ATLANTA BRAVES
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If the Braves are going to win another championship, this might be
the year to do it. Their pitching is still the best in baseball; Millwood
is awesome, and Glavine and Maddux aren't too bad, either. Smoltz is gone
for the year, but the Braves have so many great young pitchers (Chen, Perez,
McGlinchy) that one of them should be able to pitch well. They have the MVP
at third base, and Andruw Jones should be better in centre, and the Cat may
be able to help at first. The bullpen should also be good, if Rocker can keep his head screwed on straight. No other team in the National League looks as strong, and the Yankees won't likely be as awesome as they have been. The Braves should make the most of their opportunities, because success won't last forever. |
| BRUCE CHEN (23, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 12 7 28 28 1 1 0 146 120 44 182 351 1998 AA 13 7 24 23 1 0 0 139 106 48 164 329 1999 AAA 6 3 14 14 0 0 0 78 73 26 90 381 |
| Chen is yet another outstanding pitching prospect in the Braves' system. He got a starting job last year, struggled a bit but wasn't too bad, but the Braves were trying to win and didn't stick with him. He is still very young, and looks awesome; a second chance is going to come very soon, and my guess is he will be great. |
| DERRIN EBERT (24, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 11 8 27 25 0 0 0 176 191 48 101 410 1998 AAA 9 9 29 29 0 0 0 164 195 49 88 451 1999 AAA 8 7 25 24 2 1 0 151 173 44 82 430 |
| Ebert is a young pitcher in the Braves system, but at the moment is not one of their better prospects. He's a big guy and has good control, but doesn't fool many hitters. He is still young enough to improve one or two of his pitches; won't be an impact pitcher in 2000. |
| ANDRES GALARRAGA (1B, 39, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 COL 154 600 191 31 3 41 120 140 54 141 318 389 585 15 8 1998 ATL 153 555 169 27 1 44 103 121 63 146 305 397 595 7 6 1999 DID NOT PLAY |
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After a monster 1998 campaign, Galarraga missed all of last year with
cancer in his back. The word is that the treatments were
successful, and he is getting in shape to come back in 2000. I'm skeptical, but after you've had four or five comebacks, what's another one? Andres works hard, and has tremendous strength... but he's also 39 years old, and is recovering from cancer. If he helps anybody next year, it will probably be in a platoon role. |
| FREDDY GARCIA (OF/3B, 28, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 PIT 56 172 44 11 1 9 27 26 18 45 256 332 488 0 2 1999 PIT-ATL 57 132 31 5 0 7 17 24 5 42 235 261 432 0 0 |
| Garcia is a big guy who hits some home runs, doesn't do much else. Will probably get a few at bats in 2000, but I wouldn't get excited about him. |
| TOM GLAVINE (34, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ATL 14 7 33 33 5 2 0 240 197 79 152 296 1998 ATL 20 6 33 33 4 3 0 229 202 74 157 247 1999 ATL 14 11 35 35 2 0 0 234 259 83 138 412 |
| Glavine and Maddux are both turning 34, and both had off- years in 1999. Glavine's off-year wasn't as impressive as Maddux's off-year, but it was still pretty decent. I would expect him to win 16-17 games again next year; he now has 187 career wins, and should role along merrily to about 240, plenty enough to get in the Hall Of Fame. |
| OZZIE GUILLEN (SS, 36, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CHW 142 490 120 21 6 4 59 52 22 24 245 275 337 5 3 1998 BAL-ATL 95 280 74 15 1 1 37 22 25 27 264 325 336 1 5 1999 ATL 92 232 56 16 0 1 21 20 15 17 241 284 323 4 2 |
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In his prime, he was a terrible hitter who played great defense. He is
now 36, and is as bad a hitter as ever... but his defensive reputation has
taken a dive, especially after dropping an easy pop fly in the World Series.
If Ozzie Guillen can't play better defense than Walt Weiss, then why is he on
your team? And why give him 232 at bats? I will not be surprised if Guillen's career ends next year. I know he's a good guy in the clubhouse, but he can't play, and there are a thousand kids in the minors with better skills. |
| ANDRUW JONES (CF, 23, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 153 399 92 18 1 18 60 70 56 107 231 329 416 20 11 1998 ATL 159 582 158 33 8 31 89 90 40 129 271 321 515 27 4 1999 ATL 162 592 163 35 5 26 97 84 76 103 275 365 483 24 12 |
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His power was down a little and his base stealing was unimpressive, but
I still think he had his best year. The walks were way up, and the strikeouts
were down, indications that he is improving his command of the strike zone. I
boldly predict he will hit .300 in 2000. Jones' career seems like a disappointment so far, in view of his fantastic minor league record, his incredible debut in the 1996 World Series, and the fact he was very comparable to Vladmir Guerrero only two years ago. It is easy to forget how young Jones still is; he is still young enough to take two or three big steps forward as a hitter. Though I don't think he will ever be as good as Guerrero, it is very likely he will be an MVP candidate within the next five years. |
| CHIPPER JONES (3B, 28, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 157 597 176 41 3 21 100 111 76 88 295 371 479 20 5 1998 ATL 160 601 188 29 5 34 123 107 96 93 313 404 547 16 6 1999 ATL 157 567 181 41 1 45 116 110 126 94 319 441 633 25 3 |
| He was the best player in the National League, and won the MVP Award. Chipper has been highly touted ever since he was drafted, and he has exceeded expectations, taking another step forward every year. He is in the middle of his prime years, and is one of the top MVP candidates for 2000. |
| BRIAN JORDAN (RF, 33, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 STL 47 145 34 5 0 0 17 10 10 21 234 311 269 6 1 1998 STL 150 564 178 34 7 25 100 91 40 66 316 368 534 17 5 1999 ATL 153 576 163 28 4 23 100 115 51 81 283 346 465 13 8 |
| Jordan is a good player, though perhaps a little overrated. His 115 RBI had more to do with opportunity than his own performance. The National League is loaded with outstanding right-fielders, and Jordan ranks in the middle of the pack; he has some power and speed, and is a good defensive player. His health may become more of a problem as he ages, especially after the beating he took playing football. |
| WALLY JOYNER (1B, 38, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SD 135 455 149 29 2 13 59 83 51 51 327 390 486 3 5 1998 SD 131 439 131 30 1 12 58 80 51 44 298 370 453 1 2 1999 SD 110 323 80 14 2 5 34 43 58 54 248 363 350 0 1 |
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He had some injuries, and his batting average and power numbers both took
a dive. Joyner has been a consistently good player in the past, and he still
has good strike zone judgment... but he will also turn 38 next year. The Padres
will be looking for other options; I think Joyner should start thinking about
what to plant in the garden next summer. ADDENDUM: Joyner has been dealt to Atlanta, where he will apparently be a backup in case Galarraga can't come back. If the Braves can win with truly awful hitters like Ozzie Guillen in their lineup, then I guess Joyner can find a home there. |
| KERRY LIGTENBERG (29, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A-AA 3 4 45 0 0 0 17 40 41 16 78 450 |
| He came out of nowhere (actually, the Northern League) to become Atlanta's closer, then missed all of 1999 with arm surgery. With respect to his chances of coming back, your guess is as good as mine. He will probably pitch well when he gets back, either in 2000 or 2001. If Ligtenberg wants to regain the closer's job, he will have to hope that Rocker self-destructs, which isn't impossible. |
| KEITH LOCKHART (IF, 35, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 96 147 41 5 3 6 25 32 14 17 279 337 476 0 0 1998 ATL 109 366 94 21 0 9 50 37 29 37 257 311 388 2 2 1999 ATL 108 161 42 3 1 1 20 21 19 21 261 337 311 3 1 |
| Lockhart is a pretty good utility man, a lifetime .275 hitter who plays all over the field. He will be back for more of the same in 2000. |
| GEORGE LOMBARD (OF, 25, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 131 462 122 25 7 14 65 72 66 145 264 365 439 35 7 1998 AA 122 422 130 25 4 22 84 65 71 140 308 410 543 35 5 1999 AAA 74 233 48 11 3 7 25 29 35 98 206 317 369 21 6 |
| Lombard looked like a terrific prospect in 1998, but last year slumped badly at Richmond. He was probably hurt; I expect that he will make a comeback and play well, and could be on the Braves' roster by mid-season. He has the potential to be a quality player down the road. |
| JAVIER LOPEZ (CA, 29, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 123 414 122 28 1 23 52 68 40 82 295 361 534 1 1 1998 ATL 133 489 139 21 1 34 73 106 30 85 284 328 540 5 3 1999 ATL 65 246 78 18 1 11 34 45 20 41 317 375 533 0 3 |
| Lopez tore up his knee in mid-season, prematurely ending what could have been his best season. He is one of the best catchers in baseball, a power hitter who is in his prime, and is still improving. If he is healthy, look for him to be back among the best in the game in 2000. |
| GREG MADDUX (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ATL 19 4 33 33 5 2 0 233 200 20 177 220 1998 ATL 18 9 34 34 9 5 0 251 201 45 204 222 1999 ATL 19 9 33 33 4 0 0 219 258 37 136 357 |
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He had his worst year in ten years, which is to say that that
was some decade. Lots of great pitchers have off-years in their
early thirties, then rebound to win another Cy Young Award (see
Roger Clemens); I expect Maddux will continue to struggle with 18-
19 wins a year for a couple more years before he regains his Cy
Young form. Maddux now has 221 career wins. If he averages 12 wins a year from now on, he will reach 300 by the time he is forty. If he averages 15 wins a year, he get there a year and a half sooner. If he averages 20 wins a year... hell, you can do the math yourself. |
| KEVIN MCGLINCHY (23, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 3 7 26 26 0 0 0 140 145 39 113 490 1998 A 9 8 22 22 1 0 0 142 122 29 129 291 |
| This is the guy who lost that marathon playoff game against the Mets. Apart from that, his record is sensational. He was a great starter in A-ball in 1998, and was very effective in Atlanta's bullpen last year. He is very young; I'm not sure what role the Braves have in mind for him, but there is every reason to believe that he has an outstanding future ahead of him. |
| RAFAEL MEDINA (25, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AAA 4 5 13 13 0 0 0 67 90 39 50 756 1998 AAA 4 2 11 9 3 1 0 58 53 26 41 390 |
| Medina is yet another pitcher whom the Marlins rushed to the majors a couple of seasons ago, and who is completely clueless on the mound. He might have some ability, but he needs to improve his control, and have some experience with success. He has been acquired by the Braves, and I think that is a great career move; he likely will start the year in their bullpen, and could have a surprisingly good year. |
| KEVIN MILLWOOD (25, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ATL 5 3 12 8 0 0 0 51 55 21 42 403 1998 ATL 17 8 31 29 3 1 0 174 175 56 163 408 1999 ATL 18 7 33 33 2 0 0 228 168 59 205 268 |
| I've got nothing new to say. Millwood is a brilliant young pitcher who will win multiple Cy Young Awards if he stays healthy. |
| TERRY MULHOLLAND (37, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CHC-SF 6 13 40 27 1 0 0 187 190 51 99 424 1998 CHC 6 5 70 6 0 0 3 112 100 39 72 289 1999 CHC-ATL 10 8 42 24 0 0 1 170 201 45 83 439 |
| Mulholland was back in the starting rotation last season, and pitched fairly well. At his age, you know he doesn't have long left; if I were his manager I would want him back in the bullpen, where he pitched brilliantly in 1998. |
| EDDIE PEREZ (CA, 32, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 73 191 41 5 0 6 20 18 10 35 215 259 335 0 1 1998 ATL 61 149 50 12 0 6 18 32 15 28 336 404 537 1 1 1999 ATL 104 309 77 17 0 7 30 30 17 40 249 299 372 0 1 |
| Perez got lots of playing time after Lopez' injury. He was okay, but is much better suited to 150-200 at bats a season. A quality backup, and Greg Maddux' personal catcher. |
| ODALIS PEREZ (22, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 4 5 36 0 0 0 5 87 67 27 100 165 1998 AA-AAA 7 7 36 23 0 0 3 156 153 60 165 387 |
| His minor league record is outstanding, and he is still very young. Perez may have been overmatched at the major league level last season, but he didn't embarrass himself. He looks like he will be a brilliant pitcher in the future, and he is with the right organization. |
| MIKE REMLINGER (34, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CIN 8 8 69 12 2 0 2 124 100 60 145 414 1998 CIN 8 15 35 28 1 1 0 164 164 87 144 482 1999 ATL 10 1 73 0 0 0 1 84 66 35 81 237 |
| Acquired by the Braves in the trade that sent Neagle to Cincinnati, Remlinger is another example of how a good team and a good manager can revitalize a pitcher's career. Remlinger has always been able to pile on the strikeouts, but came into his own as a pitcher last year. Expect more success in 2000. |
| JOHN ROCKER (25, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 5 6 22 18 0 0 0 113 119 61 96 486 |
| After struggling as a starter in the lower minors, Rocker was moved to the bullpen at Richmond in 1998, and began pitching brilliantly. Last year he was the Braves' closer, and continued to pitch brilliantly. Barring injury, there is every reason to expect that he will pitch brilliantly for the next ten years. He's also somewhat nuts, but that doesn't mean he can't close games. |
| REGGIE SANDERS (RF, 32, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 86 312 79 19 2 19 52 56 42 93 253 347 510 13 7 1998 CIN 135 481 129 18 6 14 83 59 51 137 268 346 418 20 9 1999 SD 133 478 136 24 7 26 92 72 65 108 285 376 527 36 13 |
| Sanders had one of his best years last season, despite continuing problems with injuries. He has now been dealt to Atlanta, where he will get a chance to shine in the limelight. Sanders has a lot of talent, and is a fine player when he plays, but at age 32 it is unlikely that he is going to start putting some healthy seasons together. Expect another good year in 2000, with 20-30 homers, probably not so many stolen bases. |
| RANDALL SIMON (1B, 25, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 133 519 160 45 1 14 62 102 17 76 308 335 480 1 6 1998 AAA 126 484 124 20 1 13 52 70 24 62 256 292 382 4 4 |
| Simon had a dreadful 1998 season, but last year got some playing time with the Braves after Galarraga went down. He saved his career by hitting .317, but I'm still not crazy about him. I don't think he is going to develop much power, and he will have trouble hitting .300 consistently. He doesn't walk much. I doubt that he will be an impact player. |
| JOHN SMOLTZ (33, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ATL 15 12 35 35 7 2 0 256 234 63 241 302 1998 ATL 17 3 26 26 2 2 0 167 145 44 173 290 1999 ATL 11 8 29 29 1 1 0 186 168 40 156 319 |
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Smoltz has struggled with injuries the past two seasons, but is still
a magnificent pitcher. He may never lead the league in innings again,
but he should remain valuable for several more year in a limited David
Cone-type role. ADDENDUM: Smoltz has opted to have surgery on his arm, and will miss the season. My expectations remain the same for him when he returns in 2001. |
| QUILVIO VERAS (2B, 29, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SD 145 539 143 23 1 3 74 45 72 84 265 357 328 33 12 1998 SD 138 517 138 24 2 6 79 45 84 78 267 373 356 24 9 1999 SD 132 475 133 25 2 6 95 41 65 88 280 368 379 30 17 |
| He hits for a decent average, and he gets on base, and that's a good combination for a light-hitting infielder. If Veras was a good base stealer he could be a formidable player, but at the moment he is not. He's about average. |
| WALT WEISS (SS, 36, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 COL 121 393 106 23 5 4 52 38 66 56 270 377 384 5 2 1998 ATL 96 347 97 18 2 0 64 27 59 53 280 386 343 7 1 1999 ATL 110 279 63 13 4 2 38 29 35 48 226 315 323 7 3 |
| He was good in 1998, but was bad last year. Weiss will have to hit better to extend his career beyond this season; during the World Series I heard constant praise for his defense, but you and I both know there are two dozen guys in the minors who are just as good, and who are aching for a chance to prove it. |