ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
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The Diamondbacks won the West, in only their second year of existence.
I think they are the first team ever to make the playoffs without producing
a single good young player of their own; everyone was either a free agent
or was acquired in a trade. They were as lucky as they were good; who
could have predicted 38 homers from Jay Bell or 200 hits from Luis Gonzalez?
But they also had an awesome veteran bench, and they acquired Matt Mantei
when they needed him. I don't think the future is that bright. They are very old, and a number of last year's overachievers may struggle. To survive, the Diamondbacks need Randy Johnson to stay healthy, and they need either Erubiel Durazo or Travis Lee or both to have big seasons. The West is not a strong division, and the DBacks still might be the best of the bunch. |
| BRIAN ANDERSON (28, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CLE 4 2 8 8 0 0 0 48 55 11 22 469 1998 ARI 12 13 32 32 2 1 0 208 221 24 95 433 1999 ARI 8 2 31 19 2 1 1 130 144 28 75 457 |
| The Diamondbacks spent a bundle on free-agents, and Anderson got left out of the starting rotation. He ended up pitching after Stottlemyre got hurt, and wasn't awful. Has excellent control, and can do better than he has to this point. |
| ROD BARAJAS (CA, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 57 199 53 11 0 7 24 30 8 41 266 297 427 1 0 1998 A 113 442 134 26 0 23 67 81 25 81 303 345 518 1 1 1999 AA 127 510 162 41 2 14 77 95 24 73 318 354 488 2 0 |
| Barajas is a big catcher in the Diamondbacks' system who has hit fairly well in the low minors. He played in five games with Arizona, and hit his first big-league home run. I don't think he has stardom in his future; he has moved very slowly through the minors, and doesn't have good command of the strike zone. But if he can catch, he should hit enough to hold down a job. |
| JAY BELL (2B, 34, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 KC 153 573 167 28 3 21 89 92 71 101 291 368 461 10 6 1998 ARI 155 549 138 29 5 20 79 67 81 129 251 353 432 3 5 1999 ARI 151 589 170 32 6 38 132 112 82 132 289 374 557 7 4 |
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Using complex mathematical methods, I have computed the probability of
Bell hitting 38 homers in a season to be roughly the same as that of Mars colliding
with Pluto. This is, after all, the same guy who once laid down 39 sacrifice
bunts for Jim Leyland in a season. Though I guess it isn't any stranger than
Davey Johnson hitting 43 home runs in a season. Bell has been a good player for a long time, and last year was an MVP candidate. Using the same methods mentioned above, I think the probability of Bell hitting 38 homers two years in a row is roughly the same as that of Mars colliding with Pluto two years in a row... but Bell should have a good year, and hit around 20-25 home runs. |
| BRAD CLONTZ (29, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ATL 5 1 51 0 0 0 1 48 52 18 42 375 1998 LA-NYM 2 0 20 0 0 0 0 24 19 12 16 608 1999 PIT 1 3 56 0 0 0 2 49 49 24 40 274 |
| Clontz had a fine year in Pittsburgh, and re-established himself as a solid middle reliever. He's good in his limited role, and shouldn't try to do anything more. He also has a habit of following good years with bad ones. |
| GREG COLBRUNN (1B, 31, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MIN-ATL 98 271 76 17 0 7 27 35 10 49 280 309 421 1 2 1998 COL-ATL 90 166 51 11 2 3 18 23 10 34 307 361 452 4 3 1999 ARI 67 135 44 5 3 5 20 24 12 23 326 392 519 1 1 |
| A guy managers love, Colbrunn can bat only a few times a season and still stay sharp. Last year, he was an invaluable member of the Diamondbacks' awesome bench. Still has at least a couple more good seasons left; he could also bat more often than he did last year, though I wouldn't want him to be a regular. |
| OMAR DAAL (28, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MON-TOR 2 3 41 3 0 0 1 57 82 21 44 706 1998 ARI 8 12 33 23 3 1 0 162 146 51 132 288 1999 ARI 16 9 32 32 2 1 0 215 188 79 148 365 |
| Daal hit rock bottom in 1997, when he posted a 9.79 ERA with Montreal. He has pitched very well the last two years, though; in view of his age, and his fine K/BB ratio, his success should continue. |
| DAVE DELLUCCI (OF, 26, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA 107 385 126 29 3 20 71 55 58 69 327 419 574 11 - |
| An intriguing player. Dellucci was a regular in 1998; he led the NL in triples, but didn't play well over all. Last year he was part of the Diamondbacks' great bench, and tore the cover off the ball. Obviously, a .394 batting average will get him so more playing time; my guess is, he can thrive with 250-300 at bats a season, but shouldn't be a regular. |
| ERUBIEL DURAZO (1B, 26, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1999 AA-AAA 94 344 139 25 3 24 80 83 58 55 404 490 703 3 1 |
| Durazo emerged from the Mexican League like King Kong storming through the forest. He kicked Travis Lee off first base, and appears to have a stranglehold on the job. I have no idea what to expect from Durazo in the future, but I won't be surprised if he hits 40 homers this year. |
| STEVE FINLEY (CF, 35, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 SD 143 560 146 26 5 28 101 92 43 92 261 313 475 15 3 1998 SD 159 619 154 40 6 14 92 67 45 103 249 301 401 12 3 1999 ARI 156 590 156 32 10 34 100 103 63 94 264 336 525 8 4 |
| Finley's been in the league for 11 years now; his first seven years, he hit a total of 47 home runs, and stole 185 bases. The past four years, Finley has hit 106 homers, and stolen 57 bases. Some quick addition shows that he now has 153 career home runs; he is not, in my opinion, a good bet to hit 200, but these are strange times we are living in. |
| ANDY FOX (IF, 29, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 97 318 87 11 4 6 66 33 54 64 274 379 390 28 - |
| What you see is what you get: Fox is a .270-range hitter who will draw some walks, run a bit, and hit the occasional home run. He is an adequate shortstop, can play every day or be a backup. |
| HANLEY FRIAS (SS, 26, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 132 484 128 17 4 5 64 46 56 72 264 340 347 35 15 1998 AAA 63 253 73 10 4 1 32 21 24 41 289 346 372 16 7 |
| Frias is an OK shortstop who draws walks. Will be a backup in 2000. |
| BERNARD GILKEY (OF, 34, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 NYM 145 518 129 31 1 18 85 78 70 111 249 338 417 7 11 1998 NYM-ARI 111 365 85 15 0 5 41 33 43 80 233 320 315 9 3 1999 ARI 94 204 60 16 1 8 28 39 29 42 294 379 500 2 2 |
| After two years of decline, Gilkey was a key member of the Diamondbacks' wonderful bench in 1999. He's finished as a regular, but should have a couple of good years left as a spare outfielder. |
| LUIS GONZALEZ (LF, 33, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 HOU 152 550 142 31 2 10 78 68 71 67 258 345 376 10 7 1998 DET 154 547 146 35 5 23 84 71 57 62 267 340 475 12 7 1999 ARI 153 614 206 45 4 26 112 111 66 63 336 403 549 9 5 |
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Gonzalez has always looked like he should be a good hitter; he makes
contact, has good strike zone judgment, and has line drive power. It never amounted
to much until last season; for years now, he's been about as average a hitter
as you kind find. When a player exceeds all reasonable expectations, it is difficult to predict what he will do in the future; at this point in his career, I find it hard to believe that Gonzalez can play at or near the same level as he did last year. Something will happen, an early slump, or maybe a broken thumb; it always does with these one-year wonders. |
| LENNY HARRIS (IF, 35, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CIN 120 238 65 13 1 3 32 28 18 18 273 327 374 4 3 1998 CIN-NYM 132 290 75 15 0 6 30 27 17 21 259 300 372 6 5 1999 ARI 110 187 58 13 0 1 17 20 6 7 310 330 396 2 1 |
| Harris now has 12 years of service under his belt, and obviously isn't going to quit after a .310 batting average. He is a valuable utility man who can play all over the field and contribute at the plate. His next off-year will probably end his career. |
| DARREN HOLMES (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 COL 9 2 42 6 0 0 3 89 113 36 70 534 1998 NYY 0 3 34 0 0 0 2 51 53 14 31 333 1999 ARI 4 3 44 0 0 0 0 49 50 25 35 370 |
| Holmes is a fine middle reliever who pitched very well for five seasons in Colorado. Last he year he was good with Arizona; he has no chance to ever be a closer again, but for now is very solid in his role. |
| RANDY JOHNSON (36, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SEA 20 4 30 29 5 2 0 213 147 77 291 228 1998 SEA-HOU 19 11 34 34 10 6 0 244 203 86 329 328 1999 ARI 17 9 35 35 12 2 0 272 207 70 364 248 |
| He was the best pitcher in the National League, but his record suffered due to lack of run support. Fortunately for Johnson, some of his losses received a lot of attention (including a 1-0 loss on a no-hitter by Jose Jiminez), and he was able to win his second Cy Young Award without a great won-loss record. He is obviously one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball history; though he probably won't win 200 games, I suspect he will easily gain entrance to the Hall Of Fame. He is getting older, but is still incredibly strong; I expect that he has at least two more big seasons left. |
| BYUNG-HYUN KIM (21, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1999 AA-AAA 6 0 21 3 0 0 1 51 27 24 72 228 |
| Kim is a very young pitcher who was dominating everywhere he went last year. It may take him a couple of seasons to harness his control, but otherwise he looks like a brilliant prospect. He should spend the season in middle relief, get himself established before taking the closer's job. |
| DANNY KLASSEN (SS, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 ARI 29 108 21 2 1 3 12 8 9 33 194 263 315 1 1 |
| Klassen had a trial with the Diamondbacks in 1998. He hit poorly, and was back in the minors last season. He's an ordinary prospect; his big 1997 season was at El Paso, where lots of players put up big numbers. Klassen will likely play a few years in the majors, probably not as a regular. |
| TRAVIS LEE (1B, 25, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 59 227 68 16 2 14 42 46 31 46 300 387 573 2 0 |
| He has proven his ability to steal bases, but I'm not sure if that's what the Diamondbacks were looking for. Lee is a tremendously talented young hitter who will probably burst forth with a big season... but if he doesn't, his future will be in some doubt. He's not a young pup anymore. |
| MATT MANTEI (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1998 FLO 3 4 42 0 0 0 9 54 38 23 63 296 1999 FLO-ARI 1 3 65 0 0 0 32 65 44 44 99 276 |
| Mantei is a young flame-thrower who had a terrific season closing games for Florida and Arizona. I like everything about him except his control; he will probably improve that, and even if he doesn't he is still awesome. Should be among the best closers in the game for the next ten years. |
| DAMIAN MILLER (CA, 30, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 MIN 25 66 18 1 0 2 5 13 2 12 273 282 379 0 0 1998 ARI 57 168 48 14 2 3 17 14 11 43 286 337 446 1 0 1999 ARI 86 296 80 19 0 11 35 47 19 78 270 316 446 0 0 |
| The Diamondbacks spend a lot of money, but though they also make some smart moves. Miller was taken in the expansion draft from Minnesota, where his career was going nowhere. He has played very well the past seasons, and is a quality platoon player. He has little chance of ever being an everyday player, but in his role Miller is a valuable player. More of the same in 2000. |
| LUIS ORDAZ (IF, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 STL 57 153 31 5 0 0 9 8 12 18 203 261 235 2 0 |
| A young utility infielder, Ordaz has no power, doesn't walk, and doesn't steal bases. His only chance to have a career is to consistently hit around .280, which he might do. |
| VINCE PADILLA (23, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1999 A 4 1 9 9 0 0 0 51 50 17 55 373 1999 AAA 7 4 18 14 0 0 0 94 107 24 58 375 |
| Last year was Padilla's first in pro ball. He pitched very well, and got into five games with the Diamondbacks. He probably needs another season in the minors before entering the rotation. Looks good. |
| DAN PLESAC (38, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 TOR 2 4 73 0 0 0 1 50 47 19 61 358 1998 TOR 4 3 78 0 0 0 4 50 41 16 55 378 1999 TOR-ARI 2 4 64 0 0 0 1 44 50 17 53 589 |
| Plesac had almost identical seasons with Toronto in 1997 and 1998. Last year, he got off to a horrible start with the Jays, and was dealt to Arizona to shore up their bullpen. Plesac pitched much better with the Diamondbacks, and will probably be back with someone in 2000. His strikeout rate was exceptional in 1999; despite his age, I expect he has another solid year left. |
| DANTE POWELL (OF, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 108 452 109 19 5 14 91 67 52 105 241 319 398 34 10 1998 AAA 134 448 103 17 3 14 83 52 71 138 230 335 375 41 9 1999 AAA 51 187 62 14 2 7 29 30 14 38 332 381 540 22 6 |
| Powell had a hot streak at Tucson last season, the first time he has ever hit well in his life. I'm not impressed, and I don't really think he is going to have a career. His speed could get him a job as a spare outfielder. |
| ARMANDO REYNOSO (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 NYM 6 3 16 16 1 1 0 91 95 29 47 453 1998 NYM 7 3 11 11 0 0 0 68 64 32 40 382 1999 ARI 10 6 31 27 0 0 0 167 178 67 79 437 |
| Reynoso is a veteran journeyman, has pitched well every year since 1993. He is getting older, and his innings are usually limited by injuries, but he can help a team by making a few starts. I would not expect him to make more than 20 starts this season. |
| RUSS SPRINGER (31, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 HOU 3 3 54 0 0 0 3 55 48 27 74 423 1998 ARI-ATL 5 4 48 0 0 0 0 52 51 30 56 410 1999 ATL 2 1 49 0 0 0 1 47 31 22 49 342 |
| Springer has been around for years as a long reliever/spot starter, but has only started to pitch well after joining the Braves. All of his numbers -hits, walks, strikeouts, ERA- were good. He has moved on to Arizona, will have to prove he can pitch without Bobby Cox as his manager. |
| KELLY STINNETT (CA, 30, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 ARI 92 274 71 14 1 11 35 34 35 74 259 353 438 0 1 1999 ARI 88 284 66 13 0 14 36 38 24 83 232 302 426 2 1 |
| Stinnett has more power than the average catcher, but his batting average was down last season; his lifetime average is only .237, so we shouldn't expect much more than that. He hits lefties much better than right-handers, and should probably be used in a more limited role. |
| TODD STOTTLEMYRE (35, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 STL 12 9 28 28 0 0 0 181 155 65 160 388 1998 STL-TEX 14 13 33 33 3 0 0 221 214 81 204 374 1999 ARI 6 3 17 17 0 0 0 101 106 40 74 409 |
| He had surgery on his arm midway through the season, but managed to come back and pitch well. It's almost impossible to believe that Stottlemyre is now 35 years old, but it's a fact; his best years have come late in his career. In view of Stottlemyre's recent injury problems, and the fact that he was never all that good in the first place, I doubt his career will last much longer. |
| GREG SWINDELL (35, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 MIN 7 4 65 1 0 0 1 116 102 25 75 358 1998 MIN-BOS 5 6 81 0 0 0 2 90 92 31 63 359 1999 ARI 4 0 63 0 0 0 1 65 54 21 51 251 |
| He keeps going, and going... Swindell was once a very good starter for the Indians, and now is a very good reliever. He was great last year for the Diamondbacks. Apart from his age, there is nothing in Swindell's record that suggests he is about to decline. |
| MATT WILLIAMS (3B, 34, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CLE 151 596 157 32 3 32 86 105 34 108 263 307 488 12 4 1998 ARI 135 510 136 26 1 20 72 71 43 102 267 327 439 5 1 1999 ARI 154 627 190 37 2 35 98 142 41 93 303 344 536 2 0 |
| Had a terrific comeback season, after a pair of years of decline. Williams now has 334 lifetime homers, has also hit .300 on three occasions in his career, which is a little surprising. His average will probably drop to the .270-range this season, but otherwise he should continue to play well. |
| TONY WOMACK (RF/IF, 31, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 PIT 155 641 178 26 9 6 85 50 43 109 278 326 374 60 7 1998 PIT 159 655 185 26 7 3 85 45 38 94 282 319 357 58 8 1999 ARI 144 614 170 25 10 4 111 41 52 68 277 332 370 72 13 |
| Tony doesn't hit for a high average, doesn't get on base much, has no power, and doesn't have a defensive position. Those are some big negatives. His positives are that he is durable, and is an exceptional base stealer. I'm still not a big fan of him; he's an average player at best. But he has a job, so expect more of the same next year. |
