TORONTO BLUE JAYS


     I thought that the Blue Jays should have been in the playoffs last season; the only good thing you can say about underachieving teams is that they sometimes break through a year later. This year, they are entering spring training with a real manager and a real closer and the lineup is very solid and the defence is better. The pitching staff has some puffy elbows and stiff necks and creaky lower backs, and that is a concern, but they still probably have more upside than any other staff in the American League. There is also a big question mark in the outfield, where no one knows who the centre fielder will be or what Raul Mondesi will do. I expect another playoff run in 2000.

JOHN BALE (26, L)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 A 7 7 25 25 0 0 0 140 130 63 155 430
1998 A 4 5 24 9 0 0 4 66 68 23 78 464
1999 AA-AAA 2 5 39 8 0 0 1 85 80 26 101 381

      Bale is a big left-hander who pitched one game for the Blue Jays last year. He has good control and gets lots of strikeouts, but for some reason he is unable to dominate hitters like you would expect. He will probably spend most of 2000 in the minors, but pitchers with his K/BB ratio usually end up being pretty good.

TONY BATISTA (SS, 26, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 OAK 68 188 38 10 1 4 22 18 14 31 202 265 330 2 2
1998 ARI 106 293 80 16 1 18 46 41 18 52 273 318 519 1 1
1999 ARI-TOR 142 519 144 30 1 31 77 100 38 96 277 329 518 4 0

      After washing out with Oakland in 1997, Batista got a chance with Arizona in 1998, and crushed the ball for half a season. The Diamondbacks weren't impressed, and he started 1999 on the bench. He was then traded to the Blue Jays in June for Dan Plesac, and for four months hit like Johnny Bench.
      Batista has the most gawdawful batting stance of any player in the game today; this, combined with his mediocre command of the strike zone, makes you feel uncomfortable about his future. He is a solid defensive shortstop, so as long as he hits for power, he will be one of the better players at the position. He may improve his K/W ratio, and if he does I will believe in him a little more.
      He may also move to third base, to help fill a hole for the Blue Jays when Alex Gonzalez returns. If he does, there will be more pressure on him to hit. I'm interested to see how he performs in the future.

CASEY BLAKE (3B, 27, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 A 129 449 107 21 0 7 56 39 48 91 239 319 332 19 9
1998 A 88 340 119 28 3 11 62 65 30 81 350 409 547 9 6
1999 AAA 110 387 95 16 2 22 69 75 61 82 245 357 468 9 5

      Blake also had a few at bats with the Blue Jays last season. He has some power, and is reportedly a very fine defensive player. He had a terrific year with the bat in 1998, but otherwise has not been a good hitter. He is too old to be considered a prospect. Might hook up with a team in a backup role, but his chances of having a significant career are very small.

PEDRO BORBON (32, L)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 ATL DID NOT PITCH
1998 ATL DID NOT PITCH
1999 LA 4 3 70 0 0 0 1 51 39 29 33 409

      Borbon missed a couple of years with injury, then came back and set a career high in games pitched. He has now been traded to Toronto, where he will get as much work as he wants. Borbon is a good pitcher; if he is healthy, his control should improve, and he will have a good year. But anytime a pitcher misses two full years after surgery, he's never a sure thing.

HOMER BUSH (2B, 27, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 AAA 112 430 111 20 4 5 61 40 32 96 258 310 358 17 8
1998 NYY 45 71 27 3 0 1 17 5 5 19 380 421 465 6 3
1999 TOR 128 485 155 26 4 5 69 55 21 82 320 353 421 32 8

      Homer got his escape from the Yankee system, and an everyday job with the Blue Jays. He made the most of his opportunity; he's basically a guy who can run and catch the ball, but a .320 average won't hurt his career. Bush is a free swinger, and I doubt that he can hit .300 consistently, but he should be able to bat around .280, and steal some bases. A solid player for the next five years, if he can stay healthy.

CHRIS CARPENTER (25, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 TOR 3 7 14 13 1 1 0 81 108 37 55 509
1998 TOR 12 7 33 24 1 1 0 175 177 61 136 437
1999 TOR 9 8 24 24 4 1 0 150 177 48 106 438

      Was one of the best pitchers in the AL for most of the season, but was slowed by injuries. Carpenter missed time in mid-season with soreness in his arm; he was finally shut down in September and had his arm scoped for bone chips, the final nail in the Blue Jay's coffin in 1999.
      From what I understand, bone chips aren't as bad as torn tissue. If Carpenter is healthy this year, he promises to be one of the best pitchers in the league. Throws hard, throws a good curve, and knows what to do with his stuff. The Jays will depending on him, but he's got to stay healthy.

ALBERTO CASTILLO (CA, 30, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 NYM 35 59 12 1 0 0 3 7 9 16 203 304 220 0 1
1998 NYM 38 83 17 4 0 2 13 7 9 17 205 290 325 0 2
1999 STL 93 255 67 8 0 4 21 31 24 48 263 326 341 0 0

      Castillo has been hanging around a few years as a backup catcher, and last year got some significant at bats. He was decent, and should keep his job for another four or five years.

MARTY CORDOVA (LF, 31, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 MIN 103 378 93 18 4 15 44 51 30 92 246 305 434 5 3
1998 MIN 119 438 111 20 2 10 52 69 50 103 253 333 377 3 6
1999 MIN 124 425 121 28 3 14 62 70 48 96 285 365 464 13 4

      The Rookie Of The Year in 1995, Cordova saved his career with a solid season. He is injury-prone, and was mostly a DH last year. He's a decent hitter, but doesn't do anything exceptionally well. Will probably plod along in the DH role for a few more years, and won't do anything exciting.

JOSE CRUZ JR (CF, 26, S)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 SEA-TOR 104 395 98 19 1 26 59 68 41 117 248 315 499 7 2
1998 TOR 105 352 89 14 3 11 55 42 57 99 253 354 403 11 4
1999 TOR 106 349 84 19 3 14 63 45 64 91 241 358 433 14 4

      Cruz had almost the exact same season that he had in 1998, including another demotion to the minors. He is a talented hitter, and his K/BB ratio is steadily improving; he just seems to be having trouble driving the ball when he gets a good pitch to hit.
      The Blue Jays claim that they haven't given up on him, but you have to wonder when two different managers decide that he isn't worth the trouble, and farm him out. I suspect that Cruz will be an All-Star some day, but I can't say where or when that will be. I doubt it will be in a Toronto uniform.

CARLOS DELGADO (1B, 28, L)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 TOR 153 519 136 42 3 30 79 91 64 133 262 350 528 0 3
1998 TOR 142 530 155 43 1 38 94 115 73 139 292 385 592 3 0
1999 TOR 152 573 156 39 0 44 113 134 86 141 272 377 571 1 1

      He is one of the scariest power hitters in baseball, and is in the middle of his prime years. I still think Delgado can do better; he hits left-handers hard, but for some reason lets himself get overpowered by righties. He is also prone to deep slumps, often coupled with blazing hot streaks. He also had a miserable year in the field, committing 14 errors.
      I don't think Delgado has had his best year yet. Now that Griffey is out of the league, he is probably the best bet to lead the AL in homers. He can win an MVP Award.

KELVIM ESCOBAR (24, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 TOR 3 2 27 0 0 0 14 31 28 19 36 290
1998 TOR 7 3 22 10 0 0 0 79 72 35 72 373
1999 TOR 14 11 33 30 1 0 0 174 203 81 129 569

      The Blue Jays (and others) were expecting big things from him. Instead, he struggled most of the season, and was even sent to the bullpen for a brief time. Late in the year he had a "dead arm", one of those vague quasi-medical terms that could mean anything.
      Escobar doesn't appear to have anything seriously wrong with his arm, and remains a valuable property. He's very young, has great stuff, and has a history success, three rarities in baseball these days. The Blue Jays will be patient; hell, Bob Gibson stunk the joint out until he was 25.

DARRIN FLETCHER (CA, 33, L)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 MON 96 310 86 20 1 17 39 55 17 35 277 323 513 1 1
1998 TOR 124 407 115 23 1 9 37 52 25 39 283 328 410 0 0
1999 TOR 115 412 120 26 0 18 48 80 26 47 291 339 485 0 0

      Fletcher suffered a freak accident in May; during batting practice, he lined a ball off of the batting cage in Seattle, and it bounced back and struck him in the eye. He missed a month of the season, but otherwise had his best year at the plate. He doesn't throw very well, and he is very slow, and he hits into too many double plays... but this is true of most catchers. As long as Fletcher hits, he will have a job, and he will be very valuable.

JOHN FRASCATORE (30, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 STL 5 2 59 0 0 0 0 80 74 33 58 248
1998 STL 3 4 69 0 0 0 0 95 95 36 49 414
1999 ARI-TOR 8 5 59 0 0 0 1 70 73 21 37 373

      Frascatore was 7-1 after he was traded to the Blue Jays. He has pitched well for three straight years now, and is among the better middle relievers in the league. Good control, no chance to move to a different role.

BRAD FULLMER (1B, 25, L)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 MON 19 40 12 2 0 3 4 8 2 7 300 349 575 0 0
1998 MON 140 505 138 44 2 13 58 73 39 70 273 327 446 6 6
1999 MON 100 347 96 34 2 9 38 47 22 35 277 321 464 2 3

      Fullmer is a good young line drive hitter with power potential. His sophomore season was disappointing, but it also wasn't too bad. He can hit; I see Fullmer hitting over .300 this year with a lot of doubles. If he turns into a home run hitter, it probably won't be for another couple of seasons.
     ADDENDUM: Fullmer has been dealt to Toronto, where he will likely be the everyday DH. Good move.

ALEX GONZALEZ (SS, 27, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 TOR 126 426 102 23 2 12 46 35 34 94 239 302 387 15 6
1998 TOR 158 568 136 28 1 13 70 51 28 121 239 281 361 21 6
1999 TOR 38 154 45 13 0 2 22 12 16 23 292 370 416 4 2

      In the past he has been a very good defensive player, and a dreadful hitter. Last year, he was great for six weeks, before a shoulder injury put him out for the entire season.
      He will be back with Toronto in 2000, and the Blue Jays will be anxious to see if he can continue his improvement at the plate. Despite Batista's big year, Gonzalez will get every chance to be the everyday shortstop; the only worry is that he might lose strength in his throwing arm because of the injury. My guess is that he will hit about .260, with a better K/BB ratio than he has had in the past.

CRAIG GREBECK (IF, 35, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 ANA 63 126 34 9 0 1 12 6 18 11 270 359 365 0 1
1998 TOR 102 301 77 17 2 2 33 27 29 42 256 327 346 2 2
1999 TOR 34 113 41 7 0 0 18 10 15 13 363 443 425 0 0

      Grebeck has been a quality backup infielder for years now, and obviously was again last year. He missed much of the year with injuries, but if they are healed he should play well again next year. Should only get between 100-200 at bats in a season; if he gets too many (like in 1998), his weaknesses start to show up.

ROY HALLADAY (23, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 AA-AAA 9 13 29 29 2 2 0 162 178 64 94 477
1998 AAA 9 5 21 21 1 1 0 116 107 53 71 379
1999 TOR 8 7 36 18 1 1 1 149 156 79 82 392

      One of the Blue Jay's three oustanding young starters, Halladay spent much of the season in middle relief, but finished very strong in the rotation. He really has no idea of what he is doing on the mound, as demonstrated by his ugly K/BB ratio, but his great stuff enabled him to post a fine ERA anyway. Very young, and figures to improve in leaps and bounds. Unlike Carpenter and Escobar, he was not rushed to the majors, and has had no arm problems to date. A very valuable property; if things go according to plan, will be an All-Star within five years.

JOEY HAMILTON (30, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 SD 12 7 31 29 1 0 0 193 199 69 124 425
1998 SD 13 13 34 34 0 0 0 217 220 106 147 427
1999 TOR 7 8 22 18 0 0 0 98 118 39 56 652

      He had some good starts in mid-season, but was awful the rest of the year. Hamilton had arm problems all year, and was never able to get over them, leaving his future in some doubt. If he is healthy, he is a good pitcher. On the other hand, he is clearly not the kind of pitcher who is going to have much success if he loses something off his fastball. He is also a lot heavier than you would like him to be. The Blue Jays still owe him 12 million dollars, so he will get every chance to make a comeback.

BILLY KOCH (25, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1998 A 14 7 25 25 0 0 0 125 120 41 108 375
1999 TOR 0 5 56 0 0 0 31 64 55 30 57 339

      The Blue Jays #1 pick a few years back, Koch disappeared off of the radar screen when he had reconstructive surgery in 1997. He suddenly reappeared last year, throwing consistently over 100 mph, and saving 31 games for Toronto. His recovery has been dubbed as miraculous, but with any luck will become more commonplace in the future.
      As for Koch, he's young, he throws hard, he's competitive, and he's the closer. What more do you want? If he stays healthy, he should be really good.

RAUL MONDESI (RF, 29, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 LA 159 616 191 42 5 30 95 87 44 105 310 360 541 32 15
1998 LA 148 580 162 26 5 30 85 90 30 112 279 316 497 16 10
1999 LA 159 601 152 29 5 33 98 99 71 134 253 332 483 36 9

      He got off to a hot start, then slumped the rest of the season. His summer also included a profanity-laced tirade against his team and his manager, prompting the Dodgers to trade him to Toronto after the season. The Blue Jays will be hoping that Mondesi shows up at spring training with something to prove.
      I've never been a big fan of Mondesi, but I am optimistic about him in 2000. He doubled his walk total last year; his struggles may have been tied in to an attempt to change his approach, and become more selective at the plate. Such changes can take a year or so of adjustment before they start to pay off. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Mondesi has his best season next year. The Skydome is also a much friendlier place for hitters than Dodger Stadium.

PETE MUNRO (25, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 AA 7 10 22 22 1 0 0 116 113 47 109 495
1998 AAA 7 9 26 25 0 0 0 151 169 58 117 507
1999 AAA 6 1 18 11 0 0 0 70 70 33 68 310
1999 TOR 0 2 31 2 0 0 0 55 70 23 38 602

      Munro began the year with Toronto, struggled, and was sent back to Syracuse. He pitched well there; he has a good chance to be a long reliever/fifth starter, and if his control improves a little he could be a solid regular in the rotation. I like him.

LANCE PAINTER (33, L)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 STL 1 1 14 0 0 0 0 17 13 8 11 476
1998 STL 4 0 65 0 0 0 1 47 42 28 39 399
1999 STL 4 5 56 4 0 0 1 63 63 25 56 483

      Painter is a quality left-hander who has had a number of solid seasons for Colorado and St. Louis. His ERA was up last season, but his other numbers were good, and he held lefties to a .222 average. He will have a good season this year.

PAUL QUANTRILL (31, R)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 TOR 6 7 77 0 0 0 5 88 103 17 56 194
1998 TOR 3 4 82 0 0 0 7 80 88 22 59 259
1999 TOR 3 2 41 0 0 0 0 49 53 17 28 333

      After establishing himself as one of the top setup men in the game, Quantrill broke his leg while snowmobiling. He came back in mid-season, and pitched pretty well, perhaps not quite as sharp as he has been. He has a rubber arm, and very good control; he will be good for at least one more year.

ANTHONY SANDERS (OF, 26, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 AA 111 429 114 20 4 26 68 69 44 121 266 335 513 20 12
1998 AAA 60 209 40 9 2 4 23 19 20 65 191 270 311 5 2
1999 AAA 124 496 121 22 5 18 71 59 46 111 244 309 417 18 10

      An outfield prospect with the Blue Jays, Sanders has made no progress as a hitter the past two seasons. He is reportedly a fine defensive player, and has some power and speed, but at the moment he does not hit nearly well enough to deserve a major league job.

SHANNON STEWART (LF, 26, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 TOR 44 168 48 13 7 0 25 22 19 24 286 368 446 10 3
1998 TOR 144 516 144 29 3 12 90 55 67 77 279 377 417 51 18
1999 TOR 145 608 185 28 2 11 102 67 59 83 304 371 411 37 14

      Stewart had another good year, and is solidly established as a middle-class outfielder. His average was up, but he had drops in power, walks, and stolen bases. If he can hold his average over .300, and improve in the other areas, he will be a formidable player. He is still young enough to take another step forward.

DAVID WELLS (37, L)
YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA
1997 NYY 16 10 32 32 5 2 0 218 239 45 156 421
1998 NYY 18 4 30 30 8 5 0 214 195 29 163 349
1999 TOR 17 10 34 34 7 1 0 232 246 62 169 482

      The Boomer was up and down from the start of the season; he still managed to win more than he lost, and pitched reasonably well over all. I suppose we shouldn't have expected any more from a 36-year-old pitcher who is overweight and has little history of consistent success.
      Next year, he will be older, and probably just as heavy. I doubt he'll ever contend for a Cy Young Award again, but his stuff is still good, and he has terrific control. He has also been very durable in the past, but started to have back problems last year. He will probably continue to have those problems, limiting his effectiveness. But he's got a great postseason record, so if he struggles, teams will always be willing to give him another chance.

VERNON WELLS (OF, 21, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 A 66 264 81 20 1 10 52 31 30 44 307 377 504 8 6
1998 A 134 509 145 35 2 11 86 65 49 84 285 348 426 13 8
1999 A 70 265 91 16 2 11 43 43 26 34 343 403 543 13 2
1999 AA-AAA 59 235 76 14 3 7 38 38 22 37 323 376 498 11 3
1999 TOR 24 88 23 5 0 1 8 8 4 18 261 293 352 1 1

      Wells was highly touted as a teenager; last year, at age 20, he had a monster season at three levels of ball, and was Toronto's starting centre fielder at the end of the season. Wells has the potential to win a batting title, also has speed and could develop more power as he grows. He will probably start the year with the Jays, either as the starter in centre or on the bench, depending on what they decide to do with Jose Cruz Jr.

KEVIN WITT (1B, 24, L)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 AA 127 501 145 27 4 30 76 91 44 109 289 349 539 1 0
1998 AAA 126 455 124 20 3 23 71 67 53 124 273 354 481 3 3
1999 AAA 114 421 117 24 3 24 72 71 64 109 278 376 520 0 0

      Witt is a good young hitter, has spent two full years as Syracuse but is still only 24 years old. He can hit; there is no job waiting for him in Toronto, but with luck an opportunity will open up during the season, and he will play well and have a good career.

CHRIS WOODWARD (SS, 24, R)
YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS
1997 A 91 314 92 13 4 1 38 38 52 52 293 397 369 4 8
1998 AA-AAA 98 338 79 18 0 5 45 33 33 67 234 305 331 4 6
1999 AAA 75 281 82 20 3 1 46 20 38 49 292 378 395 4 0
1999 TOR 14 26 6 1 0 0 1 2 2 6 231 276 269 0 0

      Woodward recovered from a disastrous 1998 season to play well at Syracuse. He appears to have some ability at the plate, has good strike zone judgment. Still very young, will likely spend most of the season at Syracuse again. It would be nice if he could put a full season together, so we can decide if he's just a backup or has a chance to be a regular.