SAN DIEGO PADRES
| 1999 was a rough year in San Diego. First, they lost a bunch of players who led them to the World Series in 1998; then they had a losing season. They were an ancient team two years ago, and are gradually bringing in some fresh faces. I like some of their young players, and the bullpen should be terrific. But the starting pitching is thin; Sterling Hitchcock is now their top starter, and he's not a good bet to win 20 games. The best thing the Padres have going for them is that they are in a weak division, but a return to the playoffs is still unlikely. |
| CARLOS ALMANZAR (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA-AAA 6 2 53 0 0 0 11 77 60 13 72 258 1998 AAA 3 6 30 0 0 0 10 51 44 13 53 231 |
| Almanzar has a proven ability to throw strikes, but so far has gotten the tar beat out of him in the major leagues. The Padres sent him to Triple-A, and he was even worse there. Either he has a problem with his arm, or his confidence is shot, or both. Almanzar has ability, but at this point he is a longshot to become an effective major league pitcher. |
| BRIAN BOEHRINGER (30, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 NYY 3 2 34 0 0 0 0 48 39 32 53 263 1998 SD 5 2 55 1 0 0 0 76 75 45 67 436 1999 SD 6 5 33 11 0 0 0 94 97 35 64 324 |
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Boehringer has dramatically improved his control the past two seasons,
and is coming off his best year. I think he is a solid middle reliever,
and has a chance to succeed as a setup man; the Padres may also give him
a starting job. My guess is, he is better off in the bullpen. ADDENDUM: Boehringer had shoulder surgery during the winter, but apparently will be ready this season. I think he is definitely better off in the bullpen. |
| BRET BOONE (2B, 31, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 139 443 99 25 1 7 40 46 45 101 223 298 332 5 5 1998 CIN 157 583 155 38 1 24 76 95 48 104 266 324 458 6 4 1999 ATL 152 608 153 38 1 20 102 63 47 112 252 310 416 14 9 |
| In 1998, Boone had a very well-timed offensive surge, improving his offensive output from "awful" to "ordinary". He was richly rewarded for this well-timed improvement, and got to play with the Braves. He took a step backwards, and has since been sent to San Diego. Boone is a fine defensive player, a can contribute a little bit with the bat, but his career will likely run into the ground within a couple of years. |
| BUDDY CARLYLE (22, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 14 5 23 23 4 0 0 145 130 27 111 277 1998 AA 14 6 27 27 2 1 0 184 179 46 97 338 1999 AAA 11 8 25 20 0 0 0 160 180 42 138 489 |
| He is a very young pitcher whom the Padres stuck in their rotation for a month. He didn't embarrass himself; Carlyle needs another year at Triple-A, but he looks like he should be a terrific pitcher in the long run. |
| MATT CLEMENT (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 6 3 14 14 2 1 0 101 74 31 109 160 1997 AA 6 5 13 13 1 0 0 88 83 32 92 256 1998 AAA 10 9 27 27 1 0 0 172 157 85 160 398 |
| He survived a full season in the Padres' rotation, and had a decent year. Clement's control is spotty, but otherwise his record is impressive; I think he is going to have a good career, and I would like to have him on my team in 2000. |
| WILL CUNNANE (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1998 AAA 1 2 33 0 0 0 0 36 45 19 30 525 1999 AAA 2 1 28 2 0 0 11 37 30 16 54 098 |
| He spent all of 1997 with the big club, but didn't pitch very well. In 1998 he strained his elbow early in the season, went to Las Vegas on rehab, and stayed there the whole season. He started last year at AAA, and rescued his career by pitching stunningly well. He is still young, and appears to be capable of having a career; I'm sure there is a team that will give him a chance to prove himself. |
| MIKE DARR (OF, 24, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 134 521 179 32 11 15 104 94 57 90 344 408 534 23 7 1998 AA 132 523 162 41 4 6 105 90 62 79 310 383 438 28 8 1999 AAA 100 383 114 34 0 10 57 62 50 103 298 384 465 10 3 |
| Darr is a young player who can run, hit for average and get on base. He may also have some power potential. Lord knows, the Padres need some good young players, so Darr should get ample opportunity to show what he can do. |
| BEN DAVIS (CA, 23, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 122 474 132 30 1 17 67 76 28 107 278 319 454 3 1 1998 AA 116 433 124 29 2 14 65 75 42 60 286 349 460 4 2 1999 AAA 58 201 62 18 1 7 27 44 24 41 308 384 512 4 1 |
| Davis is a very young catcher who got regular playing time with the Padres after scorching the ball in the minor leagues. He should be the #1 catcher in 2000; Davis has nothing left to prove in the minors, and the Padres desperately need good young players. Young catchers are never a sure thing, but Davis should have a good year, and he should be an All-Star within three years. |
| CHRIS GOMEZ (SS, 29, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SD 150 522 132 19 2 5 62 54 53 114 253 326 326 5 8 1998 SD 145 449 120 32 3 4 55 39 51 87 267 346 379 1 3 1999 SD 76 234 59 8 1 1 20 15 27 49 252 331 308 1 2 |
| Gomez has been a regular for several years now, but last year had a bad knee and lost playing time to Damian Jackson. I have never considered Gomez to be all that good a player; he doesn't do many things well, either at bat or in the field, and is a mediocre player at best. But he isn't old, and was playing in the World Series a year ago. He will probably be a regular somewhere in 2000. |
| WIKI GONZALEZ (CA, 26, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A-AA 80 253 72 16 2 9 33 51 17 32 285 330 470 2 2 1998 A-AA 97 359 110 33 2 14 71 85 40 58 306 376 526 0 0 1999 AA-AAA 86 320 101 22 2 16 51 61 34 38 316 381 547 0 0 |
| I normally don't like to combine A and AA numbers, but I figure that you don't need a detailed account of Gonzalez's snail-paced crawl through the Padres system. My guess is that they are teaching him to catch, because it appears that he can hit as well as most other catchers. I don't think he will ever be a regular, but he's capable of having a good year as a backup. |
| DOMINGO GUZMAN (25, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 4 5 12 12 5 0 0 79 66 25 91 319 1998 AA 5 2 12 8 0 0 1 48 51 26 39 450 1999 AA 1 2 41 0 0 0 6 51 60 25 38 547 |
| Guzman pitched in seven games with the Padres in 1999. He can't get hitters about at Mobile, and until he does I wouldn't expect him to make an impact in the majors any time soon. |
| TONY GWYNN (RF, 40, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SD 149 592 220 49 2 17 97 119 43 28 372 409 547 12 5 1998 SD 127 461 148 35 0 16 65 69 35 18 321 364 501 3 1 1999 SD 111 411 139 27 0 10 59 62 29 14 338 381 477 7 2 |
| Gwynn now has 3067 hits, and apparently is coming back for more. As he ages he is becoming increasingly injury prone, but otherwise there is no sign that he is going to stop hitting anytime soon. |
| CARLOS HERNANDEZ (CA, 33, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SD 50 134 42 7 1 3 15 14 3 27 313 328 448 0 2 1998 SD 129 390 102 15 0 9 34 52 16 54 262 305 369 2 2 1999 DID NOT PLAY |
| Hernandez is a veteran backup catcher who started to play on a regular basis in 1998, and wasn't bad. Last year, however, he missed the entire season with a ruptured achilles tendon. He is probably best suited to a backup role, with only 100-200 at bats in a season; even in such a limited role, I will be surprised if he hits well. |
| STERLING HITCHCOCK (29, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SD 10 11 32 28 1 0 0 161 172 55 106 520 1998 SD 9 7 39 27 2 1 1 176 169 48 158 393 1999 SD 12 14 33 33 1 0 0 206 202 76 194 411 |
| At exactly what time did Sterling Hitchcock emerge as a strikeout artist? It's taken a long time for Hitchcock to establish himself, and even last year he had a losing record... but he's a good pitcher, and can have a big year with a good team. I expect him to make a lot of money the next few years. |
| TREVOR HOFFMAN (32, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SD 6 4 70 0 0 0 37 81 59 24 111 266 1998 SD 4 2 66 0 0 0 53 73 41 21 86 148 1999 SD 2 3 64 0 0 0 40 67 48 15 73 214 |
| Ranks with Rivera as the best closer in baseball. Hoffman had about as good a year as you can expect from anyone last season; there is every reason to believe he will be back on top in 2000. |
| DAMIAN JACKSON (IF, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 73 266 78 12 0 4 51 13 37 45 293 380 383 20 - 1998 AAA 131 517 135 36 10 6 102 49 62 125 261 340 404 25 - |
| The Padres are Jackson's third team; he has also had short trials with the Indians and Reds. He can run, but he's not much of a hitter, and I doubt that he is going to improve much. He also committed 26 errors in the field. He is capable of hitting .260 in a season, and if he does he's not a bad player; chances are, he'll hang around as a backup for several years. |
| RYAN KLESKO (1B, 29, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 143 467 122 23 6 24 67 84 48 130 261 334 490 4 4 1998 ATL 129 427 117 29 1 18 69 70 56 66 274 358 473 5 3 1999 ATL 133 404 120 28 2 21 55 80 53 69 297 376 532 5 2 |
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Around 1995, Klesko looked for all the world like the new Boog Powell,
a guy who would be one of the scariest left-handed power hitters in the league
for a long time. Though Klesko has been a fine hitter, stardom has not been
in the cards. His career has been hampered by a chronic inability to hit
left-handed pitching; last year he hit only .102 off lefties. Despite Galaragga's
illness, Bobby Cox still wouldn't use Klesko as a regular, and you can't blame him. There's got to be some kind of mental block going on. We heard all about Chuck Knoblauch's inability to throw the ball to first; the same must be true of Klesko and left-handed pitching. Not only is he not improving, he seems to be getting worse. He has been traded to San Diego, and it is probably the best thing for him; he needs a new team and a new manager and a new hitting coach, and they can all work together and try to salvage whatever chance at stardom Klesko has left. |
| CARLTON LOEWER (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AAA 5 13 29 29 4 0 0 184 198 50 152 460 1998 AAA 7 3 12 12 5 2 0 94 89 22 69 287 |
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After two years in the starting rotation, Loewer still isn't a very
good pitcher. But he has good control, and wasn't awful last season. I
think he can have a good year, maybe win 12-14 games. ADDENDUM: Loewer broke his leg during a winter hunting expedition. I don't expect that we will see much of him in 2000. |
| DAVE MAGADAN (3B, 38, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 OAK 128 271 82 10 1 4 38 30 50 40 303 414 391 1 0 1998 OAK 35 109 35 8 0 1 12 13 13 12 321 390 422 0 1 1999 SD 116 248 68 12 1 2 20 30 45 36 274 377 355 1 3 |
| Magadan debuted with the Mets in 1986, and now has 14 years under his belt. A career .392 on-base percentage has kept him in the league; he is a valuable player on the bench, can be used in a platoon and is also an experienced pinch hitter. He is also 38 years old, so he doesn't have many years left. |
| AL MARTIN (CA, 32, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 PIT 113 423 123 24 7 13 64 59 45 83 291 359 473 23 7 1998 PIT 125 440 105 15 2 12 57 47 32 91 239 296 364 20 3 1999 PIT 143 541 150 36 8 24 97 63 49 119 277 337 506 20 3 |
| Martin had a fine comeback season with the Pirates. He has been a good player for several years now; he's a career .280 hitter, hits for some power, and has five straight seasons with 20+ stolen bases. He's not a star, but he should have a couple of more quality years left. |
| GARY MATTHEWS JR (OF, 26, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 69 268 81 15 4 8 66 40 49 57 302 410 478 10 4 1998 AA 72 254 78 15 4 7 62 51 55 50 307 430 480 11 1 1999 AAA 121 422 108 22 3 9 57 52 58 104 256 352 386 17 6 |
| The son of The Sarge, Matthews is a prospect with the Padres. He didn't play very well at Las Vegas last season, and he is not a young pup; I think Matthews has some skills, and could help a team as a fourth outfielder, but he is not going to be a regular. |
| BRIAN MEADOWS (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 9 7 29 29 4 0 0 176 204 48 115 461 |
| After two full seasons in the starting rotation, Meadows still does not look like much of a pitcher. I'm not surprised; he was rushed to the minors, despite the fact he had struggled at Portland. Meadows is young and healthy, but otherwise there is nothing in his record that suggests he is going to improve in 2000. |
| STEVE MONTGOMERY (29, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AAA 3 3 37 0 0 0 4 55 73 20 43 573 1998 AAA 4 6 51 4 0 0 8 88 79 24 66 440 |
| Montgomery's first full year in the majors was a pretty good one. He has no chance to be anything more than a middle reliever, but he should have a couple of solid seasons in that role. |
| RANDY MYERS (38, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 BAL 2 3 61 0 0 0 45 60 47 22 56 151 1998 TOR-SD 4 7 62 0 0 0 28 57 59 26 41 492 1999 DID NOT PITCH |
| He's back.... in 1999 Myers entered spring training late and overweight, then disappeared off of the radar map. Apparently, he had his shoulder repaired. Now he's back, and apparently has kept fit and wants a job; the Padres owe him six million dollars, so they will give him an opportunity. He's been a good pitcher in the past, and might have another solid season left in him. |
| PHIL NEVIN (CA/3B/OF, 29, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 DET 93 251 59 16 1 9 32 35 25 68 235 306 414 0 1 1998 ANA 75 237 54 8 1 8 27 27 17 67 228 291 371 0 0 1999 SD 128 383 103 27 0 24 52 85 51 82 269 352 527 1 0 |
| The Houston Astros once made him the top draft pick in the country. Since then, his career has been a colossal disappointment, with failures in numerous cities. Last year, however, Nevin found his power stroke, and had a fine year for San Diego. I wouldn't bet on him to continue to succeed, but a power hitter who can play several positions can have a long career and make a lot of money. |
| DAVID NEWHAN (2B, 27, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 57 212 67 13 2 5 40 35 28 59 316 396 467 5 5 1998 AA 121 491 128 26 3 12 89 45 68 110 261 351 399 27 8 1999 AAA 98 374 107 25 1 14 49 49 30 84 286 339 471 22 4 |
| Newhan got some at bats with the Padres. He has power and some speed, and can hit a little. He plays all over the infield; he should be a decent utility infielder if he gets the chance. |
| ERIC OWENS (IF/OF, 29, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 104 391 112 15 4 11 56 44 42 55 286 356 430 23 - 1998 AAA 77 254 85 11 4 5 45 48 40 34 335 425 469 21 - |
| Against all odds, Owens played on a regular basis last year, further proof that you just never know. He can run like the wind, and play almost every position in the field. If he keeps his average above .260 he is a valuable utility player; has about a 50/50 chance of continuing his success in 2000. |
| RUBEN RIVERA (CF, 26, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 SD 95 172 36 7 2 6 31 29 28 52 209 325 378 5 1 1999 SD 147 411 80 16 1 23 65 48 55 143 195 295 406 18 7 |
| A young centre fielder with power and speed, Rivera was once compared to Mickey Mantle when he was a Yankee prospect. He would be a good player if he could hit .250, but he is a long way from there at the moment. My guess is that he is not going to turn things around, and will not become a quality player. He has to make major adjustments, and won't get many more chances. |
| DAN SERAFINI (26, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MIN 2 1 6 4 1 0 0 26 27 11 15 342 1998 MIN 7 4 28 9 0 0 0 75 95 29 46 648 1999 CHC 3 2 42 4 0 0 1 62 86 32 17 693 |
| Serafini had his second straight poor season; he walked almost twice as many batters as he struck out, and that is not promising. I wouldn't expect much from him in the future. |
| DONNE WALL (33, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 HOU 2 5 8 8 0 0 0 42 53 16 25 626 1998 SD 5 4 45 1 0 0 1 70 50 32 56 243 1999 SD 7 4 55 0 0 0 0 70 58 23 53 307 |
| The Wailing Wall had his second straight outstanding season for the Padres. Time is not on his side, and he probably is never going to be a closer, but at the moment he is a terrific middle reliever. |
| MATT WHISENANT (29, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 FLO-KC 1 0 28 0 0 0 0 22 19 18 20 457 1998 KC 2 1 70 0 0 0 2 61 61 33 45 490 1999 KC-SD 4 5 67 0 0 0 1 54 50 36 37 563 |
| Whisenant is a lefty, and the good news is that he held left-handers to a .220 average. The bad news is that his control is terrible, and he didn't do a good job overall. He has a job, but there are many other left-handers out there, and I suspect that Whisenant will be quickly replaced unless he starts throwing strikes. |
| WOODY WILLIAMS (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 TOR 9 14 31 31 0 0 0 195 201 66 124 435 1998 TOR 10 9 32 32 1 1 0 209 196 81 151 446 1999 SD 12 12 33 33 0 0 0 208 213 73 137 441 |
| The Padres acquired Williams from Toronto in exchange for Joey Hamilton; it turned out to be an astute deal. Williams has had a surprising career; he spent many years in the minors before getting his shot, and is now a solid, durable pitcher. He is, however, prone to giving up the home run; last year he was touched for 33 dingers. I would expect one more year of similar performance |