CHICAGO CUBS
| The Cubs had a singularly awful season in 1999, losing 95 games. Despite the addition of Don Baylor as manager, I'm not optimistic about the future. They added Ismael Valdes- but they lost both Trachsel and Adams. Aguilera is old, and Wood is question mark. The offense is okay, and it would help if Sammy Sosa could hit 60 homers again, but they also need to get Roosevelt Brown and Jose Nieves into the lineup, and I'm not sure if they are prepared to do that. Besides, they're the Cubs, so of course they won't win. |
| RICK AGUILERA (38, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MIN 5 4 61 0 0 0 26 68 65 22 68 382 1998 MIN 4 9 68 0 0 0 38 74 75 15 57 424 1999 MIN-CHC 9 4 61 0 0 0 14 68 54 12 45 293 |
| Aguilera's 15th year in the majors was among his best. He now has 289 career saves; he has very good control, and still gets strikeouts. He should continue to pitch well in 2000, except that pitchers his age are sometimes prone to off-years. |
| SHANE ANDREWS (3B, 29, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MON 18 64 13 3 0 4 10 9 3 20 203 232 438 0 0 1998 MON 150 492 117 30 1 25 48 69 58 137 238 314 455 1 6 1999 MON-CHC 117 348 68 12 0 16 41 51 50 109 195 295 368 1 1 |
| The Cubs, after dealing Jose Hernandez and realizing that Gary Gaetti can't play anymore, acquired Andrews from the Expos. This was their season in a nutshell. Even if Andrews hits 25 home runs he isn't very good, so his upside is very limited. |
| MICAH BOWIE (25, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 3 2 8 7 0 0 0 44 34 26 41 350 1998 AA 11 6 30 29 1 0 0 163 132 64 160 348 1999 AAA 4 4 14 11 0 0 0 73 65 14 82 296 |
| Bowie began the season pitching brilliantly in Richmond, then was promoted to the majors, and got the snot beat out of him the rest of the year. I am concerned about Bowie's future, and I doubt that the Cubs will help him much. But his ERA might make a record drop in 2000; he was once a fine pitching prospect, and he could surprise us with a solid year. |
| ROOSEVELT BROWN (OF, 25, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 94 325 78 14 2 5 37 42 29 83 240 308 342 5 4 1998 AA 42 160 42 11 0 6 20 24 13 30 263 324 444 3 1 1999 AA-AAA 108 393 133 37 2 25 62 91 33 83 338 393 634 9 4 |
| Brown has a great name, and also had a great year, posting a .713 slugging percentage at Triple-A Iowa. Knowing the Cubs, they will probably send Brown back to Iowa and keep Henry Rodriguez in their outfield... but I would like to see Brown hitting behind Sosa in the Cubs' lineup. |
| DAMON BUFORD (OF, 30, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 TEX 122 366 82 18 0 8 49 39 30 83 224 287 339 18 7 1998 BOS 86 216 61 14 4 10 37 42 22 43 282 349 523 5 5 1999 BOS 91 297 72 15 2 6 39 38 21 74 242 294 367 9 2 |
|
He was terrible at the plate, and has had two stinko years
surrounding a solid 1998. Jimy Williams likes guys who can run and
catch the ball, but if he doesn't hit better, I suspect he will be
quickly and easily replaced. ADDENDUM: Buford has been acquired by the Cubs. It's nice to be wanted by someone, but he still has to hit. |
| JOE GIRARDI (CA, 35, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 NYY 112 398 105 23 1 1 38 50 26 53 264 311 334 2 3 1998 NYY 78 254 70 11 4 3 31 31 14 38 276 317 386 2 4 1999 NYY 65 209 50 16 1 2 23 27 10 26 239 271 354 3 1 |
|
His hitting took a turn for the worse, and it wasn't great to
begin with. A capable backup catcher, he has a good defensive
reputation, and is very well liked in New York. And the team wins,
so no one cares that he can't hit. Should keep his job for at least
one more season. ADDEDNUM: Girardi has been signed with the Cubs. I imagine that he will replace Benito Santiago, and will be very welcome in Chicago. |
| JEREMI GONZALEZ (25, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CHC 11 9 23 23 1 1 0 144 126 69 93 425 1998 CHC 7 7 20 20 1 1 0 110 124 41 70 532 1999 INJURED |
| Gonzalez is a talented young pitcher who missed the entire season with arm surgery. I don't know when or if he is ever coming back. |
| MARK GRACE (1B, 36, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CHC 151 555 177 32 5 13 87 78 88 45 319 409 465 2 4 1998 CHC 158 595 184 39 3 17 92 89 93 56 309 401 471 4 7 1999 CHC 161 593 183 44 5 16 107 91 83 44 309 390 481 3 4 |
| See the MARK MCGWIRE comment for his career numbers. He is about as consistent a player as you will ever find, a solid line-drive hitter and a good defensive player. His lack of power keeps him from being one of the very best at the position, and he has never had a monster season like Keith Hernandez where he was able to win a batting title. Thus the Hall Of Fame is an unlikely destination for Grace, but he should finish his career with about 2500 hits, and rank among the best Cubs ever. |
| WILLIE GREENE (3B, 29, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 151 495 125 22 1 26 62 91 78 111 253 354 459 6 0 1998 CIN-BAL 135 396 102 19 1 15 65 54 69 90 258 368 424 7 3 1999 TOR 81 226 46 7 0 12 22 41 20 56 204 266 394 0 0 |
| He now has 266 at bats in the American League, and a .195 batting average. Though I don't really think there is much difference between the two leagues, Greene obviously needs to go someplace where he is comfortable. He is a talented hitter, and he is still young, but if he doesn't start to hit his career may end without warning. |
| RICKY GUTIERREZ (SS, 30, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 HOU 102 303 79 14 4 3 33 34 21 50 261 315 363 5 2 1998 HOU 141 491 128 24 3 2 55 46 54 84 261 337 334 13 7 1999 HOU 85 268 70 7 5 1 33 25 37 45 261 354 336 2 5 |
| He is incredibly consistent, batting .261 for three straight years; I haven't heard anything, but I wonder if this is a record? That's not to say he is very good; without power or speed, I don't think that Gutierrez is a quality regular. But he can play shortstop, and he is not an automatic out, so he will probably stick around for a while. |
| FELIX HEREDIA (24, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 FLO 5 3 56 0 0 0 0 57 53 30 54 429 1998 FLO-CHC 3 3 71 2 0 0 2 58 57 38 54 506 1999 CHC 3 1 69 0 0 0 1 52 56 25 50 485 |
| He is an erratic lefty, but he is also very young, gets strikeouts, and had markedly improved control last year. If I were a Cubs fan, I would put up with his inconsistency, and be thankful that he was on my team; Heredia has a chance to be very good in the near future. |
| GLENALLEN HILL (OF, 35, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SF 128 398 104 28 4 11 47 64 19 87 261 297 435 7 4 1998 SEA-CHC 122 390 121 25 2 20 63 56 28 79 310 356 538 1 1 1999 CHC 99 253 76 9 1 20 43 55 22 61 300 353 581 5 1 |
| Late in his career, he has fancied himself the second coming of Orlando Cepeda. At Hill's age, you always have to worry that he will suddenly stop hitting, but he has had two very good seasons in a row, and will probably have another if he keeps playing in Wrigley Field. |
| MATT KARCHNER (33, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CHW 3 1 52 0 0 0 15 53 50 26 30 291 1998 CHW-CHC 5 5 61 0 0 0 11 64 63 33 52 515 1999 CHC 1 0 16 0 0 0 0 18 16 9 9 250 |
| Karchner was injured and missed most of the season. In the past he has mixed some very good seasons with some bad ones; he's a capable middle reliever, probably should not be used as a closer. A strong comeback at this point in his career would be a surprise. |
| RAY KING (26, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 5 5 12 9 0 0 0 66 85 24 42 685 1998 AA-AAA 2 5 62 0 0 0 5 62 59 25 52 377 1999 AAA 4 4 37 0 0 0 2 43 31 22 41 188 |
| King was not much of a prospect until he started pitching brilliantly with Iowa last season, and got into a few games with the Cubs. He is not young, so he needs to make things happen now. I think King can be a good lefty in the bullpen; the Cubs need to give him that chance. |
| JON LIEBER (30, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 PIT 11 14 33 32 1 0 0 188 193 51 160 449 1998 PIT 8 14 29 28 2 0 1 171 182 40 138 411 1999 CHC 10 11 31 31 3 1 0 203 226 46 186 407 |
| He started the year with three strikes against him, pitching for a terrible team in a hitter's park in a hitter's year. But despite his losing record, Lieber pitched very well for the Cubs. His K/BB ratio was outstanding, and makes me believe that he has a big year waiting inside him. I would love to have him on my team right now. |
| COLE LINIAK (3B, 24, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 53 200 56 11 0 2 20 18 17 29 280 338 365 0 1 1998 AAA 112 429 112 31 1 17 65 59 39 71 261 328 457 4 4 1999 AAA 95 348 92 25 0 12 55 42 40 57 264 341 440 0 5 |
| Liniak is a young player that the Cubs acquired from the Red Sox in the Rod Beck trade. He hasn't been very impressive so far, though the Cubs have no one better to play at third. I don't expect great things from him. |
| ANDREW LORRAINE (28, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1999 AAA 9 8 22 21 1 0 0 143 149 34 96 371 |
| Lorraine has good control, and wasn't terrible with the Cubs last season. His career to this point has been dismal, but he could surprise with a solid season. |
| DAVE MARTINEZ (OF, 36, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CHW 145 504 144 16 6 12 78 55 55 69 286 356 413 12 6 1998 TAM 90 309 79 11 0 3 31 20 35 52 256 334 320 8 7 1999 TAM 143 514 146 25 5 6 79 66 60 76 284 361 387 13 6 |
| A classic expansion player, a good fourth outfielder who plays every day because there is no one around who is better. Martinez would be very valuable as a backup, but his skills are stretched as a regular. Will probably continue to play at the same level next year, though his playing time may diminish if the Devil Rays acquire some legitimate regulars. |
| BRIAN MCNICHOL (26, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 7 10 22 22 0 0 0 119 153 42 97 581 1998 AA 12 9 28 26 4 1 0 179 170 62 168 372 1999 AAA 10 11 28 28 2 1 0 161 194 55 120 558 |
| McNichol is a Cubs' prospect who pitched extremely well in 1998, but struggled last year in Iowa. His minor league record is spotty, and he is getting old quickly, but he has good control and gets strikeouts, and that's a pretty good indicator of success. I think he can have a good season. |
| CHAD MEYERS (2B/CF, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 125 439 132 28 4 4 89 58 74 72 301 408 410 54 16 1998 AA 77 293 79 14 0 0 63 26 58 43 270 397 317 37 9 1999 AA-AAA 108 413 131 32 4 3 84 45 44 60 317 400 436 39 15 |
| Meyers has a good shot at becoming a quality player. He has no power, but can hit .300, steal bases, hit some doubles, and he has good plate discipline. He is not likely to ever be a star, but if he can find a position in the field he should be a good regular. |
| JOSE MOLINA (CA, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 55 179 45 9 1 0 17 23 14 25 251 306 313 4 0 1998 AA 109 320 71 10 1 2 33 28 32 74 222 296 278 1 5 1999 AAA 74 240 63 11 1 4 24 26 20 54 263 327 367 0 1 |
| Another young Molina who can catch, Jose is not as good a hitter as Ben, and will not hit enough to get regular playing time. He could have a career as a third-stringer. |
| RODNEY MYERS (31, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1999 CHC 3 1 46 0 0 0 0 64 71 25 41 438 |
| Myers had a full year as a middle reliever with the Cubs, and had a decent season. He will be back in the same role, and isn't going to get any better. |
| JOSE NIEVES (SS, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 85 331 91 20 1 4 51 42 17 55 275 313 378 16 6 1998 AA 82 314 91 27 5 6 42 39 18 55 290 327 484 17 10 1999 AAA 104 392 105 25 3 11 55 59 24 65 268 314 431 11 8 |
| Nieves is a young player with the Cubs who appears will be able to hit enough to be a solid regular. The Cubs don't have a good shortstop, so Nieves has a great opportunity to win the job. But he didn't play well in the field last year (16 errors), and will have to do better with the glove. |
| STEVE RAIN (25, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AAA 7 1 40 0 0 0 1 44 51 34 50 589 1998 AAA 4 6 29 14 1 0 0 104 118 64 83 668 1999 AA 3 1 40 0 0 0 24 45 32 16 55 159 |
| Rain is huge (6'6", 250 lbs), and has been in pro ball (with the Cubs) since he was 17. Progress has been slow; after an awful year at Iowa in 1998, Rain was demoted to West Tennesse, where he dominated hitters in the closer's role. He is big and strong, and can overpower hitters, but he is also prone to fits of wildness. If Rain can keep the walks down, he will be a good pitcher. He is a project, and I wouldn't expect much success this year. |
| JEFF REED (CA, 37, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 COL 90 256 76 10 0 17 43 47 35 55 297 386 535 2 1 1998 COL 113 259 75 17 1 9 43 39 37 57 290 377 467 0 0 1999 COL-CHC 103 256 66 16 2 3 29 28 45 58 258 373 371 1 2 |
| Reed is platoon player, has been in the big leagues since 1984, and now has 16 seasons under his belt. He has extended his career by taking advantage of the thin air in Colorado, but is now 37 and doesn't play with the Rockies anymore. This will likely be his last season. |
| HENRY RODRIGUEZ (LF, 32, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MON 132 476 116 28 3 26 55 83 42 149 244 306 479 3 3 1998 CHC 128 415 104 21 1 31 56 85 54 113 251 334 530 1 3 1999 CHC 130 447 136 29 0 26 72 87 56 113 304 381 544 2 4 |
| He surprised everyone including his mother by having his best season. Rodriguez has hit 119 home runs over the past four years, so I guess he is an established power threat. As well, the walks keep going up, while the strikeouts keep dropping. O Henry demolishes right-handed pitches, but will probably be platooning within a couple of years. A good player. |
| SAMMY SOSA (RF, 31, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CHC 162 642 161 31 4 36 90 119 45 174 251 300 480 22 12 1998 CHC 159 643 198 20 0 66 134 158 73 171 308 377 647 18 9 1999 CHC 162 625 180 24 2 63 114 141 78 171 288 367 635 7 8 |
| He duplicated his 1998 season in almost every respect, and what were the chances of that happening? Since I never expected Sosa to be this good, I'm not quite sure what to expect from him in the future. Perhaps we should wait until he stops hitting 60 homers a year, then decide what to make of him. He is a very good player, obviously. |
| KEVIN TAPANI (36, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CHC 9 3 13 13 1 1 0 85 77 23 55 339 1998 CHC 19 9 35 34 2 2 0 219 244 62 136 485 1999 CHC 6 12 23 23 1 0 0 136 151 33 73 483 |
| Tapani pitched about as well as he did in 1998, when he won 19 games, except that he made fewer starts and his team stunk. He is a solid pitcher, has good control, but shouldn't be the team ace. He had some back troubles last season; if he is healthy, expect the same level of performance, probably with a .500 record. |
| ISMAEL VALDES (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 LA 10 11 30 30 0 0 0 197 171 47 140 265 1998 LA 11 10 27 27 2 2 0 174 171 66 122 398 1999 LA 9 14 32 32 2 1 0 203 213 58 143 398 |
| Valdes has a history of pitching very well, but not winning. Last year he struggled, and had an ugly record. He has been dealt to the Cubs; his ERA will go up, because Wrigley Field is a much tougher place to pitch than Dodger Stadium. But maybe a change of scenery is what he needs; he is very talented, and is capable of having a big year. I would like to have Valdes on my team. |
| BRIAN WILLIAMS (31, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 DET 3 10 40 17 2 1 2 121 145 85 72 677 1998 BAL 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 24 20 18 14 300 1999 HOU 2 1 50 0 0 0 0 67 69 35 53 441 |
| A journeyman pitcher, Williams had a mediocre year pitching in the Astros' bullpen, and is not going to do better in 2000. |
| KERRY WOOD (23, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA-AAA 10 9 29 29 0 0 0 152 93 131 186 457 |
|
You know who he is. The hottest of hot young pitchers, he
struck out 20 batters in a game, and was the 1998 NL Rookie Of The
Year. Wood didn't pitch at all last year, thanks to a tear in his arm
(I can't remember if it was his shoulder or elbow, but trust me, it
was bad). The Tommy John surgery used to mean a loss of 10 mph off
of the fastball, but now guys like Billy Koch are coming back stronger
than before. We won't know with Wood until he starts throwing
again. If he comes back at full strength, he's a tremendous young pitcher. He's similar to a young Nolan Ryan, though his control might be better than Nolan's was. But will he be as healthy as Nolan? Ryan suffered from blisters when he was young; Wood's problem is a lot worse. UPDATE: Wood has now been diagnosed with a hole in his heart. Doctors say that it will not hinder his career, but that he will have to get it fixed someday. While I trust that the doctors know what they're talking about, as a rule I am pessimistic about young pitchers whose bodies are falling apart. |
| ERIC YOUNG (2B, 33, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 COL-LA 155 622 174 33 8 8 106 61 71 54 280 359 397 45 14 1998 LA 117 452 129 24 1 8 78 43 45 32 285 355 396 42 13 1999 LA 119 456 128 24 2 2 73 41 63 26 281 371 355 51 22 |
| Young is a quality player, has hit fairly well the past two years for the Dodgers. He's not a star, and has had some injury problems the past two seasons. Good defensive player; his stolen bases aren't worth a whole lot because he gets caught so often. Probably will not play another full season. |