SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
| The Giants had another winning season, despite some key injuries, and made a brief playoff run in August. They are not a very impressive team, but they have a terrific manager and they have Barry Bonds and some other good players. I like the Giants, but I think they have a tough year ahead of them; the roster is getting old, and they don't many impressive young kids. They hardly made any improvements during the winter. They desperately need some young pitchers likes Estes and Hernandez to have big years, but even that may not be enough to overcome some injury problems. The West division will likely be a weak one. |
| RICH AURILIA (SS, 29, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 46 102 28 8 0 5 16 19 8 15 275 321 500 1 1 1998 SF 122 413 110 27 2 9 54 49 31 62 266 319 407 3 3 1999 SF 152 558 157 23 1 22 68 80 43 71 281 336 444 2 3 |
| A good example of persistence; Aurilia had a starting job with the Giants in 1996, and was terrible. A couple of years later he got the job back, and is now among the best hitting shortstops in the National League. Defensively, he can cover ground, though he led all shortstops in errors with 28. But that's not a terrible total, and he easily compensates with his bat. A good player who is still in his prime. |
| MARVIN BENARD (OF, 30, L) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 84 114 26 4 0 1 13 13 13 29 228 315 289 3 1 1998 SF 121 286 92 21 1 3 41 36 34 39 322 396 434 11 4 1999 SF 149 562 163 36 5 16 100 64 55 97 290 359 457 27 14 |
| Surprise, surprise. Benard played a full season, and played well, hitting for more power than expected. He looks like he could be some manager's secret weapon for the next ten years, a terrific fourth outfielder who can play every day when needed. I would not expect him to remain a regular for very long, but we shall see. |
| BARRY BONDS (LF, 36, L) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 159 532 155 26 5 40 123 101 145 87 291 446 585 37 8 1998 SF 156 552 167 44 7 37 120 122 130 92 303 438 609 28 12 1999 SF 102 355 93 20 2 34 91 83 73 62 262 389 617 15 2 |
|
I know a lot of people don't like this guy, but it's about
time we started talking about him as one of the all-time greats.
And I'm not talking about Tony Gwynn or Dave Winfield or Reggie
Jackson or Al Kaline; those guys are all great players, but Bonds
is in another class. I'm talking Willie Mays and Ted Williams and
Ty Cobb and whoever. What are his flaws? Compare him to Willie Mays; Mays hit .302 in his career, Bonds' career average is .288. Mays hit 660 homers, Bonds has 445 through age 35. Mays stole 338 bases; Bonds already has 460 steals. Getting on base? Bonds draws far more walks than Willie did. Defense? Bonds has eight Gold Gloves. Actually, with his walks, he's more of a cross between Mays and Mantle. 1999 was probably the first year of the decade in which you could not make a solid argument that Bonds was the league's best player. And yet, he was still amazing. He started super-hot, then missed two months with an elbow injury. He struggled a bit when he got back, then got super-hot again when the Giants made their final charge, before knee surgery finally ended his season. He finished with 34 homers in only 355 at bats. Bonds will be 36 next year. Mays at the same age had the first off-year of his career, hitting .263 with 22 homers. There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that Bonds' numbers will decline, but we'll have to wait and see. |
| ELLIS BURKS (OF, 36, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 COL 119 424 123 19 2 32 91 82 47 75 290 363 571 7 2 1998 COL-SF 142 504 147 28 6 21 76 76 58 111 292 365 496 11 8 1999 SF 120 390 110 19 0 31 73 96 69 86 282 394 569 7 5 |
| You already know all there is to know about Ellis, that he is a terrific player who keeps getting hurt. At age 36, it is unlikely that his health is suddenly going to improve. Burks should have another good year in 2000, but it's anybody's guess how often he will play. |
| JAY CANIZARO (IF, 27, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA-AAA 73 257 61 16 0 13 48 50 35 68 237 329 451 4 4 1998 AA-AAA 128 387 87 13 3 18 70 46 70 69 225 344 413 5 3 1999 AAA 105 364 102 20 2 26 76 78 49 79 280 366 560 16 5 |
| Canizaro never looked like much of a hitter until last year, when he had a power surge at Fresno. Chances are he won't hit enough in the majors to have a career, but he might suprise; there is a market for second basemen who can hit home runs. |
| RUSS DAVIS (3B, 31, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SEA 119 420 114 29 1 20 57 63 27 100 271 317 488 6 2 1998 SEA 141 502 130 30 1 20 68 82 34 134 259 305 442 4 3 1999 SEA 124 432 106 17 1 21 55 59 32 111 245 304 435 3 3 |
| He's in some trouble. He wants to be like Dean Palmer, but he only hits half as many home runs. Otherwise, he has a low batting average, a terrible K/BB ratio, no speed and bad defense. He has signed with the Giants, but I have to believe that they have some better options. |
| WILSON DELGADO (IF, 25, S) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 119 416 120 22 4 9 47 59 24 70 288 327 425 9 3 1998 AAA 127 512 142 22 2 12 87 65 52 92 277 344 398 9 5 |
| Delgado is a young middle infielder who can hit a little bit. There isn't a job available for him in San Francisco, and he's not good enough to force his way into the lineup. Delgado will probably last for several years as a bench player, but he will need some luck to get a regular starting job. |
| MIGUEL DEL TORO (28, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MEX 0 0 26 0 0 0 0 36 21 32 30 375 1998 MEX 9 4 39 10 0 0 5 92 81 44 56 382 1999 AAA 4 2 40 0 0 0 0 71 76 29 71 442 |
| Del Toro made his debut with the Pirates in 1992, and pitched well, but then disappeared off the radar screen. He returned from Mexico to pitch well last year, first in Fresno, and then San Francisco. He will have a job in 2000; there is no reason that he cannot continue to pitch well, except that his control might be a little shaky. |
| ALAN EMBREE (30, L) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ATL 3 1 66 0 0 0 0 46 36 20 45 254 1998 ATL-ARI 4 2 55 0 0 0 1 53 56 23 43 419 1999 SF 3 2 68 0 0 0 0 59 42 26 53 338 |
| Embree has now had three straight good years in the bullpen. He is left-handed, throws hard, has good control, and gets strikeouts. That's a combination that should keep him around for many more years. More of the same in 2000. |
| BOBBY ESTALELLA (CA, 26, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 123 433 101 32 0 16 63 65 56 109 233 321 418 3 0 1998 AAA 76 242 68 14 1 17 49 49 66 49 281 435 558 0 0 1999 AAA 110 386 89 23 2 15 58 62 55 100 231 330 417 4 1 |
| Estalella saw his fortunes go into a tailspin last year. After bombing with the Phillies in 1998, he returned to the minors, and again hit poorly. As well, Lieberthal has firmly taken control of the catcher's job in Philadelphia. Estalella is young enough to re-establish himself as a backup, but I will be surprised if he gets many at bats this year. |
| SHAWN ESTES (27, L) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SF 19 5 32 32 3 2 0 201 162 100 181 318 1998 SF 7 12 25 25 1 1 0 149 150 80 136 506 1999 SF 11 11 32 32 1 1 0 203 209 112 159 492 |
| After his great 1997 season, Estes has had a lot of problems getting hitters out. His control is worse than ever (he also threw a league-leading 15 wild pitches), and he can't overpower hitters anymore. He might make an adjustment... but he's got such a long way to go, that I wouldn't expect another good year from him until he is 30. |
| MARK GARDNER (38, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SF 12 9 30 30 2 1 0 180 188 57 136 429 1998 SF 13 6 33 33 4 2 0 212 203 65 151 433 1999 SF 5 11 29 21 1 0 0 139 142 57 86 647 |
| Everything was dramatically worse than in previous years. He is 38 years old, and there is nothing in his 1999 record that suggests he can still pitch. A comeback would be a major surprise. |
| LIVAN HERNANDEZ (25, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 FLO 9 3 17 17 0 0 0 96 81 38 72 318 1998 FLO 10 12 33 33 9 0 0 234 265 104 162 472 1999 FLO-SF 8 12 30 30 2 0 0 200 227 76 144 464 |
| He has had a couple of disappointing years, but he is healthy, and is still very young (on the other hand, his brother is rumoured to have lied about his age, so you have to wonder about Livan. Do you think this skepticism about the true ages of the Hernandez brothers is grounded in fact, or just stems from general mistrust of Cubans?) He is with a good team now, and he had a fine K/BB ratio last year. I expect him to be good. |
| JOHN JOHNSTONE (31, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SF-OAK 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 25 22 14 19 324 1998 SF 6 5 70 0 0 0 0 88 72 38 86 307 1999 SF 4 6 62 0 0 0 3 66 48 20 56 260 |
| Johnstone is an outstanding setup man who led the majors with 28 holds last season. It took him a long time to establish himself, but for the moment he is a very good pitcher. Has an outside chance at becoming a closer, if things break right. |
| JEFF KENT (2B, 32, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 155 580 145 38 2 29 90 121 48 133 250 316 472 11 3 1998 SF 137 526 156 37 3 31 94 128 48 110 297 359 555 9 4 1999 SF 138 511 148 40 2 23 86 101 61 112 290 366 511 13 6 |
| Kent is now officially the Gil Hodges of second basemen. Kent has had an interesting career, but he is now reaching the age where his production might tail off, or he may have to move to another position. But after three straight seasons of 100+ RBI, I see no reason why he shouldn't do it again. |
| RAMON MARTINEZ (IF, 27, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 105 404 129 32 4 5 72 54 40 48 319 381 455 4 5 1998 AAA 98 364 114 21 2 14 58 60 38 42 313 378 497 0 3 |
| Martinez was never much of a prospect until three years ago, when he started to hit. The Giants decided to give him a chance last season, and he continued to hit well. He is probably too old to ever play on a regular basis, but his bat should keep him around as a utility infielder for a few years. |
| DOUG MIRABELLI (CA, 29, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 100 332 88 23 2 8 49 48 55 69 265 370 419 1 2 1998 AAA 85 265 69 12 2 13 45 53 53 55 260 384 468 2 0 1999 AAA 86 320 100 24 1 14 63 51 48 56 313 398 525 8 2 |
| Another veteran minor league catcher who has been stuck at Triple-A since 1995. Mirabelli hit fairly well last season, and played well for San Francisco. He could be a second-or-third string catcher, and do the job about as well as anyone else. |
| BILL MUELLER (3B, 29, S) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 128 390 114 26 3 7 51 44 48 71 292 369 428 4 3 1998 SF 145 534 157 27 0 9 93 59 79 83 294 383 395 3 3 1999 SF 116 414 120 24 0 2 61 36 65 52 290 388 362 4 2 |
| Mueller is a very consistent player who hits for a good average, and does a fine job of getting on base. But his power numbers are going down, whereas everyone else's power numbers are going up. If he doesn't reverse this trend, he will be a bench player within a couple of seasons. |
| CALVIN MURRAY (OF, 29, R) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 122 419 114 25 3 10 83 56 66 73 272 371 418 52 6 1998 AA-AAA 121 427 125 25 6 11 79 44 70 63 293 392 457 37 16 1999 AAA 130 548 183 31 7 23 122 73 49 88 334 389 542 42 14 |
| Murray has paid his dues, toiling at Triple-A since 1993. He played very well at Fresno, and got his first major league at bats with the Giants. He can draw walks and steal bases, and last year hit for power. He's not going to be a regular, but has enough skills to be a good fourth outfielder if given the chance. |
| JOE NATHAN (25, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 2 1 18 5 0 0 2 62 53 26 44 247 1998 A 8 6 22 22 0 0 0 122 100 48 118 332 1999 AA-AAA 6 5 15 15 0 0 0 84 72 43 89 429 |
| Nathan made a big jump last year to the majors, and pitched well. He gets lots of strikeouts, and has shown good control in the lower minors. I expect him to develop into a very good pitcher, starting soon. |
| ROBB NEN (30, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 FLO 9 3 73 0 0 0 35 74 72 40 81 389 1998 SF 7 7 78 0 0 0 40 88 59 25 110 152 1999 SF 3 8 72 0 0 0 37 72 79 27 77 398 |
| Nen struggled a little last year, losing eight games and blowing nine saves. He tends to bounce up and down from year to year; he still throws hard and has very good control. He had surgery during the winter, so his immediate future is a little dicey; I expect that he will be back among the better closers in the league by mid-season. |
| RUSS ORTIZ (26, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA-AAA 6 6 26 26 0 0 0 142 148 71 120 494 |
| Ortiz had an impressive season, but I'm skeptical about him. His control was awful, and he doesn't strike out enough hitters to compensate. Unless his control suddenly improves, I suspect he will struggle to find himself the next couple of years, much like his teammate, Sean Estes. |
| FELIX RODRIGUEZ (27, R) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CIN 0 0 26 1 0 0 0 46 48 28 34 430 1998 ARI 0 2 43 0 0 0 5 44 44 29 36 614 1999 SF 2 3 47 0 0 0 0 66 67 29 55 380 |
| Rodriguez has pitched for four different teams in the last four seasons. Last year was a big improvement on 1998; he is a servicable middle reliever, not likely to get any better. |
| ARMANDO RIOS (OF, 29, L) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 127 461 133 30 6 14 86 79 63 85 289 374 471 17 7 1998 AAA 128 445 134 23 1 26 85 103 55 73 301 378 533 17 5 |
| After two strong years in the minors, Rios made the big club and continued to hit very well. It's taken him a long time to get this far, and I doubt he will ever get a chance to be a regular. But as long as he continues to hit, Rios should be a valuable fourth outfielder. Expect another good year in 2000. |
| KIRK RUETER (29, L) |
|---|
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SF 13 6 32 32 0 0 0 191 194 51 115 345 1998 SF 16 9 33 33 1 0 0 187 193 57 102 436 1999 SF 15 10 33 33 1 0 0 185 219 55 94 541 |
| Reuter had another winning record, despite the fact he did not pitch very well. He is now 70-39 lifetime; those are impressive numbers, but I am skeptical about him. He has declined badly for two straight seasons, and there isn't much evidence that he is going to suddenly improve. Not a good bet to last the season in the rotation. |
| J.T. SNOW (1B, 32, S) |
|---|
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 157 531 149 36 1 28 81 104 96 124 281 387 510 6 4 1998 SF 138 435 108 29 1 15 65 79 58 84 248 332 423 1 2 1999 SF 161 570 156 25 2 24 93 98 86 121 274 370 451 0 4 |
| Snow had his second solid season in the past three years. When he plays well he is a middle-of-the-pack first baseman; he can't hit lefties at all, and would be much more valuable as part of a platoon. He is also getting older, so the Giants would be wise to start cutting down on his at bats sooner rather than later. |
