CLEVELAND INDIANS
| The Indians have won five straight division titles, but are still scratching their heads about their collapse in the playoffs. They have lost their manager and their closer and their centre fielder (until mid-season), so a quick start will probably be a good morale booster. With Alomar, Ramirez and Thome, the offense will be awesome. The top three starters (Colon, Finley, Burba) are very solid. The bullpen is a bit of a mess, but the Indians are in a weak division, and should be in the playoffs again. |
| ROBERTO ALOMAR (2B, 32, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 BAL 112 412 137 23 2 14 64 60 40 43 333 390 500 9 3 1998 BAL 147 588 166 36 1 14 86 56 59 70 282 347 418 18 5 1999 CLE 159 563 182 40 3 24 138 120 99 96 323 422 533 37 6 |
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He was healthy and happy in Cleveland, and had his first MVP-
calibre season since 1996, maybe the best of his career. His base
stealing was vastly improved, and the walks were way up, despite
the fact he hit in front of Manny Ramirez. What second baseman would you most like to have for the next ten years? The best answer might be Roberto Alomar. True, he'll be 32 next year, but we may see an entirely different Alomar over the next few years. Consider a few case studies: BOBBY GRICH was the premier AL second baseman of the 1970's. Grich had a bit of power, averaging about 13 homers a year. In 1979, at age 30, he exploded for 30 home runs. Two years later, Grich led the AL with 22 homers in a strike-shortened season. He is the only second baseman to lead the AL in home runs since Nap Lajoie in 1901. JOE MORGAN did not have his first 20+ home run season until 1973, at age 30. This was partly due to all the years playing in Houston, of course. Morgan hit a career high 27 homers in 1976, and finished with 268 in his career. RYNE SANDBERG was the NL MVP in 1984. He continued to play well over the next few years, averaging about 18 homers a year. In 1989, at age 30, he hit 30 home runs. The next year, Sandberg led the league with 40. He continued to hit home runs, and finished his career with 282. LOU WHITAKER didn't hit any home runs early in his career; he had one in 477 at bats in 1980. He had his first 20+ homer season in 1985, at age 28. He hit a career-high 28 homers in 1989, age 32, and finished with 244 in his career. See the pattern? The last four really outstanding second basemen before Alomar all developed into power hitters after they turned 30. Alomar hit 20+ home runs for the first time in 1996, age 28. Last year he hit 24. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Alomar pulled a Sandberg, and started hitting 35 home runs a year from now on. Don't believe me? Check out Jay Bell... of course, Robbie will have to stay healthy and happy, which doesn't seem a problem right now. |
| SANDY ALOMAR (CA, 34, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CLE 125 451 146 37 0 21 63 83 19 48 324 354 545 0 2 1998 CLE 117 409 96 26 2 6 45 44 18 45 235 270 352 0 3 1999 CLE 37 137 42 13 0 6 19 25 4 23 307 322 533 0 1 |
| I believe he has now had seven knee operations, and was quoted as saying that the next one will be his last. Obviously, the clock is ticking; Sandy was a fine player in his prime, but I doubt he will ever again be a quality regular catcher. Perhaps he should try his hand at the DH position. |
| JAMES BROWER (27, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 AA 5 12 23 23 1 0 0 140 156 42 103 521 1998 AA 13 5 23 23 2 2 0 156 142 38 91 301 1999 AAA 11 11 27 27 0 0 0 160 164 59 76 473 |
| Incredibly, Brower gave up eight home runs last year with Cleveland in only 26 innings, but won three games and kept his ERA down. He is a warhorse, and has good control, but I doubt that he has much of a future in the big leagues. The equipment just doesn't seem to be there. |
| DAVE BURBA (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CIN 11 10 30 27 2 1 0 160 157 73 131 473 1998 CLE 15 10 32 31 0 0 0 203 210 69 132 411 1999 CLE 15 9 34 34 1 0 0 220 211 96 174 425 |
| Burba is a big guy with good stuff; he's pitching the best ball of his career, and is getting stronger each year. I think he is one of the better pitchers in the league, and could still have a couple of seasons ahead of him where he wins 18-20 games. |
| JOLBERT CABRERA (IF, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AA-AAA 116 362 97 19 4 2 56 23 39 59 268 340 359 20 9 1998 AAA 129 494 157 24 1 10 94 45 68 71 318 412 431 25 15 1999 AAA 71 279 74 13 4 0 44 27 26 43 265 327 341 20 4 |
| Cabrera has been around a while; he spent five years in A-ball before he started his crawl up the organizational ladder. He had a dream season in 1998, but last year was closer to his real ability. He is currently in the Indians' system; he might stick with a major league club as a backup infielder. |
| BARTOLO COLON (25, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CLE 4 7 19 17 1 0 0 94 107 45 66 565 1998 CLE 14 9 31 31 6 2 0 204 205 79 158 371 1999 CLE 18 5 32 32 1 1 0 205 185 76 161 395 |
| Colon is already one of the best pitchers in the league. He is also still very young, and getting stronger and better. If he stays healthy, he has Cy Young Awards in his future. |
| JACOB CRUZ (OF, 27, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 127 493 178 45 3 12 97 95 64 64 361 434 538 18 3 1998 AAA 132 511 158 25 5 31 92 98 59 83 309 389 560 14 8 1999 AAA 54 202 55 7 2 7 29 31 21 39 272 348 431 4 2 |
| Cruz has at times looked like a very good young player, but he is now 27 and has spent four years at Triple-A; in other words, his career is drifting. A hot streak with the Indians last season should get him a job as a fourth outfielder somewhere; he should thrive in that role, but his chance to be a quality regular is slim. |
| SEAN DEPAULA (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 4 5 29 1 0 0 0 71 71 43 75 520 1998 A 3 2 28 1 0 0 1 50 50 18 59 236 1999 A 4 2 23 0 0 0 7 51 36 17 75 228 |
| After spending four years in A-ball, DePaula's career became unstuck, and he zoomed all the way to the majors. He is big, throws hard, and throws strikes; despite his slow progress so far, there doesn't appear to be any reason why DePaula should not succeed in middle relief. |
| EINAR DIAZ (CA, 27, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 109 336 86 18 2 3 40 31 18 34 256 302 348 2 6 1998 AAA 115 415 130 21 3 8 62 63 21 33 313 354 436 3 3 |
| Sandy Alomar's injuries gave Diaz a chance to catch regularly; he was decent. He's athletic, and stole 11 bases last year; he may also hit a few more home runs this year. I don't think he is going to get much better, but he should be solid for a few years. |
| CHUCK FINLEY (37, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 ANA 13 6 25 25 3 1 0 164 152 65 155 423 1998 ANA 11 9 34 34 1 1 0 223 210 109 212 339 1999 ANA 12 11 33 33 1 0 0 213 197 94 200 443 |
| He suffered through a nightmarish season for the Angels, yet still managed to escape with a winning record. He is getting old, but he is still among the more overpowering pitchers in the league, so I guess we have to believe he will be good again next year. Finley has signed on with the Indians, and should be able to win 16-17 games with them. |
| TRAVIS FRYMAN (3B, 31, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 DET 154 595 163 27 3 22 90 102 46 113 274 326 440 16 3 1998 CLE 146 557 160 33 2 28 74 96 44 125 287 340 504 10 8 1999 CLE 85 322 82 16 2 10 45 48 25 57 255 309 410 2 1 |
| Injuries cut into what was an otherwise typical year for him. You know what to expect in 2000; Fryman is a good defensive player with solid power and a decent batting average. He doesn't get on base much, but he looks good batting in the bottom third of Cleveland's lineup. |
| DAVID JUSTICE (LF, 34, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CLE 139 495 163 31 1 33 84 101 80 79 329 418 596 3 5 1998 CLE 146 540 151 39 2 21 94 88 76 98 280 363 476 9 3 1999 CLE 133 429 123 18 0 21 75 88 94 90 287 413 476 1 3 |
| Justice is still an outstanding hitter, but he is getting older, and I will be surprised if he ever bats 500 times in a season again. He will be a valuable player next year in a limited role, but I still don't think it was a good idea to hang on to Justice and trade Brian Giles. |
| SCOTT KAMIENIECKI (36, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 BAL 10 6 30 30 0 0 0 179 179 67 109 401 1998 BAL 2 6 12 11 0 0 0 55 67 26 25 675 1999 BAL 2 4 43 3 0 0 2 56 52 29 39 495 |
| Kamienecki is a veteran pitcher who was able to survive a year in Baltimore's bullpen last season. I doubt that he has another good year left in him. |
| STEVE KARSAY (28, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 OAK 3 12 24 24 0 0 0 133 166 47 92 577 1998 CLE 0 2 11 1 0 0 0 24 31 6 13 592 1999 CLE 10 2 50 3 0 0 1 79 71 30 68 297 |
| He was Toronto's top pitching prospect in the early 1990's, then was dealt to Oakland in 1993 for Rickey Henderson. Karsay promptly had surgery on his arm; since then, he has been drifting along, trying to resurrect his career. Last year, he hit bull's eye. I think he should have continued success; he has good stuff, and he is with a great team. But I would never count on a pitcher with a history of arm problems. |
| KENNY LOFTON (CF, 33, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 ATL 122 493 164 20 6 5 90 48 64 83 333 409 428 27 20 1998 CLE 154 600 169 31 6 12 101 64 87 80 282 371 413 54 10 1999 CLE 120 465 140 28 6 7 110 39 79 84 301 405 432 25 6 |
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Lofton was bothered by leg injuries last season; his base stealing was
reduced, and he lost range in the outfield. He was still a good player, getting
on base and scoring runs. If he is healthy, Lofton is among the best centre
fielders in the league. ADDENDUM: Lofton has had surgery, and is not expected to return until after the All-Star break. |
| TOM MARTIN (30, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 HOU 5 3 55 0 0 0 2 56 52 23 36 209 1998 CLE 1 1 14 0 0 0 0 15 21 3 12 1289 |
| Martin looked good in 1997 with Houston, but lost the last two years to shoulder surgery. He came back at the end of last season to appear in six games with Cleveland; he is probably capable of having another good year in middle relief. |
| JOHN MCDONALD (IF, 26, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 A 130 541 140 27 3 5 77 53 51 75 259 324 348 6 5 1998 AA 132 514 118 18 2 2 68 43 43 61 230 293 284 17 6 1999 AA-AAA 121 463 142 24 1 1 61 51 30 49 307 350 369 13 6 |
| McDonald is a young infielder with Cleveland; last year, he started to hit for the first time. He has no star potential, and there is no place for him to play in Cleveland... but given the opportunity, he could be a decent utility player. |
| CHARLES NAGY (33, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CLE 15 11 34 34 1 1 0 227 253 77 149 428 1998 CLE 15 10 33 33 2 0 0 210 250 66 120 522 1999 CLE 17 11 33 32 1 0 0 202 238 59 126 495 |
| He is not really a very good pitcher anymore, and his records would not look so good with another team. Having said that, last year was actually a small improvement on 1998; he will is durable, and will have another winning season in 2000. |
| ALEX RAMIREZ (OF, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 119 416 119 19 8 11 59 44 24 95 286 329 450 10 5 1998 AAA 121 521 156 21 8 34 94 103 16 101 299 324 566 6 4 1999 AAA 75 305 93 20 2 12 50 50 17 52 305 345 502 5 5 |
| Ramirez plays the same position as Manny Ramirez, and may replace Manny by the end of the year if a trade is made. Alex has power, and can hit .300; he won't be as good a hitter as Manny, but has a good chance to be an All-Star. His only major flaw is lack of patience at the plate, but his K/BB ratio was much improved last season. I like him. |
| MANNY RAMIREZ (RF, 28, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CLE 150 561 184 40 0 26 99 88 79 115 328 415 538 2 3 1998 CLE 150 571 168 35 2 45 108 145 76 121 294 377 599 5 3 1999 CLE 147 522 174 34 3 44 131 165 96 131 333 442 663 2 4 |
| Ramirez has been one of the best hitters in baseball for the past five seasons, and has emerged as a star after driving in 310 runs over the past two seasons. He is fast-tracking towards the Hall Of Fame, and will remain an MVP candidate in 2000. Last I checked, Ramirez had ten career grand slams, almost halfway to Lou Gehrig's record of 21. |
| STEVE REED (34, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 COL 4 6 63 0 0 0 6 62 49 27 43 404 1998 SF-CLE 4 3 70 0 0 0 1 79 56 27 83 308 1999 CLE 3 2 63 0 0 0 0 62 69 20 44 423 |
| Reed is one of the few pitchers...hell, maybe the only pitcher... to have success pitching in Colorado. Last year was something of a disappointment, as he gave up more hits than he should. His control is still good, and I think Reed will be back among the best setup men in the league this year. |
| RICARDO RINCON (30, L) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 PIT 4 8 62 0 0 0 4 60 51 24 71 345 1998 PIT 0 2 60 0 0 0 14 65 50 29 64 291 1999 CLE 2 3 59 0 0 0 0 45 41 24 30 443 |
| Rincon pitched for many years in Mexico, then had two outstanding seasons with Pittsburgh. He was acquired last season by Cleveland, and was a disappointment. He had some elbow soreness that slowed him down, and left-handers got some big hits off of him. He's a good pitcher, but I would be wary of him this season. |
| DAVID RISKE (23, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 A 4 4 39 0 0 0 2 72 58 33 90 225 1998 A 1 1 53 0 0 0 33 54 48 15 67 233 1999 AA-AAA 3 0 46 0 0 0 18 51 19 20 55 123 |
| A young prospect with the Indians, Riske has pitched brilliantly to this point in his career. If he is healthy he will continue to pitch brilliantly in the majors this season. He might be closing games for Cleveland this year. |
| SCOTT SANDERS (31, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 SEA-DET 6 14 47 20 1 1 2 140 152 62 120 586 1998 DET-SD 3 3 26 2 0 0 0 40 57 11 32 736 1999 CHC 4 7 67 6 0 0 2 104 112 53 89 552 |
| A very talented pitcher who doesn't get anybody out, Sanders has had three straight dreadful seasons, and will likely make it four in a row next year. |
| RICHIE SEXSON (1B, 25, R) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1998 CLE 49 174 54 14 1 11 28 35 6 42 310 344 592 1 1 1999 CLE 134 479 122 17 7 31 72 116 34 117 255 305 514 3 3 |
| At the moment, he is a one-dimensional power hitter; apart from his home runs, he doesn't do anything else to help the team. As long as he hits 30 homers a year he will be okay, but I suspect that Sexton will be very inconsistent over the course of his career. He doesn't likely have stardom in his future. |
| PAUL SHUEY (30, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CLE 4 2 40 0 0 0 2 45 52 28 46 620 1998 CLE 5 4 43 0 0 0 2 51 44 25 58 300 1999 CLE 8 5 72 0 0 0 6 82 68 40 103 353 |
| He was super-nasty last year, and was among the better relievers in the league. The Indians have wanted Shuey to be their closer for several years now, but it hasn't happened yet. Their previous closer, Mike Jackson, didn't get the job until he was 33, so Shuey has plenty of time to grow into the role. |
| JUSTIN SPEIER (26, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1998 AAA 3 3 45 0 0 0 12 52 52 19 49 505 |
| Speier is a young pitcher who has moved around a bit; he did not pitch well last year at either Atlanta or Richmond, and hasn't pitched well anywhere over the past three seasons. I think he can do better, but he must be running out of chances. |
| JIM THOME (1B, 30, L) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CLE 147 496 142 25 0 40 104 102 120 146 286 423 579 1 1 1998 CLE 123 440 129 34 2 30 89 85 90 141 293 413 584 1 0 1999 CLE 146 494 137 27 2 33 101 108 127 171 277 426 540 0 0 |
| Thome is, of course, one of the best hitters in baseball. Despite his recent injury problems, and his dropping batting average, and his big strikeout totals, he is still probably the scariest first baseman in the American League. He has problems against left-handers, as you probably know, but is still young, and is definitely capable of busting loose with an MVP season. |
| OMAR VIZQUEL (SS, 33, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 CLE 153 565 158 23 6 5 89 49 57 58 280 347 368 43 12 1998 CLE 151 576 166 30 6 2 86 50 62 64 288 358 372 37 12 1999 CLE 144 574 191 36 4 5 112 66 65 50 333 397 436 42 9 |
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His career is following the same path as Ozzie Smith's did. Vizquel
started out as a good defensive shortstop who couldn't hit his hat size; he
then got traded for Felix Fermin (Smith was traded for Garry Templeton), and
became recognized as the best defensive shortstop in the league, while quietly
emerging as an outstanding hitter as well. Smith is going into the Hall Of Fame; I am hesitant to suggest that Vizquel will follow him, but there are some shortstops in the Hall who weren't any better. |
| ENRIQUE WILSON (IF, 25, S) |
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YEAR TM GM AB HT DB TP HR RUN RBI BB SO AVG OBA SLU SB CS 1997 AAA 118 451 138 20 3 11 78 39 42 41 306 369 437 9 8 1998 AAA 56 221 62 13 0 4 40 23 19 21 281 335 394 8 3 |
| Wilson has been highly touted for some time, and last year got some playing time when Fryman was hurt. He has some obstacles ahead of him; the Indians still have Alomar, Vizquel and Fryman, and they all may stay healthy this year. Also, Wilson has yet to take a step forward as a hitter, and his defense isn't all that great. Will probably stick around for years as a utility player, not likely to ever become a quality regular. |
| JARET WRIGHT (24, R) |
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YEAR TEAM WN LS GP GS CG SH SV IP HIT BB SO ERA 1997 CLE 8 3 16 16 0 0 0 90 81 35 63 438 1998 CLE 12 10 32 32 1 1 0 192 207 87 140 472 1999 CLE 8 10 26 26 0 0 0 134 144 77 91 606 |
| If it wasn't for Wright, the Yankees may have four straight championships by now. But since shutting down the Bombers in the 1997 playoffs, Wright has struggled. Last year, his problems were serious; though Wright is still very young, and capable of busting loose with a big year, I am a little skeptical about his chances at stardom. I think he's more likely to be a Ben McDonald, Todd Stottlemyre-type pitcher, a talented right-hander who eats innings and wins as many games as he loses. |