MONTREAL EXPOS


      As usual, the Expos are loaded with some terrific young players. They also have a new owner, a little extra spending money, and a new ballpark on the horizon. Things are looking up, but they probably won't be a good team this year. IF all of the young players take a step forward and IF the young pitchers avoid injuries and IF Vlad Guerrero wins an MVP Award and IF the bullpen holds together, then they might have a decent year. Should be a fun team to watch, though.

 
MICHAEL BARRETT (CA/3B, 23, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997       A 119 423 120 30  0  8  52  61  36  49  284 340 411   7   4

 1998      AA 120 453 145 32  2 19  78  87  27  43  320 358 525   7   6


1999 MON 126 433 127 32 3 8 53 52 32 39 293 345 436 0 2

 
      At age 22, Barrett skipped Triple-A and entered the Expos' lineup full time. He played very well, and has a very bright future. He may struggle a bit in 2000, because he has a couple of things to figure out. First, whether he is a catcher or a third baseman. He split his time evenly between the two positions last year; considering his offensive potential, the Expos should probably just put him at third base. Barrett will also have to decide if he's a power hitter; my guess is that his power will mature in a couple of years, and that he will average 15-20 homers a year, to go along with a .300 average.

 
MIGUEL BATISTA (29, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     CHC   0   5  11  6  0  0  0  36  36  24  27 570

 1998     MON   3   5  56 13  0  0  0 135 141  65  92 380

 1999     MON   8   7  39 17  2  1  1 135 146  58  95 488


 
      Batista had almost identical numbers to 1998, except that his ERA went up a run; go figure. He's not really a very good pitcher; he's not improving, and there isn't much evidence that he is going to improve. He's a stopgap in the rotation, until the Expos can find someone better.

 
PETER BERGERON (OF, 22, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997       A 131 492 138 18  5  5  89  36  67 110  280 367 368  32  21

 1998      AA 143 550 165 25 12  8 103  63  78  95  300 388 433  41  12

 1999     AAA  58 194  61 12  3  3  36  20  23  40  314 386 454  14   8


 
      Bergeron is a prospect with the Expos, hit .244 in 45 at bats with Montreal last year. He has played in six different cities the past three seasons, and it is difficult to get a read on how good he is. He appears to be a .300 hitter with good plate discipline, very good speed, and some power potential. He is only 22; in other words, he is yet another outstanding Expo prospect.

 
BRENT BILLINGSLEY (25, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997       A  14   7  26 26  3  1  0 171 146  50 175 301

 1998      AA   6  13  28 28  0  0  0 171 172  70 183 374

 1999     AAA   2   9  21 21  0  0  0 117 133  48  79 555


 
      A prospect with Florida, Billingsley had looked like a terrific young pitcher until he hit Triple-A. I don't know if he had any arm problems; if he did, then obviously his future is limited. If he was just going through a rough spell, then he still has some potential to turn things around in 2000. A dark horse to have a good year.

 
GEOFF BLUM (SS, 27, S)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA 118 407 101 21  2  3  59  35  52  73  248 333 332  14   6

 1998      AA  39 139  43 12  3  6  25  21  17  24  309 400 568   2   1

 1999     AAA  77 268  71 14  1 10  43  37  37  39  265 350 437   6   1


1999 MON 45 133 32 7 2 8 21 18 17 25 241 327 504 1 0

 
      Blum had a disastrous 1998 season, in which his career shifted into reverse. He got back on track last year, and played fairly well for Montreal, but he is too old to have any chance at being a regular. If he can keep hitting home runs, he could stick around a few years. But he also has to convince his manager that he is reliable, and he made 10 errors in only 42 games last year.

 
ORLANDO CABRERA (SS, 25, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1998     MON  79 261  73 16  5  3  44  22  18  27  280 325 414   6   2

 1999     MON 104 382  97 23  5  8  48  39  18  38  254 293 403   2   2


 
      Cabrera is young, and appears to be a pretty good defensive player. His hitting was a disappointment last year, but he might improve in that regard. I don't think he has star potential; he will be an average regular for a couple of seasons, then will likely spend most of his career as a backup.

 
TRACE COQUILLETTE (IF, 26, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      AA  81 293  76 17  3 10  46  51  25  40  259 345 440   9   4

 1998  AA-AAA 123 439 126 24  0 16  70  63  32  79  287 350 451  13   6

 1999     AAA  98 334 109 32  3 14  56  55  44  68  326 434 566  10   4


 
      Coquillette is a young player with Montreal; he wasted much of his youth underachieving in the lower minors, but last year gave his career a shot in the arm by smoking the ball at Ottawa. He is too old to be considered a good prospect, but there is plenty of opportunity in Montreal. He should get some at bats, probably will never be a regular. Has a knack for getting hit by pitches.

 
VLADIMIR GUERRERO (RF, 24, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     MON  90 325  98 22  2 11  44  40  19  39  302 350 483   3   4

 1998     MON 159 623 202 37  7 38 108 109  42  95  324 371 589  11   9

 1999     MON 160 610 193 37  5 42 102 131  55  62  316 378 600  14   7


 
      Bill James has written occasionally about young players who have "old player" skills, and others who have "young player" skills. The ones with "old player" skills usually hit lots of home runs, draw lots of walks, are very slow, and have minimal defensive value. These players are very valuable early in their careers, but they have little growth potential, and they usually do not age well. Think of Kent Hrbek, Boog Powell, Eddie Mathews, Jimmie Foxx...
      Players with "young player" skills are usually great athletes (or "five- tool" players, as the scouts like to say), but are also unrefined. Their power is undeveloped, they swing at anything, they are fast and play demanding defensive positions but they also make mistakes. These players can give you headaches early in their careers, but they have enormous growth potential. Think of Sammy Sosa, Roberto Clemente...
      It's a generalization, of course. The point I'm trying to make is that Guerrero is a very unrefined player with tremendous growth potential... but he is already one of the best players in baseball! Vladimir swings at pitches over his head, doesn't make full use of his speed, made 19(!!) errors in the outfield. You watch him play, and half the time he looks like a discombobulated mess... but he has unbelievable raw talent, and likely will continue to improve as he ages. No record is safe.

 
WILTON GUERRERO (IF, 25, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      LA 111 357 104 10  9  4  39  32   8  52  291 305 403   6   5

 1998  LA-MON 116 402 114 14  9  2  50  27  14  63  284 307 378   8   2

 1999     MON 132 315  92 15  7  2  42  31  13  38  292 324 403   7   6


 
      Vladimir's older brother is still fairly young. There is no doubt that Wilton can hit for average, and will probably be a .300 hitter in the future. Everything else is a negative; he has little power, no strike zone judgment, and he doesn't steal bases. He's a poor defensive second baseman, but doesn't hit nearly enough to be an outfielder. So he can hit .300, and that will probably keep him around a few years... but I don't think he's a very good player, and I don't see him getting much better.

 
DUSTIN HERMANSON (27, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     MON   8   8  32 28  1  1  0 158 134  66 136 369

 1998     MON  14  11  32 30  1  0  0 187 163  56 154 313

 1999     MON   9  14  34 34  0  0  0 216 225  69 145 420


 
      All things considered, he pitched pretty well, but his team stuck him with a poor record. He was a reliever when he was acquired by the Expos, but Felipe Alou needed another starter, and Hermanson has been another one of Alou's typically successful projects. He is young, he has a great K/BB ratio, his durability is improving... chances are he will be traded sometime during the season, and he is capable of having a big year with the right club.

 
HIDECKI IRABU (31, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     NYY   5   4  13  9  0  0  0  53  69  20  56 709

 1998     NYY  13   9  29 28  2  1  0 173 148  76 126 406

 1999     NYY  11   7  32 27  2  1  0 169 180  46 133 484


 
      Irabu was highly touted when he came to the West, and demanded that he play only for the Yankees. Steinbrenner anted up a hefty price, but Irabu didn't put up the numbers. Now, The Boss has exacted revenge, dealing Irabu to... Montreal.
      It's probably the best thing for him. Dennis Martinez made a comeback in Montreal; so did Pascual Perez and Oil Can Boyd. He's a longshot, but I would not be surprised if Felipe Alou managed to get a good year out of Irabu.

 
MIKE JOHNSON (24, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997 BAL-MON   2   6  25 16  0  0  2  90 106  37  57 683


1999 AAA 6 12 29 24 0 0 0 147 174 63 120 538

 
      Johnson appeared in three games with Montreal last season. He was rushed to the majors when he was 21 years old, and three years later he is not close to being a quality pitcher. Johnson is still young, and I think he has the stuff to succeed, but don't look for him to make an impact for at least a couple more seasons.

 
STEVE KLINE (28, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997 CLE-MON   4   4  46  1  0  0  0  52  73  23  37 598

 1998     MON   3   6  78  0  0  0  1  71  62  41  76 276

 1999     MON   7   4  82  0  0  0  0  70  56  33  69 375


 
      Kline is a very hard-working lefty out of the bullpen, and a good one, too. I think his chances of remaining effective are very good as long as Felipe Alou is his manager, perhaps not so good if he gets traded. But he should last a long time in his role.

 
TED LILLY (24, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997       A   7   8  23 21  2  1  0 135 116  32 158 281

 1998      AA   8   4  17 17  0  0  0 112 114  37  96 330

 1999     AAA   8   5  16 14  0  0  0  89  81  23  78 384


1999 MON 0 1 9 3 0 0 0 24 30 9 28 761

 
      Lilly is an outstanding young pitcher whom the Dodgers gave away to the Expos a year ago. Expect him to be in the rotation this season; it may take a while for him to get settled, but his future looks great.

 
GRAEME LLOYD (33, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     NYY   1   1  46  0  0  0  1  49  55  20  26 331

 1998     NYY   3   0  50  0  0  0  0  37  26   6  20 167

 1999     TOR   5   3  74  0  0  0  3  72  68  23  47 363


 
      Lloyd was the main man in Toronto's bullpen, and set a career high in almost everything. He pitched very well, and he is equally effective against both lefties and righties. His success should continue for several more years.

 
MANNY MARTINEZ (CF, 29, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1998     PIT  73 180  45 11  2  6  21  24   9  44  250 290 433   0   3

 1999     MON 137 331  81 12  7  2  48  26  17  51  245 279 341  19   6


 
      Martinez is a minor league veteran who actually got some regular playing time with the Expos. He can run, but he doesn't do anything else well at the plate. I can't see him ever getting playing on a regular basis again; he might be able to stick as a spare outfielder/pinch runner.

 
MIKE MORDECAI (IF, 32, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     ATL  61  81  14  2  1  0   8   3   6  16  173 227 222   0   1

 1998     MON  73 119  24  4  2  3  12  10   9  20  202 258 345   1   0

 1999     MON 109 226  53 10  2  5  29  25  20  31  235 297 363   2   5


 
      Mordecai is a veteran utility man who set a career high in almost everything. He isn't any kind of hitter; his only value is his ability to play all over the field. Expect his playing time to decrease considerably.

 
GUILLERMO MOTA (27, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997       A   5  10  25 23  0  0  0 126 135  33 112 436

 1998       A   3   2  20  0  0  0  2  41  18   6  27 066


1999 MON 2 4 51 0 0 0 0 55 54 25 27 293

 
      Mota has pitched brilliantly ever since moving to the bullpen in 1998. He had a great rookie season, and should be an outstanding pitcher for the next few years. He's with the right team, and the right manager.

 
CARL PAVANO (24, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     AAA  11   6  23 23  3  0  0 162 148  34 147 312


1998 MON 6 9 24 23 0 0 0 134 130 43 83 421 1999 MON 6 8 19 18 1 1 0 104 117 35 70 563

 
      Pavano is an outstanding young pitcher whom the Expos acquired in the deal that sent Pedro Martinez to Boston. Pavano's ERA shot up last year, though I am not sure why. I suspect that it was a fluke, and that he will be much better in 2000. He is both young and healthy, and has star potential.

 
JEREMY POWELL (24, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997       A   9  10  26 26  1  0  0 155 162  62 121 302

 1998      AA   9   7  22 22  1  0  0 132 115  37  77 301

 1999     AAA   3   5  16 16  0  0  0  91  85  37  72 297


1998 MON 1 5 7 6 0 0 0 25 27 11 14 792 1999 MON 4 8 17 17 0 0 0 97 113 44 44 473

 
      Powell is a young pitcher with Montreal who has looked good in the minors, but has struggled with the Expos. He will be a good pitcher someday, but probably not this season; he still needs to learn to throw strikes to major league hitters.

 
FERNANDO SEGUIGNOL (1B, 25, S)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997       A 124 456 116 27  5 18  70  83  30 129  254 299 454   5   5

 1998  AA-AAA 112 390 109 21  0 31  70  85  41 120  279 357 572   6   1

 1999     AAA  87 312  89 17  3 23  54  74  40  96  285 381 580   3   7


1999 MON 35 105 27 9 0 5 14 10 5 33 257 328 486 0 0

 
      A young Expos' prospect, Seguignol has hit with awesome power the past two seasons at Ottawa, and also played very well last year with Montreal. At the very least he will be a good part-time player, and could hit 30 homers if he plays regularly.

 
J.D. SMART (26, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997      AA   6   3  12 12  0  0  0  71  75  24  43 369

 1998      AA   3   5  14 11  2  0  1  77  67  18  47 245


1999 MON 0 1 29 0 0 0 0 52 56 17 21 502

 
      Smart has pitched very well in the minors, and had a decent rookie season for Montreal last year. He should start the year in long relief, but if he is pitching well and striking out more batters, then he could probably be moved to the starting rotation with satisfactory results.

 
LEE STEVENS (1B, 33, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     TEX 137 426 128 24  2 21  58  74  23  83  300 336 514   1   3

 1998     TEX 120 344  91 17  4 20  52  59  31  93  265 324 512   0   2

 1999     TEX 146 517 146 31  1 24  76  81  52 132  282 344 485   2   3


 
      With Palmeiro's knees hurting, Stevens was able to play almost the whole year at first base, and had his best season. He took a while to establish himself, but has now has three straight good years, and is a solid player. He will probably go into decline within a couple of seasons; for the moment, he is about average among AL first basemen.
     ADDENDUM: Stevens has been dealt to Montreal. He probably won't make an appearance in the playoffs, but he will remain average among NL first basemen.

 
SCOTT STRICKLAND (24, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997       A   5   3  18 10  1  0  1  67  64  21  77 403

 1998       A   4   6  37 13  0  0  6 105 100  32 104 376

 1999     AAA   3   0  19  0  0  0  5  28  23  11  34 163


1999 MON 0 1 17 0 0 0 0 18 15 11 23 450

 
      Strickland began the season with short stints in A-Ball and Double-A, and was overpowering in the lower minors. He moved up to Ottawa. and then to Montreal, and remained overpowering. For the first time, he was used almost exclusively as a reliever, and the bullpen should probably remain his home. Looks great for the future.

 
ANTHONY TELFORD (34, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     MON   4   6  65  0  0  0  1  89  77  33  61 324

 1998     MON   3   6  77  0  0  0  1  91  85  36  59 386

 1999     MON   5   4  79  0  0  0  2  96 112  38  69 394


 
      Telford had his third straight solid season in relief. There isn't an obvious reason for his success; his control is not great, and last year he gave up a lot of hits, though he surrendered only three homers. Montreal is a great place to pitch, and Telford may have another solid season; but in view of his advancing age, I would not want to depend on him. When he starts to slip, he will be gone quickly.

 
MIKE THURMAN (27, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     MON   1   0   5  2  0  0  0  12   8   4   8 540

 1998     MON   4   5  14 13  0  0  0  67  60  26  32 470

 1999     MON   7  11  29 27  0  0  0 147 140  52  85 405


 
      Thurman spent a full year in Montreal's rotation, and pitched pretty well. He is still young, has good control, and has the right manager behind him. If he learns to strike out a few more batters, I like his chances for success in the future.

 
UGUETH URBINA (26, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     MON   5   8  63  0  0  0 27  64  52  29  84 378

 1998     MON   6   3  64  0  0  0 34  69  37  33  94 130

 1999     MON   6   6  71  0  0  0 41  76  59  36 100 369


 
      Urbina had a bit of an off-year by his own standards, but still led the league in saves, and remains one of the best closers in the game. He overpowers hitters, and increases his workload each season; he should remain outstanding for several more seasons.
     Incidentally, another argument you can dismiss is the one about closers getting more saves with good teams. Good closers with bad teams consistently ring up big save totals; the Expos were very bad last year, but Urbina led the league in both saves and save opportunities.

 
JAVIER VAZQUEZ (24, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997    A-AA  10   3  25 25  2  0  0 155 113  40 147 186


1998 MON 5 15 33 32 0 0 0 172 196 68 139 606 1999 MON 9 8 26 26 3 1 0 155 154 52 113 500

 
      Vazquez wasn't very good, but was much better than he was in 1998. He is very young, and pitched brilliantly in the lower minors, though he was rushed to the big club. I like him a lot; he has good control, gets strikeouts, has stayed healthy, and made improvements in almost every area of his game. Look for him to be above-average in 2000.

 
JOSE VIDRO (2B, 26, S)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     MON  67 169  42 12  1  2  19  17  11  20  249 297 367   1   0

 1998     MON  83 205  45 12  0  0  24  18  27  33  220 318 278   2   2

 1999     MON 140 494 150 45  2 12  67  59  29  51  304 346 476   0   4


 
      Vidro's third year with the Expos was a huge improvement. He's a terrific young player who should continue to play well, and may take another step forward as a hitter. He's an adequate defensive player, but doesn't have much speed; he may wind up at third base, but he has enough power potential to play there, too.

 
RONDELL WHITE (CF, 28, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     MON 151 592 160 29  5 28  84  82  31 111  270 316 478  16   8

 1998     MON  97 357 107 21  2 17  54  58  30  57  300 363 513  16   7

 1999     MON 138 539 168 26  6 22  83  64  32  85  312 359 505  10   6


 
      Rondell had one of his healthiest seasons, despite missing 24 games. He is a good player, not a star, hits .300 with some power and speed. He probably has a year in his future when he will stay healthy and bust loose with a career year; otherwise, the remainder of his career will likely remain mostly injury-plagued. He might also be traded at some time this season.

 
CHRIS WIDGER (CA, 29, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     MON  91 278  65 20  3  7  30  37  22  59  234 290 403   2   0

 1998     MON 125 417  97 18  1 15  36  53  29  85  233 281 388   6   1

 1999     MON 124 383 101 24  1 14  42  56  28  86  264 325 441   1   4


 
      The Expos' regular catcher, Widger had his first good year with the bat. It was probably a career year, and his numbers will take a bit of a tumble this season. He hits left-handers very well, and would be more valuable as part of a platoon.