ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS


      The Diamondbacks won the West, in only their second year of existence. I think they are the first team ever to make the playoffs without producing a single good young player of their own; everyone was either a free agent or was acquired in a trade. They were as lucky as they were good; who could have predicted 38 homers from Jay Bell or 200 hits from Luis Gonzalez? But they also had an awesome veteran bench, and they acquired Matt Mantei when they needed him.
     I don't think the future is that bright. They are very old, and a number of last year's overachievers may struggle. To survive, the Diamondbacks need Randy Johnson to stay healthy, and they need either Erubiel Durazo or Travis Lee or both to have big seasons. The West is not a strong division, and the DBacks still might be the best of the bunch.

 
BRIAN ANDERSON (28, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     CLE   4   2   8  8  0  0  0  48  55  11  22 469

 1998     ARI  12  13  32 32  2  1  0 208 221  24  95 433

 1999     ARI   8   2  31 19  2  1  1 130 144  28  75 457


 
      The Diamondbacks spent a bundle on free-agents, and Anderson got left out of the starting rotation. He ended up pitching after Stottlemyre got hurt, and wasn't awful. Has excellent control, and can do better than he has to this point.

 
ROD BARAJAS (CA, 25, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997       A  57 199  53 11  0  7  24  30   8  41  266 297 427   1   0

 1998       A 113 442 134 26  0 23  67  81  25  81  303 345 518   1   1

 1999      AA 127 510 162 41  2 14  77  95  24  73  318 354 488   2   0


 
      Barajas is a big catcher in the Diamondbacks' system who has hit fairly well in the low minors. He played in five games with Arizona, and hit his first big-league home run. I don't think he has stardom in his future; he has moved very slowly through the minors, and doesn't have good command of the strike zone. But if he can catch, he should hit enough to hold down a job.

 
JAY BELL (2B, 34, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      KC 153 573 167 28  3 21  89  92  71 101  291 368 461  10   6

 1998     ARI 155 549 138 29  5 20  79  67  81 129  251 353 432   3   5

 1999     ARI 151 589 170 32  6 38 132 112  82 132  289 374 557   7   4


 
      Using complex mathematical methods, I have computed the probability of Bell hitting 38 homers in a season to be roughly the same as that of Mars colliding with Pluto. This is, after all, the same guy who once laid down 39 sacrifice bunts for Jim Leyland in a season. Though I guess it isn't any stranger than Davey Johnson hitting 43 home runs in a season.
      Bell has been a good player for a long time, and last year was an MVP candidate. Using the same methods mentioned above, I think the probability of Bell hitting 38 homers two years in a row is roughly the same as that of Mars colliding with Pluto two years in a row... but Bell should have a good year, and hit around 20-25 home runs.

 
BRAD CLONTZ (29, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     ATL   5   1  51  0  0  0  1  48  52  18  42 375

 1998  LA-NYM   2   0  20  0  0  0  0  24  19  12  16 608

 1999     PIT   1   3  56  0  0  0  2  49  49  24  40 274


 
      Clontz had a fine year in Pittsburgh, and re-established himself as a solid middle reliever. He's good in his limited role, and shouldn't try to do anything more. He also has a habit of following good years with bad ones.

 
GREG COLBRUNN (1B, 31, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997 MIN-ATL  98 271  76 17  0  7  27  35  10  49  280 309 421   1   2

 1998 COL-ATL  90 166  51 11  2  3  18  23  10  34  307 361 452   4   3

 1999     ARI  67 135  44  5  3  5  20  24  12  23  326 392 519   1   1


 
      A guy managers love, Colbrunn can bat only a few times a season and still stay sharp. Last year, he was an invaluable member of the Diamondbacks' awesome bench. Still has at least a couple more good seasons left; he could also bat more often than he did last year, though I wouldn't want him to be a regular.

 
OMAR DAAL (28, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997 MON-TOR   2   3  41  3  0  0  1  57  82  21  44 706

 1998     ARI   8  12  33 23  3  1  0 162 146  51 132 288

 1999     ARI  16   9  32 32  2  1  0 215 188  79 148 365


 
      Daal hit rock bottom in 1997, when he posted a 9.79 ERA with Montreal. He has pitched very well the last two years, though; in view of his age, and his fine K/BB ratio, his success should continue.

 
DAVE DELLUCCI (OF, 26, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      AA 107 385 126 29  3 20  71  55  58  69  327 419 574  11   -


1998 ARI 124 416 108 19 12 5 43 51 33 103 260 318 399 3 5 1999 ARI 63 109 43 7 1 1 27 15 11 24 394 463 505 2 0

 
      An intriguing player. Dellucci was a regular in 1998; he led the NL in triples, but didn't play well over all. Last year he was part of the Diamondbacks' great bench, and tore the cover off the ball. Obviously, a .394 batting average will get him so more playing time; my guess is, he can thrive with 250-300 at bats a season, but shouldn't be a regular.

 
ERUBIEL DURAZO (1B, 26, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1999  AA-AAA  94 344 139 25  3 24  80  83  58  55  404 490 703   3   1


1999 ARI 52 155 51 4 2 11 31 30 26 43 329 422 594 1 1

 
      Durazo emerged from the Mexican League like King Kong storming through the forest. He kicked Travis Lee off first base, and appears to have a stranglehold on the job. I have no idea what to expect from Durazo in the future, but I won't be surprised if he hits 40 homers this year.

 
STEVE FINLEY (CF, 35, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997      SD 143 560 146 26  5 28 101  92  43  92  261 313 475  15   3

 1998      SD 159 619 154 40  6 14  92  67  45 103  249 301 401  12   3

 1999     ARI 156 590 156 32 10 34 100 103  63  94  264 336 525   8   4


 
      Finley's been in the league for 11 years now; his first seven years, he hit a total of 47 home runs, and stole 185 bases. The past four years, Finley has hit 106 homers, and stolen 57 bases. Some quick addition shows that he now has 153 career home runs; he is not, in my opinion, a good bet to hit 200, but these are strange times we are living in.

 
ANDY FOX (IF, 29, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA  97 318  87 11  4  6  66  33  54  64  274 379 390  28   -


1998 ARI 139 502 139 21 6 9 67 44 43 97 277 355 396 14 7 1999 ARI 99 274 70 12 2 6 34 33 33 61 255 351 380 4 1

 
      What you see is what you get: Fox is a .270-range hitter who will draw some walks, run a bit, and hit the occasional home run. He is an adequate shortstop, can play every day or be a backup.

 
HANLEY FRIAS (SS, 26, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA 132 484 128 17  4  5  64  46  56  72  264 340 347  35  15

 1998     AAA  63 253  73 10  4  1  32  21  24  41  289 346 372  16   7


1999 ARI 69 150 41 3 2 1 27 16 29 18 273 391 340 4 3

 
      Frias is an OK shortstop who draws walks. Will be a backup in 2000.

 
BERNARD GILKEY (OF, 34, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     NYM 145 518 129 31  1 18  85  78  70 111  249 338 417   7  11

 1998 NYM-ARI 111 365  85 15  0  5  41  33  43  80  233 320 315   9   3

 1999     ARI  94 204  60 16  1  8  28  39  29  42  294 379 500   2   2


 
      After two years of decline, Gilkey was a key member of the Diamondbacks' wonderful bench in 1999. He's finished as a regular, but should have a couple of good years left as a spare outfielder.

 
LUIS GONZALEZ (LF, 33, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     HOU 152 550 142 31  2 10  78  68  71  67  258 345 376  10   7

 1998     DET 154 547 146 35  5 23  84  71  57  62  267 340 475  12   7

 1999     ARI 153 614 206 45  4 26 112 111  66  63  336 403 549   9   5


 
      Gonzalez has always looked like he should be a good hitter; he makes contact, has good strike zone judgment, and has line drive power. It never amounted to much until last season; for years now, he's been about as average a hitter as you kind find.
      When a player exceeds all reasonable expectations, it is difficult to predict what he will do in the future; at this point in his career, I find it hard to believe that Gonzalez can play at or near the same level as he did last year. Something will happen, an early slump, or maybe a broken thumb; it always does with these one-year wonders.

 
LENNY HARRIS (IF, 35, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     CIN 120 238  65 13  1  3  32  28  18  18  273 327 374   4   3

 1998 CIN-NYM 132 290  75 15  0  6  30  27  17  21  259 300 372   6   5

 1999     ARI 110 187  58 13  0  1  17  20   6   7  310 330 396   2   1


 
      Harris now has 12 years of service under his belt, and obviously isn't going to quit after a .310 batting average. He is a valuable utility man who can play all over the field and contribute at the plate. His next off-year will probably end his career.

 
DARREN HOLMES (34, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     COL   9   2  42  6  0  0  3  89 113  36  70 534

 1998     NYY   0   3  34  0  0  0  2  51  53  14  31 333

 1999     ARI   4   3  44  0  0  0  0  49  50  25  35 370


 
      Holmes is a fine middle reliever who pitched very well for five seasons in Colorado. Last he year he was good with Arizona; he has no chance to ever be a closer again, but for now is very solid in his role.

 
RANDY JOHNSON (36, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     SEA  20   4  30 29  5  2  0 213 147  77 291 228

 1998 SEA-HOU  19  11  34 34 10  6  0 244 203  86 329 328

 1999     ARI  17   9  35 35 12  2  0 272 207  70 364 248


 
      He was the best pitcher in the National League, but his record suffered due to lack of run support. Fortunately for Johnson, some of his losses received a lot of attention (including a 1-0 loss on a no-hitter by Jose Jiminez), and he was able to win his second Cy Young Award without a great won-loss record. He is obviously one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball history; though he probably won't win 200 games, I suspect he will easily gain entrance to the Hall Of Fame. He is getting older, but is still incredibly strong; I expect that he has at least two more big seasons left.

 
BYUNG-HYUN KIM (21, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1999  AA-AAA   6   0  21  3  0  0  1  51  27  24  72 228


1999 ARI 1 2 25 0 0 0 1 27 20 20 31 461

 
      Kim is a very young pitcher who was dominating everywhere he went last year. It may take him a couple of seasons to harness his control, but otherwise he looks like a brilliant prospect. He should spend the season in middle relief, get himself established before taking the closer's job.

 
DANNY KLASSEN (SS, 25, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1998     ARI  29 108  21  2  1  3  12   8   9  33  194 263 315   1   1


1997 AA 135 519 172 30 6 14 112 81 48 104 331 396 493 16 9 1999 AAA 64 245 66 16 3 6 38 33 20 51 269 325 433 5 3

 
      Klassen had a trial with the Diamondbacks in 1998. He hit poorly, and was back in the minors last season. He's an ordinary prospect; his big 1997 season was at El Paso, where lots of players put up big numbers. Klassen will likely play a few years in the majors, probably not as a regular.

 
TRAVIS LEE (1B, 25, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA  59 227  68 16  2 14  42  46  31  46  300 387 573   2   0


1998 ARI 146 562 151 20 2 22 71 72 67 123 269 346 429 8 1 1999 ARI 120 375 89 16 2 9 57 50 58 50 237 337 363 17 3

 
      He has proven his ability to steal bases, but I'm not sure if that's what the Diamondbacks were looking for. Lee is a tremendously talented young hitter who will probably burst forth with a big season... but if he doesn't, his future will be in some doubt. He's not a young pup anymore.

 
MATT MANTEI (27, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1998     FLO   3   4  42  0  0  0  9  54  38  23  63 296

 1999 FLO-ARI   1   3  65  0  0  0 32  65  44  44  99 276


 
      Mantei is a young flame-thrower who had a terrific season closing games for Florida and Arizona. I like everything about him except his control; he will probably improve that, and even if he doesn't he is still awesome. Should be among the best closers in the game for the next ten years.

 
DAMIAN MILLER (CA, 30, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     MIN  25  66  18  1  0  2   5  13   2  12  273 282 379   0   0

 1998     ARI  57 168  48 14  2  3  17  14  11  43  286 337 446   1   0

 1999     ARI  86 296  80 19  0 11  35  47  19  78  270 316 446   0   0


 
      The Diamondbacks spend a lot of money, but though they also make some smart moves. Miller was taken in the expansion draft from Minnesota, where his career was going nowhere. He has played very well the past seasons, and is a quality platoon player. He has little chance of ever being an everyday player, but in his role Miller is a valuable player. More of the same in 2000.

 
LUIS ORDAZ (IF, 25, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1998     STL  57 153  31  5  0  0   9   8  12  18  203 261 235   2   0


1999 AAA 107 362 103 25 4 1 31 45 24 40 285 328 384 3 4

 
      A young utility infielder, Ordaz has no power, doesn't walk, and doesn't steal bases. His only chance to have a career is to consistently hit around .280, which he might do.

 
VINCE PADILLA (23, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1999       A   4   1   9  9  0  0  0  51  50  17  55 373

 1999     AAA   7   4  18 14  0  0  0  94 107  24  58 375


 
      Last year was Padilla's first in pro ball. He pitched very well, and got into five games with the Diamondbacks. He probably needs another season in the minors before entering the rotation. Looks good.

 
DAN PLESAC (38, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     TOR   2   4  73  0  0  0  1  50  47  19  61 358

 1998     TOR   4   3  78  0  0  0  4  50  41  16  55 378

 1999 TOR-ARI   2   4  64  0  0  0  1  44  50  17  53 589


 
      Plesac had almost identical seasons with Toronto in 1997 and 1998. Last year, he got off to a horrible start with the Jays, and was dealt to Arizona to shore up their bullpen. Plesac pitched much better with the Diamondbacks, and will probably be back with someone in 2000. His strikeout rate was exceptional in 1999; despite his age, I expect he has another solid year left.

 
DANTE POWELL (OF, 27, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     AAA 108 452 109 19  5 14  91  67  52 105  241 319 398  34  10

 1998     AAA 134 448 103 17  3 14  83  52  71 138  230 335 375  41   9

 1999     AAA  51 187  62 14  2  7  29  30  14  38  332 381 540  22   6


 
      Powell had a hot streak at Tucson last season, the first time he has ever hit well in his life. I'm not impressed, and I don't really think he is going to have a career. His speed could get him a job as a spare outfielder.

 
ARMANDO REYNOSO (34, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     NYM   6   3  16 16  1  1  0  91  95  29  47 453

 1998     NYM   7   3  11 11  0  0  0  68  64  32  40 382

 1999     ARI  10   6  31 27  0  0  0 167 178  67  79 437


 
      Reynoso is a veteran journeyman, has pitched well every year since 1993. He is getting older, and his innings are usually limited by injuries, but he can help a team by making a few starts. I would not expect him to make more than 20 starts this season.

 
RUSS SPRINGER (31, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     HOU   3   3  54  0  0  0  3  55  48  27  74 423

 1998 ARI-ATL   5   4  48  0  0  0  0  52  51  30  56 410

 1999     ATL   2   1  49  0  0  0  1  47  31  22  49 342


 
      Springer has been around for years as a long reliever/spot starter, but has only started to pitch well after joining the Braves. All of his numbers -hits, walks, strikeouts, ERA- were good. He has moved on to Arizona, will have to prove he can pitch without Bobby Cox as his manager.

 
KELLY STINNETT (CA, 30, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1998     ARI  92 274  71 14  1 11  35  34  35  74  259 353 438   0   1

 1999     ARI  88 284  66 13  0 14  36  38  24  83  232 302 426   2   1


 
      Stinnett has more power than the average catcher, but his batting average was down last season; his lifetime average is only .237, so we shouldn't expect much more than that. He hits lefties much better than right-handers, and should probably be used in a more limited role.

 
TODD STOTTLEMYRE (35, R)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     STL  12   9  28 28  0  0  0 181 155  65 160 388

 1998 STL-TEX  14  13  33 33  3  0  0 221 214  81 204 374

 1999     ARI   6   3  17 17  0  0  0 101 106  40  74 409


 
      He had surgery on his arm midway through the season, but managed to come back and pitch well. It's almost impossible to believe that Stottlemyre is now 35 years old, but it's a fact; his best years have come late in his career. In view of Stottlemyre's recent injury problems, and the fact that he was never all that good in the first place, I doubt his career will last much longer.

 
GREG SWINDELL (35, L)

 YEAR    TEAM  WN  LS  GP GS CG SH SV  IP HIT  BB  SO ERA

 1997     MIN   7   4  65  1  0  0  1 116 102  25  75 358

 1998 MIN-BOS   5   6  81  0  0  0  2  90  92  31  63 359

 1999     ARI   4   0  63  0  0  0  1  65  54  21  51 251


 
      He keeps going, and going... Swindell was once a very good starter for the Indians, and now is a very good reliever. He was great last year for the Diamondbacks. Apart from his age, there is nothing in Swindell's record that suggests he is about to decline.

 
MATT WILLIAMS (3B, 34, R)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     CLE 151 596 157 32  3 32  86 105  34 108  263 307 488  12   4

 1998     ARI 135 510 136 26  1 20  72  71  43 102  267 327 439   5   1

 1999     ARI 154 627 190 37  2 35  98 142  41  93  303 344 536   2   0


 
      Had a terrific comeback season, after a pair of years of decline. Williams now has 334 lifetime homers, has also hit .300 on three occasions in his career, which is a little surprising. His average will probably drop to the .270-range this season, but otherwise he should continue to play well.

 
TONY WOMACK (RF/IF, 31, L)

 YEAR      TM  GM  AB  HT DB TP HR RUN RBI  BB  SO  AVG OBA SLU  SB  CS

 1997     PIT 155 641 178 26  9  6  85  50  43 109  278 326 374  60   7

 1998     PIT 159 655 185 26  7  3  85  45  38  94  282 319 357  58   8

 1999     ARI 144 614 170 25 10  4 111  41  52  68  277 332 370  72  13


 
      Tony doesn't hit for a high average, doesn't get on base much, has no power, and doesn't have a defensive position. Those are some big negatives. His positives are that he is durable, and is an exceptional base stealer. I'm still not a big fan of him; he's an average player at best. But he has a job, so expect more of the same next year.