SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS


      The Giants had another winning season, despite some key injuries, and made a brief playoff run in August. They are not a very impressive team, but they have a terrific manager and they have Barry Bonds and some other good players. I like the Giants, but I think they have a tough year ahead of them; the roster is getting old, and they don't many impressive young kids. They hardly made any improvements during the winter. They desperately need some young pitchers likes Estes and Hernandez to have big years, but even that may not be enough to overcome some injury problems. The West division will likely be a weak one.

 
RICH AURILIA (SS, 29, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      SF  46 102  28  8  0  5  16  19   8  15  275 321 500   1   1

 1998      SF 122 413 110 27  2  9  54  49  31  62  266 319 407   3   3

 1999      SF 152 558 157 23  1 22  68  80  43  71  281 336 444   2   3


 
      A good example of persistence; Aurilia had a starting job with the Giants in 1996, and was terrible. A couple of years later he got the job back, and is now among the best hitting shortstops in the National League. Defensively, he can cover ground, though he led all shortstops in errors with 28. But that's not a terrible total, and he easily compensates with his bat. A good player who is still in his prime.

 
MARVIN BENARD (OF, 30, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      SF  84 114  26  4  0  1  13  13  13  29  228 315 289   3   1

 1998      SF 121 286  92 21  1  3  41  36  34  39  322 396 434  11   4

 1999      SF 149 562 163 36  5 16 100  64  55  97  290 359 457  27  14


 
      Surprise, surprise. Benard played a full season, and played well, hitting for more power than expected. He looks like he could be some manager's secret weapon for the next ten years, a terrific fourth outfielder who can play every day when needed. I would not expect him to remain a regular for very long, but we shall see.

 
BARRY BONDS (LF, 36, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      SF 159 532 155 26  5 40 123 101 145  87  291 446 585  37   8

 1998      SF 156 552 167 44  7 37 120 122 130  92  303 438 609  28  12

 1999      SF 102 355  93 20  2 34  91  83  73  62  262 389 617  15   2


 
      I know a lot of people don't like this guy, but it's about time we started talking about him as one of the all-time greats. And I'm not talking about Tony Gwynn or Dave Winfield or Reggie Jackson or Al Kaline; those guys are all great players, but Bonds is in another class. I'm talking Willie Mays and Ted Williams and Ty Cobb and whoever.
      What are his flaws? Compare him to Willie Mays; Mays hit .302 in his career, Bonds' career average is .288. Mays hit 660 homers, Bonds has 445 through age 35. Mays stole 338 bases; Bonds already has 460 steals. Getting on base? Bonds draws far more walks than Willie did. Defense? Bonds has eight Gold Gloves.
      Actually, with his walks, he's more of a cross between Mays and Mantle. 1999 was probably the first year of the decade in which you could not make a solid argument that Bonds was the league's best player. And yet, he was still amazing. He started super-hot, then missed two months with an elbow injury. He struggled a bit when he got back, then got super-hot again when the Giants made their final charge, before knee surgery finally ended his season. He finished with 34 homers in only 355 at bats.
      Bonds will be 36 next year. Mays at the same age had the first off-year of his career, hitting .263 with 22 homers. There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that Bonds' numbers will decline, but we'll have to wait and see.

 
ELLIS BURKS (OF, 36, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     COL 119 424 123 19  2 32  91  82  47  75  290 363 571   7   2

 1998  COL-SF 142 504 147 28  6 21  76  76  58 111  292 365 496  11   8

 1999      SF 120 390 110 19  0 31  73  96  69  86  282 394 569   7   5


 
      You already know all there is to know about Ellis, that he is a terrific player who keeps getting hurt. At age 36, it is unlikely that his health is suddenly going to improve. Burks should have another good year in 2000, but it's anybody's guess how often he will play.

 
JAY CANIZARO (IF, 27, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997  AA-AAA  73 257  61 16  0 13  48  50  35  68  237 329 451   4   4

 1998  AA-AAA 128 387  87 13  3 18  70  46  70  69  225 344 413   5   3

 1999     AAA 105 364 102 20  2 26  76  78  49  79  280 366 560  16   5


 
      Canizaro never looked like much of a hitter until last year, when he had a power surge at Fresno. Chances are he won't hit enough in the majors to have a career, but he might suprise; there is a market for second basemen who can hit home runs.

 
RUSS DAVIS (3B, 31, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     SEA 119 420 114 29  1 20  57  63  27 100  271 317 488   6   2

 1998     SEA 141 502 130 30  1 20  68  82  34 134  259 305 442   4   3

 1999     SEA 124 432 106 17  1 21  55  59  32 111  245 304 435   3   3


 
      He's in some trouble. He wants to be like Dean Palmer, but he only hits half as many home runs. Otherwise, he has a low batting average, a terrible K/BB ratio, no speed and bad defense. He has signed with the Giants, but I have to believe that they have some better options.

 
WILSON DELGADO (IF, 25, S)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA 119 416 120 22  4  9  47  59  24  70  288 327 425   9   3

 1998     AAA 127 512 142 22  2 12  87  65  52  92  277 344 398   9   5


1999 SF 35 71 18 2 1 0 7 3 5 9 254 312 310 1 0

 
      Delgado is a young middle infielder who can hit a little bit. There isn't a job available for him in San Francisco, and he's not good enough to force his way into the lineup. Delgado will probably last for several years as a bench player, but he will need some luck to get a regular starting job.

 
MIGUEL DEL TORO (28, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997    MEX    0   0  26  0  0  0  0  36  21  32  30 375

 1998    MEX    9   4  39 10  0  0  5  92  81  44  56 382

 1999    AAA    4   2  40  0  0  0  0  71  76  29  71 442


1999 SF 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 24 24 11 20 418

 
      Del Toro made his debut with the Pirates in 1992, and pitched well, but then disappeared off the radar screen. He returned from Mexico to pitch well last year, first in Fresno, and then San Francisco. He will have a job in 2000; there is no reason that he cannot continue to pitch well, except that his control might be a little shaky.

 
ALAN EMBREE (30, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     ATL   3   1  66  0  0  0  0  46  36  20  45 254

 1998 ATL-ARI   4   2  55  0  0  0  1  53  56  23  43 419

 1999      SF   3   2  68  0  0  0  0  59  42  26  53 338


 
      Embree has now had three straight good years in the bullpen. He is left-handed, throws hard, has good control, and gets strikeouts. That's a combination that should keep him around for many more years. More of the same in 2000.

 
BOBBY ESTALELLA (CA, 26, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA 123 433 101 32  0 16  63  65  56 109  233 321 418   3   0

 1998     AAA  76 242  68 14  1 17  49  49  66  49  281 435 558   0   0

 1999     AAA 110 386  89 23  2 15  58  62  55 100  231 330 417   4   1


1998 PHI 47 165 31 6 1 8 16 20 13 49 188 247 382 0 0

 
      Estalella saw his fortunes go into a tailspin last year. After bombing with the Phillies in 1998, he returned to the minors, and again hit poorly. As well, Lieberthal has firmly taken control of the catcher's job in Philadelphia. Estalella is young enough to re-establish himself as a backup, but I will be surprised if he gets many at bats this year.

 
SHAWN ESTES (27, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997      SF  19   5  32 32  3  2  0 201 162 100 181 318

 1998      SF   7  12  25 25  1  1  0 149 150  80 136 506

 1999      SF  11  11  32 32  1  1  0 203 209 112 159 492


 
      After his great 1997 season, Estes has had a lot of problems getting hitters out. His control is worse than ever (he also threw a league-leading 15 wild pitches), and he can't overpower hitters anymore. He might make an adjustment... but he's got such a long way to go, that I wouldn't expect another good year from him until he is 30.

 
MARK GARDNER (38, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997      SF  12   9  30 30  2  1  0 180 188  57 136 429

 1998      SF  13   6  33 33  4  2  0 212 203  65 151 433

 1999      SF   5  11  29 21  1  0  0 139 142  57  86 647


 
      Everything was dramatically worse than in previous years. He is 38 years old, and there is nothing in his 1999 record that suggests he can still pitch. A comeback would be a major surprise.

 
LIVAN HERNANDEZ (25, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     FLO   9   3  17 17  0  0  0  96  81  38  72 318

 1998     FLO  10  12  33 33  9  0  0 234 265 104 162 472

 1999  FLO-SF   8  12  30 30  2  0  0 200 227  76 144 464


 
      He has had a couple of disappointing years, but he is healthy, and is still very young (on the other hand, his brother is rumoured to have lied about his age, so you have to wonder about Livan. Do you think this skepticism about the true ages of the Hernandez brothers is grounded in fact, or just stems from general mistrust of Cubans?) He is with a good team now, and he had a fine K/BB ratio last year. I expect him to be good.

 
JOHN JOHNSTONE (31, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997  SF-OAK   0   0  18  0  0  0  0  25  22  14  19 324

 1998      SF   6   5  70  0  0  0  0  88  72  38  86 307

 1999      SF   4   6  62  0  0  0  3  66  48  20  56 260


 
      Johnstone is an outstanding setup man who led the majors with 28 holds last season. It took him a long time to establish himself, but for the moment he is a very good pitcher. Has an outside chance at becoming a closer, if things break right.

 
JEFF KENT (2B, 32, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      SF 155 580 145 38  2 29  90 121  48 133  250 316 472  11   3

 1998      SF 137 526 156 37  3 31  94 128  48 110  297 359 555   9   4

 1999      SF 138 511 148 40  2 23  86 101  61 112  290 366 511  13   6


 
      Kent is now officially the Gil Hodges of second basemen. Kent has had an interesting career, but he is now reaching the age where his production might tail off, or he may have to move to another position. But after three straight seasons of 100+ RBI, I see no reason why he shouldn't do it again.

 
RAMON MARTINEZ (IF, 27, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      AA 105 404 129 32  4  5  72  54  40  48  319 381 455   4   5

 1998     AAA  98 364 114 21  2 14  58  60  38  42  313 378 497   0   3


1999 SF 61 144 38 6 0 5 21 19 14 17 264 327 410 1 2

 
      Martinez was never much of a prospect until three years ago, when he started to hit. The Giants decided to give him a chance last season, and he continued to hit well. He is probably too old to ever play on a regular basis, but his bat should keep him around as a utility infielder for a few years.

 
DOUG MIRABELLI (CA, 29, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA 100 332  88 23  2  8  49  48  55  69  265 370 419   1   2

 1998     AAA  85 265  69 12  2 13  45  53  53  55  260 384 468   2   0

 1999     AAA  86 320 100 24  1 14  63  51  48  56  313 398 525   8   2


1999 SF 33 87 22 6 0 1 10 10 9 25 253 327 356 0 0

 
      Another veteran minor league catcher who has been stuck at Triple-A since 1995. Mirabelli hit fairly well last season, and played well for San Francisco. He could be a second-or-third string catcher, and do the job about as well as anyone else.

 
BILL MUELLER (3B, 29, S)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      SF 128 390 114 26  3  7  51  44  48  71  292 369 428   4   3

 1998      SF 145 534 157 27  0  9  93  59  79  83  294 383 395   3   3

 1999      SF 116 414 120 24  0  2  61  36  65  52  290 388 362   4   2


 
      Mueller is a very consistent player who hits for a good average, and does a fine job of getting on base. But his power numbers are going down, whereas everyone else's power numbers are going up. If he doesn't reverse this trend, he will be a bench player within a couple of seasons.

 
CALVIN MURRAY (OF, 29, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      AA 122 419 114 25  3 10  83  56  66  73  272 371 418  52   6

 1998  AA-AAA 121 427 125 25  6 11  79  44  70  63  293 392 457  37  16

 1999     AAA 130 548 183 31  7 23 122  73  49  88  334 389 542  42  14


 
      Murray has paid his dues, toiling at Triple-A since 1993. He played very well at Fresno, and got his first major league at bats with the Giants. He can draw walks and steal bases, and last year hit for power. He's not going to be a regular, but has enough skills to be a good fourth outfielder if given the chance.

 
JOE NATHAN (25, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997       A   2   1  18  5  0  0  2  62  53  26  44 247

 1998       A   8   6  22 22  0  0  0 122 100  48 118 332

 1999  AA-AAA   6   5  15 15  0  0  0  84  72  43  89 429


1999 SF 7 4 19 14 0 0 1 90 84 46 54 418

 
      Nathan made a big jump last year to the majors, and pitched well. He gets lots of strikeouts, and has shown good control in the lower minors. I expect him to develop into a very good pitcher, starting soon.

 
ROBB NEN (30, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     FLO   9   3  73  0  0  0 35  74  72  40  81 389

 1998      SF   7   7  78  0  0  0 40  88  59  25 110 152

 1999      SF   3   8  72  0  0  0 37  72  79  27  77 398


 
      Nen struggled a little last year, losing eight games and blowing nine saves. He tends to bounce up and down from year to year; he still throws hard and has very good control. He had surgery during the winter, so his immediate future is a little dicey; I expect that he will be back among the better closers in the league by mid-season.

 
RUSS ORTIZ (26, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997  AA-AAA   6   6  26 26  0  0  0 142 148  71 120 494


1998 SF 4 4 22 13 0 0 0 88 90 46 75 499 1999 SF 18 9 33 33 3 0 0 208 189 125 164 381

 
      Ortiz had an impressive season, but I'm skeptical about him. His control was awful, and he doesn't strike out enough hitters to compensate. Unless his control suddenly improves, I suspect he will struggle to find himself the next couple of years, much like his teammate, Sean Estes.

 
FELIX RODRIGUEZ (27, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     CIN   0   0  26  1  0  0  0  46  48  28  34 430

 1998     ARI   0   2  43  0  0  0  5  44  44  29  36 614

 1999      SF   2   3  47  0  0  0  0  66  67  29  55 380


 
      Rodriguez has pitched for four different teams in the last four seasons. Last year was a big improvement on 1998; he is a servicable middle reliever, not likely to get any better.

 
ARMANDO RIOS (OF, 29, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      AA 127 461 133 30  6 14  86  79  63  85  289 374 471  17   7

 1998     AAA 128 445 134 23  1 26  85 103  55  73  301 378 533  17   5


1999 SF 72 150 49 9 0 7 32 29 24 35 327 420 527 7 4

 
      After two strong years in the minors, Rios made the big club and continued to hit very well. It's taken him a long time to get this far, and I doubt he will ever get a chance to be a regular. But as long as he continues to hit, Rios should be a valuable fourth outfielder. Expect another good year in 2000.

 
KIRK RUETER (29, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997      SF  13   6  32 32  0  0  0 191 194  51 115 345

 1998      SF  16   9  33 33  1  0  0 187 193  57 102 436

 1999      SF  15  10  33 33  1  0  0 185 219  55  94 541


 
      Reuter had another winning record, despite the fact he did not pitch very well. He is now 70-39 lifetime; those are impressive numbers, but I am skeptical about him. He has declined badly for two straight seasons, and there isn't much evidence that he is going to suddenly improve. Not a good bet to last the season in the rotation.

 
J.T. SNOW (1B, 32, S)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      SF 157 531 149 36  1 28  81 104  96 124  281 387 510   6   4

 1998      SF 138 435 108 29  1 15  65  79  58  84  248 332 423   1   2

 1999      SF 161 570 156 25  2 24  93  98  86 121  274 370 451   0   4


 
      Snow had his second solid season in the past three years. When he plays well he is a middle-of-the-pack first baseman; he can't hit lefties at all, and would be much more valuable as part of a platoon. He is also getting older, so the Giants would be wise to start cutting down on his at bats sooner rather than later.