MONTREAL EXPOS
| As usual, the Expos are loaded with some terrific young players. They also have a new owner, a little extra spending money, and a new ballpark on the horizon. Things are looking up, but they probably won't be a good team this year. IF all of the young players take a step forward and IF the young pitchers avoid injuries and IF Vlad Guerrero wins an MVP Award and IF the bullpen holds together, then they might have a decent year. Should be a fun team to watch, though. |
| MICHAEL BARRETT (CA/3B, 23, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 119 423 120 30 0 8 52 61 36 49 284 340 411 7 4 1998 AA 120 453 145 32 2 19 78 87 27 43 320 358 525 7 6 |
| At age 22, Barrett skipped Triple-A and entered the Expos' lineup full time. He played very well, and has a very bright future. He may struggle a bit in 2000, because he has a couple of things to figure out. First, whether he is a catcher or a third baseman. He split his time evenly between the two positions last year; considering his offensive potential, the Expos should probably just put him at third base. Barrett will also have to decide if he's a power hitter; my guess is that his power will mature in a couple of years, and that he will average 15-20 homers a year, to go along with a .300 average. |
| MIGUEL BATISTA (29, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CHC 0 5 11 6 0 0 0 36 36 24 27 570 1998 MON 3 5 56 13 0 0 0 135 141 65 92 380 1999 MON 8 7 39 17 2 1 1 135 146 58 95 488 |
| Batista had almost identical numbers to 1998, except that his ERA went up a run; go figure. He's not really a very good pitcher; he's not improving, and there isn't much evidence that he is going to improve. He's a stopgap in the rotation, until the Expos can find someone better. |
| PETER BERGERON (OF, 22, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 131 492 138 18 5 5 89 36 67 110 280 367 368 32 21 1998 AA 143 550 165 25 12 8 103 63 78 95 300 388 433 41 12 1999 AAA 58 194 61 12 3 3 36 20 23 40 314 386 454 14 8 |
| Bergeron is a prospect with the Expos, hit .244 in 45 at bats with Montreal last year. He has played in six different cities the past three seasons, and it is difficult to get a read on how good he is. He appears to be a .300 hitter with good plate discipline, very good speed, and some power potential. He is only 22; in other words, he is yet another outstanding Expo prospect. |
| BRENT BILLINGSLEY (25, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 14 7 26 26 3 1 0 171 146 50 175 301 1998 AA 6 13 28 28 0 0 0 171 172 70 183 374 1999 AAA 2 9 21 21 0 0 0 117 133 48 79 555 |
| A prospect with Florida, Billingsley had looked like a terrific young pitcher until he hit Triple-A. I don't know if he had any arm problems; if he did, then obviously his future is limited. If he was just going through a rough spell, then he still has some potential to turn things around in 2000. A dark horse to have a good year. |
| GEOFF BLUM (SS, 27, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 118 407 101 21 2 3 59 35 52 73 248 333 332 14 6 1998 AA 39 139 43 12 3 6 25 21 17 24 309 400 568 2 1 1999 AAA 77 268 71 14 1 10 43 37 37 39 265 350 437 6 1 |
| Blum had a disastrous 1998 season, in which his career shifted into reverse. He got back on track last year, and played fairly well for Montreal, but he is too old to have any chance at being a regular. If he can keep hitting home runs, he could stick around a few years. But he also has to convince his manager that he is reliable, and he made 10 errors in only 42 games last year. |
| ORLANDO CABRERA (SS, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 MON 79 261 73 16 5 3 44 22 18 27 280 325 414 6 2 1999 MON 104 382 97 23 5 8 48 39 18 38 254 293 403 2 2 |
| Cabrera is young, and appears to be a pretty good defensive player. His hitting was a disappointment last year, but he might improve in that regard. I don't think he has star potential; he will be an average regular for a couple of seasons, then will likely spend most of his career as a backup. |
| TRACE COQUILLETTE (IF, 26, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 81 293 76 17 3 10 46 51 25 40 259 345 440 9 4 1998 AA-AAA 123 439 126 24 0 16 70 63 32 79 287 350 451 13 6 1999 AAA 98 334 109 32 3 14 56 55 44 68 326 434 566 10 4 |
| Coquillette is a young player with Montreal; he wasted much of his youth underachieving in the lower minors, but last year gave his career a shot in the arm by smoking the ball at Ottawa. He is too old to be considered a good prospect, but there is plenty of opportunity in Montreal. He should get some at bats, probably will never be a regular. Has a knack for getting hit by pitches. |
| VLADIMIR GUERRERO (RF, 24, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MON 90 325 98 22 2 11 44 40 19 39 302 350 483 3 4 1998 MON 159 623 202 37 7 38 108 109 42 95 324 371 589 11 9 1999 MON 160 610 193 37 5 42 102 131 55 62 316 378 600 14 7 |
|
Bill James has written occasionally about young players who have
"old player" skills, and others who have "young player" skills. The ones
with "old player" skills usually hit lots of home runs, draw
lots of walks, are very slow, and have minimal defensive value. These
players are very valuable early in their careers, but they have little growth
potential, and they usually do not age well. Think of Kent Hrbek, Boog Powell,
Eddie Mathews, Jimmie Foxx... Players with "young player" skills are usually great athletes (or "five- tool" players, as the scouts like to say), but are also unrefined. Their power is undeveloped, they swing at anything, they are fast and play demanding defensive positions but they also make mistakes. These players can give you headaches early in their careers, but they have enormous growth potential. Think of Sammy Sosa, Roberto Clemente... It's a generalization, of course. The point I'm trying to make is that Guerrero is a very unrefined player with tremendous growth potential... but he is already one of the best players in baseball! Vladimir swings at pitches over his head, doesn't make full use of his speed, made 19(!!) errors in the outfield. You watch him play, and half the time he looks like a discombobulated mess... but he has unbelievable raw talent, and likely will continue to improve as he ages. No record is safe. |
| WILTON GUERRERO (IF, 25, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 LA 111 357 104 10 9 4 39 32 8 52 291 305 403 6 5 1998 LA-MON 116 402 114 14 9 2 50 27 14 63 284 307 378 8 2 1999 MON 132 315 92 15 7 2 42 31 13 38 292 324 403 7 6 |
| Vladimir's older brother is still fairly young. There is no doubt that Wilton can hit for average, and will probably be a .300 hitter in the future. Everything else is a negative; he has little power, no strike zone judgment, and he doesn't steal bases. He's a poor defensive second baseman, but doesn't hit nearly enough to be an outfielder. So he can hit .300, and that will probably keep him around a few years... but I don't think he's a very good player, and I don't see him getting much better. |
| DUSTIN HERMANSON (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MON 8 8 32 28 1 1 0 158 134 66 136 369 1998 MON 14 11 32 30 1 0 0 187 163 56 154 313 1999 MON 9 14 34 34 0 0 0 216 225 69 145 420 |
| All things considered, he pitched pretty well, but his team stuck him with a poor record. He was a reliever when he was acquired by the Expos, but Felipe Alou needed another starter, and Hermanson has been another one of Alou's typically successful projects. He is young, he has a great K/BB ratio, his durability is improving... chances are he will be traded sometime during the season, and he is capable of having a big year with the right club. |
| HIDECKI IRABU (31, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 NYY 5 4 13 9 0 0 0 53 69 20 56 709 1998 NYY 13 9 29 28 2 1 0 173 148 76 126 406 1999 NYY 11 7 32 27 2 1 0 169 180 46 133 484 |
|
Irabu was highly touted when he came to the West, and demanded that he
play only for the Yankees. Steinbrenner anted up a hefty price, but Irabu
didn't put up the numbers. Now, The Boss has exacted revenge, dealing Irabu
to... Montreal. It's probably the best thing for him. Dennis Martinez made a comeback in Montreal; so did Pascual Perez and Oil Can Boyd. He's a longshot, but I would not be surprised if Felipe Alou managed to get a good year out of Irabu. |
| MIKE JOHNSON (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 BAL-MON 2 6 25 16 0 0 2 90 106 37 57 683 |
| Johnson appeared in three games with Montreal last season. He was rushed to the majors when he was 21 years old, and three years later he is not close to being a quality pitcher. Johnson is still young, and I think he has the stuff to succeed, but don't look for him to make an impact for at least a couple more seasons. |
| STEVE KLINE (28, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CLE-MON 4 4 46 1 0 0 0 52 73 23 37 598 1998 MON 3 6 78 0 0 0 1 71 62 41 76 276 1999 MON 7 4 82 0 0 0 0 70 56 33 69 375 |
| Kline is a very hard-working lefty out of the bullpen, and a good one, too. I think his chances of remaining effective are very good as long as Felipe Alou is his manager, perhaps not so good if he gets traded. But he should last a long time in his role. |
| TED LILLY (24, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 7 8 23 21 2 1 0 135 116 32 158 281 1998 AA 8 4 17 17 0 0 0 112 114 37 96 330 1999 AAA 8 5 16 14 0 0 0 89 81 23 78 384 |
| Lilly is an outstanding young pitcher whom the Dodgers gave away to the Expos a year ago. Expect him to be in the rotation this season; it may take a while for him to get settled, but his future looks great. |
| GRAEME LLOYD (33, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 NYY 1 1 46 0 0 0 1 49 55 20 26 331 1998 NYY 3 0 50 0 0 0 0 37 26 6 20 167 1999 TOR 5 3 74 0 0 0 3 72 68 23 47 363 |
| Lloyd was the main man in Toronto's bullpen, and set a career high in almost everything. He pitched very well, and he is equally effective against both lefties and righties. His success should continue for several more years. |
| MANNY MARTINEZ (CF, 29, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 PIT 73 180 45 11 2 6 21 24 9 44 250 290 433 0 3 1999 MON 137 331 81 12 7 2 48 26 17 51 245 279 341 19 6 |
| Martinez is a minor league veteran who actually got some regular playing time with the Expos. He can run, but he doesn't do anything else well at the plate. I can't see him ever getting playing on a regular basis again; he might be able to stick as a spare outfielder/pinch runner. |
| MIKE MORDECAI (IF, 32, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 61 81 14 2 1 0 8 3 6 16 173 227 222 0 1 1998 MON 73 119 24 4 2 3 12 10 9 20 202 258 345 1 0 1999 MON 109 226 53 10 2 5 29 25 20 31 235 297 363 2 5 |
| Mordecai is a veteran utility man who set a career high in almost everything. He isn't any kind of hitter; his only value is his ability to play all over the field. Expect his playing time to decrease considerably. |
| GUILLERMO MOTA (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 5 10 25 23 0 0 0 126 135 33 112 436 1998 A 3 2 20 0 0 0 2 41 18 6 27 066 |
| Mota has pitched brilliantly ever since moving to the bullpen in 1998. He had a great rookie season, and should be an outstanding pitcher for the next few years. He's with the right team, and the right manager. |
| CARL PAVANO (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AAA 11 6 23 23 3 0 0 162 148 34 147 312 |
| Pavano is an outstanding young pitcher whom the Expos acquired in the deal that sent Pedro Martinez to Boston. Pavano's ERA shot up last year, though I am not sure why. I suspect that it was a fluke, and that he will be much better in 2000. He is both young and healthy, and has star potential. |
| JEREMY POWELL (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 9 10 26 26 1 0 0 155 162 62 121 302 1998 AA 9 7 22 22 1 0 0 132 115 37 77 301 1999 AAA 3 5 16 16 0 0 0 91 85 37 72 297 |
| Powell is a young pitcher with Montreal who has looked good in the minors, but has struggled with the Expos. He will be a good pitcher someday, but probably not this season; he still needs to learn to throw strikes to major league hitters. |
| FERNANDO SEGUIGNOL (1B, 25, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 124 456 116 27 5 18 70 83 30 129 254 299 454 5 5 1998 AA-AAA 112 390 109 21 0 31 70 85 41 120 279 357 572 6 1 1999 AAA 87 312 89 17 3 23 54 74 40 96 285 381 580 3 7 |
| A young Expos' prospect, Seguignol has hit with awesome power the past two seasons at Ottawa, and also played very well last year with Montreal. At the very least he will be a good part-time player, and could hit 30 homers if he plays regularly. |
| J.D. SMART (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 6 3 12 12 0 0 0 71 75 24 43 369 1998 AA 3 5 14 11 2 0 1 77 67 18 47 245 |
| Smart has pitched very well in the minors, and had a decent rookie season for Montreal last year. He should start the year in long relief, but if he is pitching well and striking out more batters, then he could probably be moved to the starting rotation with satisfactory results. |
| LEE STEVENS (1B, 33, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 TEX 137 426 128 24 2 21 58 74 23 83 300 336 514 1 3 1998 TEX 120 344 91 17 4 20 52 59 31 93 265 324 512 0 2 1999 TEX 146 517 146 31 1 24 76 81 52 132 282 344 485 2 3 |
|
With Palmeiro's knees hurting, Stevens was able to play almost the
whole year at first base, and had his best season. He took a while to
establish himself, but has now has three straight good years, and is
a solid player. He will probably go into decline within a couple of
seasons; for the moment, he is about average among AL first basemen. ADDENDUM: Stevens has been dealt to Montreal. He probably won't make an appearance in the playoffs, but he will remain average among NL first basemen. |
| SCOTT STRICKLAND (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 5 3 18 10 1 0 1 67 64 21 77 403 1998 A 4 6 37 13 0 0 6 105 100 32 104 376 1999 AAA 3 0 19 0 0 0 5 28 23 11 34 163 |
| Strickland began the season with short stints in A-Ball and Double-A, and was overpowering in the lower minors. He moved up to Ottawa. and then to Montreal, and remained overpowering. For the first time, he was used almost exclusively as a reliever, and the bullpen should probably remain his home. Looks great for the future. |
| ANTHONY TELFORD (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MON 4 6 65 0 0 0 1 89 77 33 61 324 1998 MON 3 6 77 0 0 0 1 91 85 36 59 386 1999 MON 5 4 79 0 0 0 2 96 112 38 69 394 |
| Telford had his third straight solid season in relief. There isn't an obvious reason for his success; his control is not great, and last year he gave up a lot of hits, though he surrendered only three homers. Montreal is a great place to pitch, and Telford may have another solid season; but in view of his advancing age, I would not want to depend on him. When he starts to slip, he will be gone quickly. |
| MIKE THURMAN (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MON 1 0 5 2 0 0 0 12 8 4 8 540 1998 MON 4 5 14 13 0 0 0 67 60 26 32 470 1999 MON 7 11 29 27 0 0 0 147 140 52 85 405 |
| Thurman spent a full year in Montreal's rotation, and pitched pretty well. He is still young, has good control, and has the right manager behind him. If he learns to strike out a few more batters, I like his chances for success in the future. |
| UGUETH URBINA (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MON 5 8 63 0 0 0 27 64 52 29 84 378 1998 MON 6 3 64 0 0 0 34 69 37 33 94 130 1999 MON 6 6 71 0 0 0 41 76 59 36 100 369 |
|
Urbina had a bit of an off-year by his own standards, but still led
the league in saves, and remains one of the best closers in the game. He
overpowers hitters, and increases his workload each season; he should
remain outstanding for several more seasons. Incidentally, another argument you can dismiss is the one about closers getting more saves with good teams. Good closers with bad teams consistently ring up big save totals; the Expos were very bad last year, but Urbina led the league in both saves and save opportunities. |
| JAVIER VAZQUEZ (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A-AA 10 3 25 25 2 0 0 155 113 40 147 186 |
| Vazquez wasn't very good, but was much better than he was in 1998. He is very young, and pitched brilliantly in the lower minors, though he was rushed to the big club. I like him a lot; he has good control, gets strikeouts, has stayed healthy, and made improvements in almost every area of his game. Look for him to be above-average in 2000. |
| JOSE VIDRO (2B, 26, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MON 67 169 42 12 1 2 19 17 11 20 249 297 367 1 0 1998 MON 83 205 45 12 0 0 24 18 27 33 220 318 278 2 2 1999 MON 140 494 150 45 2 12 67 59 29 51 304 346 476 0 4 |
| Vidro's third year with the Expos was a huge improvement. He's a terrific young player who should continue to play well, and may take another step forward as a hitter. He's an adequate defensive player, but doesn't have much speed; he may wind up at third base, but he has enough power potential to play there, too. |
| RONDELL WHITE (CF, 28, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MON 151 592 160 29 5 28 84 82 31 111 270 316 478 16 8 1998 MON 97 357 107 21 2 17 54 58 30 57 300 363 513 16 7 1999 MON 138 539 168 26 6 22 83 64 32 85 312 359 505 10 6 |
| Rondell had one of his healthiest seasons, despite missing 24 games. He is a good player, not a star, hits .300 with some power and speed. He probably has a year in his future when he will stay healthy and bust loose with a career year; otherwise, the remainder of his career will likely remain mostly injury-plagued. He might also be traded at some time this season. |
| CHRIS WIDGER (CA, 29, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MON 91 278 65 20 3 7 30 37 22 59 234 290 403 2 0 1998 MON 125 417 97 18 1 15 36 53 29 85 233 281 388 6 1 1999 MON 124 383 101 24 1 14 42 56 28 86 264 325 441 1 4 |
| The Expos' regular catcher, Widger had his first good year with the bat. It was probably a career year, and his numbers will take a bit of a tumble this season. He hits left-handers very well, and would be more valuable as part of a platoon. |
