ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
| The Cardinals may have done the most to improve themselves over the winter. They added Hentgen, Benes and Kile to the pitching staff; those guys are all past their best days, but they should provide solid support for Rick Ankiel and Alan Benes, and perhaps Matt Morris. Dave Veres also helps in the bullpen, and Kent Bottenfield is coming off a good season. On the field, McGwire is awesome, but Tatis is also great and Renteria and Lankford can play, and J.D. Drew should have a big season. I'm having trouble saying bad things about this team... but I guess if Benes hurts his arm again and Ankiel can't throw strikes, they will have some problems. |
| RICK ANKIEL (21, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1998 A 12 6 28 28 1 0 0 161 106 50 222 262 1999 AA-AAA 13 3 24 19 1 1 0 137 98 62 194 230 |
| Ankiel is considered by many to be the top pitching prospect in baseball, for obvious reasons. Though only 21, he is too good for minor league hitters, and he fared very well in five starts with St. Louis. Expect him to be in the St. Louis rotation; he will have some growing pains, of course, and probably will have to battle with his control. But the Cardinals have done the wise thing, acquiring Benes and Hentgen and Kile, and taking a lot of pressure off of Ankiel to be the staff ace. |
| ALAN BENES (28, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 STL 9 9 23 23 2 0 0 162 128 68 160 289 1998 INJURED 1999 INJURED |
| A key part of the armagedden that struck the St. Louis starting rotation, he has been out with injury for two years, which I don't think is a good thing. He looked magnificent in 1997, and I might argue that he was a better young pitcher than Kerry Wood, but it doesn't matter if he doesn't come back. |
| ANDY BENES (33, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 STL 10 7 26 26 0 0 0 177 149 61 175 310 1998 ARI 14 13 34 34 1 0 0 231 221 74 164 397 1999 ARI 13 12 33 32 0 0 0 198 216 82 141 481 |
| Despite the success of the Diamondbacks, Benes continued to flounder last year. He has now signed with St. Louis, where he pitched very well for Tony LaRussa in the mid-90's. Benes is not old, and is still a good pitcher; he is also joining a very talented team that desperately needs him. I expect Benes to win 15-17 games this year. |
| ERIC DAVIS (OF, 38, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 BAL 42 158 48 11 0 8 29 25 14 47 304 358 525 6 0 1998 BAL 131 452 148 29 1 28 81 89 44 108 327 388 582 7 6 1999 STL 58 191 49 9 2 5 27 30 30 49 257 359 403 5 4 |
| He was hurt, as he always has been. I'm not sure if there has ever been a player with as devastating a combination of power and speed as Davis had, but that hardly matters now. Davis' career is almost over; his best chance to help a team next year will be as a fourth outfielder/platoon player. |
| J.D. DREW (OF, 24, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 NORTH 44 170 58 6 1 18 51 50 30 40 341 440 706 5 3 1998 AA-AAA 45 146 47 11 2 7 33 24 35 33 322 453 568 3 4 |
| A lot of people have fussed over this guy, but his long-awaited rookie season was a bit of a stinker. I wouldn't be too worried; Drew is a great young talent who will have a good season, probably a great season. If the Cardinals improve as much as they should, we should see a lot of Drew this year, both at the All-Star Game and in the playoffs. |
| JIM EDMONDS (CF, 30, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ANA 133 502 146 27 0 26 82 80 60 80 291 368 500 5 7 1998 ANA 154 599 184 42 1 25 115 91 57 114 307 368 506 7 5 1999 ANA 55 204 51 17 2 5 34 23 28 45 250 339 426 5 4 |
| Edmonds missed the first four months of the season with injury, and couldn't find his power stroke when he came back. He is a terrific player when he is healthy, and should still be in his prime. I expect him to be at the top of his game again next year, and am only worried about his penchant for running into outfield walls. |
| LUTHER HACKMAN (25, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 0 6 10 10 0 0 0 51 58 34 34 782 1998 AA 3 12 28 23 1 0 0 139 169 54 90 544 1999 AAA 7 6 15 15 1 1 0 101 106 44 88 374 |
| Hackman is a young pitcher with the Cardinals. His minor league record is pretty awful, but last year he pitched well at Colorado Springs, and that's a tough place to pitch. Hackman has a chance to surprise, and the Cardinals need help in their bullpen. |
| PAT HENTGEN (31, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 TOR 15 10 35 35 9 3 0 264 253 71 160 368 1998 TOR 12 11 29 29 0 0 0 177 208 69 94 517 1999 TOR 11 12 34 34 1 0 0 199 225 65 118 479 |
| He had a rough start, then pitched well towards the end of the season; overall, everything was better than in 1998. He has lost something off of his fastball, and has been forced to make an adjustment. With any luck, he has turned a new leaf, and will start off the new season strong. Hentgen is still young, and his K/BB ratio was promising. I look for him to have a good year. |
| THOMAS HOWARD (OF, 35, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 HOU 107 255 63 16 1 3 24 22 26 48 247 323 353 1 2 1998 LA 47 76 14 4 0 2 9 4 3 15 184 215 316 1 0 1999 STL 98 195 57 10 0 6 16 28 17 26 292 353 436 1 1 |
| He is journeyman with limited skills who has been around forever. Howard hit well for St. Louis in a backup role last year; with the retirement of Willie McGee, my guess is that he will arrive at spring training with a fourth outfielder job ready and waiting for him. |
| DARRYL KILE (31, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 HOU 19 7 34 34 6 4 0 256 208 94 205 257 1998 COL 13 17 36 35 4 1 0 230 257 96 158 520 1999 COL 8 13 32 32 1 0 0 191 225 109 116 661 |
|
Kile managed to pitch about as well in Colorado as he did on the road;
unfortunately, he stunk on both fronts, and his career is in some jeopardy. He
is not too old, and has a history of success... but obviously his confidence
is shot. He needs a new team and a new pitching coach. ADDENDUM: Kile has been traded to St. Louis. If he can't succeed with LaRussa and Dave Duncan, his career will end quickly. |
| RAY LANKFORD (OF, 33, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 STL 133 465 137 36 3 31 94 98 95 125 295 411 585 21 11 1998 STL 154 533 156 37 1 31 94 105 86 151 293 391 540 26 5 1999 STL 122 422 129 32 1 15 77 63 49 110 306 380 493 14 4 |
| Lankford has been one of the best outfielders in the league for several years now, but gets little credit for it. He does everything well at the plate; he also has very good range in the outfield, though last season he was moved to left field after playing several years in centre. At this point in his career, Lankford's biggest problems are with injuries; he also has trouble with left-handers, and may be forced into a platoon role in a couple of seasons. |
| ELI MARRERO (CA, 26, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 112 395 108 21 7 20 60 68 25 53 273 317 514 4 - |
| Marrero was given a chance to play everyday last year, and had about as bad a season as you can have. He can hit for some power, and last I heard the Cardinals were talking about being patient with him... but I have to think that his chances of ever being a regular are slim. |
| MIKE MATHENY (CA, 30, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MIL 123 320 78 16 1 4 29 32 17 68 244 294 338 0 1 1998 MIL 108 320 76 13 0 6 24 27 11 63 238 278 334 1 0 1999 TOR 57 163 35 6 0 3 16 17 12 37 215 271 307 0 0 |
| Matheny is a good defensive catcher, and that is about all he offers. He is a brutal hitter, yet somehow managed to play on a semi-regular basis for the Brewers in 1997-98. Even last year with the Blue Jays he played too much, due to Fletcher's injury. The defense is nice, but he absolutely can't be given more than 100 at bats in a season. |
| JOE MCEWING (IF/OF, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 103 263 68 6 3 4 33 35 19 39 259 309 350 2 4 1998 AA-AAA 138 552 189 51 11 15 97 92 42 57 342 389 556 15 12 |
| McEwing had no prospects of ever having a career until 1998, when he suddenly and unexpectedly had a typical Paul Molitor season at Memphis. Got a job with the big club last year, and didn't embarrass himself. He's not a good enough hitter to be a regular, and probably never will be. But he can play almost every position on the field, so if he can keep his average over .270, he should stick around a few years. Expect him to peak in 2000. |
| MARK MCGWIRE (1B, 36, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 OAK-STL 156 540 148 27 0 58 86 123 101 159 274 393 646 3 0 1998 STL 155 509 152 21 0 70 130 147 162 155 299 470 752 1 0 1999 STL 153 521 145 21 1 65 118 147 133 141 278 424 697 0 0 |
There isn't a whole lot to add to what has already been said
about McGwire, so instead I'll chart the progress of the six first
basemen who were born between September 9, 1963 and September 24,
1964.Name GM AB HT DB TP HR RN RBI BB AVG OBA SLU SB RPalmeiro 1940 7281 2158 426 33 361 1157 1227 832 296 369 513 86 FMcGriff 1897 6786 1946 354 20 390 1094 1192 1045 287 382 517 68 WClark 1846 6746 2040 410 45 263 1108 1135 868 302 381 493 62 MGrace 1767 6646 2058 415 42 137 982 922 851 310 386 447 66 MMcGwire 1688 5652 1498 240 6 522 1059 1277 1185 265 394 587 11 CFielder 1470 5157 1313 200 7 319 744 1008 693 255 345 482 2 Cecil Fielder is the oldest, Rafael Palmeiro is the youngest. Fielder's career appears to be over; Clark's is sputtering. Palmeiro, McGwire, and Grace are still in their prime. I'm not sure about McGriff. McGwire needs 233 homers to match Hank Aaron's record of 755. This seems like a lot, but over the last three years McGwire has averaged 64 home runs a year, so if he maintains this pace he will break the record in three years and four months. It is interesting to note that the most productive home run phase of Aaron's career also began at age 35. McGwire is at his peak right now, and shows no sign of slowing down, though he started to have some nagging injuries last year. |
| MIKE MOHLER (32, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 OAK 1 10 62 10 0 0 1 102 116 54 66 513 1998 OAK 3 3 57 0 0 0 0 61 70 26 42 516 1999 STL 1 1 48 0 0 0 1 49 47 23 31 438 |
| He is a left-handed reliever who was called into St. Louis after LaRussa finally gave up on both Honeycutt and Fossas. There are a hundred other guys like Mohler; he isn't the best of his kind, but he also isn't the worst. He's average. |
| MATT MORRIS (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 STL 12 9 33 33 3 0 0 217 208 69 149 319 1998 STL 7 5 17 17 2 1 0 113 101 42 79 253 1999 INJURED |
|
Tony LaRussa must be wondering what the hell happened. At the
end of 1997, he had both Morris and Alan Benes in his starting
rotation. This is the equivalent of having both a young Roger
Clemens and a young Mike Mussina on your staff. Benes tore
something in his arm, and has been gone for two years. Morris tore
something in his shoulder; I remember that it was his shoulder,
because he came back in spring training and immediately tore
something in his elbow. Morris looked like a wonderful pitcher in 1997 and 1998. Whether he'll ever follow up on that progress in anybody's guess. |
| CRAIG PAQUETTE (IF/OF, 31, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 KC 77 252 58 15 1 8 26 33 10 57 230 263 393 2 2 1999 STL 48 157 45 6 0 10 21 37 6 38 287 309 516 1 0 |
| Paquette returned to the majors, and had a good year in a utility role. He can play almost anywhere, so if he keeps hitting home runs he will get more at bats. I would not expect him to return to regular duty. |
| PLACIDO POLANCO (2B, 24, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 129 508 148 16 3 2 71 56 29 51 291 330 366 19 5 1998 AAA 70 246 69 19 1 1 36 21 16 15 280 324 378 6 3 |
| A very young second baseman who saw his playing time doubled last year, and will probably get even more at bats in 2000. The good news is that Polanco will likely hit .300; the bad news is that he has no power, doesn't walk much, and has yet to learn to steal bases at the major league level. If he can get on base more and steal a few bases, he should be a decent player. |
| DANTE POWELL (OF, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 108 452 109 19 5 14 91 67 52 105 241 319 398 34 10 1998 AAA 134 448 103 17 3 14 83 52 71 138 230 335 375 41 9 1999 AAA 51 187 62 14 2 7 29 30 14 38 332 381 540 22 6 |
| Powell had a hot streak at Tucson last season, the first time he has ever hit well in his life. I'm not impressed, and I don't really think he is going to have a career. His speed could get him a job as a spare outfielder. |
| SCOTT RADINSKY (32, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 LA 5 1 75 0 0 0 3 62 54 21 44 289 1998 STL 6 6 62 0 0 0 13 61 63 20 45 263 1999 STL 2 1 43 0 0 0 3 28 27 18 17 488 |
| After three straight outstanding seasons, Radinsky had some injury woes and did not have a good season. He has had some serious health problems in the past, and I'm not sure how many comebacks he has left in him; if he is sound then he is a good pitcher, but should not be used as a closer. |
| EDGAR RENTERIA (SS, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 FLO 154 617 171 21 3 4 90 52 45 108 277 327 340 32 15 1998 FLO 133 517 146 18 2 3 79 31 48 78 282 347 342 41 22 1999 STL 154 585 161 36 2 11 92 63 53 82 275 334 400 37 8 |
| Renteria is a good young player, with some positives and negatives. He is durable and consistent, hit for much more power last season than in previous years, is improving as a base stealer, and raises his walk totals each year. On the other hand, I thought he would be a .300 hitter by now, and he isn't; he also is not a great fielder. Given the total package, I think he is a good player, especially if he hits with as much power as he did in 1999. |
| HEATHCLIFF SLOCUMB (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 BOS-SEA 0 9 76 0 0 0 27 75 84 49 64 516 1998 SEA 2 5 57 0 0 0 3 67 72 44 51 532 1999 BAL-STL 3 2 50 0 0 0 0 62 64 39 60 377 |
| After two disastrous seasons, Slocumb returned to the National League and pitched very well for St. Louis (12.46 ERA with Baltimore, 2.36 with the Cards). I don't predict a return to the closer's role, however; his control is still bad, and he is turning 34. A longshot to have another good season. |
| PAUL SPOLJARIC (30, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 TOR-SEA 0 3 57 0 0 0 3 71 61 36 70 369 1998 SEA 4 6 47 6 0 0 0 83 85 55 89 648 1999 PHI-TOR 2 5 42 5 0 0 0 73 85 39 73 626 |
| The numbers aren't as bad as they look. Spoljaric started the year in Philadelphia, and got his socks knocked off, posting a 15.09 ERA in five games (including three starts). In Toronto, he posted a respectable 4.65 ERA in 62 innings, and that also included two dreadful starts at the end of the year when the Blue Jays had no one else left. He throws hard, gets strikeouts, has control problems; he's an okay middle reliever, should never again be allowed to start a game. |
| GARRET STEPHENSON (28, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 PHI 8 6 20 18 2 0 0 117 104 38 81 315 1998 PHI 0 2 6 6 0 0 0 23 31 19 17 900 1999 STL 6 3 18 12 0 0 0 85 90 29 59 422 |
| Stephenson recovered from a disastrous 1998 season, and pitched fairly well for the Cardinals. He is well suited to his role, pitching long relief and making some spot starts. I wouldn't expect him to thrive with a heavier workload. |
| LARRY SUTTON (RF, 30, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 KC 27 69 20 2 0 2 9 8 5 12 290 338 406 0 0 1998 KC 111 310 76 14 2 5 29 42 29 46 245 311 352 3 3 1999 KC 43 102 23 6 0 2 14 15 13 17 225 308 343 1 0 |
| He is 30, he has no positives as a hitter, and he has little defensive value. His chances of being on a roster in April are slim. |
| FERNANDO TATIS (3B, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 TEX 60 223 57 9 0 8 29 29 14 42 256 297 404 3 0 1998 TEX-STL 150 532 147 33 4 11 69 58 36 123 276 322 415 13 5 1999 STL 149 537 160 31 2 34 104 107 82 128 298 404 553 21 9 |
| This may have been the top surprise season of 1999. Is there anybody who thought that Tatis could be a first-class power hitter, or get on base 40 percent of the time? He is still very young, and his season was rock solid in every respect; I guess we have to expect him to be one of the better third basemen in the league for the next ten years. |
| MARK THOMPSON (29, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 COL 3 3 6 6 0 0 0 30 40 13 9 789 1998 COL 1 2 6 6 0 0 0 23 36 12 14 771 1999 STL 1 3 5 5 0 0 0 29 26 17 22 276 |
| Thompson escaped from Colorado after spending five years in the thin air, and rejuvenated his career with five good starts in St. Louis. Obviously, he will be helped by leaving Colorado, but I still don't think much of him. A mediocre pitcher, won't survive in the rotation, could help a bit in long relief. |
| DAVE VERES (33, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MON 2 3 53 0 0 0 1 62 68 27 47 348 1998 COL 3 1 63 0 0 0 8 76 67 27 74 283 1999 COL 4 8 73 0 0 0 31 77 88 37 71 514 |
|
He pitched about as well as anybody can in Colorado, and set a team
record for saves. Veres pitched well in both of his seasons in Colorado, and
there doesn't appear to be any reason why he shouldn't continue to pitch well...
except that there is this Third Year Rule I'm developing for Colorado pitchers,
which says that two good seasons must always be followed by a bad one. We will
wait and see. ADDENDUM: Veres has been traded to St. Louis, where he will presumably be the closer. I think his chances of success are very good. |
| FERNANDO VINA (2B, 31, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MIL 79 324 89 12 2 4 37 28 12 23 275 312 361 8 7 1998 MIL 159 637 198 39 7 7 101 45 54 46 311 386 427 22 16 1999 MIL 37 154 41 7 0 1 17 16 14 6 266 339 331 5 2 |
| I have always thought that Vina was among the most underrated players in baseball. He can hit .300, get on base, drive a few extra-base hits, and play spectacular defense at second base. But like many second basemen, he is prone to getting hurt; it's a tough position to play. Capable of having a big year if he is healthy. |