CINCINNATI REDS
| The Reds had a wonderful season in 1999, and forced a one-game playoff with the Mets. History suggests that they will fall back this year, and trying to replace Greg Vaughn with Dante Bichette won't help. But they were able to add some guy named Griffey to the lineup, and they may also have a full year from Denny Neagle, and they have another Hall Of Famer at shortstop and a great young first baseman and a great young closer. The Central Division is up for grabs, and the Reds might be favourites to win it this year. |
| KIMERA BARTEE (OF, 28, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 DET 57 98 19 5 1 3 20 15 6 35 233 320 315 9 5 1999 DET 41 77 15 1 3 0 11 3 9 20 195 279 285 3 3 |
| The Tigers' designated pinch runner/defensive sub, he has no chance to ever be anything more. |
| DANTE BICHETTE (LF, 36, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 COL 151 561 173 31 2 26 81 118 30 90 308 343 510 6 5 1998 COL 161 662 219 48 2 22 97 122 28 76 331 357 509 14 4 1999 COL 151 593 177 38 2 34 104 133 54 84 298 354 541 6 6 |
|
He was okay last year, hitting .287 on the road with more power than
usual. If I were a GM who needed a slugging left fielder, I still wouldn't touch
Bichette with a 29-foot pole. Even if he has the best season of his life in
another park, he's Marty Cordova... and if he doesn't have his best season,
he's Russ Davis. In view of his age, and the team's poor performance last year,
the Rockies have to be thinking about replacing him. ADDENDUM: The Rockies have now replaced Bichette, dealing him to Cincinnati for Stan Belinda and Jeffrey Hammonds. I'm not sure what the Reds' are hoping to get from him. |
| AARON BOONE (3B, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 16 49 12 1 0 0 5 5 2 5 245 275 265 1 0 1998 CIN 58 181 51 13 2 2 24 28 15 36 282 350 409 6 1 1999 CIN 139 472 132 26 5 14 56 72 30 79 280 330 445 17 6 |
| Ray's grandson, Bob's son, and Bret's little brother. Aaron had a nice little year for Cincy in 1999, and was a key to their success. He hits for a decent average, has a bit of pop, runs the bases well. I don't expect him to have a long career (it took him long enough to become a regular), but 2000 will probably be his best year. |
| SEAN CASEY (1B, 26, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 CIN 96 302 82 21 1 7 44 52 43 45 272 365 417 1 1 1999 CIN 151 594 197 42 3 25 103 99 61 88 332 399 539 0 2 |
| Three of the NL's best left-handed hitters in 1999 were Casey, Brian Giles, and Jeromy Burnitz, and they are all former Indians. Casey is the real deal; he is an outstanding line-drive hitter who is still young enough to develop significant power. Casey and Griffey will give the Reds an awesome one-two punch in the order for many more years. |
| TRAVIS DAWKINS (SS, 21, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 R 70 253 61 5 0 4 47 37 30 38 241 315 308 16 6 1998 A 102 367 97 7 6 1 52 30 37 60 264 332 324 37 10 1999 A 76 305 83 10 6 8 56 32 35 38 272 346 423 38 13 1999 AA 32 129 47 7 0 2 24 13 14 17 364 427 465 15 5 |
| A young shortstop in the Reds' system, Dawkins didn't look like much of a hitter until he had a hot streak at Chattanooga last year. The Reds don't need a shortstop right now, and Dawkins should spend at least one more year in the minors anyway. He looks promising for the future. |
| EDDIE GAILLARD (30, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 DET 1 0 16 0 0 0 1 20 16 10 12 531 |
| Gaillard appeared in eight games with the Devil Rays. He is a minor league veteran who occasionally gets a taste of the big leagues; he pitched well at Durham last year, and probably deserves a shot at a regular job in long relief. I doubt that he has much of a future. |
| DANNY GRAVES (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CLE-CIN 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 26 41 20 11 554 1998 CIN 2 1 62 0 0 0 8 81 76 28 44 332 1999 CIN 8 7 75 0 0 0 27 111 90 49 69 308 |
| Graves began 1999 as the Reds' closer, and led the team in saves. He was also a workhorse in the bullpen, and had a good ERA. So it was a good year, but I'm uncertain about Graves' future. His control was a disappointment, and he's not really a power pitcher. He's not really a good closer, and that job will probably be taken by Williamson in 2000. Graves should be a decent middle reliever, but he needs to throw more strikes if he wants any long-term success. |
| KEN GRIFFEY JR (CF, 30, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SEA 157 608 185 34 3 56 125 147 76 121 304 382 646 15 4 1998 SEA 161 633 180 33 3 56 120 146 76 121 284 365 611 20 5 1999 SEA 160 606 173 26 3 48 123 134 91 108 285 384 576 24 7 |
|
Now has 398 home runs in his career, more than halfway to Hank
Aaron's record, and he just turned 30. He's also been traded to
Cincinnati, and will probably break the record in a Reds uniform.
Assuming the McGwire doesn't break it first, that is. I've heard some talk that today's players won't last long enough to break any major records, that they are so well paid that they have no incentive to play into middle age. A nice theory, but so far there is no evidence to support this idea about guys retiring early. Look around, and all you see are old guys hanging on. Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, Rickey Henderson, Harold Baines, Tony Gwynn, Tim Raines, Jesse Orosco, Andres Galarraga... all of these guys will either go in the Hall Of Fame, or receive serious consideration, and they were all active last season. Galarraga has cancer, for crying out loud, and Raines has lupus, and they're still coming back. Maybe there will be some changes in the future, but I can't see it. I can't think of a single ballplayer who retired before his time, or who gave up a chase on an immortal record. Later in the season, I heard Hank Aaron suggest that Griffey has a good chance at breaking his record; yeah, I would have to agree that a guy averaging 50 homers a season can break any record. Griffey has a ways to go, and lots of strange things can happen, but his chances are excellent. I wouldn't expect Griffey's performance to change much in Cincinnati. The Kingdome was a great park for left-handed hitters, but Griffey hits home runs everywhere. There is, I think, every reason to believe that Griffey will be as brilliant a player in his 30's as he was in his 20's. |
| PETE HARNISCH (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 NYM-MIL 1 2 10 8 0 0 0 40 48 23 22 703 1998 CIN 14 7 32 32 2 1 0 209 176 64 157 314 1999 CIN 16 10 33 33 2 2 0 198 190 57 120 368 |
| He has had two outstanding seasons in a row for Cincinnati, and is the leader of their staff. He is not the power pitcher that he once was, but he has good stuff, good control, and a history of success, which is all you need. If he can stay healthy, he will continue to pitch well. |
| BARRY LARKIN (SS, 36, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 73 224 71 17 3 4 34 20 47 24 317 440 473 14 3 1998 CIN 145 538 166 34 10 17 93 72 79 69 309 397 504 26 3 1999 CIN 161 583 171 30 4 12 108 75 93 57 293 390 420 30 8 |
| Larkin had the healthiest season of his life, and though he didn't play the best ball of his career, he was still enormously valuable. He has been the best shortstop in the National League for over a decade now, and is pretty close to being a lock for the Hall Of Fame. He still does everything well, and should be very good once again this year. |
| JASON LARUE (CA, 26, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 132 473 149 50 3 8 78 81 47 90 315 377 484 14 4 1998 AA 105 386 141 39 8 14 71 82 40 60 365 429 617 4 3 1999 AAA 70 263 66 12 2 12 42 37 15 52 251 299 449 0 3 |
| LaRue is a young catcher with power potential. He should take Brian Johnson's job in Cincinnati this season, and platoon with Taubensee. LaRue should hit well in that role, and may even hit well enough to be an everyday catcher in the future. |
| MARK LEWIS (IF, 30, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 118 341 91 14 6 10 50 42 23 62 267 318 431 3 2 1998 PHI 142 518 129 21 2 9 52 54 48 111 249 312 349 3 3 1999 CIN 88 173 44 16 0 6 18 28 7 24 254 280 451 0 0 |
| Lewis moves around every year, and could wind up with any team in 2000. He also moves around to different positions, and moves back and forth between the bench and a starting job. To be honest, I'm not sure where he will be in 2000... but his skills are limited, and he doesn't really do a whole lot to help a team. |
| HAL MORRIS (1B, 35, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 96 333 92 20 1 1 42 33 23 43 276 328 351 3 1 1998 KC 127 472 146 27 2 1 50 40 32 52 309 350 381 1 0 1999 CIN 80 102 29 9 0 0 10 16 10 21 284 348 373 0 0 |
| He is aging and has no power and doesn't walk much and has no defensive position. I guess he might have some value as a pinch hitter, limited to only 75 at bats or so, but I'm not sure how many teams can afford to keep a guy like that on their roster. |
| HEATH MURRAY (27, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AAA 6 8 19 19 2 1 0 109 142 41 99 545 1998 AAA 9 11 27 27 3 0 0 162 191 62 121 499 1999 AAA 5 4 15 15 1 1 0 82 99 32 65 426 |
| Murray has split the last two seasons between Las Vegas and San Diego. Though he has struggled at times, he looks like he could be a good pitcher. Las Vegas is a tough place to pitch; Murray performed very well in the lower minors, and his K/BB ratios are good. He might have more success if he gave up starting, and moved to the bullpen. |
| DENNY NEAGLE (32, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ATL 20 5 34 34 4 4 0 233 204 49 172 297 1998 ATL 16 11 32 31 5 2 0 210 196 60 165 355 1999 CIN 9 5 20 19 0 0 0 112 95 40 76 427 |
| Neagle was injured early in the season, disappeared for a couple of months, then came back to help the Reds in their playoff drive. If he is healthy he is one of the best pitchers in the league, and the Reds have some big bats to support him. |
| ALEX OCHOA (OF, 28, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 NYM 113 238 58 14 1 3 31 22 18 32 244 300 349 3 4 1998 MIN 94 249 64 14 2 2 35 25 10 35 257 288 353 6 3 1999 MIL 119 277 83 16 3 8 47 40 45 43 300 404 466 6 4 |
| We've been hearing for years now what a great young player this guy is. Well, he's not so young anymore, but last year he finally played very well. Ochoa might get one more chance to be a regular, and might be okay, but otherwise he should start thinking about having a successful career as a fourth outfielder. |
| STEVE PARRIS (32, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1998 CIN 6 5 18 16 1 1 0 99 89 32 77 373 1999 CIN 11 4 22 21 2 1 0 129 124 52 86 350 |
| Parris is a veteran minor leaguer who has pitched very well the past two seasons, and even started a playoff game with Cincinnati last year. He is a quality pitcher, but has probably had his best season; expect him to quickly regress within a couple of seasons. |
| POKEY REESE (SS, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 128 397 87 15 0 4 48 26 31 82 219 284 287 25 7 1998 CIN 59 133 34 2 2 1 20 16 14 28 256 322 323 3 2 1999 CIN 149 585 167 37 5 10 85 52 35 81 285 330 417 38 7 |
| A pretty good player, Reese can run and hit a little and won a Gold Glove at second base. Like many Reds he may have overachieved last year, but he is also entering his prime, and if he keeps hitting .280 he is among the better second basemen in the league. |
| DENNIS REYES (33, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 LA 2 3 14 5 0 0 0 47 51 18 36 383 1998 LA-CIN 3 5 19 10 0 0 0 67 62 47 77 454 1999 CIN 2 2 65 1 0 0 2 62 53 39 72 379 |
| Yet another young, big left-hander (6'3", 246 lbs), Reyes gets lots of strikeouts, also has some control problems. He pitched very well last season with the Reds, almost exclusively as a reliever, and he should probably remain in that role. He is yet another fine young player whom the Dodgers gave away; I would expect Reyes to have better years ahead of him. |
| CHRIS STYNES (IF/OF, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 49 198 69 7 1 6 31 28 11 13 348 394 485 11 2 1998 CIN 123 347 88 10 1 6 52 27 32 36 254 323 340 15 1 1999 CIN 73 113 27 1 0 2 18 14 12 13 239 310 301 5 2 |
| He imitated Ty Cobb for two months in 1997, but otherwise is a very mediocre player. Stynes can play almost every position, and that keeps his career alive, but it will end soon enough. |
| SCOTT SULLIVAN (29, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CIN 5 3 59 0 0 0 1 97 79 30 96 324 1998 CIN 5 5 67 0 0 0 1 102 98 36 86 521 1999 CIN 5 4 79 0 0 0 3 114 88 47 78 301 |
| Sullivan had a great year in middle relief for the Reds, and was a key to their surprising season. It was his second outstanding season in the past three years; I wish he had better control, but otherwise he is a very good bet to have another good year in 2000. He probably won't ever be a closer unless his control improves. |
| EDDIE TAUBENSEE (CA, 31, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 108 254 68 18 0 10 26 34 22 66 268 323 457 0 1 1998 CIN 130 431 120 27 0 11 61 72 52 93 278 352 418 1 0 1999 CIN 126 424 132 22 2 21 58 87 30 67 311 354 521 0 2 |
| Many years ago the Astros traded Kenny Lofton for this guy. They were widely ridiculed as a result, but as you can see, Taubensee can play, too. He has been solid for years, and 1999 was his best season. I don't expect him to hit .300 again, but he should continue to play well. |
| MICHAEL TUCKER (OF, 29, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 138 499 141 25 7 14 80 56 44 116 283 347 445 12 7 1998 ATL 130 414 101 27 3 13 54 46 49 112 244 327 418 8 3 1999 CIN 133 296 75 8 5 11 55 44 37 81 253 338 426 11 4 |
| Tucker was dealt for Jermaine Dye in 1997, and at first it looked like the Braves got the better of the deal. Now, Dye has had a big season, and Tucker is in decline. Though he is a solid player, and has both power and speed, it is now apparent that Tucker is not a good regular, and should be kept in a platoon role. He should be valuable in a limited number of at bats. |
| RON VILLONE (30, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MIL 1 0 50 0 0 0 0 53 54 36 40 342 1998 CLE 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 27 30 22 15 600 1999 CIN 9 7 29 22 0 0 2 143 114 73 97 423 |
| After several years as a left-handed one-out reliever, Villone moved into the starting rotation, and had a fine year... and held right-handers to a .212 batting average! He has always had poor control, and I find it unlikely that he will be able to succeed much in the future unless he starts throwing more strikes. Will probably be a .500 pitcher in 2000. |
| GABE WHITE (28, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CIN 2 2 12 6 0 0 1 41 39 8 25 439 1998 CIN 5 5 69 3 0 0 9 98 86 27 83 401 1999 CIN 1 2 50 0 0 0 0 61 68 14 61 443 |
| White is another lefty in the bullpen, has very good control. Last year he held right-handers to a .244 average, but lefties hit .365, and that's not the way it is supposed to work. I suspect that he will fix whatever the problem was, and have a good season in 2000. |
| SCOTT WILLIAMSON (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 R 8 2 13 13 2 1 0 86 66 23 101 178 1998 AA-AAA 4 5 23 23 0 0 0 121 105 55 122 373 |
| The NL Rookie Of The Year, and a key to the Reds' great season. His control was a little spotty (including 13 wild pitches), but otherwise everything about him was fabulous. I expect Williamson to improve his control and remain a great pitcher, if he stays healthy. |
| DMITRI YOUNG (1B, 26, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 STL 110 333 86 14 3 5 38 34 38 63 258 335 363 6 5 1998 CIN 144 536 166 48 1 14 81 83 47 94 310 364 481 2 4 1999 CIN 127 373 112 30 2 14 63 56 30 71 300 352 504 3 1 |
| He had a slow start with the bat, which is a bad thing, because he is an atrociously bad defensive player. The Reds had Sean Casey at first, Greg Vaughn in left field, which limited Young's chance for playing time even further. In the end, he got some at bats, and hit very well. He is still young, and his best years should still be ahead of him. But he has got to join a team that needs either a first baseman or a designated hitter. |