm not sure if there is a favourite. The Giants were great last year, but they have serious questions about age, and the health of their pitching staff. The Dodgers have great pitching, but no hitting. The Padres have made some big improvements, but have a long way to go.
      And there are the Diamondbacks. They, too, have some key players in their advancing years, specifically Randy Johnson, Steve Finley, Luis Gonzalez and Robbie Alomar. They are also in the arduous process of rebuilding a pitching staff that used to rely on two pitchers it can no longer rely on. That said, I think they will win the division.
      They've got some age, but they also have some impressive young players, including Alex Cintron, Brandon Webb, Casey Fossum and Oscar Villarreal. They've got a solid lineup, a solid bullpen, and a starting rotation with potential. They added Richie Sexson to give them more power. They're not the clear favourites, but I like their mix of talent.

CA - Robby Hammock - 27 year old catcher, can hit a bit but hasn't proven that he can play behind the plate on a regular basis.

1B - Richie Sexson - After struggling a bit with injuries in 2002, he emphatically re-established himself as one of the top power hitters in the league, smashing 20 homers after the All-Star break. His walks total went up for the sixth straight season; though a wild swinger when he first came up, he now resembles his former mentor, Jim Thome, at the plate. Sexson will probably be a better hitter than Thome within a couple of years, but likely won't be making as much money.

2B - Roberto Alomar - Has been aggressively mediocre the past two seasons. I guess if Carlos Baerga can have a comeback with the DBacks, then Robbie can, too.

3B - Shea Hillenbrand - Keep swingin'.

SS - Alex Cintron - Still needs to prove himself with the glove, but otherwise looks like a terrific young player. How in the world did he lose the shortstop job to Tony Womack? What was Bob Brenly thinking? Or smoking?

LF - Luis Gonzalez - Once hit 57 home runs in a season, but has so far avoided being tainted by the steroids scandal. Gonzalez is one of those guys who doesn't look like he's bulked up, yet still looks like he's as strong as an ox.

CF - Steve Finley - At age 38, he had almost the exact same season that he had at age 37. Finley was really good, again; he was fantastic for three months (May-July) in the summer, but a disastrous August (.192 batting average) hurt his numbers. Apart from his age, there is little evidence of impending decline.

RF - Danny Bautista - After three surprising seasons, his performance returned the level we expect. Even when he's good, he can't stay healthy; at age 32, his best days are done.

SP - Randy Johnson - 40 years old but still looks like he could strike out 400 batters in a season. In baseball's vast history, there are no other Big Units to compare him to; I hate to sound like a know-nothing, but I'm as much in the dark as you are about how he will perform.

SP - Brandon Webb - Baseball's most impressive rookie pitcher in 2003, Webb is a right-hander in the Kevin Brown mold, gets lots of strikeouts and also a huge number of ground balls. the Diamondbacks again have one of the top Cy Young candidates in the league, but it isn't Johnson or Schilling.

SP - Casey Fossum - Fossum looked great in 2002, but struggled last season with the Red Sox, and had minor surgery after the season. He was then traded to the DBacks in the Schilling deal.
      It may be impossible to replace Schilling and Johnson, but the Diamondbacks at least had to try. To their credit, they have done a damn good job; Webb and Fossum are two exciting young pitchers.

SP - Elmer Dessens - That was bad.

RP - Oscar Villarreal - I'm not sure what to make of his rookie season. The 86 games, 98 innings pitched, 10 wins and 2.57 ERA, all at age 21, look great. The 46 walks and 12 unearned runs allowed don't look so good. He looks good but I have no idea which way his numbers will bounce next season, or if he can even handle the workload.

RP - Matt Mantei - Throws very hard, but doesn't throw very often.

San Francisco Giants

I've always been a fan of Felipe Alou, and we finally got a chance to watch him manage in the playoffs, and the results... weren't pretty. It's not Alou's fault, of course, that Jose Cruz forgot how to catch the ball. But it still difficult to believe that the Giants played a four-game series, and that their two best pitchers started only one game each.
      Jason Schmidt throws a three-hit shutout in Game One... and three days later isn't able to pitch? They must have had some inkling that Schmidt's shoulder wasn't entirely healthy, in which case Ponson should have started Game One. Either way, one of them has to come out and pitch Game Four.
      Repeating last year's success will be a real challange, and so far, the Giants have yet to met that challenge. They need to rely less on an aging Barry Bonds, and spread the offense around a bit — and that ain't going to happen with Neifi Perez and Michael Tucker in the lineup. They're best two pitchers (Schmidt, Nen) both may be finished.
      One thing Felipe Alou was able to do in Montreal was produce good starting pitchers out of nowhere. Ken Hill, Jeff Fassero, Butch Henry... he kept finding guys. Given the uncertainty this team is facing, he is going to have to do that again.

CA - A.J. Pierzynski - The Giants got themselves a player when they traded for Pierzynski. He hits .300 and has line drive power. He got more playing time against left-handers than he ever had before, and hit them well (.281 average). He hits both at home and on the road; he doesn't walk much, but got hit by 15 pitches. The Twins traded him because they needed to make room for a super-prospect; a lot of teams should be kicking themselves for not offering a better deal than the Giants did.

1B - J.T. Snow - A consistent player, has given the Giants seven years of consistent non-production at first base. 36 years old, must be nearing the end.

2B - Ray Durham - He played pretty well when he was in the lineup, but his first season with the Giants was spoiled by assorted ankle and hamstring problems. He will be 32 years old, but is a terrific athlete and in the past has been a very durable player. I expect a better season.

3B - Edgardo Alfonzo - Every year, you expect to be wrong about some players, but Alfonzo was a real disappointment. I thought the Giants made a great move when they signed him, and instead... well, he wasn't terrible, but he sure didn't replace Jeff Kent.
      To be fair, Alfonzo had a horrible first half, then played quite well in the second half. He was tremendous in September and in the playoffs. And he's a good defensive player. Sometimes, you need a little faith; I think Alfonzo will be back in All-Star form in 2004.

SS - Neifi Perez - Why is Neifi Perez a regular shortstop? Walt Weiss is 40 years old and hasn't played in three years, but would be a better option.

LF - Barry Bonds - Will be 40 years old in 2004. Has won six MVP awards. Just completed the greatest trifecta in baseball history. Has hit 658 home runs, also has 500 stolen bases. Has been intentionally walked 129 times over the past two seasons.

CF - Marquis Grissom - Did you know that Grissom has over 2000 hits and over 200 home runs? It is remarkable that he is still playing on a regular basis, given that his greatest asset when he was young - his tremendous speed - has evaporated. He's still an OK outfielder, but he hardly ever steals bases anymore.

RF - Michael Tucker/Dustan Mohr - Tucker is a .250 hitter with weak secondary skills, definitely not a guy who should bat 400 times in a season, as he has done the past three years. Mohr is similar but is five years younger; neither has any upside.

SP - Jason Schmidt - He had a brilliant season, but wasn't able to make his scheduled start in Game Four of the NLDS, then had surgery on his elbow after the season. It must not have been too serious, because the latest reports are saying that he will start opening day. He is a great pitcher, but his future is still a question mark.

SP - Brett Tomko - Has acquired the reputation as a guy who can give you 200 innings a year; problem is, they aren't very good innings. Has been a below-average pitcher every year since his rookie season. 31 years old, strikeout rates are in steady decline.

SP - Kirk Rueter - He walked more batters than he struck out, the first time he had done that. Rueter is a survivor, and has proven that he can win without a good strikeout rate, but he is 33 years old. If I had any guts, I would declare that his career is over... well, I'll just leave it at that.

SP - Jerome Williams - He had a fine rookie season at age 21. He entered the year behind Foppert and Ainsworth on the prospect's chart, but was the healthiest of the three. Good health will beat a good fastball every time.

RP - Felix Rodriguez - 31 years old and headed for disaster. His innings and strikeouts are going down while his walks are going up. Needs to reverse these trends, and needs to do it quick.

RP - Robb Nen - Had surgery on his shoulder in May, expects to pitch in 2004.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers last year had a great pitching staff, easily the best in the league. But as great as the pitching was, their offense was equally inept, the absolute worst in the league.
      You would think that they would try to convert some of that pitching into some good hitters, but it didn't happen. Nothing happened, except for the trade that sent ace Kevin Brown to the Yankees for Jeff Weaver. Management's paralysis was likely at least partly due to the sale of the team during the winter.
      Even without Brown, the pitching will be very good. But even if Shawn Green has a comeback season, the hitting will likely be awful. The division is very winnable, but the Dodgers still need help.
      (SPRING NOTE: The team's website is reporting that Jim Tracy is considering moving Cesar Izturis to the #2 slot in the batting order. Here's hoping he gets that on-base percentage above .250!)

CA - Paul Lo Duca - For the second year in a row Lo Duca had a very good first half (.307 average) but an awful second half (.226 average, only one home run). Since his breakthrough season in 2001, Lo Duca's batting average and home run totals have both taken a pair of tumbles; he's still a decent hitter, for a catcher, but at age 31 his upside is minimal.

1B - Shawn Green - ESPN Insider costs $40.00 a year; for that price, you get dynamite scouting reports, like this one from June 20:

      "Shawn Green has been feeling for the ball. He's been pressing, and he looks awful at the plate. He's a streaky guy in the first place, and he's trying too hard because the Dodgers aren't hitting and I think he feels like he's got to justify the money he's making. He's expanding the zone and looks confused at the plate. I think people have been trying to get him to go the other way, but the problem is, he's trying to do that with pitches he should pull. Then, when there's something he should take the other way, he's trying to pull."

      Uh, and oh yeah, he was playing the entire season with a bum shoulder that required surgery in the offseason. What was most depressing for Dodgers fans is that, despite all of his struggles, Green was still the team's best hitter. At this writing, he is expected to move to first base, though he doesn't seem to like it. Will hit 30 home runs again.

2B - Alex Cora - A wonderful defensive second baseman, but just an awful hitter. It would be nice if we could take his 2002 season and bottle it, but it appears to be a fluke; he can't hit.

3B - Adrian Beltre - His career continues to disappoint. But you know, I'd still like to have him on my team. Beltre's an OK hitter who has some pop in his bat, and he's a terrific defensive third baseman. And he won't turn 25 till April, so yes, there's still a decent chance he can break through with a big season.

SS - Cesar Izturis - He has an excellent glove, but a horrible bat. Only 24 years old, he raised his batting average 20 points, his OBA 30 points, but was still among the worst hitters in the league. The Dodgers need to score more runs... but are probably better off upgrading in the outfield, and waiting to see if Izturis can continue to improve with the bat. He isn't any worse than Omar Vizquel was at the same age.

LF - Zack Wheat's Ghost

CF - Dave Roberts - 31-year-old journeymen need to play a lot better than he did to keep their job. Fortunately, he plays for the Dodgers, who so far have been unable to convince Duke Snider to come out of retirement.

RF - Juan Encarnacion - The good news was that he had 600 at bats for the World Champs, and had a solid season. Unfortunately for Encarnacion, the acquisition of Jeff Conine, the arrival of Miguel Cabrera, and the return to health of Mike Lowell, left the Marlins with four outfielders in the playoffs. McKeon decided to go with Conine and Cabrera, which meant that Encarnacion had to spend much of the postseason on the bench.
      That shouldn't be a problem in Los Angeles, where the Dodgers are so short of outfielders that Jose Canseco is getting a spring tryout.

SP - Hideo Nomo - He had his best season since his rookie year. Pitching in Dodger Stadium, with the Dodgers' infield behind him, has rejuvenated his career; Nomo should think seriously about making a permanent home in LA.

SP - Odalis Perez - The Dodgers' version of Jeff Weaver. A good pitcher who will have better years; given that he quarreled with management last year, and would bring some good hitters in a trade (which the Dodgers desperately need), it is a little surprising to still see him in a Dodger uniform.

SP - Jeff Weaver - Escaping the pressure of pitching in New York, also trading the Yankees' defense (or lack thereof) for the Dodgers'. Will have a good year.

SP - Kaz Ishii - He had almost the same season that he had in his rookie year, only with fewer wins. Ishii's control is poor and it doesn't look like it's going to get better; he's a mediocre pitcher unless he throws more innings or more strikes. The Dodgers' infield bails him out a lot.

RP - Eric Gagne - I boldly predict that he will give up a hit before May 1st.

San Diego Padres

The Padres are the most improved team in the NL West. Hell, they might be the most improved team in the entire National League. They have Brian Giles for a full year, Nevin and Klesko will be healthier, Trevor Hoffman will be back, plus they added David Wells, Jay Payton, Ramon Hernandez and some other quality players.
      Of course, they lost 98 games last year, so even if they were to improve by, say, 20 games, they would probably still fall well short of a playoff spot. The good news is that the Giants and Diamondbacks are getting old fast, the Dodgers didn't do a damn thing during the winter and the Rockies are just hopeless. There is hope in San Diego.

CA - Ramon Hernandez - Hernandez had a very good year; he hit far better than he had in any previous season, and his defense was excellent. The Padres will give him all the playing time he wants. I expect his average to drop to the .250 range, and he won't hit 20 home runs again.

1B - Phil Nevin - He separated his shoulder in a fluke injury in the spring, was supposed to be out for the season but came back in July and played well.
      It's hard to believe, but Nevin may have done the Padres a favour when he refused the trade to the Reds in exchange for Griffey Jr. He just needs to stay healthy and behave himself.

2B - Mark Loretta - At age 31 he suddenly established himself as one of the better players in the league. There is some reason to think it was a fluke, but I don't think so; Loretta always seemed like a guy who could flourish if he could just get the hell out of Milwaukee. The greedy Padres signed him to a two-year extension, dashing the hopes of Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Minnesota, the ChiSox and various other teams who are in need of a good second baseman.

3B - Sean Burroughs - Burroughs' sophomore year was a solid improvement over his rookie season. He's only 24 years old, and I don't think there is any doubt that he is going to hit .300.
      Burroughs has been tagged as a player who would develop power over time, but we're still waiting. He didn't hit for power in the minors and he hasn't hit for any power in the big leagues. I don't see him turning into Jim Thome.

SS - Ramon Vazquez/Khalil Greene - Vazquez has been the Padres' shortstop the past two years, has been OK but has no power and can't hit southpaws. Greene is younger (24) and will get a chance to win the job in the spring. He's an OK prospect, may remind San Diego fans a lot of Chris Gomez.

LF - Ryan Klesko - He is a good hitter who combines power with patience. A right shoulder injury ruined his season last year; he hit 19 home runs before the All-Star break (though with a disappointing .262 average), but had no power in the second half and was shut down in September.
Klesko's problems with southpaws came back and bit him last season (a .194 average). I don't expect that he will age well; his list of most similar players includes a lot of guys who hit the wall in their early 30's. With luck, he has one more solid season before decline sets in.

CF - Jay Payton - At age 30, Payton finally got the opportunity to play a full season. He did well; even taking park effects into account, it was a solid season. OK hitter, good defensive player, hits into lots of double plays.

RF - Brian Giles - He hurt his knee in April and lost some power. That is just about his only negative in the past five years. Giles had almost twice as many walks as strikeouts, hit .299 with decent power. Will be 33 years old but there is no evidence of decline; he's one of the best hitters in baseball. The Padres should have a scary left-right-left trio in Giles, Nevin and Klesko, assuming they can all stay healthy.

SP - David Wells - He had another good season, remarkably, and now has 200 career wins.

SP - Brian Lawrence - He was the ace, by default, and was OK. Lawrence would be a good guy at the back end of the rotation; he has good control and can pitch 200 innings. But his strikeout rate dropped dramatically; I will be surprised if he's still pitching in his 30's.

SP - Adam Eaton - In his first full season following reconstructive surgery on his elbow, he was awfully impressive. He's still making adjustments, but the stuff is there, and his strikeout/walk data are excellent. Only 26 years old, health is the only barrier between Eaton and a good career.

SP - Jake Peavy - Outstanding young pitcher who had a good sophomore season. He needs to cut down on the walks or the home runs or both, but otherwise he should be a terrific pitcher.

RP - Rod Beck - Nobody wanted Beck, who missed all of the 2002 season; the Padres only gave him a chance because they lost Hoffman. Once he was back in the big leagues, he made the game look ridiculously easy. Like Hoffman, he is a good pitcher, but he won't be a workhorse in the pen.

RP - Trevor Hoffman - Had his shoulder repaired, came back in September and threw nine impressive innings. Will again be the closer in 2004, at age 36; he's a terrific pitcher but I doubt he will throw more than 50 innings.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have the same winter, every year. This year, they added Vinny Castilla, Jeromy Burnitz and some other players that no one else would want on their team. If the Rockies were to ever acquire a good player, Colorado fans might hold a ticker-tape parade. Todd Helton is great, and they have one or two decent pitchers, but the rest of the roster just sucks.

CA - Charles Johnson - He hit .153 on the road. An excellent defensive catcher and only 32 years old, but he's finished as a hitter.

1B - Todd Helton - Helton was probably the best first baseman in the National League in 2003, maybe the best in baseball. He still had a large home/road split, but a .949 OPS on the road is nothing to sneeze at, especially given the strong pitching and unfriendly parks in the NL West. Helton had a remarkable second half, batting .385 in both July and August, then .383 in September, missing an opportunity to win the batting title when he was intentionally walked in his final at bat.
      A left-handed batter, Helton hit .387 against lefties. He's one of the best hitters in baseball, in any park.

2B - Damian Jackson or Somebody - Whoever they are, they probably won't be good.

3B - Vinny Castilla - Since 1998, the Rockies have used Castilla, Jeff Cirillo, Todd Zeile and Chris Stynes at third base. Now, Castilla is back... unfortunately, at this stage of his career, he just continues the downward trend.

SS - Royce Clayton - Despite hefty competition from around the league, it's unlikely that any team will have a worse left side of the infield than the Rockies.

LF - Jeromy Burnitz - He was having a great comeback season with the Mets until mid-July, when he was traded to the Dodgers. Burnitz hit just .204 in Los Angeles; even more disappointing was his unwillingness to take a walk. His .299 OBA was a career low; in 2000, when he hit just .232, he still had a .356 OBA.
      Burnitz can still hit home runs, and he's moving to Colorado. But he'll be 35 years old, and Coors Field isn't the bandbox that it used to be. He really doesn't have much left.

CF - Preston Wilson - He led the league in RBI in his first season in Colorado, but wasn't really that impressive.

RF - Larry Walker - He is aging gracefully, has lost much of his power but is still an on-base machine, also played in 143 games last year.

SP - Jason Jennings - His sophomore season was OK, given the circumstances. He's a decent young pitcher but with a bad team in a bad park; it will take a heroic effort for him to have any long-term success.

SP - Dennis Stark - After a terrific rookie season in 2002, reality set in, and he had a terrible year. There's not a lot to really like about him, except that he pitches in Colorado and they've got no one better.

SP - Joe Kennedy - He pitched horribly last season, and now will have to sort out his problems in the thin air. He has some ability but he also has an awful pitching motion; even if he does start to pitch well, he'll probably just blow out his elbow.

RP - Shawn Chacon - The Rockies have decided to move their best starting pitcher to the closer's role. Chacon had a great first half of last season, then struggled with elbow problems in the second half. The Rockies are hoping that fewer innings will mean a healthier elbow, but the move is an overreaction. The Rockies need starting pitchers more than they need a closer.

PLAYER RANKINGS

      These rankings are looking forward to 2004; I based them on their Win Shares for the past three seasons, with extra weight given to last year, then made adjustments for young players I expect to improve, old players who will likely decline, players coming back from injuries, etc.

Catcher

 1. Jorge Posada (Yankees)
 2. Ivan Rodriguez (Tigers)
 3. A.J. Pierzynski (Giants)
 4. Paul LoDuca (Dodgers)
 5. Javier Lopez (Orioles)
 6. Jason Kendall (Bucs)
 7. Mike Piazza (Mets)
 8. Ramon Hernandez (Padres)
 9. Jason Varitek (BoSox)
10. Mike Lieberthal (Phillies)
11. Ben Molina (Angels)
12. Joe Mauer (Twins)
13. Victor Martinez (Indians)
14. Miguel Olivo (ChiSox)
15. Mike Redmond (Marlins)
16. Benito Santiago (Royals)
17. Mike Matheny (Cards)
18. Ben Davis (Mariners)
19. Brian Schneider (Expos)
20. Jason LaRue (Reds)
21. Damian Miller (Athletics)
22. Chad Moeller (Brewers)
23. Greg Myers (Jays)
24. Michael Barrett (Cubs)
25. Brad Ausmus (Astros)
26. Toby Hall (Rays)
27. Robin Hammock (DBacks)
28. Charles Johnson (Rockies)
29. Eddie Perez (Braves)
30. Gerald Laird (Rangers)

First Base

 1. Albert Pujols (Cards)
 2. Todd Helton (Rockies)
 3. Jim Thome (Phillies)
 4. Carlos Delgado (Jays)
 5. Jason Giambi (Yankees)
 6. Shawn Green (Dodgers)
 7. Richie Sexson (DBacks)
 8. Derrek Lee (Cubs)
 9. Jeff Bagwell (Astros)
10. Mark Teixeira (Rangers)
11. Mike Sweeney (Royals)
12. Phil Nevin (Padres)
13. Doug Mientkiewicz (Twins)
14. Paul Konerko (ChiSox)
15. Nick Johnson (Expos)
16. Hee Seop Choi (Marlins)
17. Rafael Palmeiro (Orioles)
18. John Olerud (Mariners)
19. Kevin Millar (BoSox)
20. Eric Karros (Athletics)
21. Jason Phillips (Mets)
22. Carlos Pena (Tigers)
23. Sean Casey (Reds)
24. Craig Wilson (Pirates)
25. Ben Broussard (Indians)
26. Tino Martinez (Rays)
27. JT Snow (Giants)
28. Darin Erstad (Angels)
29. Lyle Overbay (Brewers)
30. Braves?

Second Base

 1. Bret Boone (Mariners)
 2. Marcus Giles (Braves)
 3. Jose Vidro (Expos)
 4. Jeff Kent (Astros)
 5. Luis Castillo (Marlins)
 6. Ray Durham (Giants)
 7. Placido Polanco (Phillies)
 8. Mark Loretta (Padres)
 9. Orlando Hudson (Jays)
10. Mark Ellis (Athletics)
11. Jose Reyes (Mets)
12. Adam Kennedy (Angels)
13. Roberto Alomar (DBacks)
14. Mike Young (Rangers)
15. Junior Spivey (Brewers)
16. Todd Walker (Cubs)
17. Jerry Hairston (Orioles)
18. D'Angelo Jimenez (Reds)
19. Alex Cora (Dodgers)
20. Pokey Reese (BoSox)
21. Desi Relaford (Royals)
22. Fernando Vina (Tigers)
23. Rey Sanchez (Rays)
24. Chris Stynes (Pirates)
25. Bo Hart (Cards)
26. Ron Belliard (Indians)
27. Luis Rivas (Twins)
28. Damian Jackson (Rockies)
29. Willie Harris (ChiSox)
30. Yankees?

Third Base

 1. Scott Rolen (Cards)
 2. Eric Chavez (Athletics)
 3. Mike Lowell (Marlins)
 4. Derek Jeter (Yankees)
 5. Corey Koskie (Twins)
 6. Hank Blalock (Rangers)
 7. Troy Glaus (Angels)
 8. Bill Mueller (BoSox)
 9. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
10. Edgardo Alfonzo (Giants)
11. Eric Hinske (Jays)
12. Melvin Mora (Orioles)
13. Sean Burroughs (Padres)
14. Morgan Ensberg (Astros)
15. Adrian Beltre (Dodgers)
16. Joe Crede (ChiSox)
17. Joe Randa (Royals)
18. Shea Hillenbrand (DBacks)
19. Scott Spiezio (Mariners)
20. Wes Helms (Brewers)
21. Ty Wigginton (Mets)
22. Eric Munson (Tigers)
23. Tony Batista (Expos)
24. David Bell (Phillies)
25. Vinny Castilla (Rockies)
26. Geoff Blum (Rays)
27. Casey Blake (Indians)
28. Brandon Larson (Reds)
29. Braves?
30. Pirates?

Shortstop

 1. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
 2. Miguel Tejada (Orioles)
 3. Edgar Renteria (Cards)
 4. Nomar Garciaparra (BoSox)
 5. Alfonso Soriano (Rangers)
 6. Rafael Furcal (Braves)
 7. Orlando Cabrera (Expos)
 8. Angel Berroa (Royals)
 9. Kaz Matsui (Mets)
10. Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)
11. Bobby Crosby (Athletics)
12. Jose Valentin (ChiSox)
13. David Eckstein (Angels)
14. Alex Cintron (DBacks)
15. Alex Gonzalez (Marlins)
16. Rich Aurilia (Mariners)
17. Alex S Gonzalez (Cubs)
18. Carlos Guillen (Tigers)
19. Craig Counsell (Brewers)
20. Cristian Guzman (Twins)
21. Julio Lugo (Rays)
22. Jack Wilson (Pirates)
23. Chris Woodward (Jays)
24. Omar Vizquel (Indians)
25. Barry Larkin (Reds)
26. Cesar Izturis (Dodgers)
27. Ramon Vazquez (Padres)
28. Adam Everett (Astros)
29. Royce Clayton (Rockies)
30. Neifi Perez (Giants)

Left Field

 1. Barry Bonds (Giants)
 2. Manny Ramirez (BoSox)
 3. Chipper Jones (Braves)
 4. Luis Gonzalez (DBacks)
 5. Carlos Lee (ChiSox)
 6. Ryan Klesko (Padres)
 7. Adam Dunn (Reds)
 8. Hidecki Matsui (Yankees)
 9. Richard Hidalgo (Astros)
10. Cliff Floyd (Mets)
11. Geoff Jenkins (Brewers)
12. Pat Burrell (Phillies)
13. Frank Catalanotto (Jays)
14. Jacques Jones (Twins)
15. Jose Guillen (Angels)
16. Moises Alou (Cubs)
17. Juan Gonzalez (Royals)
18. Rondell White (Tigers)
19. Jeff Conine (Marlins)
20. Carl Crawford (Rays)
21. Raul Ibanez (Mariners)
22. Eric Byrnes (Athletics)
23. Kevin Mench (Rangers)
24. Jason Bay (Bucs)
25. Ryan Ludwick (Indians)
26. Jeromy Burnitz (Rockies)
27. Larry Bigbie (Orioles)
28. Termel Sledge (Expos)
29. Kerry Robinson (Cards)
30. Dodgers?

Centre Field

 1. Carlos Beltran (Royals)
 2. Andruw Jones (Braves)
 3. Vernon Wells (Jays)
 4. Jim Edmonds (Cards)
 5. Garret Anderson (Angels)
 6. Mike Cameron (Mets)
 7. Johnny Damon (BoSox)
 8. Brad Wilkerson (Expos)
 9. Scott Podsednik (Brewers)
10. Craig Biggio (Astros)
11. Juan Pierre (Marlins)
12. Marlon Byrd (Phillies)
13. Ken Griffey Jr. (Reds)
14. Torii Hunter (Twins)
15. Mark Kotsay (Athletics)
16. Milton Bradley (Indians)
17. Corey Patterson (Cubs)
18. Kenny Lofton (Yankees)
19. Preston Wilson (Rockies)
20. Laynce Nix (Rangers)
21. Jay Payton (Padres)
22. Randy Winn (Mariners)
23. Rocco Baldelli (Rays)
24. Luis Matos (Orioles)
25. Marquis Grissom (Giants)
26. Steve Finley (DBacks)
27. Aaron Rowand (ChiSox)
28. Tike Redman (Pirates)
29. Dave Roberts (Dodgers)
30. Alex Sanchez (Tigers)

Right Field

 1. Gary Sheffield (Yankees)
 2. Bobby Abreu (Phillies)
 3. Lance Berkman (Astros)
 4. Brian Giles (Padres)
 5. Sammy Sosa (Cubs)
 6. Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners)
 7. Magglio Ordonez (ChiSox)
 8. Vladimir Guerrero (Angels)
 9. Austin Kearns (Reds)
10. Larry Walker (Rockies)
11. Trot Nixon (BoSox)
12. Shannon Stewart (Twins)
13. Jody Gerut (Indians)
14. JD Drew (Braves)
15. Jay Gibbons (Orioles)
16. Bobby Kielty (Athletics)
17. Juan Encarnacion (Dodgers)
18. Reggie Sanders (Cards)
19. Carl Everett (Expos)
20. Jose Cruz (Rays)
21. Miguel Cabrera (Marlins)
22. Reed Johnson (Jays)
23. Brian Jordan (Rangers)
24. Raul Mondesi (Pirates)
25. Bobby Higginson (Tigers)
26. Dustan Mohr (Giants)
27. Ben Grieve (Brewers)
28. Karim Garcia (Mets)
29. Aaron Guiel (Royals)
30. Danny Bautista (DBacks)

Designated Hitter

 1. Aubrey Huff (Rays)
 2. Frank Thomas (ChiSox)
 3. Bernie Williams (Yankees)
 4. Dmitri Young (Tigers)
 5. Tim Salmon (Angels)
 6. Edgar Martinez (Mariners)
 7. Josh Phelps (Jays)
 8. David Ortiz (BoSox)
 9. Erubiel Durazo (Athletics)
10. Brad Fullmer (Rangers)
11. Travis Hafner (Indians)
12. Matt Stairs (Royals)
13. Matt LeCroy (Twins)
14. Jack Cust (Orioles)

Starting Pitchers

 1. Pedro Martinez (BoSox)
 2. Tim Hudson (Athletics)
 3. Roy Halladay (Jays)
 4. Mark Prior (Cubs)
 5. Mark Mulder (Athletics)
 6. Javier Vazquez (Yankees)
 7. Mike Mussina (Yankees)
 8. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
 9. Bartolo Colon (Angels)
10. Barry Zito (Athletics)
11. Curt Schilling (BoSox)
12. Joel Piñiero (Mariners)
13. Mark Buehrle (ChiSox)
14. Kerry Wood (Cubs)
15. Johan Santana (Twins)
16. Brandon Webb (DBacks)
17. Andy Pettitte (Astros)
18. Josh Beckett (Marlins)
19. Kip Wells (Pirates)
20. Jamie Moyer (Mariners)
21. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
22. Randy Johnson (DBacks)
23. Kevin Brown (Yankees)
24. Livan Hernandez (Expos)
25. Esteban Loaiza (ChiSox)
26. Jason Schmidt (Giants)
27. Hideo Nomo (Dodgers)
28. Russ Ortiz (Braves)
29. CC Sabathia (Indians)
30. Matt Morris (Cards)

Relief Pitchers

 1. Eric Gagne (Dodgers)
 2. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
 3. Billy Wagner (Phillies)
 4. Keith Foulke (BoSox)
 5. Octavio Dotel (Astros)
 6. Francisco Rodriguez (Angels)
 7. John Smoltz (Braves)
 8. Eddie Guardado (Mariners)
 9. Damaso Marte (ChiSox)
10. Brendan Donnelly (Angels)
11. LaTroy Hawkins (Cubs)
12. Armando Benitez (Marlins)
13. Joe Borowski (Cubs)
14. Tim Worrell (Phillies)
15. Chad Bradford (Athletics)