2004 Season Preview (American League)
Every year, my previews for the upcoming season get smaller; the reality is that there are many other sites who do this kind of stuff, and they provide much more information than I do. I have neither the time nor the energy to offer a huge amount of content. But the site would seem naked without something, and I enjoy the challenge of trying not to repeat myself every year (though I don't know how successful I am).
I'm also making my preseason award predictions, and rankings for each position. Thanks!
Predictions:
American League Preview:
National League Preview:
2004 Player Rankings:
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Predictions:
American League MVP: Carlos Beltran
American League Cy Young: Tim Hudson
AL Playoffs: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Athletics (WC)
American League Pennant: Oakland Athletics
Dark Horses: Mark Teixeira, Kyle Lohse, Texas Rangers
National League MVP: Todd Helton
National League Cy Young: Mark Prior
NL Playoffs: Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Braves (WC)
National League Pennant: Philadelphia Phillies
Dark Horses: Austin Kearns, Ben Sheets, Cincinnati Reds
AMERICAN LEAGUE PREVIEW
EAST
New York Yankees
The best team that money can buy. They have the best front-line talent in the league, and also the greatest depth. Their defense was wonky last year, but that will be better once they stop dicking around and make A-Rod the shortstop.
Preseason prognosticators are already trying to predict who this year's Florida Marlins will be. I've heard San Diego, Colorado, Cleveland, and yes, even Detroit, named as possibilities. The obvious answer, I think, is that there won't be such a team; odds are one of the favourites will win.
The Yankees defied the odds by winning three straight championships, especially difficult in an era when teams must survive three short playoff series. But now we've had three straight surprise winners, and though I don't know how to calculate the odds, I suspect that it's a trend that won't continue any longer.
CA - Jorge Posada - Posada had his second MVP-calibre season, and now deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Dickey, Berra, Howard and Munson. He is a powerful, patient hitter and a remarkably durable catcher; the writers recognized his fine performance, placing him third in the MVP voting.
Defensively, he cut his errors in half, though he still had too many passed balls. Will turn 33 this year, a dangerous age for catchers. But he really hasn't had a heavy workload; he didn't start catching regularly until he was 29. I expect that he'll be an All-Star.
1B - Jason Giambi - He had an off-year by his own standards, he was still among the best hitters in the league. Giambi struggled with injuries all year; he got things together for one month (June), he had an 1.373 OPS.
Giambi is only 33 years old, but may not age well. A mysterious eye injury he had early in the year probably won't recur; on the other hand, all the other injuries (hand, wrist, knee) probably will. Last year, he looked like he'd been playing softball in a Beer League the past few seasons.
As I write this, there are reports that Giambi has reported to camp much lighter than in past years. I haven't seen him yet; every spring picture I have seen of the Yankees so far features Jeter and that other guy. So I can't say where Giambi lost the weight, and it's impossible to speculate whether he will be better or healthier.
2B - I Don't Know
3B - Derek Jeter - His season got off to an ominous start when his shoulder was dislocated on opening day. But he had a good year with the bat, reversing three years of decline. He was a legitimate MVP in 1999, and could have another year like that; he's only 30.
But he has the range of an oak tree at shortstop. He has to move. He falls down if he takes more than two steps to his left or right. The New York media and Fox have both been in denial mode about Jeter's declining defense, but anyone who watched the 2003 World Series should have been able to see that the Yankees' middle infielders were easily outclassed by the Marlins'. It's almost impossible to believe that the Yankees would acquire a superior defensive shortstop, and keep Jeter at short.
SS - Alex Rodriguez - Compare him to Henry Aaron. Hank had higher batting averages, A-Rod walks more. The other major differences between them have more to do with the eras in which they played. A-Rod hits more home runs, but Aaron would almost certainly hit 50-60 in a season if he played today. Aaron struck out less, but so did everyone.
A-Rod has the advantage of being a shortstop. But then, Aaron was a shortstop when he was young, and was only moved to the outfield because baseball men didn't think power hitters could play short. Aaron played 23 seasons and set a home run record; A-Rod has played 10, but has as a good shot as anyone has ever had at breaking Hank's record.
At this writing, A-Rod is the Yankees' third baseman. I'll be surprised if he isn't playing shortstop on opening day, shocked if he isn't playing short by the All-Star break.
LF - Hideki Matsui - He arrived in New York with lots of hype; and in the month of June, he really did look like Godzilla:
AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLG SB CS
JUNE 104 41 11 0 6 20 29 15 18 394 484 673 0 0
OTHER MONTHS 519 138 31 1 10 62 77 48 68 266 325 387 2 2
Unfortunately, in the other months he looked like Roger Cedeno. A celebrated power hitter in Japan, Matsui spent much of the year hitting ground balls to the second baseman; his ground ball/fly ball ratio was the fourth highest in the league. He needs to make some adjustments to be an elite player.
CF - Kenny Lofton - The Yankees' #8 hitter, though they might bat him leadoff, just because he used to do it well.
RF - Gary Sheffield - Though still dogged by his reputation as an immature, injury-prone player, Sheffield gave his chances for induction into the Hall of Fame a serious shot adrenaline last season with his MVP-quality year. He now has five straight years with at last 135 games played, and an OPS over .900. His career totals include 2009 hits, 379 home runs, and 200 stolen bases.
ADDENDUM: In the past couple of days, he has been dragged into the steroid controversy. His outlook for 2004 hasn't changed, God Knows about his Hall of Fame chances.
DH - Bernie Williams - Williams tore some cartilage in his left knee last May, and may not be able to play the outfield much this season. The Yankees outfield now appears to be Matsui, Lofton and Sheffield. Williams will likely spend the bulk of the year at DH.
I saw the Yankees play the Blue Jays a lot in the 1990's, and was never impressed by Williams as a centre fielder. He made mistakes almost every time I saw him play, often turning the wrong way while chasing a deep fly ball. He didn't appear to move very fast or cover a lot of ground.
But he won Gold Gloves, and had a fine defensive reputation around the league. Bill James has given him an A+ defensive rating, according to the Win Shares system. So maybe I just saw Bernie on bad days, or maybe I simply misjudged him.
In any case, I can now say with confidence that Williams is no longer a good centre fielder, and most everyone agrees with me.
SP - Mike Mussina - Had another good year, but even with the Yankees has yet to have a big 20-win season. Mussina had almost the exact same season that he did in 1997.
1997 15 8 33 33 4 1 0 224.7 197 54 218 3.20 2003 17 8 31 31 2 1 0 214.7 192 40 195 3.40
He's not getting better, not getting worse. His performance from year to year almost never changes.
SP - Javier Vazquez - After a hiccup in 2002, he came back and had his best season. He's a tremendous strikeout pitcher, durable with excellent control. 27 years old, should be just hitting his stride... however the Yankees' infield sorts itself out, Vazquez shouldn't mind much; he mostly gets strikeouts and fly balls. Of course, the Yankees' outfielders aren't exactly fleet of foot, either.
SP - Kevin Brown - Extreme ground ball pitcher, was backed up by a brilliant defensive infield in Los Angeles. A great pitcher, but also a miserable cuss; may destroy the clubhouse if Jeter is playing shortstop.
SP - Jose Contreras - The Yankees are baseball's marquee team, and can pay the most money, but it's still hard to understand why any Cuban or Japanese player would sign with them. Contreras was demoted to the minors after throwing five innings; granted, they were five pretty bad innings, but Roy Halladay's first five innings of the season weren't so hot either. The money and uniform may be nice, but if I'm Contreras, I'm going to want to pitch for a team that will give me more room to breathe.
He came back and finished the year with very good numbers, despite making a trip to the DL with a sore shoulder. He's a good pitcher, will prosper if his shoulder holds up and his team shows any faith in him.
SP - Jon Lieber - I think the Yankees would like him to be healthy, but if he's not I doubt they will care. They'll just get someone else.
RP - Paul Quantrill - I thought that Jays' GM J.P. Ricciardi made a smart deal two years ago when he traded Quantrill (and Cesar Izturis) to the Dodgers for Luke Prokopec. Quantrill was coming off of an 11-2 season, but was turning 33 and didn't figure to age well.
Well, Prokopec didn't work out, and Quantrill... his performance last year in the Dodgers' bullpen was almost as stunning as fellow Canadian Eric Gagne's. Last year was the first year in Quantrill's career that he allowed less than a hit per inning, and it wasn't close; opposing hitters hit .227 against him, 40 points lower than his previous career low.
It was almost certainly a fluke season, plus he'll be 35, and he's trading the airtight Dodger defense for the Yankees' swiss cheese. He should revert to his career norm, and that's still pretty good.
RP - Mariano Rivera - He threw 16 innings in the playoffs, allowing one run on seven hits. Yet he really didn't have an impact on the World Series, pitching a scoreless 9th with a five-run lead in Game Three, then two scoreless innings with a two-run deficit in Game Six.
Meanwhile, the Yankees' bullpen dropped both Games Four and Five, while Rivera sat on the bench. And it was the same in 2002, when Rivera sat on the bench for three straight games while the Yankees' bullpen got their brains beat in by the Angels. I admire Joe Torre a great deal, but his new strategy of not using Rivera until it's too late is puzzling.
Boston Red Sox
See the Phillies comment about Larry Bowa... Grady Little was not fired, obviously, because he left Pedro Martinez in the game too long. No manager gets fired for leaving in the best pitcher in the game... at least, I don't think they do. Red Schoendienst managed the Cardinals for years after leaving Bob Gibson in too long in 1968; Bucky Harris managed three more years in Washington after he went too far with Walter Johnson in 1925.
Anyways, Little was clearly not in favour with management to begin with, and was in a "win or else" situation. Why you would even begin the season with a guy like that, I don't know. If you think you might fire your manager at the end of the season if you don't win the World Series, then you probably have the wrong guy in charge.
The hiring of young Theo Epstein as GM, and then Bill James as a senior consultant, riled up Boston fans who think that sabermetrics is some sort of voodoo cult. They can perhaps rest a little easier, because new manager Terry Francona is not exactly the second coming of Earl Weaver. Or maybe he's a recent convert, I don't know. In Philadelphia, Francona was a frequent target of sabermetricians; he also has one of the worst records of any active manager, bad enough to make Larry Bowa look good. Welcome to Boston, Terry.
CA - Jason Varitek - With the Red Sox scoring oodles of runs early in the season, he decided to join in the fun, and had his best season. He's a switch-hitting catcher who hits doubles and home runs, and will take a walk. With the exception of one injury in 2001, he's been durable the past five seasons.
But he's 32 years old, a danger age for catchers. Varitek hit .230 after the All-Star break. His 2002 season better represents his ability.
1B - Kevin Millar - He had a great start to the year and the music video was fun but on the whole it was an ordinary season, and he didn't do anything in the playoffs. 32 years old, needs to Cowboy Up to avoid being shipped to Japan, for real.
2B - Pokey Reese/Mark Bellhorn - Reese is a spectacular defensive second baseman. He gets hurt and doesn't hit at all, but when he's able to play he will make Derek Lowe look like Addie Joss.
The other guy is Bill Mueller Redux. Bellhorn is a switch-hitter with power and excellent plate discipline, can play second or third base; he comes cheap because he hits for a low average, and is coming off of a poor season. He's a guy a good sabermetrician will always take a chance on.
But he's 30 years old, and he really was awful last year. He still got on base, but his power completely disappeared. Though Bellhorn fits well with the Red Sox' philosophy, they're also in a blood feud with the Yankees, and aren't going to sit and watch if he continues to struggle.
3B - Bill Mueller - He was one of the shrewdest acquistions of last season. He was freakin' awesome at the plate, winning the batting title while also showing surprising power (he had hit 41 home runs in seven seasons before 2003). He loved Fenway Park but hit very well everywhere.
Mueller will be 33 years old. Given that he set a career high in almost everything last season, it seems very likely that his numbers will come back to earth. He's still a better option at third than most teams have.
SS - Nomar Garciaparra - Like Derek Jeter, Garciaparra appears to have peaked as a hitter. In 2000, he hit .372 with a .434 on-base percentage. A reasonable case could have been made at the time that he was the best player in the game. Since than, his highest average is .310, and he has grown less disciplined at the plate.
LF - Manny Ramirez - Ramirez is consistently the best hitter in the American League. Giambi, Delgado and A-Rod have all had big seasons, but Ramirez has been Top Five in the league in OPS for five straight seasons; no other player in the league has done that. (And if you think that is impressive, consider that Barry Bonds has been among the Top Three in OPS 13 of the past 14 seasons; 1999 was his only off-year).
Curious Manny Fact #1: Ramirez walked more often than he struck out, the first time in his career that he has done that.
Curious Manny Fact #2: Manny led the American League in intentional walks, with 28. This, despite being "protected" by MVP-wannabe David Ortiz.
BATTING WITH RUNNERS ON BASE: Ramirez: 14 81 325 462 560 Ortiz : 8 76 286 384 518 BATTING WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION: Ramirez: 9 66 338 512 603 Ortiz : 3 65 273 368 482 BATTING WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION, TWO OUT: Ramirez: 4 26 370 575 704 Ortiz : 3 31 261 370 522
Ortiz hit six home runs in Close & Late games, for which he earned his reputation as an MVP-worthy clutch hitter (Ramirez hit two). Otherwise, Ramirez was far and away Boston's most dangerous hitter with runners on base.
CF - Johnny Damon - He could be the new Willie Davis, who played 18 years, had over 2500 hits and almost 400 stolen bases, but was never an elite player. Damon is headed towards similar numbers. Davis was a better hitter in his 30's, and the Sox hope the same will be true of Damon.
Or maybe he's the new Gregg Jefferies; like Damon, Jefferies peaked at ages 25-26, then stopped hitting. Jefferies had his last full season at age 30.
RF - Trot Nixon - Trot caught a strong case of the Boston fever, mashing the ball all season, and posting a slugging percentage of .650 or better in three different months. He struggled against left-handers, batting just .219 against them, but just killed right-handers. He's a solid, reliable player, and will return to his 2001 level of play.
DH - David Ortiz - Ortiz finally had the season that the Twins were waiting for him to have. Unfortunately, he was wearing a Boston uniform (good for the Red Sox, though). He got off to a slow start, complaining about his lack of playing time in April; he had only four home runs through the end of June, but hit 27 over the final three months.
Even in the year of his life, Ortiz hit just .216 against left-handed pitching; that's about what he does every year. Despite the big numbers, the Red Sox would obviously be better off to sit him against southpaws. The Sox have signed Ellis Burks, presumably to serve that purpose.
SP - Pedro Martinez - The best pitcher in baseball when he is on the mound. And he's done a decent job of staying healthy the past two seasons. Pedro's career ERA is 74% better than league average; that's a record he currently holds. Lefty Grove, at 48%, is second.
SP - Curt Schilling - His ERA was 59% better than average, a career best. He struck out over 10 batters per game for the third year in a row, and had a strikeout/walk ratio of better than 6-to-1 for the third straight year. He had a losing record but that was his team's fault; he suffered two injuries but they were both flukes that aren't likely to recur (unless he has two appendixes). He will be 37 but there is no evidence that he is about to decline.
SP - Derek Lowe - He won 17 games but didn't pitch all that well. His decline in strikeouts is alarming, as was his loss of control. Needs Pokey Reese to stay healthy.
SP - Tim Wakefield - Fine, versatile, dependable knuckleballer. Will be 37 years old but his career still has legs.
SP - Byung-Hyun Kim - He had a lost season. He got his wish and began the year in Arizona's starting rotation, pitched well but was 1-5 because the DBacks didn't support any of their starters. Kim was traded to Boston and moved back to the bullpen, and pitched well, but completely disappeared in the postseason after blowing a save and giving some fans the finger.
Despite all the trouble he often pitched brilliantly when he was on the mound. In the leadup to the 2004 Yankee/Sox battle, he is a real wild card who often gets overlooked. He could win 20 games or disappear in spring training and never be heard from again.
RP - Mike Timlin - A much-maligned pitcher, but he was very good last year and was unhittable in the playoffs. An outstanding middle reliever, and a better pitcher now than he has ever been.
RP - Keith Foulke - The controversy over Boston's "bullpen-by-committee" experiment is an impossible one. It was, admittedly, a failure; the Sox had the third-worst bullpen ERA in the league (4.87). On the other hand, the Red Sox still had a great year; their best month was April (18-8) when the bullpen seemed to be hopeless. They also had a better record in one-run games (26-16) and extra-inning games (11-5) than the Rivera-led Yankees (22-14) and (6-6).
The point isn't that their bullpen was good; it's that, for all the hand-wringing before and during the season, it didn't matter. Foulke will make Bostonians happier, and theoretically makes the Sox better, though I'm not sure by how much.
Toronto Blue Jays
There is good news and bad news for the Blue Jays this season. The good news is that four teams in the American League will make the playoffs this year, and that there is a solid chance - maybe 50/50 - that the Jays will be one of the top four teams in the league.
Unfortunately, that won't be good enough. They will have to be in the top three, maybe top two to make the postseason. They have to beat one of New York or Boston, two teams that are spending every resource they have to win this season.
Their lineup and pitching staff are pretty much set, and though they are good they don't compare well on paper to New York and Boston. The Jays' best chance to compete this season may rest with four young players, none of whom are likely to be with the big club in April. Two outfielders, Alexis Rios and Greg Gross, a pitcher, Dustin McGowan, and a catcher, Guillermo Quiroz, all had terrific seasons at AA New Haven last year.
They are all good, maybe very good, young prospects, and at least one of them should be able to make an impact by midseason. Given that the Jays happen to have question marks in their outfield, their starting rotation and at catcher, the opportunity exists to upgrade these positions from within.
CA - Greg Myers - He returned to the town where he began his career, and at age 37 had a ridiculously good season. He set a career high in almost everything, and gave the Blue Jays far greater production behind the plate than they had any right to expect.
At midseason, Myers was batting .343 with 10 home runs, and was a serious threat to make the All-Star team. He had a .500 on-base percentage in 63 at bats in June. After the break, the fun came to an end, as Myers posted a .698 OPS, close to his career average.
The season was a fluke, of course, and he'll be 38 years old. Myers won't provide the same production this year, but then, no one is expecting him to. He's an awful defensive catcher; he had the lowest fielding percentage among regular catchers, and also by far the worst rate of throwing out runners.
Myers will share playing time with young Kevin Cash, who has an excellent defensive reputation but can't hit. This position will likely be a problem for the Blue Jays in 2004.
1B - Carlos Delgado - The perception here in Toronto was that, after a pair of disappointing seasons, Delgado had a big year. He was better, but not by much; his "improvement" was more perceived than real (his OPS was only seven percent better than in 2002). He won't likely drive in 140 runs again; he hit .357 with runners in scoring position, and that's tough to repeat. But I expect that he will be back among the best hitters in the league. Any decline in his numbers will, again, be more perceived than real.
2B - Orlando Hudson - Hudson's first full season was OK. He hit .282 before the break, but then struggled in the second half. He has the potential to do better; Hudson was a fine hitter in the minor leagues, and is only 26 years old. He may be forced to quit switch-hitting next season; he hit .297 as a left-handed batter, but only .160 right-handed. He looked good in the field, and had good defensive stats as well.
3B - Eric Hinske - He had a strange sophomore season. He had no power early in the year, and was eventually diagnosed with a broken hand that put him on the DL. When he came back he played a little better, but never really got on track. His homers were way down, but he almost hit as many doubles (45) as singles (49). His performance against left-handers (.256 average, 18 doubles) was vastly better than in 2002.
Hinske will have better seasons at the plate; he'll hit 25 home runs this year. But I am more concerned about his defense, which was really, really awful. The Blue Jays have given him two full years at third base, and it's not working; I think they will give him another chance and cross their fingers, but if he doesn't improve then they will have to try something else.
Carlos Delgado is in the last year of his contract; if Delgado leaves, then Hinske might have to move to first base or DH.
SS - Chris Woodward - The Jays have two shortstops, Woodward and Chris Gomez. The latter is a veteran and a known quantity; Woodward is five years younger, and has greater upside.
Woodward won a battle with Felipe Lopez for the Jays' shortstop job in the summer of 2002. Dumping Lopez appears to be a good decision... but Woodward didn't impress anyone, either. He was supposed to hit 15-20 homers, but instead hit seven.
More disappointing was his defense. Woodward didn't look nearly as good as he did in 2002, and was outclassed by backup Mike Bordick (though to be fair, Woodward and Bordick had nearly identical defensive statistics, so maybe the reality wasn't as bad as the perception). Late in the season, I attended a game at SkyDome where the Orioles hit six or seven balls through the left side, and Woodward was booed mercilessly.
I was watching the Blue Jays on television late in the year, when Woodward's wife was a guest in the broadcast booth. She was asked about Chris' season... and was surprisingly candid. She said that they both knew that he was struggling, and were trying to figure out why. She was quite blunt about his need to get his act together.
After the season, almost everyone (fans, media, management) listed shortstop as a spot that the Jays needed to upgrade. Well, they couldn't sign Miguel Tejada, and their other options were limited.
A good sabermetric GM would look for an inexpensive, underrated two-way player, whose value was at a low point. The Jays looked around, and the guy who best fit that description was already on their roster. So Woodward will get another chance, and it's a good idea. He does have some upside, and hopefully he'll be in better shape mentally for this season. If not, Chris Gomez is an OK backup.
LF - Frank Catalanotto - Had he not had a horrible slump in July (9-for-62) he would have been a great bargain; as it was, Catalanotto did about what was expected of him. He's a career .297 hitter with line-drive power; his on-base percentage was solid but a little disappointing (eight points below his career average). He's a good fit in the Jays' lineup; it would of great help if he can raise his on-base percentage 20 points, as he has done in the past, and set the table for the sluggers.
CF - Vernon Wells - He kicked the snot out of my conservative assessment of him last year. He was good the first half of the season, and the second half played like an MVP candidate. At age 25, it appears that he is going to be an extra-base-hit machine for the next decade.
Wells needs better plate discipline, but given his age, it would be hard for me to argue that he's not going to continue to improve.
RF - Reed Johnson - He was nowhere in the Blue Jays plans at the beginning of last season, but ended up getting over 400 at bats in the outfield. He made a great impression in May and June, struggled badly in July and August but finished with a .363 average in September. He has modest power, doesn't take many walks but gets hit by a huge number of pitches.
His 2002 season was lost to injuries. In 2001, he played well at AA, at age 24; he has moved slowly through the Jays' system. He's better suited as a fourth outfielder, but will get a chance to prove otherwise before the Jays' formidable outfield prospects are ready.
DH - Josh Phelps - Big, strong right-hander, hits the ball a mile when he makes contact. After a terrific minor league career, and a great second half of 2002, he was expected to have a big season, but it didn't quite happen. He had two great months (June, August) but was mediocre the rest of the year. Injuries in July also didn't help.
Phelps needs to find some consistency, and he also needs to show more patience at the plate; I think he will do it. I expect him to develop much like Richie Sexson has in Milwaukee. It will be a surprise if he doesn't hit 30 homers this year.
It would also help if he could find a position. How many 24-year-old DH's have good careers? Even Edgar Martinez didn't begin to DH regularly until he was 30. But the Blue Jays have officially given up on him as a catcher, so he'll be the DH as long as Carlos Delgado is still in town.
SP - Roy Halladay - 27 years old, has just completed 2 1/2 brilliant seasons. Improves his strikeout/ratio every year, has become more of a ground ball pitcher and so far his arm has been indestructible. He gave up 26 home runs last year, which was probably bad luck. There is no reason to think that he won't be back among the best pitchers in the league in 2004.
SP - Miguel Batista - Interesting guy, good pitcher. Would be a fine #2 pitcher on about 23 or 24 teams, all except the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Athletics, Astros, maybe a couple of others. Jays need him or someone else to step up heroically and win 16 games, in addition to whatever Halladay wins.
SP - Ted Lilly - For some reason, I know the middle names of many great players of the past. Off the top of my head... William Howard Mays, George Herman Ruth, Walter Perry Johnson, Denton True Young, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Robert Moses Grove, Henry Louis Gehrig, Henry Louis Aaron, Mickey Charles Mantle, Peter Edward Rose, Tyrus Raymond Cobb, Jack Roosevelt Robinson, Adrian Constantine Anson, Lawrence Peter Berra, Theodore Samuel Williams, Reginald Martinez Jackson... and I could name a few others.
I know those names mostly from reading historical baseball books. You don't hear today's players get called by their full names anymore; the only active players I know are Barry Lamarr Bonds and Theodore Roosevelt Lilly.
SP - Pat Hentgen - Former Cy Young winner, now looks like a slim Goose Gossage. Hentgen returned from injury and pitched real well for three months. Pat is popular in Toronto, and I hope he does well, but Jays fans shouldn't get their hopes up. The $2.2 million he is getting paid this year is too much for a guy who is a longshot to reach double digits in wins.
SP - Josh Towers - Obviously, he had Lady Luck on his side, posting an 8-1 record with Toronto. On the other hand, he appears to have actually learned how to strike batters out, and that's promising.
RP - Terry Adams - He had the best ERA of his career, but was expunged from Philadelphia anyways. The Jays aren't complaining; Adams is a solid middle reliever with closing experience, just what they need.
Baltimore Orioles
The Oreos, stuck in fourth place in their division for the past six years, decided to open their wallets this offseason. As is typical of a team that has decided it is going to spend no matter what, they spent more money on suspects then on solid players. Tejada, undoubtedly, is a strong addition; but they gave $22.5 million to Javy Lopez, who is coming off of a great season but is also a 33-year-old catcher who had never played that well in the past.
And then they handed out another 3-year, $22.5 million deal, this time to pitcher Sidney Ponson. Sir Sidney had a decent year, but again has no consistent history of success, and he's out of shape. And they gave $4.5 million to a 39-year-old first baseman. In the meantime, their #2 pitcher (Jason Johnson) is gone, and their #3 pitcher (Pat Hentgen) is in Toronto, and they haven't been replaced.
Spending gobs of money on Lopez and Palmeiro only makes sense if the Orioles think they can overtake the Blue Jays. But while the Jays are building around Wells and Halladay, the Orioles don't have any marquee young players to build around. To compete, they are going to need a Loaiza-type miracle in their starting rotation.
CA - Javier Lopez - Lopez had the greatest contract season that any player has ever had. After several years of decline, and faced with the real possibility of becoming a free agent and not finding any interested takers, Lopez went out and had one of the most explosive seasons with the bat that any catcher has ever had. The standard explanation for his year is that he lost weight.
1B - Rafael Palmeiro - Good news: 1994 (the strike season) was the last year that Palmeiro had fewer than 38 home runs in a season. Bad news: 40 years old, bat is slowing; his batting average has fallen four straight seasons. Though Camden Yards has a reputation as a hitter's park, it's not nearly as batter-friendly as the Ballpark in Arlington.
2B - Jerry Hairston - Was having his best season until he fractured his foot in May. Hairston is a good defensive player who does a decent job of getting on base; an average second baseman.
3B - Melvin Mora - At age 31 he had three amazing months. Mora was great in April, great again in May, and kept it going with another great month in June. Then he hurt his hand, struggled in July, went on the DL in August and tore his medial collateral ligament in his left knee in September.
Mora is easy to root for. He did not reach the majors until he was 27; but his combination of walks, a bit of power, and fine defense both in the infield and outfield made him a valuable player. Last year, he did all of that, and spiked his numbers with a .317 batting average. It's almost impossible to imagine that he will hit this well again, but if he can just hit .275 then he will be good.
Curiously, his sudden improvement with the bat occured about the same time that he fathered quintuplets. One more reason to root for him.
SS - Miguel Tejada - He is a rare breed, a power hitter who drives in runs and plays an excellent shortstop. Last year, he had a horrible April in which he hit .161, but hit over .300 the rest of the year. He hasn't missed a game since 2000, which makes him a good fit in Baltimore.
LF - Larry Bigbie - After struggling for most of his minor-league career, he has started to hit a bit the past two seasons. A bit.
CF - Luis Matos - He made his debut with the Orioles in 2000, at age 21; he spent most of the next two years in the minors, and began last year at Triple-A. Called up in May, Matos made the most of the opportunity, batting .500 over his first 34 at bats.
He's a solid young player, won't be a star but will hit over .280 with 20 home runs.
RF - Jay Gibbons - One of the best bargains in the game, Gibbons gave the Orioles his second good season while making $375,000. Presumably, he has a raise in his future. Will likely have a 35-homer season, this year or next.
DH - Jack Cust - Perhaps the worst baserunner in the history of baseball, but he can hit if they give him the chance.
SP - Sidney Ponson - He had the year of his life, and it wasn't terribly impressive. An OK pitcher, only 27 years old but he isn't going to get better.
SP - Rodrigo Lopez - Pitched well for the first half of 2002, but since the summer of that year has been really awful.
SP - Kurt Ainsworth - Terrific young pitcher whose season was ruined by shoulder problems.
SP - Eric DuBose - He was terrific in 19 starts at Ottawa, then was even better in ten starts with the Orioles. 28 years old, has been hurt for most of his career.
RP - Jorge Julio - In his second year as closer, he was just mediocre; he saved 36 games but also had some bad outings. Throws in the upper 90's, but doesn't have good control and doesn't get a big number of strikeouts. To survive as a closer he needs either better control or a better strikeout pitch.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
I don't think I have ever seen or heard so much enthusiasm over such a sorry collection of players. Lou Piniella keeps insisting that the Rays will avoid last place, and the media are lapping it up; if Lou says it's so, then it must be so.
The Rays' roster is exactly the same as it is every year. They have one good hitter (Huff), they have Baldelli, who might be real good one day but not in 2004. I like Danys Baez but I don't think he's Goose Gossage. And that's it; the other 22 guys are a bunch of stiffs.
They have three left-handed first basemen, none of whom are good. Tino Martinez was finished two years ago, Fred McGriff bought the farm last year and we're still waiting for Psycho Rob Fick to justify his career. Their pitching is horrible. An excellent bet to lose at least 95 games again, despite what Lou says.
CA - Toby Hall - Very similar to his predecessor, John Flaherty, and that's kind of depressing.
1B - Tino Martinez - There's not a large market for 36-year-old first basemen who don't hit for average or power, and don't drive in runs. Tampa Bay is one of those markets. Though he's near the end, Tino did a decent job of getting on base in 2003, and hits the occasional home run.
2B - Rey Sanchez - Great defensive shortstop, just an awful hitter. 36 years old; the Rays will be his ninth team.
3B - Geoff Blum - All year he was The Guy who Took Bats Away from Morgan Ensberg. A bad hitter who is now where he belongs; the worst he can do is to take bats away from Damian Rolls.
SS - Julio Lugo - Had a bad start to the season; hit zero homers in an Astros uniform and was charged with assaulting his wife. Things got better; he hit 15 homers with the Rays and was acquitted. 28 years old, not great but a heck of a better option for the Rays than Rey Ordonez.
LF - Carl Crawford - Crawford answered a couple of questions about his abilities. One, he hit for a good average. Two, he established that he is an excellent base stealer. He is only 22 years old, and has to be considered a cornerstone of the Devil Rays' future.
He still has a ways to go. Right now, he's Vince Coleman, with fewer walks and half as many steals. He needs to learn the strike zone; he should learn from Juan Pierre that the more times he makes contact, the more likely that something good will happen. He's very young and has time to improve, probably in small increments; I wouldn't expect a breakout season.
CF - Rocco Baldelli - Only 22 years old, has speed, can hit to all fields, has a little power and will develop more. Was overhyped early in the season; he has talent, but has a long way to go before he's a legitimate All-Star.
RF - Jose Cruz - Every year, Cruz does something well. Some years he hits home runs, other years he draws some walks or steals some bases. Last year he won a Gold Glove. Unfortunately, it has become clear that he is incapable of doing several of these things in the same season.
DH - Aubrey Huff - That wasn't too painful, was it? For years, the Devil Rays fought to keep Huff out of the starting lineup. They finally relented, and had to endure a .311 average and 84 extra-base hits. They also had to open the coffers and pay him a whopping $325,000.
SP - Jeremi Gonzalez - A great comeback story, though you didn't hear much about him. Gonzalez won 11 games with the Cubs in his rookie year in 1997, age 22. He got hurt a year later, and did not pitch in the majors from 1999-2002.
Last year he came back, and was good. He was 6-11, but don't let that record fool you; The Rays just played like crap when he was on the mound.
SP - Victor Zambrano - Led the league in walks (106), wild pitches (15) and hit batsmen (20). Has some nasty stuff, and if he had worse control and a better strikeout pitch he could be fun like Bobby Witt, but for now he's just mediocre and is aging fast.
Late in the season, the Blue Jays Roy Halladay was going for his 22nd win, and was thrown out of the game because he hit one of the Devil Rays' players. Apparently, a warning had been delivered before the game by the umpires, though Halladay claimed not to have known about it.
I went to the SkyDome the next night. Zambrano, pitching for the Rays, drilled two Blue Jays, but stayed in the game. Tanyon Sturtz then hit a Devil Ray, and was tossed. The fans, as you might expect, were not impressed.
The umpires' thinking was that, because Zambrano is so damn wild, he would be given some leeway. Of course, this put the Blue Jays in a difficult position, because the opposing pitcher was allowed to hit their batters without any repercussions, while their pitchers were tossed if they hit any of the Rays.
That's an extreme example of bad umpiring, but it is one more reason why intent really should be taken out of the equation when it comes to hit batsmen.
SP - Jorge Sosa - Throws in the upper 90's, but has poor control and doesn't have a strikeout pitch. He mixes in well with the other Rays, which is kind of depressing.
SP - Mark Hendrickson - Is Randy Johnson's size, but has Randy Jones' arm. And Randy Jones is 54 years old. He's being given a break because he's come a long way from the NBA, but he has to show something, either fewer walks or more strikeouts or fewer homers.
SP - Damian Moss - A lefty who walks more batters than he strikes out.
RP - Jesus Colome - He recovered from a traumatic offseason car crash and had a good year. Throws in the upper 90's, control is poor but not hopeless. A good arm who is slowly morphing into a good pitcher.
RP - Lance Carter - After years of struggling with injuries, he stayed healthy and had a decent season as the Rays' closer, even earning a trip to the All-Star Game. He's an even better pitcher than he looked last year, if he's healthy.
RP - Danys Baez - He blew a bunch of saves and lost a bunch of games... but everything else was good. Those blown saves are/were the Indians' problem; he was a nice pickup by the Rays, and gives them a real chance to have a decent bullpen. Not that it will matter, but it's better than nothing.
CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox led the AL with 95 wins in 2000, and had as good a collection of young pitchers as any team in baseball. Kenny Williams took over as GM, and I think it is fair to say that the past three years have been a huge disappointment. The Sox have been unable to return to the playoffs, despite playing in the worst division in baseball.
Manager Jerry Manuel is gone. Williams and/or Reinsdorf had the option of hiring two time World Champion Cito Gaston, but instead chose inexperienced Ozzie Guillen. I don't know if Gaston was the better choice, but again, it's fair to point out that he has won the same number of championships as the White Sox have since 1901.
Williams has made some awful trades, most notably the Todd Ritchie and Billy Koch deals. The Colon deal worked out, though Williams' midseason trades fizzled. Getting Esteban Loaiza was more likely a stroke of luck than a stroke of genius. I think that the White Sox have the most talent in the Central, and I think they will win; if they don't, then it really will be time for the Ken Williams era to come to an end.
CA - Miguel Olivo - He is the White Sox' catcher of the near future. Like most of the Sox last year, he struggled in the first half, then hit better in the second half. He skipped Triple-A, so he should play better after last season's initiation. His backup, Sandy Alomar, is old and has had a bunch of knee operations.
Olivo did not hit well last year, and his K/BB ratio suggests that he won't get too much better. He'll be 26 years old, so there's not a lot of growth potential. Alomar, bad knees and all, is still a better hitter. Defensively, Olivo commits too many errors (9) and passed balls (8).
1B - Paul Konerko - His OPS' the past five seasons: .862, .844, .856, .857, .704. Given that he is only 28 years old, it's a good bet that last year's disaster was a fluke, and that he'll have an OPS in the .850 range again this season. He had an OPS of .853 after the All-Star break, following his horrendous first half.
2B - Willie Harris - Speedy second baseman who has been waiting in the wings the past three years, is now 26 years old. A left-handed batter, he needs to take full advantage of his speed to beat out hits.
3B - Joe Crede - A young hitter with power. Last season, he survived a horrendous first half of the season, then caught fire, batting .308 after the break with a .543 slugging perccentage. He could be the next Bob Horner.
But it's taking Crede forever to get his career started. Has shown minimal lack of command of the strike zone; at the moment, he looks more like Butch Hobson than a star.
SS - Jose Valentin - An underrated player, provides both good offense and defense.
LF - Carlos Lee - The first half of the season, Lee was his usual moderately impressive self, batting .262 with 14 homers. Like many of the White Sox hitters, he caught fire after the break, hitting .325 with 14 homers. It was his best season to date.
Lee can't make up his mind whether he's a free swinger or a patient type. Last year he drew fewer walks, but picked up more hits and homers (after dramatically increasing his walk total — and adding a few homers — the year before). He also decided that he is a base stealer, after remaining anchored to first base in 2002.
CF - Aaron Rowand - I think I have pencilled in Rowand as the White Sox' centre fielder for three years in a row, but it hasn't happened yet. Last year they picked up Carl Everett, the year before that Kenny Lofton. Last I checked, the Sox don't have a veteran centre fielder, so maybe Rowand will get a real shot. 26 years old, no star potential but he can hit 20 home runs.
RF - Magglio Ordoñez - He was my preseason pick to win the AL MVP. It didn't work out, but his season was nothing to be ashamed of. A .317 batting average, good OBA, 78 extra-base hits, 99 RBI... Ordoñez was one of the few White Sox who delivered early in the season while the rest of the lineup slumbered.
DH - Frank Thomas - Thomas had great numbers against left-handed pitching, struggled against right-handers (.249 average) but still hit the ball a long way when he made contact. Fortunately, there were still enough hanging sliders floating around in 2003 for him to mash.
SP - Esteban Loaiza - He had an unbelievably great season. Apart from the fact the he is Esteban F. Loaiza, there is no obvious reason why won't continue to pitch well.
SP - Mark Buehrle - On June 11, he was 2-10 with a 5.18 ERA. He got better after that. Buehrle is one of the better young pitchers in the game, has won 49 games over three seasons. He won't last much past age 30, but for now is pretty good.
SP - Jon Garland - He's had three decent seasons in a row, and he's only 24, but unless he develops a strikeout pitch he will be out of the league in a couple of years.
SP - Danny Wright - He's really awful.
SP - Neal Cotts - A young pitcher who was overpowering at AA Birmingham, skipped a level and struggled in four starts with the Sox. Should be the fifth starter in the spring.
RP - Damaso Marte - He held left-handers to a .168 average. Right-handers fared a little better, batting .199. It's almost impossible to believe that Ken Williams didn't think that either Foulke or Marte was good enough to be his closer in 2003.
Minnesota Twins
When the Twins were competitive in 2001, it was a great story, especially since they were rumoured to be on the contraction list. When they made the playoffs and won a round in 2002, it was another great story.
Last year, they had a rough start to the year, but recovered and won another division title. I guess it was another good story... but I think there are about a dozen cities around the league where the fans are getting a little tired of this. The Twinkies are a decent team, but they do take advantage of playing in a horrible division (they were 16-3 against the Tigers last year). If the AL Central isn't going to improve, then perhaps we can start an "annual realignment", give every middle-market team a chance to complete against the dregs of the AL.
The Twins didn't have such a good offseason. They replaced their best two relievers, Guardado and Hawkins, with Joe Nathan and Carlos Silva, and that's not an upgrade. They also lost three starting pitchers (Rogers, Reed, Milton) and traded their all-star catcher. The best thing you can say about the Twins, apart from the division they play in, is that they will get a full year of Johan Santana in the rotation, and that the best prospect in baseball has finished baking and is ready to play.
CA - Joe Mauer - A super-prospect. The Twins traded an All-Star so he could play. 21 years old, last year hit .339 at two levels and won defensive accolades as well.
1B - Doug Mientkiewicz - Mientkiewicz has played real well two of the past three seasons. He does a solid Keith Hernandez impression, playing great defense, getting on base and hitting doubles. But he hasn't been able to put together a string of good seasons. At age 30, he's only had two good ones in his career.
2B - Luis Rivas - Rivas hit into 20 double plays last season. He's only 24 years, and has some skills, but he's going to have to make some big improvements to offset all of those double plays. I don't think he'll make it.
3B - Corey Koskie - Now, if the Oakland Athletics were really serious about the whole Moneyball thing, they would stop wasting time with Terrence Long and Scott Hatteberg and get guys like Koskie. Corey had his best season, hitting for average and power and getting on base, and was one of the Twins' best players.
He did have a couple of noticeable splits in his record. One, he struggled against left-handers, batting .224 with three homers off them. He doesn't hit lefties well, but he usually does better than that. Fortunately, he just killed right-handers, batting .331 with a .440 on-base percentage.
Also, all 14 of Koskie's home runs were hit before the All-Star break. He had an awesome June in which he hit .408 with five homers, then went on the disabled list with a back injury. In September he broke a bone in his hand, but kept playing. Though the injuries robbed him of his power, he was still productive, posting a .400 on-base percentage the last two months of the season.
He's a fine player, but at age 30 has peaked.
SS - Cristian Guzman - He had a lousy season. It appears that Guzman has plateaued as a hitter, and that this is as good as it gets. But the Twins have won two division titles with him at short, and aren't going to make a change.
Guzman had a funky September, missing several games with a bad back, yet still batting .303 with all three of his home runs and a third of his RBI in that month. In the first game of the playoffs, he pulled off one of the craziest baserunning stunts you will see in the postseason, going first-to-third on a single to short left field.
LF - Jacques Jones - The Perfect Cub. If Dusty Baker liked Randall Simon, he must go to bed at night dreaming of Jacques Jones. Will surely be traded to the Windy City by August.
CF - Torii Hunter - He is a solid player, a .260 hitter who hits a few homers and plays terrific defense. Hunter also drew a few more walks last year, which is a good thing. Last year was perceived as a disappointment because he played at his real level of ability; he had almost the same numbers that he had in 2001, and very closely matched his career averages (he has a career OPS of .772, last year's was .763). His 2002 season was a fluke; it sticks out like a sore thumb in his record.
RF - Shannon Stewart - Stewart is among the most consistent players in baseball. He played just as well last year, no better, than he did the previous two years. His performance last year with the Twins (.322 average, .854 OPS) was only about 5% better than his career numbers (.303 average, .817 OPS). The fact that he became an MVP candidate was... curious.
He has the worst throwing arm of any left fielder in the league. So it goes without saying that he has the worst arm of any right fielder as well.
DH - Matt LeCroy/Mike Cuddyer/Mike Restovich - Three guys who can hit, but there's no room for them to play. In the past ten months, both the Dodgers and Rockies have acquired Jeromy Burnitz, while Cuddyer and Restovich rot in the minors. What's wrong with this picture?
SP - Johan Santana - I still can't believe that Ron Gardenhire was runner-up in the Manager of the Year voting. Santana, who is a brilliant young pitcher (but 24 years old, so not that young; he's older than Mark Prior or C.C. Sabathia), did not become a regular starter until July. Keeping him in the bullpen the first half of the season was the single most boneheaded, inexplicable, self-destructive decision made by any manager last year.
Had the Twins played in any other division but the AL Crapola, they would have missed the playoffs. What now, is Joe Mauer going to stay on the bench until he's 25?
SP - Brad Radke - Had an awful first half, then went 9-1 in the second half, a big reason why the Twins were able to recover and win the division. At this point in his career he survives by not walking anybody, and I'm honestly not sure how much longer he can do that.
SP - Kyle Lohse - He had a terrific May (1.97 ERA) but an awful July (11.51 ERA); the rest of the year was a mixed bag. Only 25 years old, throws hard and has improved his control. He's good for 12-15 wins, needs to develop a strikeout pitch to have any long-term success.
SP - Joe Mays - He has fallen and can't get up. A terrific pitcher two years ago, but all done.
SP - Rick Helling - Made 24 starts with the Orioles, most of them really bad, then pitched brilliantly for a month in the Marlins' bullpen (yes, it was that kind of year in Florida). He's finished as a quality starter, may survive in long relief.
RP - Carlos Silva - Twelve wild pitches?
If Helling is a disaster, then Silva may got a shot in the starting rotation. His chances of success appear to be limited. He doesn't have a strikeout pitch, though he does have a "where the hell was that going?" pitch.
RP - Joe Nathan - He began the year with 22 consecutive scoreless innings, then went into a bad slump for a month but was almost unhittable in the second half. It was a marvelous comeback season for a pitcher recovering from shoulder surgery.
The Twins are expecting him to be their closer this year. He has the stuff; good health is his biggest concern.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals were the feel-good story of last year, improving by 21 games and posting their first winning record since 1993. Looking ahead, however, they have some problems:
1) Teams that make big improvements one year usually take a step back the next.
2) Their Pythagorean W-L record was 78-84 (836 runs scored, 867 runs allowed), and that's closer to their real level of ability.
3) They were the only team in baseball to hit .300 with runners on base. They were the only team in baseball to hit .300 with runners in scoring position. That's great, but it's almost impossible to do two years in a row.
No one should be shocked if the Royals fall back to 70-75 wins. And if that happens, expect Carlos Beltran to be traded sometime in the summer.
On the good side, they still play in a terrible division. They've got good young talent, notably Angel Berroa and Jeremy Affeldt. I don't think they will have a winning record in 2004, but their future looks more promising than it has in awhile.
CA - Benito Santiago - He is still in good shape, can catch well and still hit. He's moving from a lousy hitter's park to the best in the American League. Santiago is also a 39-year-old catcher. His playing time has fallen the past two seasons, and isn't going back up.
1B - Mike Sweeney - After playing in 159 games in 2000, his playing time has dropped for three straight seasons. He usually has great starts to the season, then gets hurt; last year, he was batting .321 with 50 RBI in June when a back injury put him out of the lineup for several weeks. When he returned, he hit just .260 with limited power.
2B - Desi Relaford - He won the Royals' second base job without really having to do anything. A .260 hitter who doesn't offer much else at the plate. He's versatile in the field but not a very good defender.
3B - Joe Randa - Missed time in July with a strained left oblique, otherwise was having his best season in three years. Strikingly similar to a former Kansas City third baseman... that would be Kevin Seitzer, not George Brett.
SS - Angel Berroa - The Rookie of the Year had a dreamy season, playing in almost every game, hitting for a decent average and good power, running the bases well and playing very good defense. He was the single biggest reason for the Royals' improvement last year.
Kauffman Stadium was the best hitter's park in the league last season. The Royals are moving the fences out; it's possible that Berroa could play just as well as he did last year, and suffer a drop in his production.
LF - Juan Gonzalez - He's struggled terribly with injuries the past two seasons, but I still think he'll help the Royals. He's a two-time MVP, and they're only paying him $4.5 million. He's 34 years old, but they only signed him for one season. He's a hell of an improvement over Ken Harvey. Even if Gonzalez only plays 80 games, it's a good deal for Kansas City.
CF - Carlos Beltran - The first month of the season was a write-off for Beltran, who spent the first three weeks of the season on the disabled list with a strained muscle. The rest of the year he played magnificent, MVP-quality ball, the best of his career. He is an excellent hitter, a superb fielder, and the best base stealer in the game.
RF - Aaron Guiel - At age 30, he started the year in the minors, but got a chance to play and made the most of it.
DH - Ken Harvey/Matt Stairs - After three seasons of decline, Stairs went nuts during the summer, posting a slugging percentage over .800 in both June and July. He's a pretty good power hitter, but likely won't hit over .250 again; he gives the Royals a much-needed alternative to Harvey, who really struggled.
SP - Brian Anderson - Had a nice, surprising season, but don't expect a repeat. His strikeout rate is dangerously low (3.96 K/9), and he doesn't get enough ground balls to compensate.
SP - Darrell May - He gave the Royals the best 32 starts of his life. A lefty who doesn't strike people out, gives up lots of home runs, will be 32 years old. Another reason to expect a Royals setback in 2004.
RP - Mike MacDougal - Was the Next Great Closer for about three weeks before things started to fall apart. Will be getting chances to regain the closer's role for the next ten years.
RP - Jeremy Affeldt - A young pitcher with superior stuff, the Royals have had trouble deciding whether or not he should be a starter or reliever. For now, it appears that he be in the bullpen.
Cleveland Indians
I can't think of anything to write about the Indians. The essential facts are:
1) They're a bad team
2) They're rebuilding, but they're not really close to being finished
3) They don't have to be good to win
The White Sox, Twins and Royals all appear to be worse, while the Tigers appear to be better, and the Indians are stuck in neutral. I don't know if they are the best or worst team in this division.
CA - Victor Martinez - A young switch-hitting catcher who has been a monster in the minor leagues, and has hit .288 in 200 major league at bats. There's really nothing not to like about him.
1B - Ben Broussard - He and Travis Hafner are both the same age, are left-handed, play the same position, have the same skills and are fighting for playing time. Broussard showed some good power, but his season was ruined by a .175 average against left-handers. He won't get too much better than he is now but has a future in a platoon role.
2B - Ron Belliard/Brandon Phillips - Phillips was touted as a leading candidate to be the Rookie of the Year, but had a horrible season. He was demoted to the minors, and played even worse. His future with the Indians is unclear.
Belliard is the veteran who will get playing time if Phillips can't cut it. Belliard is terrible - I've liked him in the past but it is time to face facts. I don't know if Phillips can recover from his rookie disaster, but he has talent; the Indians have nothing to gain by playing Belliard, nothing to lose by playing Phillips.
3B - Casey Blake - Had his first full season at age 29 (after appearing in only 49 games since 1999). He was OK but has no future as a regular.
SS - Omar Vizquel - Was traded to the Mariners, but failed a physical. 37 years old. Toast.
LF - Ryan Ludwick - A young hitter with some power, he replaced Karim Garcia on the Indians' roster, and is the same type of player.
CF - Milton Bradley - An enigmatic young player who had an enigmatic season. On the good side, he played unbelievably great when he was in the lineup. He did everything well, especially hitting for average and getting on base. He played far better than he had in any other year, and far better than I ever expected him to play. The folks who labeled him as a hot prospect, years ago in the Expos system, should stand up and take a bow. At age 26, he appears primed for stardom.
the bad side, Bradley missed 60 games with injury, including a strained hamstring in April, a strained lower abdomen, and a back injury during the summer (lower lumbar contusion). In late August, he was charged with a misdemeanour when he allegedly drove off when a police officer tried to give him a speeding ticket. He plead not guilty, then changed his mind, plead guilty and served three days in jail.
As good as he is, would you want him on your team? There are many reports that suggest that he is a miserable person to try to get along with. That may be unfair, but he seems to fit the profile of a player with talent whose career will be hobbled by injuries and insubordination. Albert Belle was a jerk, but he never missed a game. Dick Allen was a jerk and had injuries, but could also be charming when he wanted to be, and had teammates who adored him.
Bradley... well, you don't hear too many people saying positive things about him. If he can't stay healthy and can't get along with people and can't stay out of trouble with the law, then he'll have to play as well as he did in 2003, every year, to be worth the trouble.
RF - Jody Gerut - He had no power in the minors, then last year had 57 extra-base hits as a rookie with the Indians. I have no idea what he will do in the future.
DH - Travis Hafner - He struggled with injuries the first half of the year, but hit well in the second half. It was a decent rookie year. Hafner was an old rookie (26) and needs to get his career moving. He can hit 30 homers in a season.
SP - C.C. Sabathia - He's 23 years old, and has already won 43 games in his career. His control keeps improving, and last year was the best ERA of his career. He's huge and heavy, but has stayed relatively healthy. Sabathia is one of the hardest throwers in the league; he's already a good pitcher, he just needs to improve a little bit, and increase his workload another 30 innings.
SP - Jason Davis - He was rushed to the majors, and pitched well for four months until "tendinitis" effectively ended his season with six weeks to go. He should be a real good pitcher, assuming that he pitches at all.
SP - Cliff Lee - He has pitched with six different teams the past two years, everywhere from Cleveland to Kinston, so it's a little hard to evaluate where he's at. He's pitched well everywhere, including Cleveland, and appears to be a keeper.
RP - Bob Wickman - He didn't pitch in 2003, will attempt a comeback. 240 lbs, makes Rod Beck look like Tim Hudson.
RP - Jose Jimenez - Had three terrific seasons in Colorado, but struggled last year. It's always hard to tell what a former Rockie will do at sea level, but he's a good pitcher.
Detroit Tigers
The Royals improved by 21 games last year, winning 83 games after losing 100 in 2002. Tony Pena was Manager of the Year. If the Tigers improved by 21 games this year... they would still lose 98.
CA - Ivan Rodriguez - He's moving from the best team in the league to the worst, but he got the contract he wanted. The bad news is that Pudge will be 32 years old, an age at which most good catchers stop hitting. It's a tough position to play, and playing half his games in the Texas heat won't help. He has suffered serious injuries in three of the past four seasons.
The good news is that he is coming off of a healthy season. And though most catchers decline rapidly in their early 30's, I think it is fair to say there has never been an athlete quite like Pudge before. And those three injury-plagued seasons... they may have reduced the wear and tear sufficiently to extend his career a couple of years.
The Tigers will get good value on the first two years of the contract. I hope they can develop a good young catcher by 2006, because they'll need him.
1B - Carlos Pena - Pena's sophomore season was almost identical to his rookie year. That's not good; right now, he is a barely adequate first baseman who needs to get better. He's still young enough to take a step forward, but in Detroit, that might be like expecting a flower to grow in a nuclear landscape.
2B - Fernando Vina - Once a very fine, underrated player, but his body has paid the price for turning the pivot. Getting older and broken down.
3B - Eric Munson - One of the few bright lights for the Tigers, he showed off his formidable power. Munson is a decent bet to hit 30 homers if he plays every day, should also develop more patience at the plate. Unfortunately, he's just an awful defensive third baseman.
SS - Carlos Guillen - He did a good job of working the count last year; his .359 on-base percentage was a career high. And the Tigers desperately, desperately need guys who can get on base.
On the bad side, Guillen was plagued by injuries; the most serious was a pelvis inflammation than put him on the DL in July. He lost his job at shortstop to Rey Sanchez and moved to third base.
The Tigers need help at both shortstop and third base. They need more help at shortstop, so Guillen should get a chance to establish himself.
LF - Rondell White - White was having a nice comeback season with the Padres, batting .278 with 18 homers. He then was traded to the Royals and went bananas for 22 games, batting .347 with a .613 slugging percentage. His final numbers were similar to Shannon Stewart's, so I guess if the Royals had won the division, he would have been an MVP candidate.
CF - Alex Sanchez - Fleet outfielder and a .280 hitter. Sanchez would be a valuable player if he would get on base more, or if he was a better base stealer. A decent spare outfielder, could get regular playing time because he plays in Detroit.
RF - Bobby Higginson - Tiger nightmare #34: Higginson, making close to $12 million, had an awful season. That, following two seasons that at best could be described as mediocre. 33 years old; the Tigers still owe him $17 million and have no hope of trading him.
DH - Dmitri Young - The Tigers' All-Star. Young is a good hitter, coming off a terrific year at the plate. He's a gawdawful defensive player at every position.
SP - Jason Johnson - He's coming off of a decent season, but the Tigers picked him up at the wrong time in his career. He will be 30 years old, and his strikeout/walk ratio is not a thing of beauty. He's a guy you root for, but you also have to be realistic about his future.
SP - Mike Maroth - Some pretty good pitchers have lost 20 games in a season. Maroth isn't one of them.
SP - Nate Cornejo - The Tigers' best pitcher in 2003, despite the 6-17 record. Had 12 more walks than strikeouts; only 24 years old, but he appears to have absolutely no future.
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - 20-year-old pitcher who lost 19 games, was in the Tigers' rotation because Denny McLain was unavailable. Unlike the other Tiger starters, he has some talent, but needs to go back to the minors and relearn how to get people out.
SP - Nate Robertson - Has made some decent progress the past two seasons; he isn't going to be a star but he may be the Tigers' best bet to win 10 games this year.
RP - Franklyn German - See Fernando Rodney... German has overpowering stuff but has no idea where it's going. He's a much better pitcher than what he has shown. Just relax, dude.
RP - Fernando Rodney - Has been very impressive the past two seasons in the minors, but has been wretched when he puts on a Tiger uniform. Rodney obviously has the ability to blow the ball past major league hitters; the Tigers should just give him the closer's job and tell him to relax.
WEST
Anaheim Angels
After winning the 2002 World Series, the Angels decided to stand pat; GM Bill Stoneman was apparently unable to tell the difference between a "great team" and a "good team that got lucky". Their luck ran out in 2003, and the Angels lost 85 games.
Their new owner, Arturo Moreno, has different ideas. The Angels still have the nucleus of a championship club; only now, that nucleus has been supplemented by big spending and great players. The national media have been fawning over him, while at the same time criticizing Tom Hicks for using the same strategy.
CA - Ben Molina - He rediscovered his power stroke and had his best season at the plate since 2000. He also won another Gold Glove; on the whole, he was one of the few Angels who played better than he did in their championship season.
Molina swings at everything; he doesn't strike out much, but walks even less. He has still yet to play more than 130 games in a season; a broken wrist in September left him short of that mark. He's OK, but won't get any better.
1B - Darin Erstad? - He was hobbled by a torn hamstring last season; he opted not to have surgery, and spent the winter rehabbing the injury. Meanwhile, the Angels signed two outfielders and lost their first baseman. Erstad may be asked to move to first base, a position he played when he was younger.
Here's the problem. Before the injury, Erstad was the best defensive centre fielder in the league, better than either Torii Hunter or Mike Cameron and maybe Andruw Jones. He has been a very poor hitter the past three seasons but earns his keep with spectacular defense.
If Erstad doesn't hit better, he will be among the worst first basemen in the league. And none of the other outfielders can really play centre field. What the Angels really should do is put Erstad in centre and hope he can stay healthy, and move Garret Anderson to first base and turn him into Al Oliver. That's the only way you can justify having Erstad in the lineup on a regular basis.
2B - Adam Kennedy - His batting average dropped 40 points, but his walks and home runs were up. He's a decent hitter and probably deserved the Gold Glove. A very fine player.
3B - Troy Glaus - After winning the World Series MVP in 2002, Glaus had a good April, a great May... and then things went horribly wrong. He hit only .200 in June and .196 in July before he went on the DL with a shoulder injury and missed the rest of the season. He apparently opted to rehab the shoulder, and not have surgery.
After leading the league in home runs in 2000, he has followed up with three successive seasons of decline, in what should be his prime years. He doesn't strike me as the type of player who will age well - big swing, lots of strikeouts - and his prime years are rapidly going by. Will have a mini-comeback in 2004, hit 20-30 homers if he can stay healthy.
SS - David Eckstein - He is everyone's working-class ballplayer, a little guy who does the little things, and was a World Series hero just two years ago. He plays a solid shortstop, and does a good job of getting on base.
But it was a tough year. Eckstein went on the disabled list in August with a nerve irritation in his right leg. He had one good month but struggled the rest of the season. The Angels should be better this year, so Eckstein will have an opportunity to re-establish himself.
LF - Jose Guillen - He is usually counted among the Angels' "big" signings, but I'm not impressed. Guillen, having failed trials in Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Arizona, had a great first half of the season. He forced his way into the Reds' lineup, then was dealt to the Athletics. With Oakland he wasn't so impressive, though a broken hand didn't help.
He was 27 years old, the most common age for fluke years. His command of the strike zone is still poor. He'll be OK, will hit .270 with 20-25 home runs but I wouldn't count on a big year.
CF - Garret Anderson - Anderson has been on the fringe of the MVP debate the past two seasons. He's never been among the very best players in the league, but people like his durability and consistency; they also like the line drives that frequently leap off of his bat, resulting in extra-base hits and RBI.
He doesn't walk much, and doesn't score a lot of runs. He's Al Oliver, with more homers and lower batting averages (differences that have more to do with changes in the game since the 1970's). Anderson is pegged to be the centre fielder this year, which may not be a good thing; he's a solid defensive player, but isn't getting faster at age 32.
RF - Vladimir Guerrero - After five straight magnificent seasons, Guerrero again played top-quality ball, but his playing time was limited by a back injury. Everyone is saying that those back problems are behind him... I don't expect to see him stealing 40 bases again, though.
If you are wondering why I have Vlad rated 8th among right fielders, the reasons are
1) The back injury.
2) Though he's a legitimately great hitter, his numbers also got a substantial boost from his home parks. Olympic Stadium, once known as a pitcher's park, has become a hitter's heaven. Hiram Bithorn Stadium is a band box. The past three seasons, Vlad has 186 RBI at home, 112 on the road.
3) There are lots of outstanding right fielders in the league.
DH - Tim Salmon - His season was hampered by back pain and kidney stones, but he still played in 148 games and hit almost as well as he did in 2002. The Angels now have five outfielders, so Salmon will be the full time DH in 2004. He will continue to get on base; it remains to be seen whether his power will come back, but after three straight years in the 17-22 homer range, it seems hard to think that he will ever hit 30 homers again.
SP - Bartolo Colon - He has a bad body but a great arm. I think Colon will be pitching well when he's 40; the only problem with fat pitchers is that they have a habit of getting ridiculous, non-pitching-related injuries.
SP - Kelvim Escobar - Escobar began the year as the Blue Jays closer, but struggled (7.79 ERA). He then moved to the starting rotation, and pitched well (3.92 ERA). After the season, he was one of the Angels' marquee signings.
Escobar has nasty stuff, but Angels fans are forewarned. He moved into the bullpen in 2001 because his pitching hand starting going numb around the fifth inning. The cause of the numbness was never diagnosed. Last year, his pitch count went back up, but the numbness did not return. Good for him if it stays that way.
SP - John Lackey - He was roughed up at times and lost 16 games, but he's a much better bet for 2004 than Ramon Ortiz. Good strikeout rate and strikeout/walk ratio; Lackey is big and tall and only 25 years old. A fine young pitcher.
SP - Jarrod Washburn - He had a disappointing season, coughing up 34 home runs, most in the league. Washburn doesn't throw hard, but gives up more fly balls than any other pitcher in the league. Losing Erstad in centre field likely hurt him a lot, and it doesn't look like the Angels are planning to upgrade their outfield defence this year.
SP - Ramon Ortiz - He set a career high with 16 wins, but otherwise last season was a big step backwards. His strikeout rate and strikeout/walk ratio both declined badly; he didn't get anyone out after the break. 31 years old; he may not survive the first month of the season.
RP - Brendan Donnelly - He was unhittable the first half of the season, posting a 0.38 ERA. He struggled a bit in the second half, was also slowed by a bruised hand. An excellent setup man, will stay that way with the Angels because Percival is the closer and Rodriguez is the heir apparent.
RP - Francisco Rodriguez - Under most circumstances, he would have received great accolades for his stunning rookie season. But after his performance in the 2002 playoffs... the "wow factor" was absent. For the record, K-Rod held batters to a .172 average while striking out almost 10 batters per game. He appears to have a limitless future.
RP - Troy Percival - He has been the Angels' closer since 1996, but is now clearly the third most important pitcher in their bullpen, next to Donnelly and K-Rod. Good for the 9th inning only.
Oakland Athletics
I almost feel that any comment written about the Athletics is inadequate if it is less than book-length; I must be suffering Moneyball-envy. The essential facts, that they have great pitching, decent hitting, and can't win in the playoffs, haven't changed. They have lost their best player but have opportunities to improve at other positions, especially the outfield, where Terrence Long and Jermaine Dye were both black holes in the lineup last season.
Some broad conclusions have been drawn about the failures of the Athletics in the playoffs. After last year's Division Series loss, fans and the media were quick to put the blame on Beane's sabermetric philosophy (while at the same time predicting a Boston-Chicago World Series, and then later a Yankees' victory). Only after Game Five of Series did I begin to read articles about why the Marlins were so well suited for playoff success. The reality is that the next person who figures out the secret to postseason success will also be the first person.
If you are a Beane fan, then you can take heart that the these recent failures are not, I don't think, any more significant than the failures of the Blue Jays from 1985-91. Hopefully, they won't have to wait as long as Toronto fans did for a championship (or God knows, Brooklyn fans from 1941-54).
CA - Damian Miller - After four years of consistent performance, he struggled in 2003. That often happens to catchers when they are 33 years old; now he's 34. Like dozens of other veteran, journeyman catchers, he is often praised for his pitch-calling and blocking skills.
1B - Eric Karros/Scott Hatteberg - Karros can hit left-handers, Hatteberg can't hit anybody. Even the most diehard sabermetrician will not be impressed by this combination.
2B - Mark Ellis - Very good defensive second baseman, not much of a hitter but not terrible. A good, inexpensive piece of the puzzle.
3B - Eric Chavez - Chavez is a good hitter, and the best defensive third baseman in the American League. 26 years old, will have a career year within the next couple of seasons.
His growth has been stalled by his inability to hit left-handers; last year he hit .220 off them. He's made no improvement against southpaws since he was a rookie.
SS - Bobby Crosby - The departure of Miguel Tejada gives him a chance to play. 24 years old, coming off an impressive season at Sacramento. Has power, speed and plate discipline; a favourite to be Rookie of the Year.
LF - Eric Byrnes - He played like an All-Star the first half of last year. Byrnes was a monster in May, batting .356 with 21 RBI in that month, then .322 with 17 RBI in June. He hit for the cycle on June 29. At the break, he was batting .299.
Things went bad in July; he hit just .095 that month. And they never got better; his average in the second half was just .168. He briefly redeemed himself, batting .462 in the ALDS against Boston, but then made a boneheaded baserunning move that may have cost his team the series.
Byrnes will be 28 years old this season, and with the exception of two months last year, there is little evidence that he can be a quality regular. A decent fourth outfielder, perhaps, but I doubt he will be in the league many more years. The Athletics have other options for the outfield, though most of them are not very good.
CF - Mark Kotsay - Kotsay was bothered all year by a back injury, including one trip to the disabled list. He didn't hit for average and his power was down, but he still did a decent job of getting on base. He also played much better the second half of the season, after recovering from a disastrous May (.184 average). He's a solid player if healthy, does a little bit of everything.
RF - Bobby Kielty - The Athletics traded a good pitcher (Lilly) to get him, and God Knows they need some outfielders who can put runs on the board. He fits the Moneyball model: inexpensive, gets on base, has some power, can play solid defense, a switch-hitter.
I'm getting ahead of myself, but Kielty reminds me of a young Brian Giles, an outfielder with power and good plate discipline who has struggled to get playing time. Giles' improvement after he left Cleveland was extraordinary, and I wouldn't expect the same from Kielty, but Bobby is the same type of player. I think a .290 average with 25+ homers is very possible.
Kielty is a switch-hitter; he hit .300 batting right-handed, only .216 left-handed. He has historically been much stronger from the right. At age 26, it's time for him to decide if switch-hitting is hurting his career.
DH - Erubiel Durazo - He was OK, drew a lot of walks but didn't hit for much power. A big guy who stands at the plate and takes pitches; lots and lots of pitches. Either you love him... or you don't. Capable of doing better; see Mickey Tettleton, 1991.
SP - Tim Hudson - His innings pitched have gone up four straight years; his walks and home runs allowed have gone down four straight years. A brilliant, underrated pitcher.
SP - Mark Mulder - His injury may have cost Oakland in the postseason, but more importantly, it cost Mulder a chance to reverse a trend. No pitcher since 1999 has thrown 10 complete games in a season. Mulder was going to be the first in four years; he had nine complete games when he fractured his hip.
SP - Barry Zito - The sharp decline in his strikeout rate has been well documented (from 8.61 K/9 in 2002 to 5.67 last season). That's not a good trend, but Tom Glavine survived similar fluctuations in his career, as did David Wells. At age 26, a healthy Zito is still a good bet to win 15 games.
SP - Mark Redman - Gee, surprise, he gets out of Detroit and has a good year. His strikeout rate, 7.13 K's per 9 innings, was by far the best of his career, and Billy Beane wasted no time picking him up. He's a good pitcher.
The only downside to his season was his hitting. Redman was 1 for 61 as a hitter, and broke his thumb while trying to bunt. Welcome back to the American League, Mark.
SP - Rich Harden - He dominated every level of the minors, and made a solid debut with Oakland. Only 22 years old; the Athletics have a sensational record of developing pitchers the past few years.
RP - Chad Bradford - A pretty solid pitcher, though his control was way off target last year. Left-handers have always hit him hard, and last year they just killed him (.326 average, .579 slugging).
RP - Arthur Rhodes - Had a great start to the season, then hurt his ankle and was ineffective the second half of the season. Beane signed him to a three-year deal, so he thinks Rhodes can still bring it. Rhodes may finally get his chance to be a true closer, after many years as one of the best setup men in the league.
Seattle Mariners
OK, so I was wrong about Pat Gillick. He wasn't able to lead the Mariners to the promised land. The failures and disappointments of the Mariners the past four seasons were similar to those faced by the Blue Jays from 1985-91, and by the Orioles in the late 90's. The 92-93 championships saved Gillick from being stuck with Billy Beane's reputation - as a guy whose teams were good but not good enough.
With Gillick gone, the Mariners had a perfectly awful winter. They picked up some guys (Guardado, Ibanez, Aurilia) whose best days are behind them (though the same can be said for the guys they lost - Cameron, Sasaki, Cirillo). Their best hitter and best pitcher are both 41 years old; Boone and Olerud are also in their mid-30's.
The best you can say about the Mariners is that they have two brilliant young pitchers, Soriano and Piñeiro. If Soriano fails to throw 200 innings this year, this team will struggle to finish ahead of Texas.
CA - Ben Davis - He's a switch-hitting catcher, in his prime, and had a terrific first half of the season (.294 average, .490 slugging). He's better than he looks; like most hitters, he struggles at Safeco Field (.219 average).
Davis' season was ruined by a horrible second half (.140 batting average), and overall his numbers were a step backwards. A strained ribcage muscle might have contributed to his struggles. Davis has only once played more than 100 games in a season, three years ago with San Diego.
1B - John Olerud - He had a very noticable off-year, at age 35. Olerud didn't hit for either average or power. The on-base percentage is nice, but you need more out of a first baseman, especially one who is really slow and hits into lots of double plays.
2B - Bret Boone - He's been a strong MVP candidate in two of the past three seasons, and could easily have won last year had his team not folded. He hits for average and power in a poor hitters' park, is a fine defensive player, and is very durable.
Boone will turn 35 years old next season. And he was partly responsible for the Mariners' second-half troubles, batting .313 with 24 homers before the break, .267 with 11 homers afterwards. His batting average tends to bounce up and down from one year to the next.
3B - Scott Spiezio - After doing the World Series hero thing in 2002, he went back to being Scott Spiezio. In the field, he is a conundrum; he is a good defensive first baseman but doesn't hit enough to play the position. His bat is better suited to third, but he's not such a good third sacker. Anyways, he's an improvement over Jeff Cirillo.
SS - Rich Aurilia - Is now entering his Pat Meares years.
LF - Raul Ibanez - He had a couple of good years in Kansas City, and now returns to Seattle, where he spent the first five years of his career on the bench. Ibanez will be 32 years old, and is moving from the best hitter's park in the league to the worst. He's not going to produce a lot of runs.
CF - Randy Winn - He has toiled for most of his career in obscurity, but now suddenly must replace Mike Cameron in centre field for the Mariners. Winn is very fast, is improving as a hitter and as a fielder and as a base stealer. I don't know if I believe in "career momentum" but he's got lots of it entering this season.
RF - Ichiro Suzuki - He's a career .328 hitter, has had 200+ hits and 100+ runs scored in every season. He's one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the game. People love the way he plays the game.
But Ichiro is not among the elite players in the league. He has little power and almost never takes a walk. His average has dropped 40 points since he won the 2001 MVP Award. His .788 OPS was 45th in the league, behind Travis Lee and Joe Randa. Two years in a row, he has led the league in hitting at the break, then crashed and burned in the second half (in 2003, he hit .352 before the break, .259 afterwards).
DH - Edgar Martinez - Edgar says he wants to come back and play for another year. And he'll play. A .406 on-base percentage and 98 RBI make him an ideal DH, even at age 41.
SP - Jamie Moyer - At age 40, he set a career high with 21 wins, and also posted the best ERA of his career. I wish I had some sort of clue about how he will perform in 2004, but I really don't; Moyer has sailed too far into uncharted territory. All I know is that 99.97% of pitchers don't pitch well when they're 41.
SP - Joel Piñeiro - Way good young pitcher, didn't take a great leap forward but was still awfully good. A strong Cy Young candidate in 2004.
SP - Rafael Soriano - The American League's answer to Eric Gagne, except that he spent the first half of the season in the minors and was used in middle relief when he was recalled. The Mariners have signed Guardado to be their closer, so I'm assuming that Soriano will be in the starting rotation. He needs to play a key role on this staff.
SP - Freddy Garcia - A great young pitcher three years ago, his career has stalled. Not that there's anything wrong with a pitcher who throws 200 innings and a has a league-average ERA, but more is expected of Garcia.
I still like him. There is no obvious reason why he can't win 18 games again. He had surgery after the season to repair a pair of ruptured eardrums(?) but his arm is fine. A healthy, inconsistent pitcher is always better thana pitcher who is consistently hurt.
SP - Gil Meche - Two steps forward, one step back. Meche is a young pitcher with a great arm, but spent two full seasons on the disabled list. Last year he came back throwing hard, and won 10 games before the All-Star break, but posted a 6.08 ERA in the second half.
SP - Ryan Franklin - He made 32 starts last year, and will be back in the rotation if they keep Soriano in the pen. Franklin pitched well last year. But he will be 31 years old, and basically lives on guts and guile; his strikeout/walk ratio is unimpressive and his strikeout rate is falling fast. I'm more interested in Franklin's past and Soriano's future than the other way around.
RP - Shigetoshi Hasegawa - He had an amazing season, posting the best ERA of any American League reliever, though there is no obvious reason for his success. 35 years old; his ERA will more than double in 2004.
RP - Eddie Guardado - Every-Third-Day Eddie had another good year for the Twins, has pitched better as a closer than he ever did in middle relief.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers are everybody's pick to finish last in a tough division, again, especially after trading away the best player in the league. But they have Soriano, who is good, and they arguably have the two most talented young hitters in the league (Blalock, Teixeira). The lineup will be competitive with the rest of the league... which means that all the Rangers need is some mediocre pitching to surprise. I'll say it once again: the Rangers don't need good pitching in 2004, they just can't have a pitching staff that allows six runs per game.
Of course, we've been saying this for so long that the words are meaningless. The inability of the Rangers to acquire any good pitchers, or to even get lucky, as the White Sox did with Loaiza and the Expos did with Hernandez, is startling.
CA - Gerald Laird - I don't know if Laird is going to get the bulk of the catching duties in Texas. He's only 24, and is not, to be honest, a terribly impressive young player. But the other guys (Einar Diaz, Todd Greene) were so atrociously awful last year that the Rangers certainly have nothing to lose by giving Laird a shot.
1B - Mark Teixeira - He wasn't the best rookie in the league, but he was the most exciting. One of the best hitting prospects in the league, Teixeira skipped Triple-A and made the Rangers' roster in the spring. He hit .188 in April but was solid the rest of the year. A switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate, only 23 years old, has a big future, starting soon.
2B - Mike Young - Mike Young, meet Mark Grudzielanek. Mark Grudzielanek, meet Mike Young.
3B - Hank Blalock - He had some big splits in his numbers, including a .209 average against left-handers; he also hit .342 at home, only .260 on the road. But he is still very young and has established himself as a hitter. For all of the doom and gloom surrounding the Rangers, the young trio of Blalock, Teixeira and Nix should be fun to watch.
SS - Alfonso Soriano - Last year, he had an awesome April (.370 average, .630 slugging) and September (.348, .670). The four months in between weren't so impressive, but on the whole it was a very good season. His strikeout/walk ratio is poor, though it improved a little bit. If he's 26, then there's still time for him to improve. If he's 28, as has been reported, there's a good chance he has already had his best season.
LF - Kevin Mench - After a solid rookie season in 2002, Mench hit .320 last season — but in only 38 games. He went on the DL in the spring with a strained oblique muscle, then broke his wrist in July and missed the rest of the season.
You never know how someone will come back from a wrist injury; Mench himself isn't sure. He refused to play winter ball, which apparently ticked off the Rangers. It is no sure thing that he will be the starting left fielder in April.
The Rangers, of course, are not blessed with many other options. They added Brian Jordan and Dave Dellucci during the winter, and are still short an outfielder. If healthy, Mench has a good chance to be Kevin Millar or Jody Gerut, and force his way into the lineup.
CF - Laynce Nix - Another exciting young Ranger. Nix, as a 22-year-old rookie, showed off some good power in 53 games with the Rangers. He didn't show much plate discipline but has done well in that department in the minors. He definitely can hit 30 home runs in a season.
RF - Brian Jordan - 37-year-old outfielder, a great athlete who managed to have a fine career.
DH - Brad Fullmer - He hit .392 in April, .169 in May, .339 in June, then tore up his knee and missed the rest of the season. Unpredictability is fun.
SP - Kenny Rogers - The Gambler was about ready to fold'em, but came up with a full house at the last moment and will play another hand.
SP - Colby Lewis - He had a really horrible season but got lucky and had a winning record. 24 years old; he had very good control in the minors but has struggled badly with his control in the big leagues. His chances of future success aren't great to begin with, and are zero if he doesn't start throwing strikes.
SP - R.A. Dickey - After getting stuck at Oklahoma for five years, he finally got a chance. He pitched as well as he is capable of, not great but better than most of the other Rangers.
SP - Chan Ho Park - $65 million pitcher who doesn't pitch often and doesn't get people out. Barring a stunning comeback, he may be remembered as the worst free agent signing in baseball history.
RP - Francisco Cordero - He is the Ranger who gets people out.
If Cordero started all 162 games and threw all 1433 of the team's innings in 2004, would they be worse off than they were last season?
PLAYER RANKINGS
These rankings are looking forward to 2004; I based them on their Win Shares for the past three seasons, with extra weight given to last year, then made adjustments for young players I expect to improve, old players who will likely decline, players coming back from injuries, etc.
Catcher
1. Jorge Posada (Yankees)
2. Ivan Rodriguez (Tigers)
3. A.J. Pierzynski (Giants)
4. Paul LoDuca (Dodgers)
5. Javier Lopez (Orioles)
6. Jason Kendall (Bucs)
7. Mike Piazza (Mets)
8. Ramon Hernandez (Padres)
9. Jason Varitek (BoSox)
10. Mike Lieberthal (Phillies)
11. Ben Molina (Angels)
12. Joe Mauer (Twins)
13. Victor Martinez (Indians)
14. Miguel Olivo (ChiSox)
15. Mike Redmond (Marlins)
16. Benito Santiago (Royals)
17. Mike Matheny (Cards)
18. Ben Davis (Mariners)
19. Brian Schneider (Expos)
20. Jason LaRue (Reds)
21. Damian Miller (Athletics)
22. Chad Moeller (Brewers)
23. Greg Myers (Jays)
24. Michael Barrett (Cubs)
25. Brad Ausmus (Astros)
26. Toby Hall (Rays)
27. Robin Hammock (DBacks)
28. Charles Johnson (Rockies)
29. Eddie Perez (Braves)
30. Gerald Laird (Rangers)
First Base
1. Albert Pujols (Cards)
2. Todd Helton (Rockies)
3. Jim Thome (Phillies)
4. Carlos Delgado (Jays)
5. Jason Giambi (Yankees)
6. Shawn Green (Dodgers)
7. Richie Sexson (DBacks)
8. Derrek Lee (Cubs)
9. Jeff Bagwell (Astros)
10. Mark Teixeira (Rangers)
11. Mike Sweeney (Royals)
12. Phil Nevin (Padres)
13. Doug Mientkiewicz (Twins)
14. Paul Konerko (ChiSox)
15. Nick Johnson (Expos)
16. Hee Seop Choi (Marlins)
17. Rafael Palmeiro (Orioles)
18. John Olerud (Mariners)
19. Kevin Millar (BoSox)
20. Eric Karros (Athletics)
21. Jason Phillips (Mets)
22. Carlos Pena (Tigers)
23. Sean Casey (Reds)
24. Craig Wilson (Pirates)
25. Ben Broussard (Indians)
26. Tino Martinez (Rays)
27. JT Snow (Giants)
28. Darin Erstad (Angels)
29. Lyle Overbay (Brewers)
30. Braves?
Second Base
1. Bret Boone (Mariners)
2. Marcus Giles (Braves)
3. Jose Vidro (Expos)
4. Jeff Kent (Astros)
5. Luis Castillo (Marlins)
6. Ray Durham (Giants)
7. Placido Polanco (Phillies)
8. Mark Loretta (Padres)
9. Orlando Hudson (Jays)
10. Mark Ellis (Athletics)
11. Jose Reyes (Mets)
12. Adam Kennedy (Angels)
13. Roberto Alomar (DBacks)
14. Mike Young (Rangers)
15. Junior Spivey (Brewers)
16. Todd Walker (Cubs)
17. Jerry Hairston (Orioles)
18. D'Angelo Jimenez (Reds)
19. Alex Cora (Dodgers)
20. Pokey Reese (BoSox)
21. Desi Relaford (Royals)
22. Fernando Vina (Tigers)
23. Rey Sanchez (Rays)
24. Chris Stynes (Pirates)
25. Bo Hart (Cards)
26. Ron Belliard (Indians)
27. Luis Rivas (Twins)
28. Damian Jackson (Rockies)
29. Willie Harris (ChiSox)
30. Yankees?
Third Base
1. Scott Rolen (Cards)
2. Eric Chavez (Athletics)
3. Mike Lowell (Marlins)
4. Derek Jeter (Yankees)
5. Corey Koskie (Twins)
6. Hank Blalock (Rangers)
7. Troy Glaus (Angels)
8. Bill Mueller (BoSox)
9. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
10. Edgardo Alfonzo (Giants)
11. Eric Hinske (Jays)
12. Melvin Mora (Orioles)
13. Sean Burroughs (Padres)
14. Morgan Ensberg (Astros)
15. Adrian Beltre (Dodgers)
16. Joe Crede (ChiSox)
17. Joe Randa (Royals)
18. Shea Hillenbrand (DBacks)
19. Scott Spiezio (Mariners)
20. Wes Helms (Brewers)
21. Ty Wigginton (Mets)
22. Eric Munson (Tigers)
23. Tony Batista (Expos)
24. David Bell (Phillies)
25. Vinny Castilla (Rockies)
26. Geoff Blum (Rays)
27. Casey Blake (Indians)
28. Brandon Larson (Reds)
29. Braves?
30. Pirates?
Shortstop
1. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
2. Miguel Tejada (Orioles)
3. Edgar Renteria (Cards)
4. Nomar Garciaparra (BoSox)
5. Alfonso Soriano (Rangers)
6. Rafael Furcal (Braves)
7. Orlando Cabrera (Expos)
8. Angel Berroa (Royals)
9. Kaz Matsui (Mets)
10. Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)
11. Bobby Crosby (Athletics)
12. Jose Valentin (ChiSox)
13. David Eckstein (Angels)
14. Alex Cintron (DBacks)
15. Alex Gonzalez (Marlins)
16. Rich Aurilia (Mariners)
17. Alex S Gonzalez (Cubs)
18. Carlos Guillen (Tigers)
19. Craig Counsell (Brewers)
20. Cristian Guzman (Twins)
21. Julio Lugo (Rays)
22. Jack Wilson (Pirates)
23. Chris Woodward (Jays)
24. Omar Vizquel (Indians)
25. Barry Larkin (Reds)
26. Cesar Izturis (Dodgers)
27. Ramon Vazquez (Padres)
28. Adam Everett (Astros)
29. Royce Clayton (Rockies)
30. Neifi Perez (Giants)
Left Field
1. Barry Bonds (Giants)
2. Manny Ramirez (BoSox)
3. Chipper Jones (Braves)
4. Luis Gonzalez (DBacks)
5. Carlos Lee (ChiSox)
6. Ryan Klesko (Padres)
7. Adam Dunn (Reds)
8. Hidecki Matsui (Yankees)
9. Richard Hidalgo (Astros)
10. Cliff Floyd (Mets)
11. Geoff Jenkins (Brewers)
12. Pat Burrell (Phillies)
13. Frank Catalanotto (Jays)
14. Jacques Jones (Twins)
15. Jose Guillen (Angels)
16. Moises Alou (Cubs)
17. Juan Gonzalez (Royals)
18. Rondell White (Tigers)
19. Jeff Conine (Marlins)
20. Carl Crawford (Rays)
21. Raul Ibanez (Mariners)
22. Eric Byrnes (Athletics)
23. Kevin Mench (Rangers)
24. Jason Bay (Bucs)
25. Ryan Ludwick (Indians)
26. Jeromy Burnitz (Rockies)
27. Larry Bigbie (Orioles)
28. Termel Sledge (Expos)
29. Kerry Robinson (Cards)
30. Dodgers?
Centre Field
1. Carlos Beltran (Royals)
2. Andruw Jones (Braves)
3. Vernon Wells (Jays)
4. Jim Edmonds (Cards)
5. Garret Anderson (Angels)
6. Mike Cameron (Mets)
7. Johnny Damon (BoSox)
8. Brad Wilkerson (Expos)
9. Scott Podsednik (Brewers)
10. Craig Biggio (Astros)
11. Juan Pierre (Marlins)
12. Marlon Byrd (Phillies)
13. Ken Griffey Jr. (Reds)
14. Torii Hunter (Twins)
15. Mark Kotsay (Athletics)
16. Milton Bradley (Indians)
17. Corey Patterson (Cubs)
18. Kenny Lofton (Yankees)
19. Preston Wilson (Rockies)
20. Laynce Nix (Rangers)
21. Jay Payton (Padres)
22. Randy Winn (Mariners)
23. Rocco Baldelli (Rays)
24. Luis Matos (Orioles)
25. Marquis Grissom (Giants)
26. Steve Finley (DBacks)
27. Aaron Rowand (ChiSox)
28. Tike Redman (Pirates)
29. Dave Roberts (Dodgers)
30. Alex Sanchez (Tigers)
Right Field
1. Gary Sheffield (Yankees)
2. Bobby Abreu (Phillies)
3. Lance Berkman (Astros)
4. Brian Giles (Padres)
5. Sammy Sosa (Cubs)
6. Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners)
7. Magglio Ordonez (ChiSox)
8. Vladimir Guerrero (Angels)
9. Austin Kearns (Reds)
10. Larry Walker (Rockies)
11. Trot Nixon (BoSox)
12. Shannon Stewart (Twins)
13. Jody Gerut (Indians)
14. JD Drew (Braves)
15. Jay Gibbons (Orioles)
16. Bobby Kielty (Athletics)
17. Juan Encarnacion (Dodgers)
18. Reggie Sanders (Cards)
19. Carl Everett (Expos)
20. Jose Cruz (Rays)
21. Miguel Cabrera (Marlins)
22. Reed Johnson (Jays)
23. Brian Jordan (Rangers)
24. Raul Mondesi (Pirates)
25. Bobby Higginson (Tigers)
26. Dustan Mohr (Giants)
27. Ben Grieve (Brewers)
28. Karim Garcia (Mets)
29. Aaron Guiel (Royals)
30. Danny Bautista (DBacks)
Designated Hitter
1. Aubrey Huff (Rays)
2. Frank Thomas (ChiSox)
3. Bernie Williams (Yankees)
4. Dmitri Young (Tigers)
5. Tim Salmon (Angels)
6. Edgar Martinez (Mariners)
7. Josh Phelps (Jays)
8. David Ortiz (BoSox)
9. Erubiel Durazo (Athletics)
10. Brad Fullmer (Rangers)
11. Travis Hafner (Indians)
12. Matt Stairs (Royals)
13. Matt LeCroy (Twins)
14. Jack Cust (Orioles)
Starting Pitchers
1. Pedro Martinez (BoSox)
2. Tim Hudson (Athletics)
3. Roy Halladay (Jays)
4. Mark Prior (Cubs)
5. Mark Mulder (Athletics)
6. Javier Vazquez (Yankees)
7. Mike Mussina (Yankees)
8. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
9. Bartolo Colon (Angels)
10. Barry Zito (Athletics)
11. Curt Schilling (BoSox)
12. Joel Piñiero (Mariners)
13. Mark Buehrle (ChiSox)
14. Kerry Wood (Cubs)
15. Johan Santana (Twins)
16. Brandon Webb (DBacks)
17. Andy Pettitte (Astros)
18. Josh Beckett (Marlins)
19. Kip Wells (Pirates)
20. Jamie Moyer (Mariners)
21. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
22. Randy Johnson (DBacks)
23. Kevin Brown (Yankees)
24. Livan Hernandez (Expos)
25. Esteban Loaiza (ChiSox)
26. Jason Schmidt (Giants)
27. Hideo Nomo (Dodgers)
28. Russ Ortiz (Braves)
29. CC Sabathia (Indians)
30. Matt Morris (Cards)
Relief Pitchers
1. Eric Gagne (Dodgers)
2. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
3. Billy Wagner (Phillies)
4. Keith Foulke (BoSox)
5. Octavio Dotel (Astros)
6. Francisco Rodriguez (Angels)
7. John Smoltz (Braves)
8. Eddie Guardado (Mariners)
9. Damaso Marte (ChiSox)
10. Brendan Donnelly (Angels)
11. LaTroy Hawkins (Cubs)
12. Armando Benitez (Marlins)
13. Joe Borowski (Cubs)
14. Tim Worrell (Phillies)
15. Chad Bradford (Athletics)